The US has earned our smile.

"External affairs minister S Jaishankar has hit out at the Western media over the 'negative' coverage of Indian elections, saying that countries that 'have to go to court for deciding election results' are giving 'gyan' on conducting polls." "Jaishankar was responding to a question on allegations made against India by Canada and the US of poll interference, and conducting operations on foreign soil." HT. He may have been referring to the 2000 presidential election between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W Bush, "decided on December 12, 2000, in which the Supreme Court of the United States reversed an order by the Florida Supreme Court for a selective manual recount of that state's presidential election ballots." Britannica. Mr Jaishankar is unaware that we, the citizens of India, are extremely concerned about the fairness of our elections. The Election Commission of India (ECI) in charge of conducting the election "has been criticised for its alleged partisanship and bias in favor of the ruling party and for not taking action on complaints against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior BJP leaders. At the same time, it is issuing warnings to the leader of the largest opposition party." DH. "The ECI clearly turns a blind eye to the egregious violations of the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as is evident from the analysis of data on its website." While Congress leaders have received 6 notices the BJP has received only 3. The Wire. The ECI has been delaying information about the turn-out number of voters, is publishing only percentages and has not published absolute numbers of voters so far. In the past, the ECI published absolute numbers within 2 days. "It has been noted that there is a difference of 5-6% between the initial figures and the final figures, and that is unusual." EC. Not just unusual, extremely suspicious. Then there are questions about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVM). "There is considerable skepticism about whether people's choices are being recorded fairly, and if they're being counted right," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India is not seen as measuring up to the high standards of liberal Western democracies." "The West's rhetoric of 'democratic backsliding' in India is hypocritical." News18. No high standards necessary. "Ladakhi innovator and activist, who has been at the forefront of the protests...has questioned whether there is a link between all those trolling him and the Union home ministry." The Wire. That's going to the level of the sewer. However, even if we are greater than the West it is better not to rile the US. Not because it is rich and powerful, which it is, but because our exports to the US were $77.5 billion in 2023-24 and imports were $40.8 billion, giving us a surplus of $36.7 billion, while our imports from China were $101.7 billion and exports were just $16.67 billion which means we paid China, our worst enemy, a net $85.03. ET. Isn't it better to smile at the US rather than calling it names? They've paid $36.7 billion to earn it.

No need for hindsight.

"The second disappointment is the high and stubborn inflation during 2010 and 2012 during my tenure. I realized that I should have raised interest rates faster and steeper than I had actually done." "It was only with the benefit of hindsight that we learned that growth was actually faster than we knew in real time," said former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Duvvuri Subbarao. Subbarao was in office as Governor of the RBI from 5 September 2008 to 4 September 2013. wikipedia. His regret about inaction from 2010 to 2012 is actually a cop out. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was rising from 2007. Average CPI inflation rate was 6.39% in 2007, 8.32% in 2008, 10.83% in 2009, 12.11% in 2010, 8.87% in 2011 and 9.30% in 2012. inflation.eu. He should have started taking action as soon as he was appointed in 2008 and definitely in 2009. Instead, he actually reduced interest rate by 50 basis points (bps) on 3 November 2008, by a huge 100 bps on 8 December 2008, by another 100 bps on 5 January 2009, by 50 bps on 5 March 2009 and 25 bps on 21 April 2009. Forbes. He was stoking the already red hot inflation. He only woke up a full one year later on 19 March 2010 when he started increasing rates by a miserly 25 bps at a time. "The CPI inflation for the month of April (2024) eased to 4.83%." "The CPI inflation for the month of March 2024 stood at 4.85%." TOI. The CPI calculation is hopelessly out of date because, according to the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the CPI is calculated with 2012 as the base year (2012=100). MoSPI. Indians have changed their spending habits since then. "Indians are spending less on food, particularly staples like rice and wheat, and more on discretionary items such as processed food, as well as durables like televisions and fridges, government consumption data showed." Reuters. "Food and fuel pushed wholesale inflation (WPI) to a 13-month high of 1.26% in April compared with 0.53% in the previous month." ET. The WPI is also outdated. "Even today, vanaspati (hydrogenated vegetable oil) has the highest weightage in the basket of cooking oils, whose prices are monitored by the government to calculate the WPI. However, in the past one and a half decades, the consumption of vanaspati has declined - from around 6% of total cooking oil consumption in 2010-11 to about 3% in 2022-23." ET. In April, "The RBI...kept its key lending rate unchanged at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive time." NDTV. That means for a full 12 months from April 2023. ET. The RBI will have no need for hindsight because "India's economy likely expanded at 8% through fiscal year 2024 (FY24), and growth in the current year is projected at 7%, V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor to the government said." Mint. However, if you don't know consumption, you won't know the gross domestic product (GDP) either. "Asian Paints MD and CEO Amit Syngle has expressed cynicism about GDP numbers and admitted to investors the figures do not correlate to core sectors including steel and cement." Mint. The present RBI is doing nothing despite wrong data. Mr Subbarao did the opposite with glaring data. Don't blame hindsight.

