Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Everyone for sale.

Rajya Sabha member for the Congress, Birender Singh has asserted that people have paid up to Rs 1 billion to " buy " seats in the Rajya Sabha, which is the upper house of the parliament. msn.com, 29 July. " Not one, but I will give you names of twenty ( such ) people," he said in front of a gathering in Yamunanagar in Haryana on 28 July. He said that one Rajya Sabha member " had told me that his budget to become a Rajya Sabha member was Rs 100 crore. He said that his work was done in Rs 80 crore and he saved Rs 20 crore." " People who will spend Rs 100 crore to enter Rajya Sabha, will they think about this poor country?" he asked. " They establish themselves there ( Rajya Sabha ) and then become part of the deals happening there," he said. In India the people have no say in who gets into the Rajya Sabha. Various state assemblies select who should represent the state. Governing parties are able to reward trusted servants who the people reject as utterly distasteful. Being an MP has many rewards. You get a salary of Rs 50,000 per month plus Rs 45,000 a month for office allowances. HT, 13 May, 2012. Rs 150,000 a year for free calls from 3 phones. Rent free fully furnished flats with free washing facilities. 50,000 units of free electricity per year. At Rs 6 a unit that would be a cool Rs 300,000. Rs 20,000 per month as pension for life. Rs 2,000 as daily allowance. Rs 45,000 a month as constituency allowance. 4,000 kilo liters of water every year. Free First class or Executive class air-conditioned travel in trains. That is why when you, as an ordinary person, buy a confirmed first class train ticket well in advance will not given a seat number because if any of these scoundrels decides to travel on the same train you maybe downgraded or thrown off the train and your ticket refunded. 125% of air fares. Subsidised cafeterias inside the parliament. Free chauffeur driven cars with flashing red lights and armed guards. All with taxpayer money. Finally, Rajya Sabha membership may provide opportunities to make some real lolly. If you can become a minister. Rajya Sabha member and Railway Minister, Pawan Kumar Bansal's nephew, Vijay Singla was arrested by the CBI on 3 May taking a bribe of Rs 9 million to get one Mahesh Kumar a seat on the Railway Board. Foreigners complain that doing business is difficult in India. We say India is the freest country because everyone is for sale.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

It's every one for himself.

Exports dropped by 1.4% in the April to June quarter while non-oil imports rose by 5.8% generating a trade deficit of $50.2 billion. Exports declined 4.6% in June. The suspicion is that exporters and importers are fudging their figures. ET, 29 July. Exporters report lower earnings so that they will be required to bring back lesser foreign exchange into India. The balance is deposited in accounts abroad. That is because they are afraid that the rupee will depreciate more against the dollar and they will get more rupees if they delay repatriation. Importers, on the other hand, claim to have spent more than they have because that allows them to keep foreign exchange outside the country because if the rupee falls they will have to pay much more for the same goods. Global Financial Integrity has calculated that India is among the top ten nations in terms of illicit outflow of money, with an estimated $123 billion flowing out in 10 years to 2010. The government naturally portrays these people as immoral without explaining why people are resorting to such behavior? The reason is that the economy is at the point of collapse because of the corrosive social spending by the Congress to win elections. That has generated double-digit inflation, soaring deficits, falling rupee and declining growth rate. Undeterred, the Congress passed the Food Security Bill through an ordinance which will add another Rs 2.5 trillion to spending without decreasing malnutrition. A World Bank report says," Poorly designed food subsidies that lack transparency, accountability, and promotion of healthy foods most likely will fail to sustain positive effects either on nutrition, inequality or growth, and instead could take resources away from more productive uses and threaten macroeconomic stability." In other words, money should be spent productively, such as on infrastructure, which will improve business and create jobs instead of wasting on bribery to get votes which will cause economic meltdown. Trouble is that Indian politicians have absolutely no sharam or izzat so they keep lying. Our most revered Finance Minister said defiantly that India still has the second highest growth rate at 5%. Not true. Growth at 5% with inflation at 10% is contraction of 5%. The government is the enemy. To survive it is every man for himself. No one for India.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Cannot build on a bubble.

Nandigram all over again? We all know how the present Chief Minister of Bengal, Mamata Banerjee agitated against Tata's Nano factory at Nandigram. So successfully that Tata left to establish the factory in Gujarat and now no one wants to invest in Bengal. Seems that a repeat of that fiasco is about to take place at Manesar in Haryana where Maruti, India's most successful car company, has been hit with a demand for Rs 5 billion as compensation for land procured for its factory. This factory manufactures diesel engines as well as its most successful models in the Swift range. While the origins of the dispute appear murky it seems that 602.4 acres of completely undeveloped land was acquired by Haryana Industrial and Infrastructural Development Corporation in 2002 and given to Maruti, for which Maruti paid Rs 1.1890 billion in 2008. The owners of the land were unhappy and litigation ensued. In February, 2011 the Punjab and Haryana High Court increased the rate of compensation for the land from Rs 2.815 to Rs 3.740 million an acre which means that the company may have to pay an additional Rs 5-8 billion in compensation. The Supreme Court has agreed. Maruti is already building a huge plant in Gujarat and may decide to shut down the plant at Manesar, handing the land back to the original landowners who will suddenly find that their land is not worth even a fraction of the value they are dreaming of. Also, 20,000 workers will lose their jobs and the Haryana government will lose Rs 80 billion in revenues. TOI, 29 July. All these disputes arise because the price of land in India has risen to completely unrealistic levels. One month back a house built on 800 sq yards in South Delhi was sold for Rs 850 million. At the same time a house in New York 1, built on 2 acres of land and consisting of 7 bedrooms with 7 bathrooms, was being advertised for $5.5 million which amounts to Rs 300 million. Clearly there is a humongous property price bubble in India which is underpinning inflation and putting downward pressure on the rupee. The only solution is to let prices fall to realistic levels as has happened in Spain, Ireland and the US. But then a lot of companies will go bust and banks will totter. Just as in the US and Europe. The Congress wants to protect property prices, control inflation, support the rupee as well as stimulate growth. Only a bunch of cuckoos will dream of growth on a bubble.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Short term measures will work short term.

Even as the Reserve Bank is trying desperately to somehow stop the rupee from falling below 60 to a dollar ministers are rushing around destroying the RBI's credibility by proclaiming loudly that these measures are for a short term only. Earlier this month the rupee fell to 61.21 to the dollar setting off a cacophony of alarm bells for the Congress. The Congress has committed itself to keeping the rupee from falling below the 60-to-a-dollar mark, whatever it takes. However, the Congress has also committed itself to a growth rate of over 6% for the year. Unfortunately for us both are not possible. To protect the rupee the RBI must increase interest rates, not by a piddling 25 or 50 basis points, but by at least 200 basis points, or even higher, so as to control inflation. Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil have already raised rates but the Congress will not let the RBI do the same. Indeed the Congress forced the RBI to cut interest rates 3 times this year even though the Consumer Price Index has remained stubbornly at around 10%. Instead the Congress fellows have been predicting that inflation was definitely going to fall and growth rates will pick up again. Sadly for them the economy is not a balloon that will float up with hot air. So the RBI has been selling dollars to support the rupee so that our foreign exchange reserves have fallen by $985.4 million to $279 billion, which would be sufficient for 5 months of imports. Livemint, 27 July. Even that could be in jeopardy if oil prices jump, a real possibility if the troubles in Egypt and Tunisia escalate. The RBI has also been trying to decrease liquidity in the markets by selling bonds and treasuries and through Open Market Operations. The aim is to starve banks of money to stop them from buying dollars and increase short term interest rates to support the rupee. However, the market does not believe the politicians or the RBI. The RBI sold bonds maturing in 2015 at yields of 8.9982%, those maturing in 2020 at yields of 8.6747%, those maturing in 2025 at yields of 8.4629% and those maturing in 2032 at yields of 8.5747%. This when the Repo rate, which stands for interest rate in India, is 7.25%. Clearly the market believes that inflation will remain high till 2032 which will prevent interest rates from declining. Short term measures do not work long term. Nobody believes liars.

