Thursday, May 31, 2012

For he is an honorable man.

In a letter to the Prime Minister the team working with Anna Hazare, who is agitating for a strong Lok Pal bill to eradicate corruption among politicians and civil servants, have asked for investigation against the Prime Minister and 14 cabinet ministers. They say that according to the Comptroller and Accountant General's report there was a scam in the allocation of coal mines while the Prime Minister was in charge of the coal department. The Prime Minister has responded by saying," The people of India must decide whether the Prime Minister has committed any crime deserving such harsh words." But how, sir? Since the Congress controls all investigating agencies and will not allow a credible investigation how are the people to decide? The people did not elect you as prime minister but you sneaked in through the Rajya Sabha and hang onto your chair by unquestioning loyalty to another person. Also, being elected is not any indication of innocence. Amarmani Tripathi won his assembly seat in UP in 2007 even while he was in prison charged with the murder of Madhumita Shukla who was pregnant with his child. He was convicted in October 2007 and is supposed to be serving a life sentence but has managed to get himself admitted to various government hospitals for 2 months on purely false symptoms. Secondly, you have presided over the 2G, the CWG and other scams amounting to hundreds of billions of rupees. You dismissed them lightly as " coalition dharma " which shows that you are not aware of the difference between dharma and adharma. You have been a civil servant all your life and we know how rotten the civil service in India is. A genuinely honest person cannot survive in the service because he breaks the chain in the distribution of bribe money and is seen as a threat by others. This is not to say that you did anything wrong but if you never objected to rampant crime among your colleagues then surely we have the right to ask why. Finally, the shameless freeloading press built you up to be a World Famous Economist and it is under your guardianship that the economy is on the verge of collapse. Growth rate keeps falling, inflation is in double digits, industrial production is down and the rupee is beginning to resemble toilet paper. You should know that the earlier growth was due to excess liquidity in the west which stimulated our economy but the present sickness is purely your doing because of your irresponsible spending stimulus in 2008 to help the Congress to come back to power so that you could hang on to your miserable chair. Yesterday a man committed suicide in Gujarat because he was unable to feed his family due to rising prices even though he was earning Rs 7000/month, not bad by Indian standards. You say," I will give up my public career " if allegations are true. But it is not about proving anything or about who did what. It is about honor. It is about pride. It is about sharam and izzat. We have not seen any so far.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

They are all in it.

In 2004 Mr YSR Reddy of Congress became the Chief Minister of Andhra. His son, Jaganmohan was denied a seat so he went off to Bangalore in the neighboring state of Karnataka. In 2004 Mr YSR Reddy declared total family assets of Rs 5 million and Rs 918,000 for his son, Jagan. During 2008-9 Mr Jagan paid Rs 292,000 as tax for the entire financial year to April, but in April 2009 he declared financial assets worth Rs 774 million including ancestral property of Rs 210 million. If the property is ancestral why was it not included among his assets previously? Nobody questions a Congress fellow. By May 2011 he declared assets of Rs 3.65 billion plus Rs 413.3 million in the name of his wife, Y Bharti. However, rivals allege that this is just peanuts compared to his actual wealth. Apparently, he has built a palace in Yelahanka on the outskirts of Bangalore worth Rs 4 billion. To build a house you need to register the land and apply for building permission. Surely this would have come to the notice of the Karnataka authorities but nobody uttered a peep. This is especially surprising because Karnataka has a BJP government since May 2008 and BJP is in opposition to the Congress. Jagan amassed his wealth by establishing a string of companies which received money from industrialists who were given land in Andhra by his father, YSR. For instance, former Minister of Excise in Andhra, Mopidevi Venkataramana is in prison because he allocated 24,000 acres of land to a company. He says he was called to YSR's office and told to sign on the deal and could not refuse because YSR had pulled him out of oblivion. Maytas, an infrastructure company promoted by Ramalinga Raju of Satyam fame was given lucrative contracts in Andhra by YSR. Raju " invested " money in a company called Vanpic whose promoter then paid the money into Jagan's company. In another deal one Gali Janardan Reddy was allotted iron mines for captive use meaning he could use the ore only for his steel mill. However, Mining Secretary, T Srilakshmi deleted the words " for captive use " so Gali was able to export iron ore to China for windfall profits. The steel plant was never built and Srilakshmi is now in jail. A sordid story of unlimited greed and accumulation of illicit wealth by a criminal son motivated by the expectation of immunity from any prosecution by a doting politician. So, what is so surprising. All politicians in India stand for elections with the aim of milking the state. The reason why all this is coming out is because Jagan made the mistake of taking on The Family. YSR was killed in September 2009 in a helicopter crash and Jagan wanted to inherit the Chief Minister's chair which was denied by the party chief. He left Congress and formed his own party calling it YSR Congress banking on his father's popularity to protect him against any backlash. Even opposition parties are terrified of going against The Family so that was a fatal miscalculation. All state agencies were unleashed on him and he has been arrested. Outsiders will not believe that the code of the mafia governs our establishment. But Jagan may yet provide us with a glimpse into the dark heart of the evil beast.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Interfere at your peril.

About 108 people, including 32 children, were massacred in the town of Houla in Syria a couple of days ago. A lot of people were shot at close range or had their throats slit showing that much of the killing was done at close quarters and not by tank fire. Western governments, especially the British, have instantly blamed the Syrian government for the killings but Russia has been far more balanced. It is impossible to know what is going on inside Syria. It is true that government forces are shelling civilians but that is because the rebels are using civilians as human shields to launch attacks against the military, a tactic adopted so successfully by the Hezbollah against the Israelis. The propaganda channel, BBC showed a 10 year old boy who talked about how he had witnessed men in uniform killing his mother and sisters. That is no proof as rebels can disguise themselves in army uniforms and a lot of the fighters are deserters from the army anyway. This tactic has been used very effectively by the Taliban who have killed scores of US and NATO soldiers while dressed in uniforms of Afghan police or army. Embroiled in the News International scandal, with a plummeting poll rating and blamed for the double dip recession, David Cameron wants to divert public attention away from the problems at home and prove that he is Thatcher without the handbag. He is already responsible for the deaths of 30,000 civilians in Libya and would be well advised to keep out of Syria. An expensive education at Eton and Oxford and membership of the Bullingdon club does not train you for the complexity of the middle east. Syria is divided by tribes, ethnicity and religion and enmities can often last for centuries. Already a previously unknown group, linked to the Al Qaeda, Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant have claimed responsibility for bombings which have killed scores of people. These people are quite capable of taking advantage of confusion to commit ghastly massacres for their own ends. Removing the Assad regime may precipitate a civil war which will surely draw in Lebanon and may spread to Turkey, Iraq and Israel. Meanwhile, the supreme mass murderer, Tony Blair appeared before the Leveson Enquiry yesterday. Looking fit and well and dressed in a beautiful bespoke suit he eloquently defended his proximity to Murdoch and News International. He is after all a trained lawyer. A protester managed to get into the enquiry room and accused him of mass murder but he was completely unfazed. There was no reason for him to support the illegal invasion of Iraq based on lies about WMDs other than he desperately wanted to be Bush's poodle. By conservative estimate 106,769-116,633 civilians were killed in that war and resulted in the London bus bombings on July 7, 2005. It is unconscionable that Mladic and Charles Taylor are being tried for crimes against humanity while this evil villain is enjoying life. Maybe one day both Cameron and Blair will be sitting side by side in some courtroom facing justice. We can only hope.

Monday, May 28, 2012

Economics for the dumb.

In 1977 China instituted its one-child policy. This prevented 400 million extra births till today which, in turn, led to large numbers of women joining the labor force bringing down labor costs for industry. In the 70s the Yuan was 2.46 to the dollar rising to 1.5 in 1980. By 1994 China devalued the Yuan to 8.62 and pegged it at 8.27 to the dollar from 1997-2005. This gave an enormous cost advantage to exports and created vast numbers of jobs pulling millions out of poverty. To keep the Yuan weak China bought dollars and US government securities building up foreign currency reserves in excess of $3 trillion. This kept interest rates low in the US while cheap Chinese goods subdued inflation leading Americans to indulge in higher spending financed by debt. China did not embark on any social programs choosing, instead, to focus on building infrastructure. A new power plant went up every week, wide new roads, modern railways and airports which, in turn, created millions of jobs and underpinned its economy. Now that the economy has matured the Chinese are slowing growth, which still remains above 8%, to keep inflation in check. CPI in April was 3.4% while it was 9.47% in India. Low interest rates in the US and the Eurozone led to easy money some of which came into India. The Sensex touched 21,078 on January 2008 and property prices zoomed by 800%. The government took the credit saying that this was due to its policies since India is not an export economy but depends on internal consumption for growth. Hence high economic growth must be due to people becoming richer. Someone came up with the label BRIC in which India was the letter I. Numerous photo ops showed the World Famous Economist with world leaders with that self satisfied smirk on his face. Believing in their own hot air about future projections of growth at 9% the government embarked on expensive social programs. Instead of reducing taxes and subsidies, which would have reduced expenditure, the government decided on direct money transfer to the poor in the form of MNREGA scheme which pays Rs 162/day for 100 days per year to rural people. This immediately caused rural wage inflation leading to food inflation. Instead of a vigorous campaign to reduce population they lauded the " demographic dividend " of so many young people joining the work force. Trouble was that 90% of these were poorly qualified paper graduates who were unemployable. Wages in the IT industry has been rising at greater than 10% because of paucity of good quality candidates. Instead of spending on education infrastructure like improving school buildings, books, computers and broadband salaries of government school teachers was increased by 80%. However, they are of low standard and do not work so children remain poorly educated. India is now facing falling growth at below 7%, inflation at 10%, falling rupee, which feeds inflation, and reduced consumption leading to reduced tax collection. Unable to keep deficit in check the government has raised taxes and levied new taxes on every activity. This will further raise prices and reduce consumption. So clueless are they that they are arguing with Fitch and S&P for a raise in credit rating when everyone is warning of stagflation. You would think that to grab power these people would be intelligent. Not morons.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Damn red is everywhere.