   

Between Hamas and election.

"President Joe Biden said for the first time...he would halt some shipments of American weapons to Israel - which he acknowledged have been used to kill civilians in Gaza - if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu orders a major invasion of the city of Rafah." CNN. This was an invitation to Netanyahu. "If we have to stand alone we will stand alone. If we need to, we will fight with our fingernails," he said. TOI. That would look bad, so "Biden is facing backlash from lawmakers in both parties over his ultimatum that a major Israeli offensive in the city of Rafah would result in a shut-off of some US weapons." CNN. The US said "that Israel's use of US-provided weapons in Gaza likely violated international humanitarian law but that wartime conditions prevented US officials from determining that for certain." ABC. The Biden administration has determined, however, that although Israel may have violated international humanitarian law "it hasn't violated terms of US weapons agreements". CNBC. That's alright then. After Biden "gave his ultimatum of withholding offensive weapons to the Jewish state...rocket attacks rained down on Israel," as "Hamas launched rockets from Rafah at the Israeli city of Beersheva on Friday (10 May) for the first time since December, as Iranian proxy Hezbollah sent a barrage of rockets into the northern Israel city of Kiryat Shmona, causing a massive fire." Fox. Hamas and Hezbollah have no restrictions or qualms about killing civilians, children or babies, as proved in photographs shown to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO defence ministers by Israel. Reuters. After all, their control, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, wants to wipe out Israel. jpost.com. "Biden has paused a shipment of some 3,500 bombs, which includes heavy 2,000 pound versions along with the lighter 500-pound munitions. Both have been used to devastating effect in Gaza, swaths of which have been used to rubble." The Hill. These bombs belong to the Pentagon's Mark 80 series of bombs. "In addition to the 2,000-pound Mk-84, they also come in 250-pound, 500-pound and 1,000-pound versions - the MK-81, MK-82 and MK-83." The US has also developed a 21,000-pound bomb called a Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB, which was used once in Afghanistan in 2017, and a 30,000-pound bombs called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. NYT. MOAB is jocularly interpreted as 'Mother Of All Bombs'. wikipedia. Students at universities in the US are protesting furiously against Israel (BBC) in their love for Hamas and they are probably progressives. Biden wants their votes in November (wikipedia). If the US turns its back on Israel it will have to find support from others, maybe even Moscow or Beijing, which "Biden ought to have learned when he tried to turn Saudi Arabia into a global pariah, only to learn, to his own humiliation, the kingdom had other strategic options." ET. Biden has been a Senator since the age of 29 years.The White House. He has spent his whole life winning elections. But, does he want to be remembered as a Hamas protector? His choice.  

A must win situation.