Saturday, July 27, 2013

Is there any hope left?

After one heavy rain shower last week large parts of Delhi were under water. A bus got submerged under Minto Bridge, which is a route to New Delhi station. This nonsense repeats itself year after year. Seems that the High Court in Delhi set up a panel to oversee cleaning of drains this year but as usual nothing has been done. In response to a Public Interest Litigation filed by a NGO, Nyaya the Court asked," We are not interested in reports....what are you going to do? Will we continue to rot in Delhi?" Delhi has 3 municipal corporations, known as chorporation in Kolkata, one state government and the central government. This means more scoundrels with their snouts in the trough. Delhi PWD Minister, Raj Kumar Chauhan said," The PWD took the work of de-silting all drains as a challenge and it was accomplished. The corporations have proved to be lethargic and their response has been lukewarm. They are more interested in getting funds from the city government and misappropriating them." However, charges for parking and electricity are set to rise. Meanwhile, only a few days after the death of one of CBI's old friends, Ottavio Quattrocchi the CBI was back to its games when it wanted to drop all charges of corruption against Mr Vincent George, who is an aide to Mrs Sonia Gandhi. The CBI had alleged that Mr George had amassed huge wealth after 1990, the same year that it registered the complaint in the Bofors case. It found that Mr George had commercial and residential properties in posh areas of South Delhi, properties in Bangalore, Chennai, Kerala and agricultural land outside Delhi, as well as Rs 15 million in bank accounts. TOI, 25 July. Clearly, whatever Mr George does is highly lucrative. In an example of the Congress wasting taxpayer money the Haryana government has been paying compensation to farmers whose crops were ruined by heavy rains in 2011. Farmers pay no taxes, are given cheap or free electricity and can earn over Rs 200 per day under the NREGA scheme without doing a stroke of work. We understand that many farmers survive on outputs of tiny farms, the result of repeated divisions as a result of producing too many children, but there are very rich farmers, especially politicians, who pay not a penny in taxes. At the very least farmers should be made to pay insurance premiums in good years which can then recompense them in bad years. Thankfully, they have made a hash of it and have sent out cheques for Rs 2 and 3 which farmers are refusing to encash. No doubt politicians and civil servants will be enjoying. Is there any hope for us?

Friday, July 26, 2013

Who are they kidding?

After receiving a bloody nose on 18 July the Reserve Bank capitulated to bond traders on 24 July and agreed to pay 11.0031% on Rs 70 billion worth of Treasury Bills maturing in 91 days for which it had paid 7.4769% on 10 July, a massive jump of 353 basis points. Livemint, 25 July. It also sold Treasury Bills maturing in 364 days at 10.4649% interest as compared to 7.5476% on 10 July. Yields on benchmark 10 year bonds have risen to a 14 month high of 8.5%, which is 95 basis points higher than rates on 15 July. It has come down to 8.16% on 26 July. On 18 July it withdrew a sale of Rs 120 billion worth of Treasury Bills from auction because traders wanted high yields and could manage to sell only Rs 25.32 billion of bonds out of Rs 120 billion offered for auction through Open Market Operations. There were no takers for its regular auction of Rs 150 billion of bonds so the underwriters bailed the RBI out by buying Rs 35 billion worth, but only after the bank raised commissions several times. The government wants to borrow Rs 5.79 trillion for this financial year of which it wants to borrow Rs 3.49 trillion before 30 September. The government has borrowed Rs 2.1 trillion thus far and it will certainly not want to pay interest at these rates. The effect has been disastrous for banks. When yields go up bond prices come down which means billions of rupees of losses for banks which are holding large amounts of bonds. If the government pays such high rates of interest it becomes the standard for the rest of the market. Commercial Paper rates jumped to 10.45% but then came down to 10%. Rates on Certificates of Deposit have risen by 200 basis points. " If government has to pay 11%, what will corporates pay for loans and bonds - 16-17%? It's a very difficult situation. Nobody had thought of this kind of rates," said Devendra Dash, a senior bond dealer with Development Credit Bank. The Oriental Bank of Commerce, a public sector bank, lowered lending rates by 25 basis points just recently, because of bullying by the Finance Minister, but has raised interest it pays on 1 year term deposits by 50-75 basis points. This is stupid, fingers-crossed economics. All this frantic activity clearly shows that the RBI is taking its orders from a bunch of foot-licking creepy crawlies who, in turn, are taking orders from a partially educated foreigner. The idea is to create shock and awe by raising interest rates to very high levels for a short time to prevent the rupee from falling and then bring them down well before elections in May 2014. However, bond and currency dealers are no suckers to fall for such infantile tricks. They will be looking for blood the moment the RBI tries to reverse policies. Silly bluff.

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Wipe out Hindus with US help.

Seems that a group of Members of Parliament have written a letter to President Obama not to grant a visa to Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi to enable him to visit the US. The US has refused to give Mr Modi a visa because it holds him responsible for not doing enough to prevent the death of a few Muslims in the riots in Gujarat that followed the deliberate burning to death of 59 Hindu pilgrims in the Sabarmati Express at Godhra in Gujarat in 2002. The US is the country where Jim Crow Republicans in the House have refused any cooperation regarding the economy with a black president and those in the Senate have used filibuster to hold up the appointments to key posts for years. Never mind if the economic does not grow, if unemployment remains at over 7% or millions of immigrants are deemed illegal even if they are paying taxes. This is the country that supplies the Pakistani army with sophisticated weapons to kill Indians and is running from Afghanistan with its tail between its legs, leaving the country to the mercy of the ISI of Pakistan and its mad dogs, the Taliban and the LeT. At least George Bush wanted to help India with nuclear power but since this gasbag has become president he has harmed trade relations with us while bending over to China. But why the rage against Mr Modi? Is it really because of the riots? After all, riots have been taking place in India since independence and are still taking place. Or is it because they are terrified that if Modi were to become Prime Minister he might really go after corruption, exposing how these scoundrels have been looting the country for decades. Modi is not married and has no children while the other political gangs are controlled by families which pass their wealth and power down to their offspring as they cling onto their looted treasures. But the worst is the lies they are spreading. This is what Special Court Judge, PR Patel had to say. " For Godhra, this is not the first incident of burning alive of innocent persons belonging to the Hindu community." Riots occurred in 1965,1969,1971,1980, 1981, 1982, 1988, 1990 and 1992. In most of these years the Congress would have been in power. " Suffice it to say that it would not have been possible for the assailants to gather near the place of incident, to make assault with deadly weapons, to set the coach S-6 on fire and to kill 59 persons and to cause burn injuries to 48 others within a short span of 20 minutes, stopping the train at a lonely place and pouring approximately 140 liters of petrol inside the said coach, if there was no pre-planned conspiracy at all," the Judge said. Do they want to wipe Hindus out of existence with US help? After all Obama is an expert at killing innocents with drones.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

A family of squatters.

