Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Lessons are only for foreigners, we can do nothing.

A corporate consultant has written an article about the Ranbaxy-Daiichi deal, being very careful in his choice of words because India has a law against 'criminal defamation', to protect the powerful, and their friends. In 2008, Daiichi Sankyo bought Ranbaxy, an Indian pharmaceutical firm, for $4.6 billion, of which the promoters pocketed $2.4 billion for their 34.82% stake in the firm. Soon after the money was paid the FDA in the US banned drugs produced in 2 of its plants because of safety concerns. In 2013, Daiichi paid $500 million in fines to US authorities and pleaded guilty to charges of fraud and producing fake data to get fast approvals for its generic drugs. Recently Daiichi was awarded $400 million in compensation against the previous promoters for concealing bad practices in its plants. Exhausted by all the problems Daiichi sold the company to another Indian company, Sun Pharma for $3.2 billion in 2014. Ranbaxy was not the only one accused of bad practice. Many top Indian companies have been pulled up by the FDA in the US after inspection of their plants. In 2014, Germany banned drugs made in the Dewas plant of Ranbaxy. The reputation is so bad that the FDA has alleged that employees at drug companies regularly deleted bad quality control results and substituted fake results instead. Are the Americans being paranoid or racist, by nit-picking on Indian companies? In 2014, 13 women died of rat poison, mixed in antibiotics, in Chhattisgarh. So what are the lessons to be learnt from the Ranbaxy deal? The author recommends 6 points. The most important is," Trust but verify ". We would add that foreigners should start by asking Indian consumers which companies they trust. The real estate sector was seen as completely corrupt and controlled by organized crime. The government has passed a real estate law to make the sector transparent, so as to root out black money and collect more taxes. Citizens will benefit as a side effect. Some companies do have good reputation but managers have been trained never to accept any mistake and never to apologize, which means that they go on arguing that anything that goes wrong is the customers own fault, so that the company does not have to spend any money in solving the complaint. At least 80% of Indians believe that businesses are corrupt and 66% of businesses believe that bribery is acceptable. When you pay bribes up front you have to cut corners to make profits, which is why people do not trust businesses. Why are companies so crooked in India? Because the government controlled companies set the standard. We, the people, are the suckers. That is why a defamation law is so popular. In certain sections.

Monday, May 30, 2016

Our banks need help from the Rain God.

Reserve Bank Governor, Raghuram Rajan has taken a broom to Indian banks in an attempt to clean out bad loans. Gross Non Performing Assets, a jargon for bad loans, amounted to an eye-popping Rs 5.7 trillion in 38 out of 39 listed banks at the end of March, which is the end of the financial year. The RBI provided a list of companies, which have been financially stressed for several quarters, and asked banks to treat loans to these as NPAs. In the quarter ending in March public sector banks posted a net loss of Rs 234.93 billion, compared to a profit of Rs 88.07 billion in the same period last year. State Bank of India's gross bad loans is close to Rs 1 trillion, Punjab National Bank has bad loans of Rs 558.18 billion, while Bank of India has bad loans of Rs 478.79 billion. Frightened of adding to bad assets banks try to cut down on disbursing loans, resulting in a fall in interest earnings, making it difficult to provide for the bad loans. State Bank chief, Arundhati Bhattacharya has said that the bank is keeping a " special watch " on loans worth Rs 313.52 billion. If the economy improves the loss could be less than 30% but if it does not 70% of the loans could turn bad. Not all of it is the fault of the banks. The fall in the rate of growth in the Indian economy resulted in a fall in profits of companies, which meant that they could not service their debts, while the steep fall in global prices led to losses for companies dealing in commodities. " We have been bitten very largely by the steel sector. So, we have decided to keep away from those sectors where we have been bitten. Apart from steel we have heavy exposure to textiles and chemicals as well....," said Usha Ananthasubramanian, MD at Punjab National Bank. Banks are forced to lend to farmers for political reasons when the share of agriculture in our GDP has been shrinking. Outstanding loans to agriculture are in excess of Rs 7 trillion, most of which will not be repaid as politicians will forgive these loans to win elections, in a criminal waste of taxpayer money. Farm households owe an average of Rs 47,000 per household. Even the public sector insurance company, the Life Insurance Corporation of India, has NPAs of 4.23%. It has a loans portfolio of Rs 1 trillion and holds corporate debentures and bonds worth Rs 2.7 trillion. The Congress forced LIC to buy shares in public sector companies to bridge its budget deficit. However, banks are not without fault. Bank managers issue loans to dubious companies in return for gifts and money. Unable to lend to industry banks are concentrating on personal loans so credit card loans are rising. A good monsoon will increase growth so that profits increase and loans can be paid off. Money from the skies, as it were.


Sunday, May 29, 2016

Won't be easy if the system changes permanently.

Prime Minister Modi has completed 2 years in government and the analyses of his achievements and failures have been extensive. We do not remember such minute dissection of policies during the 10 years of Congress raj, when the economy was being ruined, money looted from scams was counted in trillions, double digit retail inflation was eating vast chunks out of our savings and the rupee almost collapsed into oblivion. The reason maybe that Narendra Modi is completely different to what has gone before. For 68 years since independence India has been shackled by socialism, crony capitalism, corruption and leftist liberal flimflam. Modi is completely different because he talks of development instead of more handouts, because he is not interested in accumulating wealth by looting the exchequer and because the BJP won absolute majority in the lower house, the Lok Sabha. Modi has clamped down on corruption so that those who were milking the system find their earnings disappearing. He stopped taking journalists on his official visits abroad so they miss out on foreign junkets at taxpayer expense. The real estate sector has almost seized up because Modi has clamped down hard on black money. There is immense rage because all those who were living in unbounded luxury by gaming the system suddenly find their sources of illicit wealth cut off. They have mounted a ferocious campaign of vilification through a pliant media, smarting from the loss of their privileges. A common refrain is that Modi is a Hindu nationalist. It has never been explained why being a Hindu is a crime so that conversion by other religions are encouraged, Bangladeshis are allowed to flood into India without restriction and Pakistan has to be embraced even though it is officially committed to terror attacks on Indian soil. Why is it wrong for an Indian to be a nationalist when the US proudly celebrates its armed forces on Memorial Day and politically correct Europeans strut around on VE Day to celebrate victory over Axis forces in World War II. Modi boosted money transfer to states so that each state is able to finance its own programs for development. This has boosted competitive federalism so that regional parties will be forced to perform or lose elections. Those who are still managing to win elections by throwing handouts at voters will face mounting debts and may suddenly find difficulty in carrying out basic functions such as paying salaries of government staff. So the attacks on Modi. He had said that if all the black money stashed abroad is brought back into India each person will get Rs 1.5 million, which has been held against him as a broken promise. He has been mocked as 'suit, boot ki sarkar' when it has not been explained why we should perpetually continue to have a 'loin cloth ki sarkar'. The fear is that he will change the system permanently so that they will not be able to loot even if they come back to power. Poor crooks.