Bengal Chief Minister, Ms Mamata Banerjee passionately hates anything to do with the Communist Party of India ( Marxist ), CPM including the color red. In an interview with Simon Denyer of the Washington Post she has claimed that the CPM, along with the Marxists ( Naxals ) and the ISI of Pakistan, was plotting to kill her, financed by North Korea, Venezuela and Hungary. " They have given me the death sentence, and everyday they are spreading this message via a superimposed photo on Facebook, on the internet or email under some false, camouflaged name," she told Denyer. To erase any reminder of the CPM she has spent the first year of government in getting all official buildings painted blue. Unfortunately, her office is in Writers Building, so named because the underwriters of the British East India Company used to sit there. Writers Building is made of red blocks. Unable to paint such a historic building blue she has got blue lights installed all round the building so that it will look blue at least at night. Recently Hilary Clinton got a warm welcome in Kolkata possibly because Democrats are blue in the US while Republicans are red. Watch out Romney. It is commendable that she has chosen to remain single to prevent the possibility of any man presenting her with red roses. If I were the CPM I would present her with a red rose everyday and watch her paint it blue. Trouble is, red is not so easy to be rid of. For thousands of years Hindu women have used Sindur or vermilion on their foreheads as a mark of their married status and it is doubtful that they will agree to use blue even if threatened by Trinamul goons. The Goddess Durga always wears a red sari and her worship is never complete without 108 blood red hibiscus flowers. Bengali women wear a white sari with bright red borders when they visit a temple or engage in worship of the Goddess. Every day begins with a red sunrise and ends with a red sunset. Possibly, Ms Banerjee could avoid both events by wearing blue shades. However, what is she going to do about her own blood which is sure to be, well, blood red. She may be a brahmin but there is no evidence that she is blue blooded. Are we to understand that for all her bluster she is really a CPM sympathiser inside? Perhaps it would prudent at this point to get it on record that yours truly is not a commie and has never visited Pakistan, Venezuela or Hungary although a friend is married to a Hungarian lady doctor. Is that incriminating enough to be painted blue?

Saturday, May 26, 2012

A chaotic mix of explosives.

Although not shy of acting as the world's policeman the US has most prudently kept out of the impending civil war in Syria. It is possible that Obama and Hilary Clinton are too intelligent to get mixed up in this ethnic and religious chaos. Syria is 90% Muslim of whom Sunni are 74%, Alawi 12%, Druze 3%. The Alawis, who are a Shia sect rule the country and hold most of the powerful positions in government. The 10% Christians are a mix of Arabs, Assyrians and Armenians. To the west, in Lebanon Muslims are 57% of whom Shia are 30-41%, Sunni 30% and Druze 5%. Christians in Lebanon are 39-43% of whom Maronites are 21%, Greek Orthodox 8% and others 4%. To the north is Turkey where Muslims are 98%, majority of whom are Sunni and 15-20 million Alawi. Christians are just 80,000 and Jews 26,000 but 15-18% of people in Turkey are Kurds who, though Muslims, are agitating for a separate homeland. To the south, Iraq has 95% Muslim of whom 65% are Shia and 35% Sunni. Christians and others make up the rest 5%. Also to the south, Jordan is 92% Muslim who are mainly Sunni, with some Druze and Bahai, and 6% Christians. A lot of Jordanians are of Palestinian origin whose entire 15 member political bureau, including chief, Khaled Mashal, lives in Damascus in Syria. Initially the Turkish Prime Minister, Erdogan was very vocal against Assad, wanting military intervention and to establish a humanitarian corridor to supply assistance, to refugees but has gone awfully quiet recently. On February 13, Syrian government forces captured 19 French soldiers in Bab Amr in Homs. Paris negotiated a backdoor release for the soldiers and french journalists embedded with Syrian rebels. HT online, April 19. Turkey tried hard to release 49 soldiers captured inside Syria but failed. Syria has also allowed the Kurds to open 2 offices in the north of the country promising trouble for Turkey if it gets too aggressive. In Lebanon, Sheikh Ahmed Abdul-Wahid, a Sunni Muslim cleric opposed to Assad was shot dead at an army checkpoint on May 23 leading to a firefight between Sunni groups for and against Assad in Tripoli killing about 15 people. Lebanese Shia pilgrims, returning from Iran, were kidnapped by unknown people inside Syria which led to a fight between Shias and Sunnis in Tripoli. The pilgrims were handed over to Turkish authorities. If all this sounds as absolute nonsense it is because no one can understand any of it, even people living in the region. Add to this madness Saudi Arabia and Qatar supporting Sunni groups while Iran supports Shia groups such as the Hezbollah in Lebanon whose chief, Hasan Nasrallah has been calling for calm, and it resembles a conglomeration of lunatics. However, all these people are one God fellows with the same God, the God of Abraham. Yet they will happily kill each other forever. And they call us Hindus heathens and kafirs.

Friday, May 25, 2012

The middle class is the enemy.

Petrol prices have been increased by Rs 7.50 to Rs 79/lit in India. The official lie, repeated by the freeloading press ad nauseum, is that petrol is subsidised. International oil prices have been falling recently. On May 23, West Texas Intermediate Crude was selling at $ 89.90, down more than $10 a barrel. Pump prices in the US are around Rs 52/lit which includes tax at 14%. So why does the Congress persist in the lie that petrol is subsidised? Because the Congress sees the middle class as its enemy. Everything the Congress does is guided by 2 facts - 1. To rise in the party you must be an invertebrate, creepy crawly lickspittle, ready to sink to any level or commit any crime in your worship of The Family as Mr Sajjan Kumar is alleged to have done when inciting a mob to kill Sikhs in 1984. 2. This inevitably means that they fear and hate the middle class who are educated and despise all politicians including the Congress. To penalise the middle class the Congress has been passing laws restricting freedom of the internet, increasing cost of school education and reducing standards of the IITs and medical education. The Right to Education Act forces private schools to reserve 25% of seats for poor children, which will be partially compensated by the government, and means that other children will have to pay much higher fees to compensate. This is a sly, underhand and immoral tax on the middle class. Yet strangely the Supreme Court upheld the Act on April 13, 2012. No citizen can comment about our judges for fear of the most severe punishment but the London Tribunal has no such fears. In 1989 Coal India Ltd, a government company, entered into an agreement with White Industries Australia Ltd for supply of equipment and development of a coal mine in UP. Disputes arose and reached the Supreme Court in 2006 which referred the case to a larger bench where it is still pending. HT online, May 23. The Australians approached the UN Arbitration Tribunal which set up a mutually agreed panel in the London Tribunal. In its judgement the London Tribunal said," ......The Indian judicial system's inability with the issue in over nine years and the Supreme Court's inability to hear the appeal for over five years amounts to delay and constitutes breach of India's obligation." It asked the Indian government to pay Rs 500 million to the Australian firm. This prompted one shocked Rajya Sabha member to term it as an " assault on the independence of the judiciary ". But is the judiciary really free in India? Why lose a nice sinecure after retirement? Previous Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, KG Balakrishnan is still clinging on to the post of Chairman of the National Human Rights Commission despite numerous allegations of corruption against his family. The problem is that eroding the purchasing power of the middle class will reduce company profits and tax collections. However, the Congress is not looking to benefit the country but to somehow win the general elections in 2014. For that to happen the middle class must be suppressed.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

An anniversary of a non event.