The propaganda channel, BBC devoted every minute of yesterday on the baby born to Prince William and Kate Middleton. Even the American channel, CNN spent the entire morning showing the same scenes and stupid chatter about the weight of the baby, how the father was there and how important it all was. For us Indians it was one big yawn of incomprehension. While the British have just one family we have many. While the Royal Family in Britain is ceremonial, with many palaces but no powers, the families in India control politics with their own armies of thugs to beat up any opposition and passing their whips down from one generation to the next so as to continue to suck the lifeblood out of the nation. Right at the peak is The Family with dual nationalities. Each of its 3 members is squatting on public houses worth Rs 4-5 billion each. One member of The Family has never been elected to any office, has no official post and has never done anything for the country. She also has an extremely rich husband who was revealed to own properties worth over Rs 4 billion by Ashok Khemka, who was then promptly transferred. As if this is not bad enough, the power and stickiness of The Family comes from distributing trillions of rupees of taxpayer money in handouts to legions of malnourished, naked, illiterate wretches, who vote en masse to keep The Family in power in an embrace of doom for the country. Having dual nationalities The Family has no interest in the welfare of the nation of India. It will do anything to stay in control which provides it with the kind of luxuries, power and glamour that the new-born prince of Britain can never dream of. And if the economy collapses because of their parasitism and things start to get hot they can use one of their other nationalities to scoot to safety. Just like Ottavio Quattrocchi did all those years ago. As for the wretched poor they think that they are so fortunate to get free money under the NREGA scheme, grains at Rs 2 a kilo and Rs 1500 to give birth in a government hospital. So they keep on breeding, not realising that they are being kept alive, not to climb up the social ladder to live as human beings, but as swarms of rats, thrown handfuls of grain to keep The Family in cream and silk. To only way to wealth and power is to latch onto one of these families and obey any order , no matter how criminal. Naturally, The Family, being the richest and the most powerful, has the maximum numbers of such sycophants who run around like pet hounds, hoping to pick up bones thrown away by members of The Family. While the Brits are proud of their Royal Family we are groaning under a family of squatters allowed to destroy the economy by thousands of fawning creepy crawlies.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Do they know what they are saying?

In August 2012 Pratip Chaudhuri, Chairman of the State Bank of India demanded that the Cash Reserve Ratio should be scrapped. This is the money that banks are required to deposit with the Reserve Bank as a safety measure to guard against sudden demand for money. All central banks enforce such safeguards and it was lax vigilance on the part of the Federal Reserve that precipitated the sub-prime crisis and the demise of Lehman Brothers. CRR is also used by the RBI to decrease liquidity in banks in its efforts to control inflation. However under pressure from the Congress the RBI has been reducing the CRR even though the Consumer Price Index has stayed above 9% since 2010. In January it was reduced to 4% from 4.25%. Maybe Mr Chaudhuri was caught between Congress pressure to lend more in a futile effort to increase growth and the need to hedge against rising Non Performing Assets, as bad loans are called. Things have become much worse since last year as years of uncontrolled inflation has led to a sudden drop in the rupee. The RBI is now desperate to prevent any further falls because imports, especially oil, will become much more expensive, adding to inflation and decreasing growth. Already various agencies such as the IMF is predicting lower growth rates and there are warnings of a credit downgrade to junk status if the rupee falls further. If that happens it will be bye bye Congress in next year's general elections and the Congress will do anything, including selling all our gold, to stay in power. The RBI also enforces a Statutory Liquidity Ratio which a bank has to hold, again for safety. This consists of cash, gold or securities, such as company bonds or shares, approved by the RBI. The SLR has a maximum upper limit of 40% and a lower limit of 23%. It is at 23% now. With such a lot of reserves one would imagine that our banks are the safest in the world and able to cope with any demand, however large it maybe. Not so. Seems that the State Bank itself will need an additional Rs 2.3 trillion by 2018 to meet Basel 3 norms which were enacted after the crisis of 2008. " We need about Rs 2.3 trillion of additional capital for Basel 3 up to 2018. Out of this Rs 1.5 trillion is of Tier-1 and the rest Rs 800 billion in Tier-II capital," said SBI MD and Chief Financial Officer of SBI, Diwakar Gupta. According to the RBI the banking system will Rs 5 trillion to implement Basel 3. Livemint, 22 July. Bond risks for the SBI have jumped by 86 points to 275, the highest since October 2008. " The rupee's rout could be a further drag on lenders' asset quality," said Vibha Batra, of ICRA Ltd. Do they really knnow what they are talking about?

Monday, July 22, 2013

When only self interest matters.

Last week the Reserve Bank decided to limit the amount banks could borrow from it through the Marginal Standing Facility. Normally banks could borrow at 1% above the Repo rate which is taken as the interest rate in India. Now banks can borrow up to Rs 750 billion at 8.25% and anything more than that will attract interest at 10.25%. The aim of the RBI is to tighten money supply so that banks are limited from buying dollars from the market, which would support the rupee. If exporters feel that the rupee will become stronger in the near future they will bring their earnings back from abroad to take advantage of a strong dollar while importers will wait for the rupee to strengthen to lower their costs. The RBI also decided to sell bonds worth Rs 120 billion through Open Market Operations on 18 July to further suck liquidity out of the market. In effect the RBI was trying to raise the cost of borrowing without actually raising interest rates. Naturally traders, having read RBI signals of higher interest rate, wanted much higher yields because if the cost of borrowing goes up for everyone the government has also got to pay more. This the RBI refused to pay. So the bank was able to sell only Rs 25.32 billion worth of bonds. It also cancelled a Rs 120 billion Treasury Bill auction. Livemint, 22 July. These are short term bonds which get rolled over automatically so by buying these back the RBI actually infused Rs 120 billion worth of liquidity into the market. A frustrated trader, who wanted to remain anonymous, asked," You raised the borrowing costs, but you do not want to accept bids at higher yields......what is that you want?". " The entire exercise seems to have been done without realising the possible impact on bond markets." Pathetic as these measures were the Finance Minister rushed out to make sure that they failed. " These measures ( RBI decisions ) are intended to quell excessive speculative activity in the foreign exchange market and to stabilize the rupee. I believe these measures are for the short term and certainly should not be interpreted as a prelude or precursor to some kind of tightening policy," he said. Livemint, 17 July. Why is the Congress so terrified of high interest rates which will reduce inflation, increase bank deposits, support the rupee, and reduce the attraction of gold as people get better returns from term deposits, thus helping to reduce the Current Account Deficit? What are they hiding? Are they afraid of a collapse in property prices, have they been promised money for election expenses by rich people or they do they want to borrow massive amounts to bribe the " vote bank "? Whatever the reason, it is only to hide the dire state of the economy till elections are over. After that, let India collapse. Who cares?

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Everyone for sale.

Even though elections could be 9 months away the Congress is going all out to buy support. It has been pouring a deluge of taxpayer money to bribe its " vote bank ". It has bypassed parliament on the Food Security Bill through an ordinance. This will add another Rs 2.5 trillion to government spending. The Backwards Regions Grant will cost Rs 750 billion. Bihar has been promised special backward status which will guarantee tens of billions of rupees and UP, which elects the maximum number of MPs to parliament, has been promised an increase in plan allocation. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, father of the UP Chief Minister, has executed a swift about turn after the CBI decided to drop charges of amassing Disproportionate Assets against him. Just a day ago he was totally against the Food Security Bill but said yesterday," Why should we oppose the bill? We are in support of it. The issue will be debated in parliament and things will fall in place." TOI, 21 July. A few months back charges of corruption on the Taj Corridor Case against Ms Mayawati were dropped, since when she has been supporting every noxious action of the Congress. However, the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Duvvuri Subbarao has not been offered an extension to his contract. " No offer has been made so far. It is a hypothetical question. As I said before I must move on," said Mr Subbarao. Certainly he has done everything in his power to support the Congress. He cut interest rates to 4.75% in April 2009, just a month before the last general elections, even though the Consumer Price Index had reached 9.37% in March 2009. Instead of raising interest rates to control scorching inflation he has cut them 3 times this year. As a result the rupee has fallen 11% since April adding to inflation as the cost of imports, especially oil and coal, have shot up. The Wholesale Price Index has risen from 4.75% in May to 4.86% in June and Retail Index was 9.9% in June. Consequently Industrial Production has fallen by 1.6% in May and exports are down 4.6% in June. Perhaps the Congress has left him dangling from a hook - Obey us and you get another 5 years in your cushy job. Or else. This gigantic waste of resources is dressed up as " inclusive growth " which means dishing out taxpayer money to the poor in exchange for votes.  Planning Commission member, Arun Maira said, " The government needs to change its orientation towards inclusion if we want a more inclusive, more sustainable and faster growth. If inclusion is to give handouts to those who currently do not have enough, it is not sustainable because the money to give that handout will come from the economy." Everyone for sale. How shameful is that?