Saturday, May 28, 2016

The dead deserve the truth.

Perhaps, symbolism is important in politics. President Obama's visit to Hiroshima, which was one of two cities used for experimenting atom bombs in 1945 by the US, was full of hot air and no substance. The US has committed innumerable genocides in Asia, in Japan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Afghanistan, Iraq and now in Syria, but has never apologized for its actions, let alone pay reparations. Instead it imposed economic sanctions on Vietnam for 20 years because it would not help in finding the remains of dead Americans. We cannot expect Obama to be any different. " We must have the courage to escape the logic of fear and pursue a world without them," he said (meaning nuclear weapons), although he quickly added:" We may not realize this goal in my lifetime, but persistent effort can roll back the possibility of catastrophe." He probably realized that no one would believe such a huge lie. Even as he was lying to the world, as he has been doing for 8 years, he was ratcheting up tensions with Russia by activating missile defense shields in Romania and Poland. Naturally, Russia has promised to retaliate by targeting missiles at those two countries. Obama has authorized the manufacture of 400 'super-nukes', named B61-12, with output equal to 50,000 tons of TNT, at a cost of $11 billion. At the same time the US is making smaller nuclear weapons, as part of 5 new types of warheads, at a cost of $1 trillion, to be used against targets buried deep underground. Having low yield weapons may reduce the inhibition of using nuclear weapons since they will be seen as 'safe', because of low casualties. But the nation against which these are used may retaliate with conventional nukes, igniting a nuclear tit-for-tat, with catastrophic results. While unnecessarily needling Russia, Obama has signed a nuclear deal with China, a dangerous oligarchy with ambitions of subjugating all of Asia, which will allow China to buy nuclear coolant technology from the US to build quieter submarines. The reason why Obama is so cavalier about nuclear weapons is probably because he has no scruples about killing people, having used drones to kill hundreds of terrorists, along with thousands of innocent civilians. Retired Gen Michael Flynn said," When you drop a bomb from a drone....you are going to cause more damage than you are going to cause good." Regardless, 469,000 names have been included in the list of terrorists, with no chance of presenting a defense or refuting allegations. He has casually admitted that bombing Libya was a mistake, not because over 30,000 people were killed, the majority of them civilians, but because a civil war has been raging ever since, pushing thousands to migrate to Europe. Time will tell whether he has been good for the US, for the rest of he has been a disaster - not only for the thousands he has killed but because of the millions that are going to die. Because of this cold, calculating villain.

Friday, May 27, 2016

It will not be an Apple a day in India for the present.

CEO of Apple, the maker of iPhones and iPads, Tim Cook was in India a week back to get permission to set up Apple stores, like in other countries. He attended temples and cricket matches, to try to understand Indians, but his visit was not fruitful. The government did not budge from its demand of sourcing 30% of parts locally, to create jobs, and did not give permission to sell refurbished second-hand phones. India desperately needs to create jobs, at the rate of over 1 million per month, so lots of Apples stores, employing a few retail staff in each, is of no use. But manufacturing for Apple is not easy. Foxconn operates at a margin of 1.5% so working conditions are very bad. It had to install netting to prevent workers from jumping to death at its factory in China. Such conditions will not be permitted in India. It set up a factory in Tamil Nadu but had to shut it down due to problems with unions, affecting 22,000 workers. Foxconn has a habit of lying and not delivering what it promises on paper. But even with such low wages and harsh working conditions Foxconn finds it more profitable to replace 60,000 workers with robots in China. India will not be easy for Apple. Its phones are more expensive here than in the US and it has no intention of competing at the lower end of the market. Why would anyone buy a refurbished phone when for the same price she can buy a new phone made locally or from China. Apple apps do not work that well in India and its voice recognition software, Siri, has problems understanding the Indian accent. Apple's revenue was just $1 billion in India in 2015, which is a mere drop in its total revenue of $233 billion in the same year. In 2015 the Apple app store in China generated revenues of $3.4 billion and may cross $4.5 billion this year. So was Tim Cook's visit during the punishing heat of summer a complete waste? We do not know what is on his mind but it is possible that he is worried about prospects in China. China's economy maybe considerably worse than what people think. There is a lot of speculation about what is going on inside China with rumors about a plot to oust the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang. Credit rating of Chinese firms are being downgraded at record rate. Also the government may suddenly change rules. In April the government blocked access to iBooks and iTunes music stores. When the iPhone 6 was launched it was unavailable and the Party mouthpiece, the Global Times opined that " whomever has an iPhone 6 deserves to be looked upon with despise ". Maybe that is how the Chinese forced Apple to invest $1billion in Didi Chixing, a taxi hailing company. Perhaps, Apple needs to change from its business model and look for new avenues. We hope India can be a partner in its new ventures.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

We are more similar than we think.

An African man was beaten to death in Delhi in an argument over hiring an auto-rickshaw. He was rescued by a group of locals who called the police and took him to hospital but he died. On the same day a restaurant owner in Delhi was shot to death over a paltry bill of Rs 1,085. A few days back a young man was shot to death in Bihar for daring to overtake the car of the son of a local politician. Last year a student was beaten to death in Bengal because he would not go to a political meeting. Why is killing someone so easy in India? Because our conviction rate for violent crimes is in single figures. Even when someone is convicted of murder, because of public outcry, prison is a very pleasant experience where you are allowed out to get married. In Bihar murder convicts sentenced to life in prison are attractive as grooms. The media created an unnecessary hysteria about racism in the case of the death of the African man, overlooking the fact that he was rescued by local people. At this time of the night there were probably very few people around which is why it took time for the locals to chase off the goons. This naturally enraged embassy staff of African countries stationed in Delhi. Indian businesses in Congo have been attacked and people have been hurt. Before they start to accuse Indians of racism Africans should reflect on their own attitudes. Skin whitening creams are extremely popular in African countries, even though some of them have dangerous chemicals in them. On the other hand, African-Americans in the US are very scornful about women who are not black enough or are from mixed parentage. We cannot forget that 96% of blacks in the US voted for Barack Obama only because he is black, when no one had heard of him before. Authorities in France rejected an offer of a software which can mine data to pinpoint impending terror attacks out of the vast amounts of intelligence because the company was from Israel. To wear a Jewish skullcap in Paris is to invite attacks from Muslims who are immigrants from African countries. European countries are building walls to keep out migrants from Africa. Hundreds of thousands of Africans are migrating to Europe in very dangerous conditions. Why? There is violence inside Congo against the President, Joseph Kabila. There is violence in Burundi against an illegal third term by the President. Civil war has led to severe famine in South Sudan. This is not to condone racism which is abhorrent. Violence in any form, against anyone is unacceptable. African nations and India must create safe societies at home if we are to get respect from others. We are similar in many respects, aren't we? 