"The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is cruising to a third consecutive term despite not doling out populist measures in the interim budget because the country has seen true progress and development and is voting on the basis of the difference in their lives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said.., accusing the opposition of introducing divisive agenda into the poll campaign." HT. NDA is an alliance of 38 parties, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Jagran Josh. BJP's manifesto is called "Modi ki Guarantee" (Modi's Guarantee) and is full of giveaways. HT. "Mr Modi says his government has spent more than 34 trillion rupees ($400 billion) in the past decade, delivering direct cash benefits to low-income households reaching over 900 million people. A yearly handout of Rs 6,000 to more than 110 million farmers constitutes one of the world's largest cash transfer programs." BBC. At a campaign rally in April Mr Modi claimed that the Congress Party will take away the Mangal Sutra (sacred thread that married Hindu women wear round their necks) (Sampati) and give all the gold to Muslims. "He described Muslims as 'illegal immigrants' who produce many children." ET. For Mr Modi to claim that he does not resort to populism and that the Opposition is "introducing divisive agenda" is not his usual 'jumla' (bluff) (DH). This is 'pants on fire' (VOA) stuff. Then, "Union home minister Amit Shah said...India would take back Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) if the BJP-led NDA returns to govt at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi." TOI. But, PoK is almost 100% Muslim. As part of India they will produce more children. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had the best of relations with Western leaders in his twin terms so far. Not so with the Western media, who have an assortment of descriptors for him ranging from strongman to autocrat," wrote Prabhu Chawla. Mr Chawla is unaware that there are millions of Indians with worse opinion of this government but are terrified to say so. This government cannot afford to lose. Not just the BJP but also the 25 prominent opposition politicians facing criminal charges who have joined  the BJP, 23 of whom have seen the charges dropped, will do anything to ensure Mr Modi wins. Mint. "The ruling party is likely worried that if it were to leave the government, PM Cares funding details will also be revealed." The Wire. "A Paris-based investigative website Mediapart has reported that the Narendra Modi-led government is refusing to cooperate with French judges in their ongoing investigation into the alleged corruption in the sale of 36 Dassault-built Rafale fighter jets to India in 2016 for 7.8 billion euros. TNIE. There was the Pegasus surveillance software. And "Investigative journalists have found that there is a gap of about Rs 60,000 crore (Rs 600 billion) between what the BJP spent in the last ten years and what it officially said it received as donations." Crimes have mounted up in 10 years. Will the BJP win? They have to. Or else.

The real elephant.

"US consumer sentiment sagged to a six-month low in May as households worried about the higher cost of living and unemployment," and "The mood was downbeat among Democrats, independents and Republicans." "The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.5% in May from 3.2% in April," and "Its five-year inflation outlook increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in the prior month." Inflation expectations have been in the 2.9%-3.1% range in 30 of the last 34 months but higher than the pre-pandemic range of 2.2-2.6%. Reuters. "Debates over whether US interest rates are high enough deepened among Federal Reserve officials this week, and may be stoked further after a key survey showed a jump in consumers' inflation expectations." Reuters. "The US Inflation Rate is at 3.48% (in March), compared to 3.15% last month and 4.98% last year." ycharts. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate in India decreased to 4.85% in March from 5.09% in February. pib.gov.in. "Households' inflation expectations for both three months and one year ahead moderated by 20 basis points (bps) each to 9.0% and 9.8% respectively, their perception on current inflation, however, remained unchanged at 8.1%." RBI. Perhaps, households know more than the RBI because the CPI is calculated on the prices of a basket of goods and services based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey of 2011-12 and is completely outdated. FE. The US Fed is very serious about inflation but, "The elephant in the room was CPI inflation. The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest," joked RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. After the pandemic struck, presidents Trump and Biden unleashed around $10 trillion in new spending, $8 trillion of that after the brief, lockdown-induced recession of early 2020 was over," wrote Ruchir Sharma. In India, the government announced a five-part package claiming to amount to Rs 20.97 trillion, or 10% of GDP, but "Over a dozen banks, brokerages and rating agencies have said the package falls short of 10% of GDP and works out around 1%." TOI. Another elephant in the jungle, perhaps. "One result is that India's public debt is up by about 8 points as a share of GDP - half the increase in US." "US cannot sustain such aggressive stimulus indefinitely," and "it is hard to know when the sugar rush from the past stimulus will wear off. But once it does, the landing may come faster than any conventional model suggests." Sharma. "The US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. BI. In India, rural consumption grew by "only 0.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of FY24." "This is not just a blip of higher food inflation in February 2024 that resulted in 3.3% decline in real wages but has been observed for 25 out of 27 months to February, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy." FE. Stagnation with inflation, that is stagflation. The RBI and the government may deny it but households know better. That's the real elephant.