Saturday, July 20, 2013

Q was bigger than India.

So Big Q, as Ottavio Quattrocchi was known, has had the last laugh. For years different governments in India played games with him as the CBI chased him around the world but somehow could never make the case for his arrest and extradition to India to stand trial for bribery. Must have cost the taxpayer in excess of Rs 1 billion but to no avail. Did he have a guardian angel in Delhi keeping the CBI on a leash? We will never know. Mind you the CBI boys would have had a fantastic time as they sampled the expensive fleshpots of the world. The millionaires' paradise of St Kitts was a nice touch. On 24 March, 1986 India signed a contract with the Swedish firm of Bofors to supply 400 Howitzer field guns at a cost of $15 billion. On 16 April, 1987 Swedish radio claimed kickbacks had been paid to secure the contract. On 22 January, 1990 CBI registered a complaint. On 21 May 1991 Mr Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated. On 29 July, 1993 Q left India to avoid arrest. Already 6 years had elapsed since the exposure of the scam and even 2 years after the death of Mr Gandhi Q was being protected. So strong was his protection that even when the BJP was in power from 1998 to 2004 they did nothing to bring him to justice. On 20 December, 2000 Q was arrested in Malaysia but nothing came of it. When the Congress came to power in 2004 they unfroze his account so that he could access his bribe money and then all charges were dropped in 2010. On 24 April, 2012 the former head of the Swedish Police, Sten Lindstrom revealed himself. He said," There was no evidence that he ( Rajiv Gandhi ) had received any bribe. But he watched the massive cover-up in India and Sweden and did nothing. Many Indian institutions were tarred, innocent people were punished while the guilty got away. The evidence against Ottavio Quattrocchi was conclusive. Through a front company called AE Services bribes paid by Bofors landed in Quattracchi's account which he subsequently cleaned out because India said there was no evidence linking him to the Bofors deal. Nobody in Sweden or Switzerland was allowed to interrogate him." That is why he was being sheltered in India. " Under pressure from Swedish and Indian media and with the threat of a cancellation of the contract hanging over them, Bofors sent its top executives to India with the one-point agenda of giving out the names. Nobody of any consequence received them," he said. Bofors led to Bhopal when Anderson of Union Carbide was personally escorted to his plane after the massacre of thousands. Q maybe dead but the traitors are still alive. Find them and hang them.

Friday, July 19, 2013

Improvement is impossible without the truth.

Our most revered Prime Minister said today," Our economy has had a bad year but things will improve soon." Not true. The economy has been showing signs of sickness for years but you seemed to be blind to it. The Current Account was in surplus in 2002, 03 and 04 but has been in ever increasing deficit ever since you sneaked into the PM's chair without being elected by the people. It was -0.3% in 05, -1.2% in 06, -1% in 07, -1.3% in 08, -2.3% in 09, -2.8% in 10, -2.7% in 11, -4.2% in 12 and -4.5% in 13. " We will leave no stone unturned to ensure that the economy rebounds. I appeal to each one of you not to be overcome by negative sentiment," the Prime Minister said. Why do you dish out bromides? You were built up as a World Famous Economist by the freeloading press. So give us facts and figures, graphs and charts. Talk about import and exports, about currency fluctuations, how you see the US, Europe, Japan, China and the emerging markets performing in the medium to long term and what policies you are taking to secure the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But you cannot? Is it because you have forgotten economics, having spent your life as a file shifting bureaucrat? Or is it because you were made prime minister precisely because you were seen as weak and without principles, someone who will obey any order to waste precious taxpayer money however disastrous for the economy. We do not expect a foreigner to care for India but in your 9 years as Prime Minister you have done more damage to this country than Pakistan. The fiscal deficit was 6% in 2009, 6.5% in 10, 4.9% in 11, 5.9% in 12 and 5.2% in 13. Yet you have allowed more wasteful social programs such as the Backward Regions Grant costing Rs 750 billion and passed the Food Security Bill through ordinance, adding another Rs 2.5 trillion to government expense. The Consumer Price Index has been consistently above 8% since 2009 and yet your government forced the RBI to reduce interest rates. You should have increased rates to above the rate of inflation to bring it down as Mr Narasimha Rao did in the 90s, but then he had courage and was a patriot. Instead you allowed the last Finance Minister, who, like you, has never been elected, to increase taxes on everything adding to inflation and choking consumer demand. The result is that the rupee has collapsed adding to inflation, sales are falling as demand falls and growth is set to keep falling. Have you heard of stagflation? In panic your government is sending fellows to the US to beg for investment. Shameful. Tell the truth, please. Only then can the recovery begin. 

Thursday, July 18, 2013

So what if children die.

A free midday meal becomes extremely expensive when 27 children die after eating lunch at a primary school in Bihar. Ten are still in critical condition. TOI, 18 July. Our politicians love to ooze kindness and charity by distributing handouts on taxpayer money to the poor so that they will vote for them out of humble gratitude. However, to dish out charity you need to have large numbers of desperately poor people who are ready to sacrifice their pride and self respect to be treated as beggars. And that is why our politicians continue to follow thoroughly discredited socialist policies instead of concentrating solely on making the country rich by developing continuous, steady electricity supply, smooth roads, so that we can drive from one end of the country to another in hours instead of days, and top quality education, so that everyone has an equal chance of becoming economically successful. Also limit such assistance to those who have only one child so that the population starts to contract. But all these take time and a lot of hard work. Much easier to divide the people by a system of reservations based on caste and tribe, promise a range of free goodies from electricity to laptops to color TVs and food grains at Rs 2 a kilo or free meals in schools. A victory may bring a minister's post which is when the big bucks can be earned through bribes and loot. Besides all social schemes can be looted at the local level keeping those lower down the pecking order happy. So children die. Bihar Chief Minister has become best friends with the Congress because he has suddenly discovered his true faith in secularism even though he was elected with BJP support. No problem embracing the traitors of the Congress for the sake of " minority votes ". Let the majority go to the devil. So much for " democracy " that all of them swear by. The Education Minister of Bihar has already concluded that the children were poisoned deliberately with some organophosphorus compound in a massive conspiracy. Since they are used freely as pesticides it would not be at all surprising if traces were indeed found on fruits and vegetables. A doctor said that the children had widely dilated pupils which would clearly rule out these compounds. The Minister was asked by John Sopel of the BBC last night whether he would take responsibility and resign. He was so shocked that anyone could even suggest such a thing that he went quiet for a while and then said that there was no need for such an " extreme step ". It was as if he had been asked to commit hara kiri. Hilarious. Power and pelf without any responsibility. So what if children die. 

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Desperate yet cowardly.