If central banks are uncertain, what will they do?

A Professor of Economics, who served as the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and was on the Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets interest rates in the US, writes that there are 4 ways to think about the US economy. One group thinks that monetary policy by the central bank is of little importance as long as inflation stays low and stable. The second group thinks that the central bank should act proactively to stop inflation from rising because interest rates take time to be effective. The third group thinks that low interest rates just create bubbles and increase borrowing to dangerous levels. The fourth group thinks that inflation is still too low in the US and the Federal Reserve should provide additional stimulus, along with fiscal stimulus by the government. The inflation rate in the US is 1.1%. Every group is partially right so what is the Federal Reserve going to do? No wonder Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve, is uncertain. She used the word " uncertainty " 10 times in a speech last month. Britain will vote in a referendum on whether to stay in the EU on 23 June. Germany is running a current account surplus of 8% but is imposing austerity on the rest of the Eurozone. The US economy is probably not as strong as made out to be. The Eurozone has just approved another loan for Greece but has only postponed debt repayment to 2018. The International Monetary Fund wanted a debt write off but swallowed its pride and joined the deal. Another crisis in the Eurozone may still happen. Despite introducing a negative interest rate in January in the hope of generating inflation in Japan the yen has been strengthening which keeps prices depressed and prolongs deflation. The central bank of Japan could buy dollars from the market to try and devalue the yen but that may start a currency war. The G7 is meeting in Japan as of now and will probably warn Japan not to try to depreciate its currency. Japan is not the only country with a negative interest rate. The trouble is that these methods have never been tried before so central banks have no idea as to what to expect. By making it expensive to save money central banks hope that people will spend more, boosting demand, and banks will lend more, boosting investment and thus creating jobs. But people do not always behave in predictable fashion so there must be some risks that no one can predict. India is naturally worried. While other nations and the Eurozone are trying to devalue their currencies and generate inflation we cannot afford that luxury because our retail inflation is already high. Switzerland is holding a referendum next month on whether to give everyone a basic income of $1500 whether they work or not. Is this one form of 'helicopter money' that economists are talking about? Money flying on the wind, now that is real uncertainty.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Is equality the answer to inequality?

The International Monetary Fund reports that India is a highly unequal country, with a huge difference in earning between the rich and the poor. The IMF compares changes that have occurred in Asia from 1990 to 2013. India's Gini coefficient, in which 0 means perfectly equal society while 100 means that 1 person controls all the wealth, has increased by 6.18 points to over 50, but during the same period China's Gini coefficient has jumped by 19.61 points, from around 30 to higher than India. In 1991 India was bankrupt and had to pledge 67 tonnes of gold to avoid defaulting on its debts. After 1991 the economy was gradually liberalized and began to grow faster than before. China's growth was even faster so that it has become the second largest economy in the world. So does it mean that inequality increases as a country grows richer? A rich country provides easy opportunities for an individual to become rich while in a poor country everyone is equally poor so there is more equality. This would seem to be true when we see that Albania's Gini is 29 and Belarus boasts of a Gini of 26, compared to the United States, the richest country in the world, with 41. Yet, Switzerland has a Gini of 31.6 while Sweden's Gini is 27.3 and these are rich countries. The US has the largest number of billionaires, so maybe it is not because the rest of the population is poor but because some are just super-rich. The Scandinavian model where high taxes provide cradle to grave social security for every person could be the reason why these countries are more equal. India has a higher proportion of people living in poverty, compared to Indonesia, Vietnam and Philippines and our middle class is much smaller than East Asian countries. Why? We have reservations in higher education and government jobs for those deemed to be disadvantaged by being of lower caste. There are innumerable social security schemes for the poor. From MGNREGA to midday meals in schools to help in building houses, the government generously hands out trillions of rupees to the poor and disadvantaged. Trouble is that to finance all these schemes the government has to tax the middle class heavily which maybe why India does so poorly in building up the middle class. The US also has a lot of social security schemes to help the poor. At 83.59% India has the highest proportion of people working in the informal sector, where wages are lower and there is no safety net. Is it possible that discrimination by our government is responsible for inequality? Oxfam estimates that just 62 people hold as much wealth as 3.6 billion people. People are born unequal. Perhaps we should concentrate on eliminating poverty and not inequality, by supporting all the people, as in the Scandinavian model, rather than through discrimination. Only non-politicians can even think of that.

Monday, May 23, 2016

It is a marathon, a good monsoon will help.

As we come to the second anniversary of the Modi government what are its achievements? Depends on who you ask. A professor from JNU (where else?) sees the glass as almost empty. " While the government may have done well on the deficit front, partially helped by the collapse in petroleum prices, its track record in reviving the economy is still shrouded in mystery, despite claims of improvement by the Central Statistical Office based on the new national accounts series," he writes. Exports are down, manufacturing is down, bank lending is down, private investment is down but retail inflation is still high. So what does the learned professor recommend to remedy the dire situation? Increase handouts to farmers. Perhaps, the professor should read about Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez won 3 terms with handouts. Now there is nothing to hand out. Or about Brazil where the President has just been suspended but the government's program of targeted subsidies, called the Bolsa Familia has won praise for lifting millions out of poverty. On the other hand, if you read the President of the BJP, the economy is projected to grow at 7.8% and the future is rosy because of all the fantastic things the government has done. As usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle. The government has indeed undertaken major reforms, but important ones are still outstanding, and it needs to improve implementation. The government has signed a formal agreement with the Reserve Bank to set monetary policy, it is committed to bringing down the fiscal deficit and it has set up an Expenditure Reforms Commission to take a look on how the government spends our money. Politicians in India use public funds as personal wealth, to be used as bribes, to win elections. Which is why retail inflation never seems to be permanently under control. The Modi government has recognised that dishing out subsidies will not solve the problem of poverty. It has embarked on programs of empowerment where citizens are treated as partners, rather than beggars, to have coins and chapatis thrown at them. So, is it time for celebrations? Definitely not. The biggest problem for India is its huge population, crammed into a relatively small land area. The greatest challenge for the government will be to provide jobs for the hundreds of millions of young people joining the work force every year. Manufacturing is the only solution for creating jobs but you need land to set up factories. You also need land for agriculture because people need food. And there has to be a market for what we make. Reserve Bank Governor, Raghuram Rajan is right to warn of expecting very high growth rates. A start has been made. We pray that mother nature helps with a good monsoon. 