The propaganda channel, BBC is devoting an enormous amount of news time to the golden jubilee of Queen Elizabeth as though it has any relevance to today's world. She was born on April 11, 1926 which makes her 86 years old. Even by today's standards that is a pretty advanced age, but she refuses to retire and allow her son to ascend the throne. Her eldest son Charles was born on November 14, 1948, which makes him 63 years old, and has been the Prince of Wales since 1958. From the first he has been trained for the day he will be king and probably does not know any other trade but it looks like he will die a prince and never be allowed to take on the responsibility he was trained for. Living in a palace and waited on hand and foot means that he does not have to engage in any of the activities that occupy ordinary mortals such as getting a job, buying a house, paying taxes or investing for a pension. Imagine spending an entire life doing nothing. When your own mother is your enemy your life will be wasted. Charles was married to Diana Spencer on February 24 1981 and they divorced on August 28, 1996. Princess Diana was given a double apartment in Kensington Palace as part of the divorce settlement. Following divorce she embarked on a string of affairs giving new meaning to the phrase " the butler did it ". She dated Pakistani heart surgeon, Hasnat Khan and then moved on to Dodi Al Fayed, an Egyptian. On August 31, 1997 both Diana and Dodi were killed in a car accident in the Pont de l'Alma road tunnel in Paris while being pursued at speed by paparazzi. The driver of their car was drunk. It was rumored at the time that Diana was pregnant with Dodi's child but this was denied later. Mohamed Al Fayed, father of Dodi, accused MI6 and the Duke of Edinburgh of conspiring to kill his son but has now reconciled to the official version of events. Although we tend to laugh at conspiracy theories it is hard to imagine what would be happening now had she been alive. As mother of Prince William she and her new husband would have been guests of honor at his wedding last year and again at the diamond jubilee celebrations this year. Presumably she would be staying at her apartment in Kensington Palace and it is possible Dodi's relatives would come and stay with them as they attended various sporting events at the Olympics. For the British establishment, full of upper class racist snobs, this would have been unbearable. After all Elizabeth Windsor became queen only because her uncle Edward VIII abdicated to be able to marry a twice divorced American, Wally Simpson. Edward was king from January 20 - December 11, 1936, the shortest period in history, and abdicated his throne because the then Prime Minister, Stanley Baldwin threatened to resign with the entire cabinet if he married Simpson. If the British are so squeamish about a white American imagine what they would feel about hosting a whole bunch of Egyptians. Does not bear thinking about does it? Is it the shadow of the " grassy knoll " all over again?

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

A game of chicken.

Around 75% of Greeks want to stay within the Euro and around 70% of Greeks want to be rid of the austerity program which is part of the bail-out agreement. However, these two desires are mutually exclusive which surely means that a majority of Greeks are bonkers. Alexis Tsipras, leader of the far left party, Syriza is against the austerity program, calling it " barbaric and inhuman ". " It is an experiment - a neo-liberal shock that is driving my country into a humanitarian crisis," he said. His view is that severe reduction in public expenditure is increasing unemployment which is leading to contraction of the economy and the resulting fall in tax collections means that the proportion of debt to GDP will keep on rising. So Greece will be in recession for decades and its people will suffer extreme poverty. He wants austerity to be combined with measures to increase growth creating jobs and increasing revenue collection so that Greece will be able to pay off all its debts. He is daring European leaders to throw Greece out of the Euro. If Greece has to return to the Drachma it will be unable to pay its debts and European banks will suffer. French banks hold 9.36 billion Euros in Greek debt, German banks 7.9 billion, but crucially, Spain holds 746 million Euros in Greek debt and Italy holds 1.15 billion Euros. If Greece collapses there maybe a run on Spanish banks followed by Italy. Tsipras is calculating that this fear of spreading contagion will force European leaders to back down. European leaders, especially Germany, argue that it was irresponsible spending by successive Greek governments that led to the debt burden and so they must be responsible for sorting out the mess they find themselves in. There is a " moral imperative " of not rewarding bad behavior. The older Greek parties, New Democracy Party and PASOK, who together signed the bail-out agreement, are trying to frighten Greek voters by pointing out that if Greece is forced to exit the Euro it will be bankrupt. The Drachma will have no value, Greece will not be able to borrow and, without foreign exchange, will not be able to import vital commodities. Inflation will sky rocket and daily survival will become difficult. Only the tourism sector may benefit as foreigners will be able to afford luxuries they could not afford previously. There is some traction in both points of views. So what will Greeks do? Canny Greeks see their country as a difficult tenant who is refusing to pay his rent but, they argue, Europe will not burn its house down just to evict them. They know that there is enormous pressure on Angela Merkel of Germany to support some sort of growth program. Francois Hollande, the new French President, also wants growth and Obama, facing reelection, does not want a European collapse to trigger a recession in the US just now. They are calculating that if they support Syriza, European leaders will eventually come round. So who will blink first in this game of chicken? We hold our breaths.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Grave injustice.

Dharun Ravi, a student at Rutgers New Jersey State University, spied on his roommate, Tyler Clementi while he was kissing another man in his room. Ravi rigged up a webcam and showed the pictures to others. Clementi committed suicide by jumping off the George Washington bridge on September 20, 2010. An enormous tragedy. Ravi was found guilty of 15 charges of bias intimidation and invasion of privacy and, yesterday, sentenced to 30 days in prison, 3 years probation and 300 hours of community service. He could be deported to India. Why? Facebook and Google earn billions of dollars by selling private information on users, who have no idea, to advertisers. Celebrity sex tapes are regularly uploaded on the net. The latest one involves Tulisa Contostavlos and is pretty graphic. Not one person has ever been charged with hate crime. Why did Clementi commit suicide when homosexuality is common in the west? Because he knew it is abnormal. This is not about morality or religion, as in sin of Sodom, but about how the human body has developed in 3 billion years of evolution which makes male homosexuality grossly abnormal, both anatomically and pathologically. If Ravi can be deported to India it means that he is an Indian citizen. Why has the Indian government not done anything to protect him? When Raymond Davies shot 2 men in cold blood in Pakistan the US made him a diplomat after the incident and got him out. Italy has withdrawn its ambassador to India because it wants 2 marines, who shot 2 innocent fishermen to death off the coast of Kerala, to be freed. Yet here is a teenager whose life is being destroyed by a vindictive justice system for a prank and our government is acting as mute spectators. No action has been taken against another student, Molly Wei, probably because she is of Chinese descent and Americans are terrified of the Chinese. This is not the first time an Indian has been victimised in the US while a Chinese was treated with reverence. When a Chinese student sent dirty messages to school teachers Kritika Biswas was brutally humiliated by New York police even though she had nothing to do with it. When it was pointed out that she was the daughter of a diplomat US thugs said that diplomatic immunity did not cover families of diplomats. The reason why Indians are regularly brutalised in the US is because India has very strange laws. Suicide is still illegal in India and aiding and abetting suicide is a crime. There are separate laws for " minorities " giving them immunity for actions considered criminal for majority Hindus. But the main reason that Indians are so weak is because our politicians are boot-lickers and they would never dream of standing up to " gora chamra " or white skins. Has any Indian politician lectured Americans in the US about their perverted society the way Hilary Clinton lectures us when she is here? Dharun Ravi's jail sentence is a sentence for all Indians.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Cosmetic cost cutting.

In view of the dire economic situation our most revered Finance Minister may, just may, resort to cost cutting. He has hinted at curtailing junkets to foreign shores, no purchase of new cars for officials, flights only in cattle class, no meetings in 5 star hotels etc. However, unless he cuts the numbers of leeches the sheer volume will kill the country. The US is a $14.5 trillion economy while India is a mere $1.6 trillion but while the US has 15 Secretaries ( same as ministers in India ) and 7 of cabinet rank, making 22 in all, we have 47 ministers and 47 ministers of state, making 94 in all. There are 121 different departments in all these ministries which are staffed by officers of various ranks and numerous clerks. Considering that their salaries were increased by 80% in 2008 and they receive Dearness Allowance, equivalent to 75% of basic salary, the salary bill for all these useless fellows is humongous. Then there are the MPs. There are 552 of these beauties in the Lok Sabha and 250 in the Rajya Sabha. Being " supreme " they have awarded themselves such meager allowances as 1. Rs 50,000 salary/month 2. Rs 45,000 office expense allowance 3. Rs 15 million/ year free phone calls from 3 phones. Whether for each phone or combined is not explained. 4. Rent free flats-cum-furniture with free washing facilities. That would be at least Rs 50,000/month. 5. 50,000 units of free electricity/ year. That is why people are paying ever higher rates for electricity in Delhi. 6. Rs 20,000/month as pension. Will this accrue even if you are a MP for 1 day? Presumably yes. 7. Rs 2,000 daily allowance. For what? 8. Rs 45,000/month constituency allowance. 9. 4000 kiloliters of water/year. Most of Delhi gets water for just 1 hour/day in summer, some parts get no water for days. 10. 125% of fare incurred on airline. What is the extra 25% for? Shopping? 11. AC 1 class or executive class travel on trains. 12. Highly subsidised veg/non veg cafeteria on first floor of parliament. They are always moaning about subsidies to the people. HT, May 13. Apart from this each MP is given Rs 50 million as Local Area Development Scheme, affectionately known as MPLADS, although it is available to lasses as well. You need a calculator to tot up the total and then multiply by 552 and you will arrive at an approximate figure of the expense of these useless parasites. Why useless? There is a draconian act called the Essential Services Maintenance Act or ESMA which allows governments to beat up doctors if they go on strike. Yet when parliament does no work because of hooligan behavior by MPs this act is not invoked. If they are not an essential service, ergo, they must be useless. Deficit cannot be controlled unless numbers of leeches are pruned but nobody will agree to prune himself. Therein, in short, lies the nub.

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Italy should watch its steps.