The selected Election Commission.

"The Election Commission of India...criticised Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge for allegedly 'obstructing' the ongoing Lok Sabha election." How? Because the Opposition, including the Congress wrote to the Poll Panel "over the alleged 'delay' in releasing voter turnout numbers after the first two phases." ET. In December 2023, the government passed a bill changing the composition of the committee to select the three Election Commissioners. According to the new law, "the panel will consist of three members - the prime minister, the Union cabinet minister and the leader of the opposition". Mint. This was contrary to, "In March 2023, a five-judge Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court ruled that the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) and Election Commissioners (ECs) shall be appointed on the advice of a committee comprising the Prime Minister, leader of opposition in Lok Sabha and the Chief Justice of India." TOI. Skulduggery leads to suspicion. "The final turnout data was published.., 11 days after the first phase polling on April 19 and four days after the second phase polling on April 26. The delay is very unusual as the data has traditionally been published within one or two days even in the years when computers were not in use." "Even when the data has been published, it is only the percentages of turnout in various constituencies that has been given and not the absolute number of votes. The EC used to publish absolute numbers in the past." DH. Suspicion is highly justified. "The third phase of the 2024 general election in Uttar Pradesh was married by allegations of police violence in the Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency, with reports of Muslims being subject to lathi (bamboo sticks) charges and their identity cards being confiscated." The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mr Modi's party, is expected to lose here. The Caravan. The election is being held in seven phases, the first was on 19 April and the last will be on 1 June. ET. On 9 May, right in the middle of elections, a paper, " 'Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)' prepared by a team led by EAC-PM (Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister) member Shamika Ravi said that 'the share of the majority Hindu population decreased by 7.82% between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68% to 78.06%). The share of Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84% and increased to 14.09% in 2015 - a 43.15% increase in their share." DH. Responding to the EAC-PM report, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen leader Asaduddin Owaisi called it "a report from Whatsapp University". ET. Suddenly, Mr Modi seems unsure of his prediction of "abki baar, 400 paar" (this time, over 400 seats) (The Statesman). "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's messaging has shifted from confident to shrill," as "in an April 21 where speech he suggested that Rahul Gandhi's Congress Party, if elected, would 'calculate the gold with mothers and sisters', and redistribute it 'among those who have more children...among infiltrators,' tropes that his supporters routinely use to refer to Muslims," wrote Andy Mukherjee. This is blatant lies and open hate speech. But the Election Commission is silent. They have been selected.     

Like US, UK and Canada.