Sunday, May 22, 2016

Band aid is of no use, we need to find the cause.

Nobel Peace Prize winner Kailash Satyarthi writes a harrowing story of 2 children in Telengana, aged 12 and 8 years, who died of thirst while waiting for the mother to return with some water to drink. The mother was found unconscious with an empty water bottle by her side. Drought is causing immense suffering to children. Parents have withdrawn children from school and sent them out to work. Girls, some as young as 3 years of age, are being married off, presumably to boys who live in areas where water is plentiful. " We cannot afford to neglect our children. They cannot be the future we want, if they do not survive the present," he writes. Absolutely. Every person, every parent will agree with that statement, without reservation. So what is the solution? Mr Satyarthi urges the government to spend on relief for children because,"....it is imperative that the government takes speedy measures to assess and analyse the effects of drought on children and ensure no child in the affected areas is forced into child labour, bonded labour, child marriage, or is trafficked, or compelled to leave school." Who forces children into child labor, bonded labor or sells them for cash? The parents do. The problem in India is that people have the right to have as many children as they want but no responsibility for their safety or welfare. Recently a 72 year old woman gave birth to a boy in Amritsar after IVF treatment. Her husband is 79 years old. Who looks after the child if both parents die? After all, you can beat menopause but you cannot beat death. At the very least the doctor should be struck off. If we are to relieve the suffering of our children we need to study why there is a compulsion to give birth to children when they do not earn enough to support them. The fertility rate per woman has been declining in India. In rural areas both members work in 35% of families and 42% of them do not have any children, known as DINKS. Which means that family planning services are widely available and people are aware of them. Why then do some, especially those who cannot afford to, produce children? Is it because they get more subsidies from the government, is it because they can force children to work, or is it because children act as collateral to borrow money from local moneylenders? If the parent does not repay the loan or if the parent dies the children automatically become bonded labor until the loan is paid off. Why does bonded labor persist when it was banned by an act of parliament in 1976? Because poor people are 'vote bank' while children do not vote. An occasional child may escape the the prison of poverty but if there are too many then the task becomes impossible. To find a cure Mr Satyarthi must seek the cause. Without fear.

Bored with bread, everyone wants cake.

After results of elections in 4 states, and the Union Territory of Puducherry, were announced legions of pundits have been educating us with their valuable analyses of the results. The National Democratic Alliance, consisting of the BJP and its allies, won Assam with 86 out of a total of 126 seats, the Left Democratic Front, consisting of CPM and its allies, won Kerala with 91 out 140 seats, the AIADMK won Tamil Nadu with 134 out of 234 seats and Trinamool Congress won West Bengal with 211 out of a total of 294 seats. Congress managed a consolation victory in Puducherry winning 15 seats, while its ally, the DMK won 2 seats, giving it a majority in a 30 seat assembly. Apart from giving the power to loot to one set of politicians, as opposed to another, waht difference do these results make to India as a nation? Mamata Banerjee of West Bengal and J Jayalalithaa of Tamil Nadu join Nitish Kumar of Bihar and Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi in dreaming about becoming Prime Minister in 2019. Both Nitish Kumar and Kejriwal have adopted a strategy of abusing the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in extremely uncouth language. The rout of the Congress Party is blamed on Rahul Gandhi, with Mamata Banerjee's acid observation," Rahul Gandhi is a Narendra Modi asset." It is not really Gandhi's fault. He has been brought up in a sterile atmosphere of extreme wealth and Z+ security and has never had to sweat in his entire life of 46 years. He probably has no knowledge of how people live, how they earn a living, what difficulties they face, how they cope with endemic corruption and how the lack of quality education, healthcare and law and order make our lives a struggle for survival. His is a classic case of 'Let them eat cake'. Did he serve biscuits after his dog had eaten out of the plate? That would be taken as an extreme insult in India. Embarrassed, he did not attend a meeting with the Indian Youth Congress yesterday. Ms Sonia Gandhi tried to cheer Congress workers by saying," If one sticks to principles, no failure is permanent." Absolutely, and therein lies the problem. What principles does the Congress have? Milking Gandhi and Nehru generates diminishing returns as 65% of the population is below the age of 35 years. The poor are not satisfied with handouts and the educated are fed up with corruption, bred from crony capitalism. As for the BJP, it should not get carried away. As long as it is seen a party of Hindi-wallahs it will not be popular in the south or the east. It must remember that Hindus have many gods and goddesses so banging on about cows and vegetarianism creates anger. To embrace all Hindus it must ban castes. Regional satraps will only fight. We need a party of unity.

Friday, May 20, 2016

We have been told the problems, what is the solution?