We have been writing since 2008 that Congress actions to win elections in May 2009 would lead to inflation, high fiscal deficit and a devaluation of the rupee. The MNREGA scheme which pays the rural poor for 100 days a year for doing nothing, increasing salaries of useless civil servants by 80% and forgiving all loans to farmers were acts of economic suicide for the country. Once you increase salaries or start handouts they cannot be reversed and farmers were borrowing large sums of money from banks, which are forced to earmark 40% of lending for " priority sectors ", because they knew that come the next election their loans will be forgiven again. The astonishing thing was that pundits of every description were busy trying to predict how fast the economy would grow and asking the RBI to reduce interest rates to stimulate growth, completely ignoring skyrocketing inflation. Worse, not one person had the honesty or courage to say that there is not enough money in the entire world to give handouts to 800 million people. Most of these fellows are still insisting that the rupee is going to start strengthening against the dollar, that growth will pick up soon and the RBI should reduce interest rates boldly by 100-200 basis points. Well, guess what? In blind panic the RBI suddenly decided to limit what banks can borrow overnight from the RBI to Rs 750 billion. Banks take short term loans from the RBI at 8.25% but now but from now will have to pay 10.25% if the amount exceeds Rs 750 billion. TOI, 16 July. The RBI will also sell government bonds worth Rs 120 billion to suck liquidity out of the market. Normally the RBI buys bonds to inject liquidity in, what is known as, Open Market Operations but is now going to sell bonds after a long time. This is because the bank has already sold billions of dollars to support the rupee and does not have enough in reserves to do so any longer. What the RBI should be doing is raising rates high enough to bring inflation down to around 3% but does not have the guts to do so because elections must be held by May 2014. In fact, the RBI has been timid throughout. Even though inflation was rising in 2008 the RBI was lowering rates. From 9% on 30 July 2008 interest rates were lowered in steps to 4.75% on 21 April 2009, just before the elections. Politicians in India are scum and will do anything to win elections because you cannot loot the exchequer without power and the Congress consists of spineless creepy crawlies who take orders from a foreign woman. The RBI has nothing to gain from elections so should focus solely on the economy. Sadly, it is too cowardly.

Monday, July 15, 2013

Foreign weirdos.

Seems that Asif Ali Zardari will have to scarper sharpish as soon as his presidential term comes to an end. Apparently there is a threat to his life and, more importantly, the Supreme Court is itching to reopen cases of corruption against him. These charges date back to when his wife, Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister of Pakistan and Mr Zardari was paid a commission on every government contract so that he became famous as Mr Ten Percent. Of course, Pervez Musharraf, the president before him, also hid in London for years before returning to Pakistan hoping to get a hero's welcome and get elected to parliament. Instead he is now under house arrest while he is being investigated for various charges, including murder. The man behind presidential pangs is the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Chaudhry who is taking revenge for some old grudges, as is customary in tribal areas. Perhaps he should be aware that he is coming up for retirement and then could be vulnerable to similar witch hunts. Meanwhile George Zimmerman who shot 17 year old Trayvon Martin in the heart on 26 February, 2012 was cleared of second-degree murder by a six woman jury, 5 of whom were white. Zimmerman was on neighborhood watch when he saw the teenager. He phoned the police that a black man was acting suspicious and was told to stay in his car and not to approach him. What happened after that no one knows but there was a scuffle and Martin, who was unarmed, ended up dead. The jury accepted the plea of self defense and found Zimmerman not guilty. How it can be self defense when Zimmerman was armed while Martin was not, followed the boy and engaged in a scuffle with him when specifically told by the police not to approach him is impossible to understand. Clearly the US justice system stinks and the police are a bunch of Neanderthals. Krittika Biswas, daughter of an Indian consul, was arrested on 8 February 2011 on a completely wrong charge of cyber bullying. She was brutally treated, her parents were not informed even though she was a minor at the time and was not even allowed the privacy of a toilet. It was later found that a Chinese villain was responsible but no action was taken against him, so scared are the Americans of the Chinese. While Biswas was not allowed the courtesy of being a diplomat's daughter the US used diplomatic privilege to force Pakistan to release Raymond Davies who murdered 2 Pakistanis in Lahore on 27 January, 2011. But at least the trial was held within one year and a decision was reached. Here Ramalinga Raju has still not been tried despite confessing to stealing money from Satyam in January 2009. We have no justice system.

Saturday, July 13, 2013

More of the same.

Not one but two of our most revered minsters, those of Finance and Trade, are in the US, apparently to beg for increased investments. TOI, 13 July. They are trying to impress the Americans about improving the business climate in India by promising a level playing field and boasting about a series of rollbacks, such as the delaying of GAAR. Is that true? Why have they waited 9 years to carry out these measures when the economy is close to collapse? Only because general elections are due next year and people are furious." The Finance Minister mentioned that while some concerns have been expressed about the current business environment in India, the policies adopted by the government of India are pro-growth and WTO compliant," said a statement from the Indian embassy about his meeting with Senator Max Baucus, Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. Really? If that were the case why is it necessary to travel so frequently to the US to reassure US businessmen. We hope that both gentlemen have taken their families, including son-in-law and sister of son-in-law, with them. What will make the Americans sceptical is the promise of setting up of a Mayaram Committee. Everyone knows of our committees which brainstorm for months before writing a report which is then binned by the politicians because it does not suit their primary desire of winning the next election. One of them promised to set up National Investment and Manufacturing Zones across India which will provide single window mechanism for approval of investments, fast tracking of critical infrastructure projects, use of technology to cut our paperwork, efforts to provide land and, er, setting up of another committee, this one to be chaired by the Prime Minister, the man who was built up as a World Famous Economist but has turned out to be the most incompetent in history.  What these gentlemen do not seem to understand is that businessmen do not like flipflops. They will not risk millions of dollars unless they are assured of a stable environment where laws do not change daily as happens here. And the reason laws keep changing is because economic policies are dictated by a foreign woman whose only interest is to win elections by bribing the " vote bank ", regardless of the cost. That was how the Congress won in 2009 which resulted in resistant inflation, rising deficits and the plunging rupee. Now they are engaged in frantic damage limitation but even as they are on a foreign junket on taxpayer money the government has passed the Food Security Bill by ordinance. There can be no economics without patriotism. Else it is just more of the same.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

It has taken 63 years but is still not enough.

The Supreme Court said yesterday that a politician must be disqualified from holding office if convicted of a crime deserving a prison sentence of 2 years or more. TOI, 11 July. Earlier the court had ruled that any criminal may stand for election for parliament or assembly and even hold a ministerial post but such a person could not seek employment as a police constable. Is it any wonder that all our politicians are criminal scum and keep the police and all investigating agencies under their control? " The only question is about the vires of section 8(4) of the Representation of the People Act ( RPA ) and we hold that it is ultra vires and that the disqualification takes place from the date of conviction," said the justices. So what is this iniquitous section that the judges struck down. It has a sub-section which says that a politician cannot be disqualified for 3 months after conviction and if he appeals to a higher court within that period then he can continue in office until the appeal is heard. Which of course means that politicians just keep appealing forever, which gives them time to threaten, bribe or murder witnesses and if they can drag it out long enough many of the witnesses may have died of natural causes. Sukhram is still enjoying life more than 25 years after being caught with mattresses stuffed with banknotes and 29 years after 5,000 Sikhs were murdered following Indira Gandhi's killing not one Congress fellow has been imprisoned. However, this judgement was totally inadequate because judges and lawyers are an integral part of this gross miscarriage of justice. Lawyers keep asking for endless postponements and judges agree docilely. After all, there are juicy sinecures to be had after retirement. Chairmanships of bodies such as the Press Council or the National Human Rights Commission or inquiry committees, set up to hoodwink the public, which write heavy reports that politicians ignore completely because by this time people have forgotten the original outrage because newer, even worse outrages have occurred. So it is perhaps best not to be very expedient. It is natural, therefore, that criminals are attracted to politics. Once elected they are able to control the exchequer, roam around the world with kith and kin at taxpayer expense and control the police so that every investigation meanders to a dead end. Just as Bofors did. That is why the prevalence of corruption in India is double the global rate. Globally 27% of people said that they had to pay a bribe when accessing public services. The figure for India was 54%. TOI, 10 July. The constitution was written 63 years ago. We are still suffering.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Protect the rupee like the flag.