"The government's chief economic adviser, V Anantha Nageswaran, expects India's economy to expand by more than 7% in the current fiscal year. The CEA also projected that the economy can sustain more than 6.5%-7% growth for a decade, supported by investment in physical and digital infrastructure." Mint. "Overall hiring activity has seen a 9% uptick in April - both on a month-on-month and on-year basis - indicating a recovery in employment opportunities, the latest foundit Insights Tracker on hiring trends has revealed." ET. "The Indian government's accounts may see a slightly reduced fiscal deficit," as "During the interim budget, the government lowered its fiscal deficit target to 5.8% in its revised estimate for FY24 and announced a target of 5.1% for FY25. In absolute terms, this comes to Rs 17.34 trillion. As of February, the fiscal deficit reached Rs 15 trillion of the total target." NDTV. "For the second year in a row, individual taxpayers have contributed more to the government's direct tax coffers than businesses, according to data from the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT)." In 2023-24, individuals contributed 53.31% and corporate taxes contributed 46.52% of direct taxes. This is apparently similar to the US, UK and Canada. pressreader. However, in 2022, the per capita Gross National Income (GNI) was $53,310 for Canada, $76,770 for the US and $49,240 for the UK. macrotrends. On the other hand, "India's per capita net national income (at current prices) for 2022-23 stands at INR 172,000, according to estimates from the National Statistical Office (NSO)." At constant prices, accounting for inflation, the net national income was Rs 98,118 in 2022-23. India Briefing. At Rs 83 to the dollar (xe.com), that comes to a meager $1182.14. Indians don't earn much. "The Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.10 lakh crore (Rs 2.10 trillion)." pib.gov.in. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman....said that "implementation of GST has helped poor as it lowered taxes on large items and exempted many essential goods and services from tax, compared to the pre-GST era." ET. If the GST collection has zoomed to Rs 2.10 trillion despite exemptions the poor must be splurging on large items. "Persisting distress conditions in the countryside are reflected in a sustained contraction of rural wages adjusted for inflation." and "has been observed for 25 out of the 27 months to February, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy." FE. The rural population constituted 64% of the total population of India in 2022. World Bank. "The South Asian country is poised to become a 21st century economic powerhouse," and "As a result, these three men - Modi, Ambani and Adani - are playing a fundamental role in shaping the economic superpower India will become in the coming decades." CNN. The rest of us can eat cakes (wikipedia). So lucky!

Congress manifesto vs Modi ki Guarantee.

The Congress Party has published its manifesto, titled Nyay (Justice) Patra (letter), for the ongoing general election. manifesto.inc. At 48 pages, it promises something for everyone of the 1,440 million citizens of India (worldometer). On page 7, it "guarantees that it will pass an amendment to raise the 50% cap on reservations for SC (Scheduled Caste), ST (Scheduled Tribe) and OBC (Other Backward Classes)." On page 17, "We will reserve one-half (50%) of central government jobs for women starting 2025." More than 50% reservation for lower castes plus 50% for women takes it to well over 100%. "Reservation came into force on 26 January 1950 in Independent India. The protection or reservation given by Dr Bhim Rao Ambedkar to the backward castes was appropriate." Ambedkar "had said that this reservation should be only for 10 years. There should be a review every 10 years," and "if reservation leads to development of any class, then the next generation should not be given the benefit of this system." wrote Dr Shanker Suwan Singh. Meant to help the disadvantaged sections of society, reservation has created divisions between various groups, given enormous opportunities for exploitation to politicians and civil servants and weakened the civil society (Britannica). "Forty-seven villages in eastern Rajasthan's Karauli district have been without water from Panchna dam for 15 years," because the supply "was cut by the district administration in 2006 when the Gurjars began an agitation for reservations under the Scheduled Tribes (ST) category in the town of Hindaun in Karauli district and the Meenas, who are already in that category, opposed them." The Wire. In February 2024, "The Manipur High Court...modified its 2023 order in which it recommended the ST status for the Meiteis community. The ruling led to widespread protests in Manipur and sparked ethnic clashes, which killed more than 200 people since May 3 last year." Mint. As a result of the ruling, in May 2023, "The protests by tribals against the Meitei community have left 54 dead, including an Indian Revenue Services officer who was dragged out of his house and killed by a mob and a police commando who was shot dead in his village." ET. The Patra promises to give Rs 100,000 per year to every poor family, guaranteed minimum support prices (MSP) to farmers, fill 3 million vacancies in government jobs, abolish Agnipath scheme and restore normal length of service in armed forces, will limit Cess to 5%, create a single moderate GST rate and spend on infrastructure. However, there is no word on how they will finance all this spending while lowering GST rate and maintaining stable personal income tax. The 2024 Budget estimated fiscal deficit at 5.8% in 2023-24 and 5.1% in 2024-25. pib.gov.in. In April 2024, Moody's maintained India's credit rating at Baa3, which is the lowest investment grade. ET. Another rating agency, "Fitch Ratings said that the slightly faster pace of fiscal deficit reduction does not significantly change India's sovereign credit rating profile." DH. Will people analyse the Congress manifesto? The 813.5 million people who receive free food grains (pib.gov.in), plus all those receiving subsidies will just search for what is in it for them and weigh it against the BJP manifesto which promises Modi ki Guarantee (Y20). They won't care that what they receive in subsidies they will pay through inflation. India will grow. Not because of governance. But, in spite of it.    