Ever since Greece was downgraded from junk status to default status, Greeks have been withdrawing their personal savings from banks, up to 650 million pounds per day. They are afraid that if Greece is pushed out of the Euro they will be paid in Drachmas which will rapidly depreciate so that their savings will become worthless. Then 16 Spanish banks were downgraded so the Spanish people have started withdrawing money from banks in case they fail. The European Central Bank guarantees a maximum of 100,000 Euros to customers in case a bank goes belly up. On Tuesday 400 million pounds were withdrawn from Bankia in Spain and then 800 million pounds were withdrawn on Friday. One billion pounds were withdrawn Bank Santander in Spain on Friday. Spanish Central Bank said that bad loans have hit their highest levels since 1994 and stand at 147.968 billion Euros. Saturday and Sunday being holidays there has been time for people to think and exchange opinions. When banks open tomorrow there could be a run on Greek banks which could rapidly spread to Spain. Italy would be the next in the firing line and should therefore concentrate on its finances rather than behaving in a boorish manner with India. On February 15, 2 marines on an Italian ship Enrica Lexie shot and killed 2 unarmed fishermen off the coast of Kerala. Since then Italy has been insisting that the marines should be released on the specious arguments that the marines mistook the fishermen for pirates and that the shooting happened in waters outside Indian jurisdiction anyway. Last week Italy withdrew its ambassador from India to show its displeasure and the Indian ambassador in Italy, Mr Saha was called to their external affairs for a dressing down. Italy is a country of the mafia. Mafia means " hostility to the law and its ministers ". This was amply illustrated 2 days back when a bomb exploded outside Francesca Laura Morvillo Falcone fashion institute in Brindisi in Italy, killing a 16 year old girl and injuring 4. Francesca Morvillo and her husband, judge Giovanni Falcone were blown up by the mafia May 23, 1992 on a motorway near the town of Capaci because Falcone had been successful in jailing a lot of mafiosi. This Wednesday is the twentieth anniversary of his death. His successor and friend, Paolo Borsellino was killed by a car bomb on July 19, 1992. There is speculation that the bombing in Brindisi is the work of the Sacra Corona Unita. Brought up in this atmosphere it is not surprising that the Italians are behaving like thugs. Maybe they believe that they are in control of the Indian government. We should also withdraw our ambassador from Rome and politely inform the Italians that they will need friends very soon when they could be going round with a bowl, begging for coppers. If they do not listen to reason shove a bunga bunga ...

Saturday, May 19, 2012

The skyscraper index.

In January 1999, Andrew Lawrence, Research Director at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein put forward a theory that when any country starts to build skyscrapers, recession follows soon afterwards. It starts with very low interest rates allowing companies to expand rapidly and increase employees. This requires more office space. People rush to buy property because mortgages are so cheap. Builders respond by increasing construction of new buildings. The resultant pressure on land availability forces increase in land prices. Low interest rates promote research in better technology so that builders are able to build taller buildings on the same plot of land. This is not to say that all recessions are due to property price bubbles. The recession in the 70s was due to sudden rise in oil prices, the dotcom bubble was due to " irrational exuberance " for internet companies which had yet to make any profit and the Dutch Tulip bubble of 1637 was due to a sudden craze for a humble flower. However, most asset price bubbles are due to unjustified rise in the prices of properties because people prefer investing in something tangible, properties generate rent and property prices are inflation proof. A bubble forms when people, encouraged by low interest rates, keep buying properties in spite of escalating prices believing that prices will rise even further. The real estate bubble in Japan in 1990 resulted in 2 decades of deflation, the subprime bubble in the US, leading to the fall of Lehman Brothers, nearly caused a global collapse and Britain, Ireland and Spain are in recession because of the collapse of property prices. China is struggling to bring down property prices and still maintain a high growth rate without causing inflation. In India property prices have risen by above 800% since 2002. An apartment in Delhi costing Rs 3.5 million in 2002, costs Rs 25-30 million today. In India things are made worse by the fact that half the price of any property is paid in cash or black money. Ominously the Lodha Group is building a 117 storey residential tower in Mumbai which will be the highest of its kind in the world. The RBI has reduced interest to 8% while allowing banks to pay 9.5% interest on Non Resident accounts which can flee at any time. Instead the RBI should increase interest rates in India and lower NRI rates. Non resident Indians will still invest in fixed deposits because a weak rupee and high interest rate will give them huge returns. But the RBI will be able to control the outflow of foreign currency. Property prices should be brought down by 80% which would be the fair value. This will reduce the amount of black money in circulation, allow the RBI to control money supply and inflation, make housing affordable, force businessmen to stop trying to make a fast buck in properties and focus instead on their core businesses increasing employment and growth. Will they do it? Never. Instead the government will keep increasing taxes which will reduce purchasing power and hamper growth. The World Famous Economist is an absolute dud.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Criticism can be dangerous.

Apparently the previous BSP government of UP was involved in the disappearance of Rs 400 billion. This is not being alleged by citizens or the civil society, abused as a " mob " by irate MPs, but by the present Chief Minister of UP, Akhilesh Yadav of SP. The numerous scams involved various schemes such as 1. Teachers Eligibility Test - Rs 1.2 billion, 2. Seeds scam - Rs 1.06 billion, 3. Toilet Construction Scam - Rs 29 billion ( did not realise that you can make money from shit ), 4. Ban Sagar Project - Rs 12.85 billion, 5. Noida Plot scam - Rs 50+ billion, 6. NHRM scam, in which at least 2 Chief Medical Officers were murdered - Rs 57 billion and 7. False payments for statues Rs 1+ billion. The previous Chief Minister, Ms Mayawati built statues to herself and her family with public money. Saddam Hussein did the same. US cables revealed by Wikileaks described Ms Mayawati as " a virtual paranoid dictator with food tasters and a security entourage to rival a head of state ". The cables added," When she needed new sandals, her private jet flew empty to Mumbai to retrieve her preferred brand." To this Ms Mayawati's response was that Wikileaks founder, Julian Assange was anti-dalit and should be sent to an asylum. Not only was there no shame or apology from Ms Mayawati there was no outrage from any politician of any party showing that every politician is engaged in looting the exchequer. That is why all politicians are united in their opposition to cartoons or any form of criticism. After all once people start you never know what secrets will start tumbling out and, the next thing you know, people will demand that the scoundrels be punished. A professor of Jadavpur University in Kolkata was roughed up by Trinamool Congress thugs and arrested for forwarding a cartoon of Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee. About 450 members of Trinamool students' wing spread over Kolkata, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore and even London have infiltrated social networking sites such as Facebook, Twitter and Orkut and report directly to Trinamool Bhavan. This is exactly what the government of China does. We just had the sixtieth anniversary of the parliament and there was extensive verbiage about our glorious democracy which makes us superior to totalitarian states like China. We were told that parliament is the " light pillar " of democracy and that it is supreme. So supreme that you will get beaten up or even killed if you dare to point that 162 of the fellows are criminals and they were knowingly allowed to contest elections by the various parties. That makes every politician an accessory or an accomplice. Trying to take away our freedom of speech will not work because putrid garbage will stink even if beautifully gift-wrapped. India is a police state and is becoming more dangerous everyday. Sadly, Chen Guangchen can find asylum in the US but Indians will not be accepted. After all we are a " democracy " are we not?

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Shaky fundamentals.

The rupee keeps falling, the Sensex is down and the economy looks, not just shaky, but on the brink of free fall. Our most revered Finance Minister blames the situation in Europe and the price of oil and keeps offering the same bromide of the government being on top of the situation. Europe has been in turmoil for over a year and oil prices are down 13% since the beginning of May at $92.81/barrel in New York. The problems have been created ever since the Congress came to power in 2004. Uncontrolled spending on social schemes to bribe voters led to runaway inflation. Yet the RBI was arm twisted into lowering interest rates. The reason given was that it was to lower borrowing costs for businesses. Surely, companies can borrow at very low rates in the US, UK or Europe where interest rates are between 0-1%. So why do they keep whining for interest rates to come down when inflation is reducing demand and is affecting profits? The danger of borrowing abroad, they say, is that the rupee may fall, as it is doing at the moment, and it will cost a lot more to pay back. An easy way to protect against rupee depreciation would be to open an account in any tax haven, say Cayman Islands. Borrow a $1 billion and invest $200 million in US government securities and AAA rated corporate bonds which will pay interest. Invest the rest in India. If the rupee falls this money will act as a cushion and if the rupee rises this money will become windfall profit. No need to hedge in futures and derivatives which can be dangerous, as Morgan Stanley showed in the last few days. When lenders are assured of returns cost of borrowing will be lower. So why don't our companies adopt such a simple solution to currency volatility? For 2 reasons - 1. Businessmen in India regularly divert money borrowed from banks into other projects. Borrow money for setting up a factory, buy land near a city somewhere, advertise luxury apartments in rural surroundings and, bingo, money starts pouring in. Take an initial installment for registration and demand regular payments which pay for the building costs and see your money more than double in 3-4 years. We do not know how many unsold properties companies are sitting on but this may account for the howls of anguish for lowering interest rates. 2. If you borrow from Indian banks, especially public sector backs, there is no pressure for repayment. There has been a 300% rise in restructuring of corporate debt this fiscal at Rs 762.51 billion and rising compared to last year when it was Rs 250.54 billion. Last year a US based bondholder group, QVT won a case against Wockhardt, a pharmaceutical company which had defaulted on loans of $110 million. Wockhardt sold off its hospitals business last year. Now QVT has filed a case against Zenith Infotech which defaulted on bonds $33 million last year leading to an automatic default on bonds worth $50 million maturing in August 2012. What is amazing is that we have been writing about such a situation for at least 4 years, even mentioning stagflation, yet experts were all lauding our " growth story ". Were they bribed or just plain naive? Strange fellows.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Supremely contemptible.

