Change, or more of the same?

The coronavirus is not changing everything, wrote Ruchir Sharma. "The coronavirus hit at a time when the world was already turning inwards, largely in reaction to the global financial crisis of 2008." "Democracy was in retreat, and autocrats were on the march, before the virus appeared." "The universalist spirit of globalization was fading before the pandemic, and is harder to find now." So-called populists and autocrats did not grab power by armed coup but were elected by disillusioned masses who suffered from globalization. "Multinational corporations and investors have increasingly shaped the agenda of trade negotiations, resulting in global regimes that disproportionately benefit capital at the expense of labor," wrote Prof Dani Rodrik. "Stringent patent rules and international investor tribunals are prime examples. So is the capture of agencies by the industries they are supposed to regulate." Increasing debt, deflation, depreciation of currencies, de-globalization, digital work replacing humans, and geopolitical tensions will lead to a "Greater Depression" later on in this decade, even if there is a recovery from the Greater Recession induced by the coronavirus, wrote Prof Nouriel Roubini. "In a matter of mere months, the coronavirus has wiped out global gains that took two decades to achieve, leaving an estimated 2 billion people at risk of abject poverty." "By the end of the year, 8% of the world's population, a half-billion people, may be pushed into destitution largely because of the pandemic, the United Nations estimates." 210 million Indians were lifted out of poverty from 2006 to 2016. "As India receded into homes in the last week of March, a section of Bharat hit the streets defying the order to stay indoors," wrote Rohit Saran. Millions of Indians float just above the poverty line. "An illness, a job loss, death of an earning member ... is all it takes for a family in this zone to plunge into poverty." McKinsey & Co suggested an Empowerment Line instead of the Poverty Line for India based on 8 parameters -- food, energy, housing, drinking water, sanitation, healthcare, education and social security. Developing countries will suffer more because of falling commodity prices, falling inward remittances, falling investment and falling currencies, making foreign debt more expensive. "A direct hit at the global economy has been the disruption of the global value chains (GVCs) by the pandemic," wrote Profs Amit Kapoor & Richard Dasher. Businesses are looking to diversify away from China. "India is developing a land pool nearly double the size of Luxembourg to lure businesses moving out of China," wrote Shruti Srivastava. Building of a $22 billion ITER fusion reactor stalled when stainless shims, manufactured by Larsen and Toubro Ltd in India, fell short. To save time "ITER got Indian government permission to hire trucks for a 500 kilometer (311 mile) journey to transport 7 tons of shims to a chartered airplane bound for France". The reason for poverty is that 90% of our workers are informal. We should encourage large companies which will create formal employment, wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. That will mean reforms. Why would our rulers want that?