It is time for frenzy on the Indian rupee. All the time we have been writing that uncontrolled inflation, useless government spending and rising deficits will result in a fall of the rupee all the heavies were forecasting that the rupee will rise to 40 to the dollar, the only debate being about decimal points. Now the same experts are busy trying to predict where the fall will end. A few are still hallucinating about its recovery. " The Reserve Bank of India intervened at the intra-day low level and this helped the rupee recover. We see the rupee appreciating from here to reach 59 levels in a month," said a treasury official with a public sector bank. msn.com, 9 July. The rupee fell steeply when the Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke hinted that the US will start cutting its bond buying program injecting $85 billion dollars per month into the banking system. They have not started cutting as yet so imagine what will happen if Bernanke, who is to speak this week, says that they will cut purchases to $75 billion per month, starting in September. That is a tiny cut of just $10 billion a month but it will surely send the rupee to below 65 to the dollar. As usual the Congress is blaming the " foreign hand " for this debacle saying that all emerging market currencies are falling. True, but the fall has been insignificant in countries where governments have kept inflation under control. Malaysia with an inflation rate of 1.7% has fallen by 3.6%, Indonesia with an inflation rate of 5.5% has fallen by just 2.2% while tiny Philippines with an inflation rate of 2.6% has fallen 6.8%. India with the highest inflation rate of 9.3% has fallen the most, by 11.7%. TOI, 10 July. This has nothing to do with any " foreign hand " but is entirely self created by the Congress by its wild social spending. The MNREGA scheme, forgiving of all loans to farmers, increasing civil service salaries by 80%, to win elections in 2009, has led to this. But the Congress is undaunted. It is going ahead with the Backward Region Grants costing Rs 750 billion and last week passed an ordinance for doling out cheap grains at a cost of Rs 2.5 trillion. The Turkish Lira has fallen by 7.2% and is predicted to fall further. The Turkish Prime Minister, Erdogan has won 3 elections by spending on social programs. Its inflation rate has risen to 8.3%, it has a high Current Account Deficit and unemployment rates are rising. The Turkish central bank is selling dollars to support the currency but experts predict further falls. Erdogan has accused foreign and domestic speculators and what he calls the " interest rate lobby ". Similar sins, similar excuses. It is our currency, just like the flag. Surely the government should respect and protect it?

Tuesday, July 09, 2013

The leaf of the poor neem is inadequate cover.

In a brave effort to reduce the Current Account Deficit our most revered Finance Minister decided to slash import of gold. He was scathing about the tendency of Indians to buy a useless yellow metal which just sits in bank lockers, earning no interest and with every chance of falling in value, like any other commodity. The import duty on gold was increased in stages to 8% from 2%, banks were barred from allowing gold import on credit, gold could be imported only on genuine orders, banks were asked to reduce sale of gold coins and bars and the RBI asked credit card companies to refuse purchase of gold on Equated Monthly Instalments or EMIs. TOI, 8 July. The measures were highly successful. So successful in fact that import of gold dropped a whopping 81% from 162 tonnes @ $8.4 billion in May to a mere 31.5 tonnes @ $2.5 billion in June. So, there must be high fives and double Patiala pegs in the ministry of finance even at this moment? Er, no. Seems that our jewellery exporters are complaining they are facing a severe supply crunch. India exported $43 billion of gems and jewellery in 2011-12 which was down 9.3% to $39 billion in 2012-13 because of falling orders from western countries facing economic problems of their own. Since our total exports amount to about $300 billion in the entire year this is a significant portion. With the price of bullion falling from around $1900 a troy ounce to around $1200 and the rupee falling against the dollar these companies could be making huge profits. Trouble is that we imported a record 969 tonnes of gold in 2011 and 860 tonnes in 2012. So if gold import is restricted then our jewellery exports fall off while if import conditions are relaxed ordinary people gleefully lap up tonnes of the stuff. Poor fellows. Talk about a rock and a hard place. Of course, what no one wants to admit is that all this is because of policies followed by the Congress. Before the Congress seized power in 2004 India imported gold worth $4.170 billion in 2001-02, $3.845 billion in 03 and $6.517 billion in 04. As soon as the Congress gets power the import bill shoots up to $10.538 billion in 2004-05, $10.830 billion in 06, $16.724 billion in 08, $20.725 billion in 09, $28.64 billion in 10, $33.876 in 11 and $53.4 billion in 12. So, in the 12 years of Congress disaster gold import has shot up from $6.5 billion to $53.5 billion, an increase of $47 billion a year. The prediction is for another record this year. This shows that people have no faith in the government and are hedging against inflation. So, what is the remedy advised by our FM? He is pushing mightily for reduction in interest rates which will weaken the rupee further and add to inflation. When you are naked why bother with a neem leaf.

Monday, July 08, 2013

Politicians are allowed any crimes, says Supreme Court.

Seems that the Meteorological office had been issuing warnings of severe rains in Uttarakhand on June 14, 15 and 16 but were ignored by the state government. TOI, 1 July. An advisory on 15 June specifically predicted " heavy to very heavy rains " for 16 and 17 June and even issued a clear warning to pilgrims going to Kedarnath, Badrinath, Gangotri and Jamunotri, known as the Char Dham Yatra. " Warning: Char Dham yatris are advised to postpone yatra by four days," said the warning. Cannot be any clearer than that can it? They also included Joshimath in their advisory. Predictably politicians and civil servants in Uttarakhand have dismissed any suggestion of responsibility in the death of thousands people due to the horrific flooding that followed. Chief Secretary of Uttarakhand, Subhash Kumar said," I have been observing this since the last 10-15 years. They always claim that it will rain heavily....Our warnings cannot be so specific. Heavy to very heavy rains coupled with land slides in places is not enough to suggest there is going to be a crisis of this magnitude." A few dozen people dying her or there is of no importance and no reason to cancel the yatra. Reminds us of the film, Jaws in which the town mayor refuses to close the beach to tourists because local businesses would suffer. The US is 3 times the size of India with just 300 million people so human beings are precious whereas we have 1200 million people crammed into a small country, breeding like rats. So, who cares. It gives VVIPs the chance to take a helicopter ride to see the devastating beauty of the Ganga as she cascades down from the Himalayas. But, callous as it may seem, this was not the real crime. The real crime has been committed over many years when people have been allowed to build houses on dry river beds, shady hotels have been built precariously close to the river and criminal gangs dug out vast quantities of sand and rocks illegally, to be used in the construction boom that followed the creation of Uttarakhand. No doubt vast amounts of money was earned in bribes which explains the rise in property prices and the construction boom in the state. So, will any politician take responsibility for the disaster and resign. No. Because politicians are allowed to commit any crime and continue to enjoy a life of debauch at taxpayer expense. Who says so? The Honorable Supreme court, no less. A person facing murder trial can contest elections, become an MP and even a minister in the Union government, but pendency of a criminal case will not entitle him to a job in the lowest rung of the police force. TOI 5 July. A double Patiala peg all round. Cheers.

Sunday, July 07, 2013

All of us should walk like the Egyptians.

