Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Should our CEA doubt the US and UK?

"After repeated calls by experts and economists for more fiscal stimulus to kickstart India's stalled economy, PM Modi finally unveiled a Rs 20 lakh crore (Rs 20 trillion) mega package yesterday." "While the Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package is being revealed in parts like the episodes of an intense television serial, and we today have seen only the first episode, we are in no position to present a review of the entire production," wrote an editorial in the Economic Times. "Not all of the Rs 20 trillion constitute extra fiscal expenditure," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariaya. "This is just as well. The medium to long-term impact of adding 10 percentage points to fiscal deficit would not have been pretty. The government would have had to print massive sums of money raising cash in circulation by a very large percentage -- perhaps by as much as 25-30%." "Of the Rs 20-lakh-crore package that Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced to defend the economy against Covid-10 disruptions, fresh support may be only around 60 percent of the offer as it counts the first financial stimulus and liquidity support that Reserve Bank (RBI) has given already, and will overburden bond market, says a report." For comparison, the US passed a $2 trillion stimulus package which would give $1,200 to every person with income of up to $75,000 per year. Those on unemployment benefit will receive an additional $600 per week for 4 months. There was another $484 billion to help small businesses so that they could continue to pay staff. The US economy is nearly 10 times that of India so we could compare with Britain which is of almost equal size. The budget presented by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, son-in-law of Narayan Murthy, will pay 80% of wages, up to a maximum of 2,500 pounds per month, to all those who have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus lockdown. Employees of small industries who fall ill with coronavirus will get sick leave pay for two weeks. However, the Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Indian Government Krishnamurthy Subramanian rubbished these numbers, saying that the UK package is not 15% of GDP but only 3.7%, because it includes loans, and the US package is worth just 6% of GDP and not 10%. Given that logic, the package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman yesterday consists almost entirely of loans and so is worth nothing. What is the point of earmarking Rs 3 trillion for collateral-free loans to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) if they cannot operate because they are in a red zone or because their suppliers are shut. Are they supposed to borrow just to pay employees? Red zones account for 43% of GDP while orange zones account for 38%, wrote SA Aiyar. Any district magistrate can shut down an area if she/he so wishes. Less tax is to be deducted at source (TDS), apparently to give more cash to taxpayers, but that tax will still have to be paid when filing tax return. Smoke and mirrors. Our lot are experts.

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