There will be great rejoicing in government circles and in the freeloading press tomorrow as the US has instituted sanctions on 2 aides of Dawood Ibrahim, named as Chota Shakeel and Tiger Memon. The Treasury Department designated the 2 as narcotic traffickers citing their ties to D Company, " one of the world's most notorious criminal organisations ". Both are Indian citizens as was Dawood Ibrahim who was the mastermind behind terror bombings in Mumbai in 1993 which left more than 250 dead. Dawood was named a Specially Designated Global Terrorist in October 2003 and Significant Foreign Narcotics Trafficker in June 2006 by the US. Surely, with a million man armed forces India should have caught and hanged him by now but not only is he free but he lives a life of luxury in Karachi in Pakistan. Naturally, Pakistani authorities have no idea of where he is even though senior officers attended his daughter's wedding to the son of former Pakistani cricketer, Javed Miandad. There were big headlines when the US announced a bounty of $10 million on Hafiz Saeed of the LeT who masterminded the terror attacks of 2008 in Mumbai. Saeed laughed and is freely roaming around Pakistan preaching violent hatred against India and the US because Pakistanis claim have no " evidence " against him. So, why does the US throw a bone to India now and then which creates such ecstasy in our politicians and the freeloading press? The dates coincide with the US presence in Afghanistan where they have been bogged down and now want to escape. The US wants India to reduce troops on its borders so that the Pakistanis transfer their troops to the west and fight the Taliban. In recent weeks the Taliban has stepped up its attacks on US and NATO forces who have been taking casualties. The US desperately wants to weaken the Taliban so that it is no longer a threat after they pull out by 2014. To that end they want the Pakistanis to take out Taliban strongholds in Waziristan which the Pakistanis are reluctant to do. Hence the little tidbits for India which are eagerly accepted by our politicians as an excuse for going on " bended knees " to talk peace with Pakistan. Why, when our parliament is so " supreme ", are we so supine? Why are our politicians not supremely angry at the loss of Indian lives? Because they are very angry at academics who included a cartoon on Dr Ambedkar in school textbooks to make history lessons more interesting. The cartoon was satirizing the long time being taken to write the constitution and was published on August 28, 1949 when Dr Ambedkar was still alive and would no doubt have seen it. Supremely corrupt, supremely irrelevant and supremely contemptible, that is what they are.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Light pillar is the cause of the darkness.

Inflation has gone up from 6.89% in March to 7.23% in April, the rupee is 53.92 to the dollar in spite of RBI selling dollars and the foreign exchange reserves are down to less than $293 billion. In desperation the RBI has asked local exporters to convert half their foreign exchange holdings to rupees within 15 days and has allowed banks to offer higher interest on Non Resident Accounts. Banks are now offering 9.5% on NRE accounts offering wonderful opportunities for arbitrage to foreigners and Non Resident Indians. They can borrow at almost 0% in the US and earn 9.5% tax free in India. These accounts are fully repatriable and can be taken out at any time so the RBI is signalling that the rupee is going to depreciate further and banks will have to pay less in future. Banks profit by lending at rates higher than their borrowing costs but, in its wisdom, the RBI has reduced interest rates in India by a whacking 50 basis points, from 8.5% to 8%. So will the banks pay 9.5% to NRIs and then lend at 9% to borrowers in India? One of the main reason for this dismal state of the economy is rising fiscal deficit. Instead to reducing its spending the government has committed Rs 400 billion to bail out the moribund Air India. This money would be much better used to pay off the debts of companies, such as GMR, which renovated airports and then reducing all taxes, from fuel to airport tax, on passengers. That will bring down ticket prices encouraging millions of more people to fly. Airlines will become profitable, more tourists will come to India as travel becomes easier and more comfortable, bringing in more foreign exchange, and businesses will flourish leading to a jump in tax revenues. So why is the government wasting money on an airline where pilots have been on strike for the last 8 days? Because politicians and civil servants get to fly for free with family and friends. When the former Aviation Minister, Praful Patel's daughter wanted to fly to Mauritius with her in-laws there were not enough seats in business class. So Air India laid on a larger plane and more than 50 seats remained vacant on both legs of the flight. However, politicians have been celebrating the 60th anniversary of the parliament by confirming that parliament is supreme and no mob can pass laws. Why are they so angry and who are they abusing as a " mob "? They are angry with us, the citizens of India, for supporting Anna Hazare's campaign for a strong Lok Pal to find and punish criminal politicians and civil servants. Lok Sabha Speaker, Meira Kumar has said," Parliament is the light pillar of democracy." Sorry, but winning elections with thugs and black money and then looting the exchequer is definitely not " democracy ". This " light pillar " is sucking all the energy out of us a leaving us in pitch darkness. No sharam, no izzat.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Beautiful but hard to watch.

The English Premier League 2012 ended yesterday and what day it was. Why some managers do not suffer heart attacks is impossible to tell. At the bottom Wolves and Blackburn had already been relegated. The third place would be decided between Bolton on 35 points and Queen Park Rangers on 37. If Bolton won and QPR lost then QPR would go down, any other result and Bolton would drop. At the top Manchester United and Manchester City were both tied on 86 points with City ahead on goal difference so City had to match United's result. In an interesting twist United were away at Sunderland but City were at home to QPR who were fighting to stay alive. This being the last day all matches started at the same time. City versus QPR was the game to watch and as the match progressed news was coming through on what other teams were doing adding to the tension. In first half news came that Wayne Rooney had put United ahead at Sunderland and Bolton were a goal up at Stoke. This meant that both City and QPR had to go for victory. The match was going along expected lines. City, with their world class talent, kept attacking while QPR defending solidly. At 39 minutes Zabaleta scored for City and fans started celebrating believing that the title was theirs. But QPR had other ideas. At the beginning of the second half, on 48 minutes, a dreadful defensive error allowed Djibril Cisse a one-on-one on the City goalkeeper Joe Hart. Cisse kept cool and scored. Back to square one. City stormed forward in numbers to regain their lead. On 55 minutes Joey Barton was sent off for elbowing Tevez in the face and QPR were down to 10 men. City fans now really believed that nothing could stop them from winning. City players stormed forward, enjoying more than 80% possession. News was coming through that Stoke had equalised but then Bolton scored again to go 2-1 up. On 66 minutes QPR managed to get the ball up the field and a cross from the left saw Jamie Mackie score with a downward header. City were down 1-2. On the terraces fans were in tears. QPR were defending with all 10 men in front of the goal and City could not penetrate their defence, try as they might. Finally, 90 minutes were up but the referee added 5 minutes of stoppage time. By then news came that United had hung on to win 1-0 at Sunderland but Bolton had been relegated because Stoke had scored to make it a 2-2 draw. On 92 minutes substitute Dzeko got up high and headed the ball into the net from one of the umpteenth corners that City enjoyed. That made it 2-2 but it was not enough. Then on 94 minutes Aguero, son-in-law of the great Diego Maradonna, received the ball in the penalty area, rode a tackle and scored with a hard shot. City fans went delirious with joy. City were champions after 44 years and for the first time ever the Premier League title had been decided on goal difference. QPR survived in the Premier League. A truly beautiful but unbelievable game. After this it was impossible to sleep.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Collective punishment.

In a final throw of the dice the President of Greece, Karolos Papoulias has invited the heads of all the political parties to form a coalition government to continue with its promised austerity programs so as not to miss the next tranche of EU bailout money but it is looking increasingly unlikely that this will happen. This will precipitate another general election in June but by this time it could be too late and Greece could have crashed out of the Euro. Greek people are fed up with austerity which is hitting them hard. The economy shrank by 8.5% last year, 54% of young people are out of jobs and poverty is increasing. Hundreds have committed suicide and mothers are giving away their children because they are unable to buy food for them. Greece has been living beyond its means since it got a democratic government in 1974 and successive governments have been borrowing money to pay for the generous social schemes they devised to win elections. Greece joined the Euro by hiding its accounts and, for a time, enjoyed borrowing at low interest rates until the debt became too huge to service and then it fell apart. The EU, led by Germany, has forced stringent cost cutting measures to reduce public debt in return for lending money to pay off maturing debts and pay for running the government. Private lenders have had to take a haircut and write off part of the debt which is a partial default. The problem is that as the economy shrinks and unemployment increases the government earns less in tax revenue which means that Greece will be paying off its debts for decades. If austerity had been accompanied by some measures to increase growth people could have borne the pain because it would be finite but German Chancellor, Angela Merkel is adamant. She wanted Greece to cut its budget deficit from 15.8% of GDP in 2009 to under 3% by 2014. When the then Greek Prime Minister, Papandreou asked her for gentler terms she replied that the program had to hurt. " We want to make sure nobody else will want this," Mrs Merkel told him. Famous words but is she sure that she will not have to bail out Spain, Potugal and Italy if Greece falls? Being from the old East Germany Mrs Merkel may have been brought up in austerity and may be wondering what the fuss is all about but she should not forget that following German Unification in 1990 West Germany transferred 1.6 trillion Euros to the East to pay for the transition. If new elections are held in Greece opinion polls show that Alexis Tsipras and the left coalition of Syriza will win a majority. Germany and the EU are putting up a brave front saying that the firewall around Greece will prevent the contagion from spreading. But already yields on Spanish government bonds are rising. Excessive government spending, ill-considered social schemes, borrowing ever more to run government business, very high tax rates, rampant tax evasion, corrupt politicians, government lies to cover up its problems, a corrupt pampered civil service - sounds exactly like India doesn't it? When, not if, will it catch up with us?