The word " Democracy " comes from 2 Greek words. " Demos " which means " common people " and " Kratos " which means " rule " or " strength ". That is why our constitution starts with the words " we the people" which means that every act of the constitution derives its power and legitimacy from the will of the people. Politicians, however, have very cleverly narrowed the definition down to just winning of elections and nothing more. This definition allows Robert Mugabe to be a dictator, Vladimir Putin to be a semi dictator and the Congress in India to be an oligarchy where a family is given absolute power over the every aspect of governance by a bunch of invertebrate sycophants of such nauseating servility that they are allowed to take the country into an abyss of bankruptcy just to win elections to stay in power. This cozy pact by politicians across the world to define democracy by " free and fair elections " has now been shattered by the Egyptians who have come out in their millions to demand that power be returned to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, which has lost power, are claiming that it was an army coup which gives them the right to resort to armed resistance. What they are not saying is that they had no right to grab power in the first place. Hosni Mubarak was brought down, not by the Brotherhood, but by people resistance which refused to go away despite the killing of protesters. It was a protest without leaders, without organisation and without any political agenda. Just a set of demands for jobs, food, housing and to be treated with respect, without having to live constantly in fear of the secret police. The Muslim Brotherhood seized the opportunity. They said they would not contest parliamentary elections but did. They said that they would not contest presidential elections but did. Muhamed Morsi became the president and set about consolidating the power of the Brotherhood instead of focusing on the dire state of the economy. He issued a declaration granting himself all powers to supersede courts, convened the constitutional assembly, which had been declared illegal by a court, got it to pass an Islamic constitution in a hurry and appointed regional governors from the Brotherhood. Perhaps he was in too much of a hurry. He should have learnt from the Congress. Control the army, the police and all investigating agencies, use them to persecute opponents with false charges, divide the people by buying a " vote bank " with taxpayer money, institutionalise caste by reserving large numbers of jobs for numerous categories and then persecute Hindus to get votes of " minorities ". The Egyptians have shown us the way. We should follow them. We should all walk like the Egyptians. 

Saturday, July 06, 2013

Increasing debt leads to bankruptcy.

The Purchasing Managers Index has dropped from 53.6 in May to 51.7 in June. Anything above 50 is positive so it is still showing some growth but with retail inflation continuing unchecked how long before it turns negative as well. With the crisis in Egypt set to continue for the unforeseeable future Brent crude has already jumped to $106 a barrel so further rises in petrol and diesel prices are inevitable, which will only make inflation worse. That, in turn, will weaken the rupee raising prices of imported goods, such as oil and coal, making inflation even worse. So what is the answer of the Congress to the impending vicious cycle? It has asked public sector banks to lower interest rates which the banks cannot do without lowering deposit rates as well thus hitting savers, many of whom are pensioners dependent on their savings. The Congress has also imposed the Food Security Bill through an illegal ordinance which will add another Rs 2 trillion to the deficit, raising it to above 5% again. This was done to win the general elections in 2014. The only way to find the extra money is by borrowing more from markets which will tighten liquidity and put upward pressure on interest rates. So on the one hand they are ordering banks to lower rates while forcing them to raise rates by borrowing more. But it is not just internal debt that is getting out of hand. Our external debt has jumped 13% from $345 billion in 2011-12 to $390 billion in 2012-13 so that the ratio of our foreign exchange reserves to external debt has fallen from 85% to 75%. ET, 3 July. According to the RBI yesterday our foreign exchange reserves have fallen by another $3.20 billion to $284.65 billion. This is because the RBI is selling dollars to smoothen the fall of the rupee. Overall our external debt has risen 300% from $112.4 billion in 2004, when the Congress seized power, to $390 billion today. Even more scary is the fact that the short term foreign debt is now $97 billion which is 33.1% of Forex reserves, up from 3.9% in 2004 and 17.2% in 2009. This rises to $172 billion if all External Commercial Borrowings, which is money borrowed by companies, are taken into account. This is 60% of our foreign currency reserves and will need to be paid back in the next 12 months. What that will do to our Current Account Deficit defies imagination. The MNREGA scheme, forgiving all loans to framers, increasing civil service salaries by 80%, Backward Regions Grants and now the Food Security Bill, the Congress has been wasting trillions of taxpayer rupees just to win elections with no protest. This is economic terrorism, more dangerous than bombs. Bankruptcy looms.

Friday, July 05, 2013

India is irrelevant internationally.

The US whistle-blower, ex NSA contractor, Edward Snowden asked for asylum in India and was promptly turned down. Our most revered External Affairs Minister said that India is not an " open house " for asylum seekers because the country has a " very careful and restrictive policy " on the issue. Livemint, 2 July. Why? When we allow Bangladeshis to flood into the country in their millions and provide them with ration cards so that they can have subsidised food at Indian taxpayer expense and allow Pakistani actors to earn millions from Bollywood movies why can we not give asylum to Snowden on purely humanitarian grounds when we know how Bradley Manning, another whistle-blower, was tortured in prison by the vindictive Obama administration? This is despite the fact that Snowden's revelations show that India was fifth on the list of countries that the US was spying on. In fact, the Minister was quick to defend the US saying," Some of the information they got out of their scrutiny, they were able to use it to prevent serious terrorist attacks in several countries." HT, 2 July. Really? Pray spell out how many terrorist attacks on India were prevented by the US spying. Give us specific instances, and not placebos, and let us judge for ourselves. Why do we kowtow to the US when we do not receive any aid from them, when they keep selling arms to Pakistan to kill Indian soldiers and when they have given asylum to Rabinder Singh, a CIA mole in the Research and Analysis Wing of India in the 1980s? Singh is said to be living happily in new Jersey. Tiny Iceland is contemplating giving citizenship to Snowden to protect him. The Supreme Court in Iceland has ordered credit card companies to process payments to Wikileaks which were stopped by US pressure following exposure of deliberate killings of innocent people, including 2 Reuters journalists, in Baghdad by a US helicopter crew. " This is not scrutiny and access to actual messages. It is only computer analysis of patterns of calls and emails that are being sent...it is not actually snooping on the content of anyone's messages or conversations," said the Minister. Why is he protecting the US when he should be outraged by this assault on Indian citizens? Because the Congress is doing much worse. The Central Monitoring System is designed to read our emails, listen and record our telephone conversations and see our internet postings without any restrictions or supervision by citizen representatives. When our politicians are persecuting Indian citizens they cannot be humanitarian to foreigners, can they? That is why other countries kick us around.

Thursday, July 04, 2013

A jackal cannot give milk.

Our most revered Finance Minister has asked public sector banks to cut interest rates to " stimulate the economy " by making borrowing easier for companies to invest in new projects thereby stimulating growth and increasing employment. Is it going to work? No. Companies will not invest if there is no demand and reducing interest rates has to be accompanied by lower deposit rates which will force people to buy gold to insure against inflation and the falling rupee thereby increasing the Current Account Deficit even higher. The employment rate has fallen from 42% in 2004-05, when the Congress grabbed power, to 39.2% in 2009-10 to 38.6% in 2011-12. From 2004 to 2010 only 2.7 million new jobs were created as opposed to 60 million new jobs in the previous 5 years when the Congress was not in power. Labor force participation rate dropped from 40% in 2009-10 to 39.5% in 2011-12 suggesting that people were being forced to study longer or drop out of the job market because of lack of opportunities. ET, 21 June. Manpower surveyed 42 countries around the world in which 17, including Spain, Greece and the US, had stronger hiring intentions in the July-September quarter. We have to remember that Spain and Greece are suffering severe austerity programs imposed by the EU and the IMF and yet hope to create more jobs. In 4 countries hiring intentions were unchanged while in 21 countries, including France, China and India, hiring intentions were weaker. China is an illusion because it is still growing at over 7% which is less than its previous growth rate of over 10% and so its hiring intentions will be less than before. India and France are similar in imposing tax and spend socialism which has failed repeatedly, most spectacularly in the disintegration of the Soviet Union. But we are being told by eminent economists, such as Paul Krugman, that governments should increase spending  in a time of falling growth, even by borrowing more, because increasing growth leads to increased tax collections thereby reducing debt. So why is our growth tanking while fiscal deficit and CAD are soaring. Because the Congress has been wasting precious taxpayer money on social schemes to buy votes instead of on infrastructure which would have created more jobs. An affidavit filed in the Supreme Court by the government on 1 July says that 47,795 kms of national highways were built in 32 years between 1980 and 2012 of which nearly 50% or 23,814 kms were built in 5 years between 1997 and 2002 when the Congress was not in power. In 10 years the Congress has added just 16,000 kms. TOI, 3 July. This Finance Minister is responsible for the loot and bribe policy. How can he be the remedy? Can a jackal give milk?