We like to differ.

"PM Modi has been fielded as the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) candidate from the Varanasi constituency for the Lok Sabha Elections in 2024. He will contest against Comedian Shyam Rangeela, the Congress' Ajai Rai and Bahujan Samajwadi Party's (BSP) Athar Ali Lari." Mint. The BSP seeks to represent lower caste Hindus and minorities which, it claims, constitute the majority of the Indian population. wikipedia. Though Mr Modi's victory is certain, it will be made easier by the division of opposition votes between the Congress and BSP. Situated on the banks of the River Ganga, 'Kashi' is the ancient name for Varanasi, and Hindus believe (wikipedia) that anyone dying there will achieve 'moksha' or freedom from rebirth (wikipedia). "Today, after 10 years, I can say that Maa (Mother) Ganga has adopted me. In the last 10 years, I have been so connected with Kashi that whenever I speak, I say that it's my Kashi. It's like a relationship between a mother and a son," said Mr Modi. In Mahabharata, Bhishma was the only surviving son of King Shantanu and Goddess Ganga and was hence known as 'Gangaputra' (son of Ganga). wikipedia. Bhishma was a lifelong celibate. Mr Modi has been married to Jashodaben, but his brother Sombhai Modi said that Mr Modi's marriage was arranged and was never consummated. wikipedia. Mr Modi's followers are known as 'Bhakts' which means 'believers' (DH) because they believe in anything he says. They will readily accept Mr Modi as Gangaputra II. One major difference is that Bhishma was blessed with the power of choosing the time of his own death, known as 'Ichcha Mrityu' (wikipedia) and, so far as we know, Mr Modi has not been blessed with such power. In April, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said big and powerful people in India and abroad have joined hands to remove him from power." ET. "If social media is any indication, venerable publications such as The Economist, The New York Times, Financial Times (FT) et al are mercilessly pilloried today for promoting their own political agenda and failure to comprehend an assertive, self-confident India," wrote Swapan Dasgupta. Perhaps Mr Dasgupta is unaware that, "The idea of a squadron of government officials storming a newsroom to shut down news-gathering and seize laptops and phones of journalists would send shivers up the spine of anyone who values a free and open democracy. However, the current Indian government routinely uses national interest as a smokescreen to raid news houses critical of it," wrote Simran Agarwal. "In an open letter, a group of India-based foreign correspondents have strongly protested the treatment meted out Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reporter Avani Dias, who left India...saying the government had made it too difficult for her to work here any longer." The Wire. If India is so "assertive, self-confident" why so scared of criticism? Why was Disha Ravi forcibly arrested by Delhi Police from her home in Bengaluru for a simple toolkit relating to farmers' protest in 2021? wikipedia. Bhakts may worship Mr Modi as Gangaputra II, but some of us would like to differ. If allowed.  

The Fed is stuck.