Saturday, May 12, 2012

No different from monkeys.

In South America tribes catch monkeys by baiting a narrow-necked bottle with a nut. The bottle is secured to the ground. A monkey inserts its hand to get the nut but is unable to pull out a clenched fist holding the nut. Unable to get away, but too greedy to release the nut, the monkey is then easily killed and eaten. Bank CEOs exactly resemble such monkeys. The world has not yet recovered from the effects of the sub-prime crisis, which destroyed 2 banks, Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers and nearly brought down AIG which had insured such deals, and already JP Morgan Chase has announced a loss of $2 billion in hedging on its portfolio at its London branch. It may lose another $1 billion. Its credit rating was lowered from AA+ to A- by Fitch today and it has been put on review for future downgrades. CEO, Jamie Dimon, who has been a vocal critic of the Volcker Rule, has blamed " errors, sloppiness and bad judgement ". This was not the work of a rogue trader but a policy designed by the bank to increase profits and, in turn, bonuses of Mr Dimon and his friends on the board. Ironically, Mr Dimon has been the fiercest lobbyist against the Volcker Rule which was supposed to stop such recklessness and was successful in introducing a loophole in the Rule called portfolio hedging. This allows hedging of the entire investment portfolio as opposed to hedging against individual security or trading position so that when one goes up the other goes down. New York Times, May 12. Michigan Democrat, Carl Levin said that JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon's lobbying produced " a big enough loophole that a Mack truck could drive right through it ". He also said that portfolio hedging " is a licence to do pretty much anything ". This incident shows that 1. Corporate chiefs are motivated only by greed to the exclusion of common interest, 2. Infinite growth in profits forever is impossible, 3. Lawmakers are cowards looking to get re-elected rather than serving the electorate that they have been elected to do and finally, 4. Just as CEOs are paid humongous bonuses for generating profits they should be made to pay back any losses they make through risky trades. We have become jaded by the constant repetition by corporate bandits and back-pocket politicians that salaries and bonuses have to be stratospheric to attract the best talent. If Mr Dimon and people of his ilk are so great that banks cannot function without them surely they should have to pay back when they make a loss just as they are rewarded when they make a profit. Politicians should understand that banks should be headed by stolid, cautious chiefs who are safe and not by Flash Harrys producing money from a hat. After the sub-prime crisis politicians rushed to capitalise banks instead of supporting mortgages and savings of the people so that ordinary people lost their homes while bank chiefs continued to get millions of dollars in bonuses. Planet of the apes is already here.

Friday, May 11, 2012

What motivates them.

China's Consumer Price Index is down to 3.4% in April compared to 3.6% in March, comfortably lower than the government target of 4%, but food inflation is still at 7%. Growth is expected to drop to 8.1%. This gives the Chinese room to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy which is expected to grow at 8.1%. China has foreign currency reserves of over $3 trillion and can stimulate growth as it pleases. India on the other hand looks like a basket case. Growth is expected to drop to below 7%, fiscal deficit is expected to be 5.9%, Wholesale Price Index was 6.89% in March while the CPI was 9.47%, almost double of the RBI target of 5% and the rupee keeps dropping which will only exacerbate inflation. Yet while the Chinese are cautious in stimulating the economy for fear of stoking inflation the RBI has already reduced our rates by 50 basis points. In a report on May 3, Morgan Stanley said," Considering the fiscal policy is still expansionary and RBI has already embarked on on easing path faster than warranted, risk of inflation pressures re-emerging is very high." msn.com, May 5. The report said that a significant part of the recent deceleration in headline inflation and core inflation can be attributed to delay in hike of administered prices. If the government wants to restrict oil subsidy burden to levels provided in the Union budget for 2012-13 fuel prices will have to increase by 39% adding 2.47% to WPI. The problem is that petrol is already at Rs 70/lit because of taxes while increasing diesel price will immediately impact food prices. The report warns that India is the only country in the region with a current account deficit, and a wide one at that, and faces a " high " risk of a shock in its balance of payments if global risk aversion increases due to any reason. So why is China so well off as compared to India? To maintain their absolute hold on power Chinese leaders are terrified of any internal disturbances and are therefore keen to keep up a high rate of growth with low inflation to make the people feel wealthy. They calculate that people will tolerate less freedom as long as the standard of living keeps on rising. In India, on the other hand, criminal politicians are totally focused on winning elections at the cost of everything else as power gives them the chance to loot. They use taxpayer money to bribe the poor who are called " vote bank ". This means that the majority of the population need to be poor to be susceptible to bribery and kept illiterate so that they do not understand or question the gradual destruction of the country. However, bribery has produced uncontrollable deficit leading to inflation and a falling rupee which, in turn, leads to further inflation. Hence the need for growth at any cost to increase tax revenue and reduce deficit while levying extortionate taxes on all goods and services. But this only reduces demand and, yes, growth. Even a headless chicken would have more sense. Ask Venky's?

Thursday, May 10, 2012

A dangerous cult.

In March 2011, a group called Sikhs for Justice filed a case against the Congress Party in a New York court holding it responsible for the massacre of Sikhs after the murder of Mrs Indira Gandhi in 1984 after failing to find justice in India for 27 years. On May 9, 2012 lawyers for the Congress argued that the court had no jurisdiction over the Congress. Judge Robert Sweet noted that the Congress had only challenged the court's jurisdiction to hear the case and not filed any defence on the merits of the allegations against it. HT online, May 10. The reason the Congress cannot deny the allegations is because witnesses to the carnage are still alive and willing to testify despite threats, false charges of crime and offers of money and land. Jagdish Kaur, who saw her husband set alight, says she saw local Congress MP, Sajjan Kumar telling a mob in Hindi," Not a single Sardar ( Sikh ) should survive. Kill these Sardars, they have killed our Mother ( Indira Gandhi )." When she approached the local police station to report the murder of her husband the police officer told her," Are you in your senses? The people, whose names you have mentioned are so powerful, where will you hide the rest of your family?" From 1984 to 2000, 10 commissions were set up to investigate the charges. Of these, the Jain-Bannerjee Committee in 1987 found sufficient evidence against Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar, the Patti-Rosha Committee of 1990 found against Tytler and Kumar while the Narula Committee of 1993 found against Kumar, Tytler and HKL Bhagat. Yet no one was held responsible for the terrible massacres as Delhi Police, no doubt for fear of the Congress, could find no records of the crimes. All police diaries of the days of riots, between October 31-November 3, are blank except for 2 complaints against Sikhs for assembling with kirpans ( swords ). Lawyer for the witnesses, HS Phoolka says," Whenever it came to commissions of inquiry, Sajjan Kumar's name appeared prominently, but whenever it went to the police, his name disappeared." Finally, in January 2010 the CBI framed charges against Sajjan Kumar including murder and rioting with deadly weapons. Whether this was to preempt the filing of the case in New York we do not know. The threats against the witnesses became so dire that the CBI arranged for Punjab Police to provide armed guards to protect them from Delhi Police. The frightening thing is that the Congress is not just a family dictatorship, like the Mubaraks and the Assads, but a dangerous cult, like Aum Shinrikyo or Branch Davidians, where one family is worshiped as divine. Kumar obviously saw Indira Gandhi as a Goddess and was enraged. This cult worship is why the government is trying to free the 2 Italian marines who shot our fishermen. That is why Quattrochi was able to coolly leave India in 1993 even though the CBI was investigating the Bofors deal since 1990 and the evidence against Quattrochi was conclusive. Dangerous cults end in disaster and so will the Congress. Problem is what damage it will do to the country.

Wednesday, May 09, 2012

Stick to chickens.