The world seems to be locked into a cycle of low growth where the weakness of advanced economies, such as the US and Europe, reduces demand for the output of manufacturing economies, such as China, Japan and South Korea, who cut their import of commodities, hurting countries, such as Australia and Brazil. India is shining only because " In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king," according to the Governor of the Reserve Bank. His words caused a lot of commotion because they were deemed to be politically incorrect, when there is a growing demand to stop censoring movies and student rabble agitating for 'freedom of expression' to show solidarity with terrorists. Apparently, there are 3 narratives for global growth. One is that growth will remain weak for a prolonged period because advanced economies will take a long time to recover. The second view is that central banks will become increasing ineffective in stimulating growth and the third view is that financial markets will be volatile. Low growth is blamed for the popularity of anti-establishment candidates like Donald Trump in the US and Nerbert Hofer of the far right Freedom Party in Austria. British Prime Minister, David Cameron is desperately trying to keep Britain within Europe. The year started with huge volatility in stock markets around the world and there was fear of another recession. Long term low growth results in higher unemployment, long term unemployment results in loss of skills, which in turn, leads to lower growth. Central banks moved quickly to supply more liquidity to markets by slashing interest rates to negative which is supposed to force people to spend more and banks to lend more, by making it expensive to park extra funds with the central bank. Bond prices rose with investors willing to accept negative rates to keep their money safe. With so much cheap money in rich countries and borrowing costs at near zero emerging markets saw a flood of money looking for investment opportunities, resulting in overheating, inflation, asset-price bubbles and currency appreciation. Global value of real estate rose to $217 trillion in 2015, which is 3 times the value of the entire GDP of the world, Of this, 75% or $162 trillion is in residential properties. Raghuram Rajan has warned that unconventional monetary policies are becoming less effective, while costs are rising. As last ditch effort economists are seriously discussing the possibility of 'helicopter money', which was first proposed by Milton Friedman. The idea is to hand out wads of cash to people, presumably the poor, which will increase spending and thus stimulate the economy. India has been pursuing similar strategies for decades, as in MGNREGA, and cannot compete against other nations in tit-for-tat devaluation of currency to help exports, because India is one of the few countries where inflation is always a threat. We are doing very well at present. Hope this continues. 

It is not easy to die in India.

The government has posted a draft of Medical Treatment of Terminally-Ill Patients Bill on its website for feedback from the public. This bill seeks to provide guidelines for terminally ill patients to be allowed to die by withholding treatment, what is known as passive euthanasia. Unfortunately, as with everything in India, the entire debate will be hijacked by those who scream the loudest because they are totally convinced in the infallibility of their opinions, presided over by those who have awarded themselves god like status, so that we, the people, will be ignored, as is usual. Already several provisions in the bill are causing controversy. The youngest age at which a patient will be allowed to refuse treatment is 16 years, which is enraging activists, who point out that you cannot get a driving license or get married before the age of 18 years, so how can you choose to die. Doctors will have to decide whether the patient is mentally competent to give such consent, but we know doctors will be under enormous pressure from hospital administration to keep a patient alive as long as possible so that the final bill can be increased. If the patient is incapable of providing consent the family may approach the High Court for permission to withdraw treatment, which means they will be easy prey for lawyers, who will not hesitate to gouge as much out of them as possible. What about a person who is in a persistent vegetative state and needs to be fed and cleaned without the need for life support? Should food and water be withdrawn so that the person dies of hunger and thirst? In which case does it become active euthanasia instead of a passive one? These questions arise because of the case of Aruna Shanbaug who was kept alive for 42 years by the caring dedication of the wonderful nurses at KEM Hospital in Mumbai, while interfering busybodies wanted to force her death by stopping all nutrition. Fortunately the nurses won the case and looked after her another 4 years. The most important point in end of life care is to provide adequate pain relief along with sympathetic nursing. Adequate pain relief means drugs derived from opium, usually morphine. A morphine infusion is given continuously and patients have the option of taking a bolus anytime they feel pain. And therein lies the problem. In India there is great sympathy for criminals so that laws are passed to punish the innocent. To stop addiction to drugs laws have been made so stringent that chemists do not sell opium derivatives. They will go bankrupt bribing government inspectors. In Delhi it is virtually impossible to find anti-histamine injections, such as pheniramine. These drugs have been around for over 50 years and are excellent in treating insect stings, vertigo and other sudden allergic reactions. Thus the debate about euthanasia is useless without adequate drug support. Just noise.  

Thursday, May 19, 2016

You cannot treat robbery with band-aid.

A book, 'Dissenting Diagnosis', written by two doctors seeks to expose the massive corruption in today's corporate hospitals where patients are ruthlessly exploited for profits. Every patient is seen by a number of doctors when there is no need. Unnecessary surgeries are carried out for which the doctor receives perhaps 10% of the bill, the rest going to the hospital. Large numbers of tests are ordered but a lot of them are not carried out. These are called 'sink tests' because the samples are thrown into the sink and the money is divided. Why have doctors sunk so low? Why have they stopped caring for patients who trust them with their lives? Doctors do not fall from trees, they are the product of the same society where corruption is a way of life, where you cannot get planning permission for building a house without paying a bribe and where seats in medical schools are for sale. Three girls committed suicide when they received no tuition even after paying large sums of money in fees to a medical school in Tamil Nadu. An online survey found that 70% of people in Delhi feel that corruption is at the same level as before, after change of government. Even after paying millions in fees and even higher sums under the table as 'capitation fees' the quality of education in medical colleges is considered very poor, according to a report in the US. Whereas Isaac Newton's Laws of Motion or the Raman effect, named after CV Raman, are still accepted as facts, causes, progress and treatment of diseases are changing constantly, which makes medical education the toughest among all subjects. Indeed, medical textbooks are out of date the day they are published so doctors have to study continuously to stay in touch with latest developments. Which means they must attend conferences where the latest research is discussed. Since most of the research takes place in the US and in Europe it costs a lot in travel and hotel expenses, which most doctors cannot afford. The government has passed a law making it a criminal offence for pharmaceutical firms to fund doctors because they may prescribe expensive medicines unnecessarily. How moral. Except that civil servants are allowed to accept foreign tours funded by foreign organisations, which could be working for the CIA, the ISI or the PLA. Is it any wonder that every country threatens us? The CBI reckons that over 2,400 top civil servants are corrupt, which means at least twice that number. The government will not allow doctors to work in other countries by denying them no-objection certificates. Lawyers are allowed to charge whatever just to lend their names and lose cases. All this is not to excuse bad medical practice but if things are to improve doctors must be treated with respect. Get the crooks, that is politicians, civil servants and lawyers far away. Let the profession heal.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

The more money we get the happier we will be.

