Sunday, May 10, 2020

Any idea how to get out of this maze?

The number of deaths from coronavirus infection was lower yesterday than the day before, and much lower than 3 May, but the number of new cases was higher. This maybe because of increased testing which is detecting mild cases. "It has been well understood that among various countries responding to the Covid-19 outbreak, India enforced one of the strongest lockdowns at an early phase of case growth. Now, an index created by the University of Oxford quantifies that. The Stringency Index has found that India indeed had one of the strongest lockdown measures in the world -- at a 100 score since March 22." Other countries also had a score of 100 but, "India now has the highest number of cases in this set." When researchers "examined if countries meet four of the six World health Organization's (WHO) recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measure", "India scored 0.7 (below Australia, Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea) because it scored 0 for controlling its cases." Dire predictions of economic contractions started coming in. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 27.4 in April, the lowest score ever. That was nothing. The Services PMI came in at 5.4, almost complete standstill. One week back the government announced a slight easing of the lockdown with the nation divided into red, orange and green zones, with strict restrictions in red zones and much less in green ones. "But the red zones create 43% of GDP, and even with new relaxations will be 50% closed. The orange zones with another 38% of GDP will be 30% closed. Since companies even in orange and green zones require components from red zones, the economic disruption will remain massive," wrote SA Aiyar. India's economy grew 3.9% during the recession in 2008, yet the financial sector has still not recovered. A contraction will be disaster. Migrant workers, who were stuck in cities, have begun to return home in special trains, causing enormous stress for their home states.  "As over 1 lakh (100,000) migrants returned to Bihar on 83 special trains till Sunday, the number of positive coronavirus cases in the state has seen a rise too." Labor intensive sectors like construction and manufacturing cannot restart without labor so Karnataka tried to forcibly detain the migrants by canceling special trains but retreated after an outcry. Now they are being threatened with cuts in pay and disciplinary action if they do not return when ordered. This, after thousands walked hundreds of miles with children to escape starvation when the sudden lockdown stopped their earning. How can authorities treat citizens with such brutal callousness? Because, politicians win elections with handouts with taxpayer money. So a submissive, servile people will obey any order, however repugnant, not to lose their subsistence. It also shows a complete lack of ideas. 

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