The great Bill Shankly, legendary manager of Liverpool Football Club, once said," Some people believe football is a matter of life and death, I am very disappointed with that attitude. I can assure you that it is much, much more important than that." That is real passion, without which you should never get involved with a football club. Men love sports but, among all sports, football fans follow their beloved teams with a passion that no other sport can generate. Blackburn Rovers, taken over by Pune based poultry farmers, Venky's 18 months ago is a club steeped in history, even if its fortunes have been indifferent in recent years. The club was founded in 1875 and was the founding member of the football league in 1888. Although its glory days were before WW11, it managed to win the Premier League in 1995 under manager, Kenny Dalglish, the present manager of Liverpool. On May 7, the club was relegated after being defeated at home by Wigan. Smaller teams with a limited pool of players are always in danger of relegation because injuries to key players can suddenly make the team vulnerable. The charge against Venky's is, not that Blackburn were poor, but that they, as owners, did nothing. The Premier League season is over 10 months and 38 games but in all that time Venky's did not change manager, did not buy new players or show any understanding for the suffering of the fans as they spent hard earned money and traveled across the country in English winter to support their team. Yet it does not take all that much money. Newcastle are fifth in the table on 65 points, just below Spurs on 66 and Arsenal on 67 with one game to go. They are still in with a realistic chance of qualifying for Champions League next season. They have not done so by spending huge amounts. Yohan Cabaye cost 5 million pounds, Papiss Cisse, who cannot stop scoring, cost 10 million, David Santon 5.3 million, Hatem Ben Arfa with dancing feet 5.75 million, Tiote 3.5 million and Denmba Ba was a free transfer. They still have change left over from the sale of Andy Carroll to Liverpool for 35 million pounds. Enraged Blackburn fans released a chicken draped in a team scarf on Ewood Park ground after the defeat by Wigan. Times correspondent Oliver Kay wrote that the club had been " mishandled, mistreated and mismanaged ". TOI, May 9. He also wrote," What shame to watch the fabric of a fine club unraveling in front of your eyes." The Daily Mail said that Rovers fans were right to feel " misled and betrayed ". Indian business people are used to treating customers and staff with disdain. They are mostly dishonest, selfish and mean, wanting to make money any which way. But football is not a product where a customer has the chance to choose a different producer. Fans choose a team in childhood and follow it through life. That is why they feel bitter and betrayed by Venky's and rightly so. Venky's, may not be aware that they have not only damaged Blackburn but have seriously damaged goodwill for Indian businesses in Britain. If they have any shame they should apologise sincerely to Blackburn fans and set about repairing the damage. Question is - do they have any shame?

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Thus far for GAAR.

Our most revered Finance Minister surrendered to the market. This year's budget contained a proposal for General Anti Avoidance Rules which was designed to stop companies avoiding tax by buying or selling assets in India through shell companies in tax havens. Vodafone had purchased a telecom company, Hutch through a company registered in the Cayman Islands and refused to withhold capital gains tax from the seller, Hutchison Whampoa in spite of being told to do so. In principle the rules were correct saying that India is not a tax haven and that you have to pay tax somewhere in the world and if we have a double tax avoidance treaty with that country then you will not be liable for tax in India. Vodafone, used to avoiding tax in Britain, tried to be too smart. The trouble was that it opened up many such past transactions to scrutiny and gave too much power to Income Tax officials. Foreign companies mounted a campaign against the measure putting pressure on the Sensex and the rupee. Yesterday, it was announced that GAAR has been postponed for one year which means it has been killed off. The Sensex was down 320 points but ended the day 82 points higher than the previous day and the rupee climbed over 50 paisa. However, both are down today as the euphoria has worn off and traders have concentrated once again on fundamentals which are dismal. So dismal that the army is waiting since 2009 for better bullet proof vests and ballistic helmets. Present vests are too heavy and not as effective resulting in the deaths of 150 soldiers every year in Kashmir at the hands of terrorists. The new jackets are lighter and more protective. It can be reinforced with hard armour plates to protect vital areas of the body. TOI, May 3. The army wants 1,86,168 such vests urgently but is still waiting. However, our politicians do not need to wait. In 3 years since April, 2009 VIPs have used Indian Air Force planes and helicopters on 1889 occasions racking up a bill of Rs 288.3 million of which Rs 113 million are still outstanding. msn.com, May 8. Indeed, our most revered Prime Minister is entitled to use IAF planes for non-official purposes, which he did to the tune of Rs 141.7 million. What exactly is a non-official purpose? Attending a wedding, shopping for vegetables, urgent need for a bathroom? While IAF pilots are working taxi services Chinese planes cross over into our air space without challenge. A new house, with a plinth area of 4100 sq ft, was being built on defence land in Pune for our most revered President to live in after retirement. She was " pained " when questioned about its propriety and has given up the idea. Clinton bought a house in New York to live in after completing his term. Jackie Kennedy and her children were not allowed to stay forever in Rs 3 billion houses after John Kennedy was assassinated. It is embarrassing to be a citizen of a country ruled by criminal beggars. Do we deserve this?

Monday, May 07, 2012

The people matter.

The people have spoken. Nicolas Sarkozy is out. He got 48.1% of the votes compared to Francois Hollande who got 51.9%. The reason is " austerity " which means cutting government spending by sacking public servants, reducing salaries and pensions and increasing the age of retirement. The result has been increasing unemployment, especially among the young, falling living standards and fall in property values. The whole crisis was caused by very low interest rates leading to spiraling property prices and increasing individual and public sector debts. Banks lent money to people without checking if they could repay their loans thinking that property prices will keep on rising infinitely so they could always repossess properties and sell them at profits. When the market collapsed in 2008 banks were left with huge debts they could not service. Panicked by the prospect of financial meltdown governments rushed to guarantee bank debts, effectively nationalising them. Having taken on massive debts on their books governments had to resort to vicious cuts in spending leading to terrible public pain. Meanwhile, bank officials, even those rescued by taxpayer money, continued to give themselves multi-million dollar bonuses enraging the public who, having no power to punish politicians for their criminal collusion, have been voting governments out of office. In Greece, which voted in parliamentary elections yesterday, the 2 main parties have seen their seats slashed. According to exit polls, conservative New Democracy Party got 19-20.5% of votes, socialist Pasok Party got 13-14%, down from 44% in 2009, while radical left wing coalition, Syriza has come second with 15.5-17% of votes. Syriza and the extreme right, Golden Dawn Party, which got 6-8% of vote are against austerity. In Britain the Conservative Party of Prime Minister, David Cameron lost 405 seats in council elections and lost control of 12 councils. Their coalition partners, the Lib Dems lost 329 seats while opposition Labour Party gained 824 seats and gained control of 32 councils. Following the drubbing Cameron stuck stubbornly to his support for austerity saying that the government' job is to " do everything to demonstrate we are on the side of the people that work hard and do the right thing for themselves and their families - that's who we are fighting for, that's who we must govern for ". A clear insult to the unemployed who cannot work hard if they have no jobs. Speaking of Cameron and Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne their own party MP, Nadine Dorries said," I think that not only are Cameron and Osborne two posh boys who don't know the price of milk, but they are two arrogant posh boys who show no remorse, no contrition, and no passion to want to understand the lives of others - and that is their real crime." She could be describing our lot except that they are definitely not posh, but a bunch of low class crooks who care nothing for people or country as long as they have their snouts in the trough. Democracy is not much different from oligarchy. Is it?

Sunday, May 06, 2012

It's in your face.

Officers of the Central Economic Intelligence Bureau and Income Tax ( Intelligence ) have informed the Finance Minister that 40% of undisclosed income, known in India as black money, is in real estate and 27% in manufacturing. HT online, May 6. They have uncovered Rs 14 billion in real estate and Rs 11 billion in manufacturing. Wow! How brilliant is that? We have been writing about black money in the property sector for 2 years now. Our intelligent intelligence has just woken up to the fact. The money they have uncovered is not even the tip of the proverbial iceberg. No one has any idea how much black money there is in India but it is in trillions of rupees. The officers also mention mining, health, forex business and education as other sectors generating black money. What they fail to mention, intentionally or innocently, is that most of the black money is generated by the government, that is politicians and civil servants who take bribes for every service and commissions for every purchase. This money is then invested in properties, hospitals, schools and colleges and trusts which help to launder black into white. Just follow the trusts and NGOs involving politicians, civil servants and their children and you will get some idea about where the black money is going. Form a trust, get cheap land from the government to build a college, appoint low grade teachers cheaply and charge millions in cash from parents of youngsters desperate to get a higher education. And then there is farming. All farm income is tax free. So, it is common to see politicians declaring their profession as farmers. Loot the exchequer and show it as farm income and, voila, it becomes white money without paying a paisa in tax. However, these are the people running the government so instead of concentrating on catching the real scoundrels the government spends all its energy on devising new laws or tricks to wring more money out of the suffering people. The telecom regulator, TRAI has come out with a new wheeze to wring more money out of consumers. This follows from the 2G scam where the then minister, A Raja distributed licenses on a first-come-first-served basis to cronies who then went on to sell the licenses for hundreds of millions thus making windfall profits. Now TRAI, headed by a civil servant, is proposing that telecom service providers should pay Rs 36.22 billion per MHz for pan India spectrum but also that they should be shifted to a new frequency and charged market rates for the license. It is like asking someone renewing his driving license to pay a huge some of money because he license number has been changed by force. Naturally, calling charges will jump anything up to 50%. It is shocking that politicians and civil servants spend their time in cheating citizens instead of serving them. Yet, India could be a rich and wonderful country to live in. If only we could get rid of the scum.

Saturday, May 05, 2012

American chop suey.