Poverty is the most thoroughly researched subject in economics, with professors spending vast amounts of time proving that if you hand out wads of cash to the poor they are able to spend more and feel much better. Er, if you hand over Rs 10 million to each of us we will also spend more and feel better and if you hand out Rs 100 million we will be joyous. However, the poor are not so happy. They feel that since they are the 'vote bank' money should be transferred from high street banks to them, and they produce lots of children to ensure that the vote bank is always growing. The government has started Direct Benefit Transfer, or DBT, to subsidise cooking gas for the poor, called PAHAL. " With nearly 150 million registered beneficiaries, it is probably the world's largest DBT programme ever," writes a professor." Yet, it accounts for only about 3.5% of the total annual flow of government subsidies. The provision of around Rs 200 billion for the scheme is about 8% of the total provision of Rs 2.50,433 trillion for subsidies in the 2016-17 Union budget. And Union subsidies in turn account for only about a third of total subsidies provided by the Union and state governments taken together. Thus, DBT under PAHAL is just a beginning in using DBT as the medium for providing subsidies. There is still a long way to go." God help us. The government provides subsidised foodgrains, kerosene and sugar through the Public Distribution System, or PDS, which is overseen by an army of civil servants to make sure that taxpayers do not benefit from the cheap food. If the PDS is also changed to DBT then the government will save enormous amounts of money. Very logical, except that you cannot open a bank in every village so how do villagers access money transferred to the nearest branch, which maybe miles away, with the dirt road converted to a muddy swamp during rains. To protect the health of the poor the government is giving away cooking gas connections at a cost of Rs 80 billion, but it turns out that villagers still prefer to use firewood and dried cow dung for cooking because these are free. So a lot words for nothing. However, doling out trillions of rupees in completely non-productive income is bound to have consequences for the economy. The result is that inflation is always bubbling away, ready to steam ahead. Retail inflation jumped to 5.39% in April from 4.83% in March. After falling for 17 months wholesale prices have moved into positive territory as food prices rise. Rural people spend 54.2% of income on food, so are very sensitive to food prices. Seems that politicians are playing a cute game to get rid of the present Governor of the Reserve Bank, who believes in keeping a tight lid on retail inflation. They probably want someone who will reduce interest rate, in the belief that low interest rate will stimulate growth and win them elections. The Congress thought the same. Where is it now? 

Monday, May 16, 2016

The call of nature according to the law of nature?

Why is the Maharashtra government so determined to punish girls from poor families, who dance for a living in bars in Mumbai, when the Supreme Court has explicitly rejected the ban on dance bars, which was imposed by the Congress in 2005? Dance bars prevented girls from being forced into prostitution by poverty. Why waste time on persecuting poor dance girls when politicians should be focusing like lasers on the terrible drought affecting the state? Everyone understands that a drought is an act of nature and is no one's fault so this illogical behavior must be to divert attention of the people. From what? From the enormous irrigation scam which maybe a major reason for the terrible human misery. Similarly, in this year of presidential election when the US should be debating on how to mitigate the weakness in the global economy, climate change and the conflicts in the Middle East what is the hottest topic of debate? The topic creating the greatest heat is on what bathroom a person will be allowed to use. North Carolina passed a law in March which says that a person has to use a public bathroom according to the gender of his birth and not according to gender of choice. This has caused enormous outrage among liberals who see this as an affront to transgender people and want bathrooms to be gender neutral. Seeing his opportunity Obama has asked all public schools to allow students to use a bathroom of their choice or lose their funding from the government. What we do in a bathroom is intensely private and most people would be embarrassed to perform bodily functions in front of the opposite sex. More than a million people have decided to boycott Target, a department store, because of its decision to allow people to use bathrooms of their choice. As parents, we can understand their discomfort. Who would want to take their little daughter into a bathroom which is being used by a man who thinks he is a woman. Is being normal means being guilty of majoritarianism? A former transgender, who went from being a man to being a woman and is now back to being a man, disagrees with the policy of gender neutral toilets, presumably having used both male and female bathrooms. If a man is transformed into a woman surgically and has a certificate to say so that is fine, but should we allow a man to use a ladies bathroom just because he feels he is a woman. If a man is not a man there can be no rape. The liberals do not want anyone to focus on Obama's miserable record as a warmonger who gloried in killing. Ukraine has been divided, Libya is a mess and in South Sudan civil war has created a brutal famine. Instead he has a group of people to create news, just like the old Stasi used to do. Bar girls and bathrooms, are diversions to hide crimes of politicians. People swallow the fiction. 

Sunday, May 15, 2016

Societies are naturally left handed.

The US has a total of 538 electoral college votes and a majority of 270 is required to be elected president. Most states have a winner take all system so winning a state by even one vote gets a candidate all the electoral college votes of that state. In the last six general elections, from 1992 to 2012, 19 states (and Washington DC) have always voted Democrat and 13 have always voted Republican. The states that vote Democrat have more electoral college votes because they are more highly populated so winning those 19 states will give 242 votes to Hillary Clinton, presuming that she is the candidate against Donald Trump. If she takes Florida with 29 votes she reaches 271 and wins. So Trump could lose by winning 30 states out of 50. Trouble for Trump is that Clinton is likely to get an overwhelming share of minority votes, partly because of Trump's proposal to build a wall along the border with Mexico. Trump has promised to ban all Muslims from entering the US. Recently Clinton's lead against Bernie Sanders among nonwhite voters has come down. Sanders is also a Democrat so Clinton may hope to take most of the nonwhite votes against Trump, especially after his incendiary comments. Maybe not. If blacks see illegal immigrants from Mexico taking away their jobs they may vote for Trump. If there is one big terrorist attack in the US or in Europe after the party conventions in July Trump will waltz into the White House. Journalists in the US are heavily biased towards Democrats, about 4:1. Facebook is investigating claims that it is biased against conservative stories. If there is a left wing bias in rich countries in poorer countries it is enormous. In Brazil, President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended, awaiting an impeachment trial. She has been charged with winning re-election in 2014 by manipulating government accounts, to hide the growing deficit. Her party is accused of corruption, especially in the state oil company Petrobras. However, most of those opposing her in Congress are also accused of serious crimes. So why the anger against Rousseff? Because of a severe recession. The economy contracted by 3.8% in 2015, mainly because of the collapse in commodity prices globally. A combination of unemployment at 9% and inflation at 10.7% is hurting the poor who feel that it is because the elite is stealing everything. However, Rousseff still has supporters who say that social programs reduced poverty and inequality. In neighboring Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro has declared a state of emergency as the economy has collapsed completely. Here too the social handouts of Hugo Chavez were very popular. The people are angry now but once the economy improves they will once again vote for the party promising handouts. Just like people in India voted for the Congress after Vajpayee improved the economy and threw them out when the economy tanked. Mr Modi should watch out. If he does improve the economy, as he wants to do, the Congress will be lurking. That is why poor countries stay poor.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

If it is for our benefit why worry about basic freedoms.

