Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Will they accept our invitation?

"As several countries face supply distortion of many products due to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in China, a report by HDFC Bank said that India can turn into an alternative global sourcing base for many items." "The report, however, observed that the regulatory mechanism in India, limited production capacity and competition from countries like Vietnam and Cambodia in manufacturing sector are the major constraints for India in becoming China's replacement." In fact, India imports 68% of active pharmaceutical ingredients and 40% of electrical machinery and equipment from China. "India needs to act proactively to create an environment that is favorable to global manufacturing so that once the COVID 19 crisis blows off, international organizations can look at us as trusted supply chain partner," wrote Pankaj M Munjal, Chairman & MD, HMC, a Hero Motors Company. "India is developing a land pool nearly double the size of Luxembourg to lure businesses moving out of China, according to people with the knowledge of the matter," wrote Shruti Srivastava. "Land has been one of the biggest impediments for companies looking to invest in India, with the plans of Saudi Aramco and Posco frustrated by delays in acquisition." "The government in April reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the US and through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out of China, according to India officials who asked not to be identified, citing rules on speaking with the media," reported Bloomberg. "But apart from ensuring land, water and sewerage, the most important change India needs to make is to give a clear guarantee that the government will not introduce retrospective tax amendments," said Ajay Sahai, director general and chief executive officer of the Federation of Indian Exporters. The tendency of trying to extract taxes from businesses through coercive and unfair methods, as in the telecom sector, is a big disincentive to invest in India, wrote Andy Mukherjee. "In a recent address to the nation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made 'be vocal for local' his rallying cry," wrote Nikhil Inamdar. "As things stand, Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Korea and Taiwan seem to be favorites to benefit from the backlash against China." Business Standard columnist Debashish Basu noted "data released by the department of industrial policy and promotion shows that inward FDI (foreign direct investment) declined in fiscal year 2018-19 for the first time in six years", wrote Prof Vivek Dahejia. In addition to the huge cost of relocating from China, the collapse in demand due to the coronavirus lockdown will not tempt many companies. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 5.4 in April while manufacturing PMI fell to 27.4. "But unlike manufacturing, the output loss in services is permanent in nature. While we can buy more than one book or gadget later (after the lockdown), we cannot bunch up the use of services, such as, say, travel," wrote Aparna Iyer. We can invite companies, but will they accept. If they cannot make money.     

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