A fantastic story has been unfolding in China in the last week. Chen Guangcheng, a 40 year old blind lawyer in Donshigu village in Shandong province of China, escaped from his house arrest. He had filed a class action lawsuit against Linyi city for forcible abortion on thousands of women as part of the one-child policy. He was in prison from 2006-10 and was under house arrest since then. He escaped Communist Party thugs guarding his house, injuring his foot in the process, was driven to Beijing about 100km away and sought asylum in the US Embassy in Beijing last week. This precipitated a crisis between the US, which was stuck with its posture on human rights, and China, which saw it as interference in its domestic matters. While in the US Embassy Mr Chen was adamant that he wanted to remain in China. An understanding was reached and 3 days back the American ambassador accompanied Mr Chen to a local hospital for treatment of his foot injury. Next day he was not to be found at the hospital but contacted news agencies saying that he had changed his mind because of fears about the safety of his family and now wanted to go the west. Very diplomatically he did not mention the word " asylum " but said that he wanted to " rest ". Yesterday he phoned the US Congress and talked directly to US lawmakers expressing his desire to emigrate to the US. So, how did a blind man escape from his guards, was driven 100km to Beijing and able to enter the US Embassy, which must be the one of the most heavily guarded buildings in Beijing? It could not have been the US Navy Seals Team 6 which took out Bin Laden in Abbottabad. After all China is not Pakistan. Communist Party Chief of Chingqing, Bo Xi Lai has been sacked from all his posts and is under house arrest while his wife, Gu Kai Lai, is in police custody charged with the murder of British businessman, Neil Heywood in Chingqing last year. So, could this incident have been arranged by Maoist hardliners in the party angered by the fall of Bo Xi Lai? In which case, how was Mr Chen able to phone US Congress yesterday while in Chinese custody? Who provided him with a phone and, so helpfully, found him the number of the Congress in Washington? So could this whole charade have been arranged by the Chinese government just before Hilary Clinton's visit to get rid of an irritant? One can almost hear Mr Wen Jiao Bao advising Mr Chen," Go to Amelica, steal big seclets and make Middle Kingdom number 1 top power. Maybe we give you big honor. Maybe we name blind panda after you. Ah so." Have the Chinese put one over the Americans? Love conspiracies.

Friday, May 04, 2012

India's growth factor.

Less than 4% of all Indians pay income tax. If we take 4% then the total number of taxpayers will be 48 million. Of this, a colossal 89% earn less than Rs 500,000 a year, 5.5% earn between Rs 500,000 and 1 million a year and only 1.3% earn more than Rs 2 million a year. TOI, May 3. Despite ever more draconian rules to expand the " tax base " the numbers paying tax are increasing at slower rates. In 2008-9 around 18 million taxpayers were added to existing figures, in 2009-10 another 17 million were added but only 15 million were added between 2010-11. Every effort is made to get taxes deducted at source which means that the government gets paid before we do but punishing people will not increase numbers, genuine economic growth will. Presently most of our " fantastic " growth story is dependent on the astronomical rises in prices of properties. Any apartment of 1000 sq ft in any major city costs in excess of Rs 10 million. Another 500,000 apartments are being built in the National Capital region, which includes Delhi and parts of Ghaziabad, Noida and Gurgaon, and are expected to be priced between Rs 2.5-5 million. Registration and stamp duty vary between 6-12% so another million will be added to the cost. Property tax calculated on these values will also be high. Of these, 86000 units will be completed this year, 50% in 2013 and the rest by 2015. The intriguing question is, who is buying at these prices? Taking the government's own figures only 2.64 million people earn between Rs 500,000-1 million a year and a mere 624,000 earn more than Rs 2 million a year. Add in another 1 million for those earning between Rs 1-2 million a year and we have a grand total of 4 million people who earn more than Rs 500,000 a year. With inflation rocketing upwards at 10% it costs at least Rs 25000 per month for a family of 4 to survive. This includes food, clothes, travel and energy but not rent, school fees or medical expenses. So a person earning Rs 500,000 per year will save almost nothing after paying tax and expenses for his family. How is such a person to make a down-payment and afford monthly EMI for a mortgage. Yet property prices keep zooming merrily upwards while builders advise people to buy now before they become even more expensive. The taxes on property sales, the money earned by those selling ancestral land and the black money in every sale are what has been feeding our growth. Politicians being criminals think that threatening and persecuting citizens will increase tax collections so that they and their thieving civil servant friends can continue with their loot. This adversarial system of laws were written by the British to subdue a hostile population and have no place in a free country. As our representatives politicians should be trying to make our lives richer and more pleasant by providing the best services and infrastructure at the lowest possible tax levels. Sadly criminals can never be altruistic.

Thursday, May 03, 2012

Still in Murdoch's pocket?

It is pure bad luck that the phone hacking scandal by the News of the World, especially that of the murdered teenager Milly Dowler, surfaced after David Cameron became Prime Minister. As he said in the House of Commons couple of days back Tony Blair met Rupert Murdoch some 7 times and Gordon Brown 13 times whereas he, Cameron met him only 4 times. Now Culture Secretary, Jeremy Hunt has been accused of misleading parliament over his handling of the BSkyB takeover bid by News Corp. Email records show that Hunt's Special Adviser, Adam Smith communicated extensively with News Corp before its takeover bid for BSkyB. Smith resigned Wednesday, last week but Jeremy Hunt has refused to resign saying that he has given written evidence to the Leveson enquiry and is looking forward to giving oral evidence. In an interview with the BBC, Cameron defended Hunt saying that he has done an " excellent job " and denied any understanding with Rupert Murdoch saying," The idea that there was some grand bargain between me and Rupert Murdoch - that is not true." That being so, why did the Tories trash the report by the Commons Culture, Media and Sport Committee into Rupert Murdoch's involvement in the phone hacking scandal? The Committee concluded that senior executives at News Corp knowingly covered up the full extent of the phone hacking scandal by " buying the silence of victims ". Rupert Murdoch " exhibited wilful blindness to what was going on in his companies and publications " and that he is " not a fit person " to run an international company. However Tory members of the Committee did not agree. Tory MP, Louise Mensch completely devalued the report by saying that the " partisan report has lost a very great deal of its credibility as Labour voted along party lines against Murdoch " forgetting to mention that 4 of the 5 Tory members of the committee voted against publishing the report at all. Right on cue, News Corporation condemned the report as " unjustified and highly partisan ". So why are the Tories still sucking up to Murdoch? Do they still have lots of skeletons rattling around inside the cupboard? The largest selling tabloid in Britain, The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch and has been highly critical of David Cameron in recent weeks. It is as if Murdoch expected Cameron to protect him from any criticism and is taking revenge for being the subject of so many investigations. So, is Murdoch just a bitter old man or has Cameron gone back on some promise he made for Murdoch's support before elections? Nothing written down, merely nudge-nudge, wink-wink type. Trouble is that the US Justice department is also taking an interest in the scandal and further embarrassing details may yet emerge. On the one hand politicians cultivate unsavoury characters who own newspapers or TV stations on the other hand they try to muzzle the internet where the people voice their opinions. A dirty business.

Wednesday, May 02, 2012

Bunga Bunga to Indian laws.

On February 15 an Indian fishing boat was fired upon by 2 Italian marines guarding the ship Enrica Lexie within Indian waters killing 2 Indian fishermen. The ship was impounded and the 2 marines were arrested. The Italian government has been bullying the Indian government trying to get the marines and the ship released. Their argument is that the incident took place in international waters and so the 2 marines should be tried in Italy. Having insisted that the incident happened in our waters the union government suddenly did an about turn and submitted to the Supreme Court that Kerala Police has no power to detain either the ship or the crew because the murder happened outside the country's territorial waters. As complete a surrender to Italy as you would never wish to see. Meanwhile the Italian government has resorted to naked bribery of witnesses and the families of the 2 victims. They have signed a contract with Freddie, the owner of the fishing boat and another eye witness that they will not give testimony against the Italians. Freddie was paid Rs 1.7 million and has already turned hostile which means that he has changed his testimony. Meanwhile the Italians have signed separate contracts with the families of the 2 dead fishermen by paying them Rs 10 million each. This is a clear case of nobbling of witnesses inside India by the government of another country. The Supreme Court was not pleased. " This is a direct challenge to the Indian legal procedure. It cannot be permitted. It is an affront," said the Court. TOI, May 2. The Court went on," If two parties agree to a term which is against the law, what was the legal aid authority doing? How can a court put its stamp of approval and become a party to such an illegal agreement? How can the lady ( Doramma, sister of one of the fishermen ) be taken out of the case through illegal means? Can her mouth be shut by paying one crore?" The Italian government said that this was not payment of blood money but humanitarian assistance to help the families repair their lives. How noble is that? We know that Italy is the home of the Camorra, Ndrangheta, Sacra Corona Unita and many such organisations and that successive Prime Ministers have been criminals but how are they able to stick 2 fingers to our law with such contempt? Who is the Guardian Angel protecting the Italians? Is it the same Guardian Angel that allowed Ottavio Quattrocchi to coolly leave India even though the evidence against him in the Bofors case " was conclusive " according to Sten Lindstrom, the then head of Swedish Police. Will the Supreme Court stand up against the Angel and punish the Italians severely? We doubt it. The hangover from the Emergency is yet to clear.