An Under Secretary at the Home Ministry was caught by the CBI for stealing files related to a NGO run by Teesta Setalvad. He claimed that his boss was putting pressure on him to favor Ford Foundation which is an American organisation based in New York, with assets of $12.4 billion, which is $1,240 crore in Indian terms. With that kind of money you can do an awful lot of damage. As is usual in India, the official has since gone missing. We love a good mystery, don't we? When the present government came into office it suspended activities of several foreign funded NGOs. We have every right to say that we are not beggars and we do not want funds from abroad, thank you very much. The Ford Foundation lobbied the US government to be allowed to carry on its activities in India. If someone refuses your help will you shove it down his throat? Mystery. The US government twisted arms of our government until it surrendered and allowed Ford Foundation to carry on doing whatever it was up to. Why? What has the US government to gain from the Foundation's activities? We know that the ISI handed over Osama bin Laden to the US in 2011 so that Barack Obama could win his re-election in 2012, following which Obama rewarded Pakistan with loads of sophisticated weapons. So, his government forcing ours to allow Ford to carry on here reeks of a foul stink. Our government has decided to register all babies born in government hospitals, which means poor people, with the Unique Identification Authority of India, or UIDAI, so that every baby has an Aadhar number. " Enrolling children immediately after birth will ensure better delivery of entitlements and services under Integrated Child Development Scheme and various government-run programmes," said the Director General of UIDAI. It will also help in tracking missing children said another official. Oh, goody. It is for the benefit of people, just like Ford Foundation. The only problem is that babies cannot give informed consent to such an intrusive procedure and parents are willing conspirators because they will benefit from handouts. It takes time to check fingerprints and retinal scans so why not just tattoo a number on the forearm or plant a chip under the skin, which can be read by a RFID scanner from the outside. After all, babies cannot object. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has rejected the idea of free speech and held that defamation will remain a criminal offence. This is only natural since contempt of court is the most serious crime in India. So Ramalinga Raju has to pay a fine of Rs 50 million for stealing Rs 71.36 billion and causing losses to shareholders of Rs 140 billion but when Times Now mistakenly used a picture of a judge in cheating case, for which the channel apologised profusely, but apparently not sincerely enough, it was fined Rs 1 billion. India is the 3rd most dangerous country in the world for journalists. Wonder why?

Friday, May 13, 2016

Eliminate the resource curse by reducing our resource.

An ex-professor of Jawaharlal Nehru University, (where else?), writes that creating jobs is the most important task for the government. There were 2.3 million applications for the post of 368 posts of peons in UP last year and there have been recurrent agitations for reservations in government jobs by various communities and yet, the unemployment rate as a proportion of the total labor force was a mere 2.7%. How can we say that there is a lack of jobs when the unemployment ratio is perhaps the lowest in the world? Because, " In a country like India, poor people just cannot afford to be unemployed and find whatever work they can, simply to subsist. A significant proportion of their work, however, is neither sufficiently recognized nor rewarded. There are some who work hard for a living. There are many who work very hard but do not earn enough for a living. There are others who work but are paid little for their labor," says the article. Why? Because," in 2011-2012 the total labor force in India was 472 million ". That is the combined populations of the US, 319 million, Germany, 81 million, and Britain, 65 million. " India's most abundant resource, labor, is underutilized," the article says. Precisely. It is a classical 'resource curse'. Figures are interesting. Employment growth was picking up from 1983-1994, was strong from 1994 to 2005, when there was a BJP government and then falls off steeply from 2005 to 2012, when the Congress was in power. In fact, 5 million jobs were lost when the economy was growing strongly and employment in agriculture fell when trillions of rupees were spent on rural employment guarantee scheme. Another point to note is that employment was growing when the interest rate was very high, varying between 9 and 12% and the prime lending rate was higher than 12%. This article should have been written in 2007, when ministers were partying at Davos. Trouble is that the global economy is weak and the IMF keeps reducing the expected growth rate for this and the next year. With its economy faltering China is dumping its goods on world markets, depressing prices and hurting local industries. Governments are frozen in a state of inertia because market reforms and reforms of labor laws are difficult. Lack of jobs, and resultant poverty, makes people easy prey for the unscrupulous. HDFC Life was running a racket in Mumbai where young men were offering loans at very low rates if anyone bought insurance from them. We desperately need to create millions of meaningful jobs, but for that we need to change our rules so that business can flourish. Most of all we need to reduce our population. Else, nothing will work.

Fantastically corrupt? " Oh, bad luck."

So, Queen Elizabeth was heard saying that Chinese officials were " very rude ". When told by Police Commander, Lucy D'Orcy, that she was in charge of security during President Xi Jinping's official visit last year the Queen responded," Oh, bad luck " and then went on the say," They were very rude to the ambassador." We in India know that the Chinese are a completely uncivilised, barbaric nation, who call in our ambassador in Beijing at 2AM to hand over a threatening note, and eat every living creature, like monitor lizards. Earlier, the British Prime Minister, David Cameron told the Queen that Nigeria and Afghanistan are " fantastically corrupt ". This was on the eve of the anti corruption summit in London. In response, the President of Nigeria said," I am not going to demand any apology, what I am demanding is a return of the assets." Thereby putting his finger right on the spot. All these years Western countries have been the bankers for all the stolen money of the world. They suck in money stolen in poor countries and keep it if the thief dies or is jailed. After all, the heirs cannot demand a return of stolen money can they? India has been losing $51 billion every year from 2004 to 2013. Britain and the US are the biggest recipients of stolen funds. Having benefited from theft for decades why have the western countries suddenly become so pious? Not because they are honestly worried about our losses. Ever since the crash of 2008 Western countries had to spend vast sums of money to support their banks and desperately need to raise revenues to reduce deficits. Britain is unable to reduce its budget deficit, hence its national debt has risen to 83.7% of the GDP. Foreigners launder stolen money through London's booming property market. Real estate prices have risen so high that first time buyers cannot afford to enter the property market. Just as property prices in India are at crazy levels but show no sign of falling. The Governor of the Reserve Bank has asked builders to reduce prices to clear their inventory, probably because that is one sure way to clean black money out of the system, but having paid out billions in black money builders are reluctant to lose out. As usual Western countries are speaking with forked tongues. They only want to increase their own tax revenues but not help other countries. Mallya is relaxing in London . Britain refuses to hand over Christian Michel, the middleman in the AgustaWestland deal. Before that Lalit Modi departed for London and if the pressure becomes unbearable, maybe even Dawood Ibrahim will go and live in London, the cesspit of all the scum in the world. Fantastically corrupt? Depends on the eye of the beholder, does it not?