Wednesday, July 03, 2013

The weak and dishonorable bully.

Documents from the National Security Agency leaked by Edward Snowden show how the US has been snooping on telephone calls and internet traffic of other countries. Not just on enemies but on friends as well. Documents obtained by the German Weekly, Der Spiegel show that US intelligence services used bugs, phone taps and cyber monitoring to obtain information from European Union embassies and offices in Washington, New York and Brussels. TOI, 1 July. " Documents from September 2010 classified as " top secret " by the National Security Agency, which were leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, revealed how the agency planted bugs at the EU offices in Washington and New York and gained access to their internal computer networks," said Der Spiegel. " This enabled the NSA not only to snoop into the conversations at the EU missions, but also to monitor the emails and internal documents on their computers." This has shocked and angered EU lawmakers who are calling for punitive actions. Not just foreigners, the Obama administration has been snooping on US journalists as well. The Justice Department was monitoring 20 phone lines used by 100 journalists at The Associated Press over a 2 month period this year. The FBI was monitoring phone calls of James Rosen of Fox News for a 2009 scoop in which he predicted that North Korea will conduct further nuclear tests in response to increased sanctions. At the same time the Obama administration has gone after whistle-blowers with a vengeance. Edward Snowden is stuck in Moscow airport because of US pressure on other countries not to grant him asylum. His citizenship has been cancelled and his passport withdrawn. Citizenship is the birthright of every human being and cancelling it amounts to wiping out a man's identity which makes it akin to murder. That is of no bother to Obama who has been killing hundreds of innocent people by using drones over Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia and wherever the hell it pleases him. He sanctioned the killing of US citizen Anwar al-Awlaki by a drone attack in Yemen and followed it up with the killing of his son, 16 year old Abulrahman who was born in Denver in the US. So why is a man who taught constitutional law at Harvard engaged in murders and other immoral actions. Because he is a weak man. He does not have the guts to stand up to the Republicans who have humiliated him from the time he was elected but he bends over and talks about bipartisanship. And like all weak men he is paranoid vindictive and sly. Is it any wonder that George Bush is becoming more popular everyday?

Tuesday, July 02, 2013

It is all linked.

The experts tell us that the reason the rupee is falling, although it has gained a few paise recently, is that the Current Account Deficit is too high. CAD is the gap between savings and investment. Livemint, 18 June. It is high because savings have been falling. Gross domestic savings have fallen from 36.8% of GDP in 2007-08 to 30.8% of GDP in 2011-2012, which is a fall of 6%. Financial savings of households is down from 11.6% to 8% of GDP. While savings in the usual financial instruments has fallen sharply India imported $53.4 billion worth of gold in 2011 and $54 billion worth in 2012. This contributed to a trade deficit of $162.2 billion in 2011 and $194.5 billion in 2012 while CAD was $60.8 billion in 2011 and $93.4 billion in 2012. This was the time when gold was zooming to ever higher values reaching $1900 per troy ounce. It is now down to around $1200 per troy ounce. So why were Indians buying gold when it was so expensive while their savings were declining. The reason is that India has the worst Real Policy Rate in BRICS countries as well as comparable Asian countries. The Real Policy Rate is the difference between the rate of Consumer Price Inflation and the interest rate set by the central bank, which is called the Repo rate in India. Our CPI is 9.3% while our interest rate is 7.25% giving a RPR of -2.05%. Brazil has a high CPI at 6.5% but its interest rate is 8% giving it a RPR of +1.5%, meaning that Brazilians get real returns when they save their money in banks. Russia has a CPI of 7.4% and interest rate of 8.25% so the RPR is +0.85%. Only South Africa and Turkey have negative RPR. South Africa has a CPI of 5.9% with an interest rate of 5% giving it a RPR of -0.9% while Turkey has a CPI of 6.5% with interest rate at 4.5% giving it a RPR of -2%. The CPI in Thailand is 2.3%, in Malaysia it is 1.7% and in Philippines it is 2.6%. Is it any wonder that these countries are doing so much better than us? When every country in the world gets anxious about inflation why is our government so unconcerned? Because inflation does not affect the wealthy, the poor, politicians and civil servants. The wealthy because they do not care for a few million here or there and the poor because there are a plethora of social schemes to buy their votes. Politicians do not pay any bills, leaving such mundane things to the taxpayer and civil servants have index linked dearness allowance and pensions. Anyway salaries are just pocket money for children. Their real earnings are from bribes and outright theft. The only people who suffer are the middle class, whom the politicians hate because they ask questions. It is all self interest.

Monday, July 01, 2013

Why nothing will work?

The figures remain dire but the stock market is surging again and the rupee has jumped by more than 80 paise against the dollar. Meanwhile the Consumer Price Index is still at 9.3% and set to rise because of increase in the price of fuel. Growth is predicted to be around 5% but that is more of a hope than certainty. The much hyped foreign investment in retail has been zero. We had predicted as much and were unable to understand the predictions of hundreds of billions of dollars flooding into India as foreign retailers fought with each other to woo the growing middle class flush with cash. It was obvious why that would not happen. Land prices in cities are at ridiculous levels so the cost of setting up a hypermarket, preferred by the likes of Walmart and Tesco, would be prohibitive. Secondly, with some states stoutly against the idea connectivity would be impossible. You cannot set up standalone stores separated by hundreds of miles of broken roads. Thirdly, setting up infrastructure such as cold stores, which would help in preventing millions of tons of foods rotting out in the open as now, is impossible without guaranteed supply of affordable electricity. But most importantly it was because the Congress has killed the economy with its selfish socialist policies just to win the elections in 2009. Almost the entire economic growth between 2004 and 2009 was due to soaring prices of properties setting off a construction boom which sucked in labor from farming related activities. This generated vast amounts of unaccountable black money setting of inflation which was allowed to go unchecked to keep up the mirage of growth. Seems that the Congress is still stuck somewhere in the 1950s because it thinks that buying cars and air conditioners or travelling by air, instead of by fly ridden third class trains, is the sign of extreme luxury. That is the reason why they levied extortionate taxes on every kind of goods and service raising inflation, reducing consumer demand, reduced savings and falling growth. This is totally astonishing because the scoundrels are forever scooting off to western countries at taxpayer expense on fictitious official business. They never take holidays in Cuba or North Korea, perhaps the only remaining socialist workers paradise left in the world. When they visit the US, Europe, Japan or China do they not see the quality of roads, unlimited electricity, the obsessive focus on controlling inflation and the constant effort at improving the quality of the lives of their citizens? Perhaps, for them winning elections is everything because that guarantees their wealth while the country plummets. In a globalised world that will not work.