Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Uses of the coronavirus.

"The idea that the war against coronavirus can be waged by scientists, epidemiologists and other men (and women) in white coats -- the so-called experts -- strikes me as being naive," wrote Swapan Dasgupta. He does not explain why it would be better to leave decision-making to ignorant people with no knowledge of medicine, statistics or behavior of infections. President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil has been against lockdowns to control the spread of the coronavirus and even joined protests against them. As a result, total number of confirmed cases has risen to 101,147 with 7,025 deaths. Prime Minister Narendra Modi "opted for the most drastic option of a total national lockdown, including the suspension of public transport" so that his "approval ratings have touched dizzying heights". Three cheers. "The most startling lesson from global experience is that shutdowns may be killing almost as many people as the Covid virus," wrote SA Aiyar. "Excess mortality was 60% in Belgium, 51% in the Netherlands, but only 12% in Sweden," which is the only country to refuse a complete lockdown. There was worldwide surprise and admiration at the low levels of deaths due to the virus in India. The government started relaxing the lockdown from 4 May, dividing the country into red, orange and green zones, when the number of cases is rising. There were 3,900 new cases in the last 24 hours with 195 deaths. There are predictions that the Indian economy will contract by 16-20% in the April-June quarter of this financial year and by 1-2% for the entire year. 122 million Indians lost their jobs, taking the rate of unemployment to 27.1%, reported Bloomberg. Taking advantage of low international crude oil prices, both central and state governments have markedly increased taxes on fuel in India, instead of slashing prices to help trucking, railways and airlines industries. What were the other gains from the lockdown worth destroying the economy?  The lockdown was announced by Modi, giving 4 hours notice, at 8 pm on 24 March. While the sudden cessation of public transport trapped millions of migrant labor in cities with no money or jobs, it did not stop Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, of the BJP, proving his majority in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly on 25 March, boycotted by the Congress. Sit-in protests against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) led by women had been going on since 15 December. Protesters were cleared by Delhi Police on 24 March, following which there have been a spate of arrests of women who took part. "Illiterate women in burqas sitting with babies on their laps and eating biryani purchased with foreign funds," was the description by West Bengal President of BJP Dilip Ghosh. A student of Jawaharlal Nehru University was charged with sedition by Delhi Police for organising a riot at Jamia Milia Islamia. Baijayant Jay Panda of the BJP railed against leftist liberals and the foreign media for taking a jaundiced view of India. Perhaps, he can explain why Modi celebrates Independence Day when he is still using a draconian British law against citizens. Will Modi's approval rating remain at dizzying heights if the economy tanks to dizzying lows remains to be seen. We still pay the price. 

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