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Robot owners and circus clowns, is that the future?

We Indians are aware of all the problems besetting our country. Poverty, malnutrition, farmer suicides, environmental degradation and rising inequality are some of the most pressing problems. The problems have continued for 68 years because politicians refuse to face the truth in case they lose subsequent elections. As Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of EU, once said," We all know what to do, we just don't know how to get re-elected after we've done it." It is much easier to throw handouts and pretend moral outrage if someone objects to charity on taxpayer money. In 1991 India came close to defaulting on our loans and the Reserve Bank had to sell gold for the country to survive.This led to economic reforms by the then Prime Minister, Narasimha Rao which propelled the country towards higher growth. Economic reforms are blamed by some for the rising inequality and therein lies the problem. Is it morally superior for everyone to be equally poor or should everyone have the opportunity to become rich through clever ideas, hard work and the ability to take risks. It is unacceptable that there are 2,083 people in India who possess in excess of $50 million while there are hundreds of millions who live on $2 a day. So what can the government do? There is a limit to how many people the government can employ because it would not be able to pay salaries, perks and pensions of countless millions. All it can do is to provide good education, training in skills and the economic conditions to create rewarding jobs. Problem is that you cannot force people to take advantage of opportunities and the end result may increase inequality. Even in the US some 32 million adults are unable to read. All this means " that there is no silver bullet for the government to guarantee full employment and solve structural inequality. The government can do something - but it remains to be seen exactly what, and how much." Things might be about to get much worse. As artificial intelligence improves there maybe a " great decoupling ", in which " advances in productivity, mainly driven by the development of digital technology, and the resulting economic growth, no longer cause employment and workers' incomes to rise ". As robots take over jobs presently done by humans, in driving, in factories and even white collar work, such as accounting, there will be need for fewer humans. In some countries populations are declining but in India it is still increasing. Humans will have to move into services such as entertainment, such as ballet dancing and classical music. But everyone does not have the physique for ballet and some people are tone deaf. Should the government open dancing schools? Maybe juggling as well.

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

The greasy pole of the global value chain.

An angry article compares liberalisation in international trade to a Ponzi scheme, perpetrated by the West, especially the European Union. According to the EU Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrom," The fundamental role of EU trade policy must be to create economic opportunity for people, starting with people in Europe." Nothing wrong in that. The European Union is a collection of 28 countries with free travel and free trade between member countries. Within this bloc the Eurozone consists of 19 countries which have a common currency, the Euro, with the European Central Bank setting a common monetary policy, but leaving each member to set its own fiscal policy. No wonder the EU economy is under severe stress. Some think that another crisis is almost inevitable while others point to the 0.6% growth in the first quarter of this year, which would translate to an annual growth rate of 2.2%, as a sign of the economy beginning to recover. Trouble is that unemployment rate is still above 10%, banks are still reluctant to lend despite a negative interest rate and prices fell 0.2% in April, which shows the weakness in consumer demand. Latest figures show a fall in manufacturing, as the boost from the collapse in commodity prices begins to wear off, giving rise to fears of deflation. Germany, as the largest economy in the Eurozone, is blamed for not spending enough, which is shown in its high savings rate and a current account surplus of over 30 billion Euros. No surprise that the EU wants trade deals to be beneficial to itself. The EU wants Global Value Chains to provide " energy, raw materials, or intermediate goods or services ", which is taken to mean that developing countries should provide basic commodities and parts while the EU will manufacture high value end products. To that end the EU wants that " trade must also be about values and principles as much it is about economic principles ". In other words the EU wants to use its 'values' on human rights, labour and environment to gain an upper hand in trade. Countries, which depend on exporting commodities are suffering because of the fall in prices. Whether they are borrowing from future generations is something they have to work out. Saudi Arabia is increasing oil production despite weak prices. We do not know whether it wants to cripple US shale oil production, hit Iran's earnings from oil or to sell off as much as it can before renewable energy makes oil redundant. European countries have been used to looting raw materials from their erstwhile colonies and are unable to adjust to equality in trade. The US was founded on the blood of indigenous Indians and then grew rich on slavery. Now they want to use trade as a weapon. The only solution to grow wealthy through education, innovation and producing high value products. Create our own Ponzi scheme.

Monday, May 09, 2016

Even rich children are not getting educated. Why not?

A survey, conducted between January and July 2014, by the National Sample Survey Organisation highlights the wide gap in access to education between the rich and the poor. The survey shows a massive gap between the lowest and highest quintiles in terms of income, and between rural and urban populations. No surprise there. What is surprising are the figures for the richest fifth of the population. Taking only the urban people, 89% of the richest fifth attain primary education, 72% attain secondary education, 66% attain higher secondary education and a paltry 31% attain education above higher secondary. Primary means up to Class VIII, secondary is up to Class X, higher secondary is up to Class XII and college thereafter. The question is: Why are so few of richer children getting educated, why not 100%? It is not as if we have hundreds of Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg, dropping out of college to launch companies spanning the entire globe. Why are 69% of children in the economic upper fifth of the population not going to college? It cannot be because of a lack of seats in colleges, because education is very big business and we see a new college opening almost everyday. The Governor of the Reserve Bank has warned students not to take education loans for useless degrees. So here is a terrifying thought: Only 31% of top 20% of the population are attending college and the vast majority of them are getting rubbish degrees. Which means that India is a nation of duffers. Only 7% of MBA graduates are fit for employment, the rest 93% earn less than Rs 10,000 a month, if they get any job at all. Americans are most unimpressed with the standard of our medical education. But private space industry in the US is opposed to Indian Space Research Organisation because it is able to put satellites into orbit at very cheap rates. So a tiny few are up there with the best. If our education system improves we will be unbeatable. Over 80% of engineering graduates know nothing. In fact, those who are learning skills earn much more than engineers and MBAs. What happens to these graduates? After spending hundreds of thousands getting a degree can they train as plumbers or electricians? It is not just a loss of face, their worth will drop precipitously in the marriage market, especially since gender selection has drastically reduced the number of eligible girls. The Vyapam scam in Madhya Pradesh in which the process of selecting all the candidates for medical and engineering colleges and for jobs in government was found to be controlled by criminals is an example of the rot in the system. The Bihar government found money to reward highly paid MLAs but had no money to pay school teachers. Shows what politicians think about education. If people remain stupid it is easy to lie to them. Win elections.