"The world's economic outlook is perking up as growth proves more resilient and inflation is set to cool faster than previously expected in many countries, the OECD said." "The OECD raised the 2024 global growth forecast to 3.1% - from 2.9% in February - with notable improvements in its expectations for the US, China and India." "The world economy will likely avoid entering a stagflationary rut." ET. "The US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks." "The key development was the April jobs report.., which showed 175,000 positions were added last month, coming in well below the consensus forecast of 238,000. Further, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined to 0.2%." BI. 'Stagflation' is a combination of stagnating economic growth, meaning businesses aren't producing at full capacity, and employment is falling, along with inflation or rising prices. Britannica. "US worker productivity growth slowed sharply in the first quarter, resulting in a surge in labor costs," as "Non-farm output, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 3.5% pace in the October-December period, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said." Reuters. "US private payrolls increased more than expected in April," "Private payrolls increased by 192,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 208,000 in March, the ADP employment report showed." BS. "In March, the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers...rose 3.5% over the last 12 months not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy...up 3.8% over the year." bls.gov. These are well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% CPI inflation. "The US central bank's 2% target for inflation is key to achieving price stability and essential for ensuring economic prosperity, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said." Reuters. "Personal income increased $122 billion (0.5% at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI) - personal income less personal current taxes - increased $104.0 billion (0.5%)." Consumer spending increased by $160.9 billion. bea.gov. In its latest meeting "The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady...and signaled it is still leaning towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs." But the benchmark policy rate will stay at 5.25%-5.50% until the Fed is sure that inflation has been contained. "In 2023, savers made $315.4 billion in interest in deposit accounts, four times the $78.7 billion they earned in 2022," because "after so many years of paltry interest rates, the Fed's rate-hike campaign that began in 2022 made it possible for savers to earn inflation-beating yields on the US domestic deposits, including bank and credit union savings accounts, certificates of deposit and money market accounts." CNN. Higher employment levels, higher disposable personal income and higher returns from savings are helping American consumers to spend more. That is probably supporting higher prices. Is the Fed complicating its task by rewarding savers with a generous 1.5%-2% real interest rate? No wonder it seems frozen.  

Inequity leads to inequality.

India human Development Surveys (IHDS) of 2005 and 2012 show that "the Gini coefficient of income inequality in 2012 was 0.54 having worsened from its 2005 level. This places India among major countries with the worst inequality," wrote Prof Himanshu. The Gini coefficient measures income inequality, with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 representing perfect inequality with all the income going to one person. Investopedia. In 2022-23, 22.6% of all income and 40.1% of all wealth went to the top 1% of the population. "Taxation as a means to redistribute wealth is probably as old as taxation itself." "Unlike indirect taxes, taxes on income or capital gains are typically progressive, with the rich expected to pay a higher share than the less well-off." "The bogus cry of inequality of wealth in India raises a fundamental question: is equality of wealth even desirable?" "Of the 1,319 individuals with wealth over Rs 1,000cr (Rs 10 billion) on the Hurun India Rich List of 2023, 64% were self-made." "The modern world is a better place because it's striven to provide equality of opportunity." "Simplifying laws, punishing the corrupt and enforcing equality before law are measures that can help," wrote Meeta and Rajivlochan." That is the nub of the problem. "In 1996, a petition was filed before the Supreme Court by a respected retired senior police officer Prakash Singh that raised various instances of abuse of power by the police, and alleged that police personnel perform their duties in a politically biased manner." In 2006, the Court directed the Centre and state governments to institute police reforms but till now nothing has been done. TOI. "The police is the repressive arm of the State. That's how it was conceived of when the British ruled over us; that's how it continues to behave after independence," wrote Jyoti Punwani. "As many as 225 sitting Lok Sabha MPs have criminal cases against them, according to an analysis by the Association of Democratic Reforms (ADR). This constitutes 44% of total sitting MPs in the outgoing Lok Sabha." Mint. "Now why do Indians vote for criminal candidates?" Political scientist Milan Vaishnav believes that political parties choose criminals because they can finance their election campaign through illicit wealth and people vote for criminals because they can force civil servants to provide services which they are supposed to. BBC. "The 'octopus class', according to Mukherjea and Rajhansa, comprises nearly 200,000 families across India, in small towns as well as big cities, or nearly one million people, who control nearly 80% of India's wealth." ET. Members of these families enter political parties and use their wealth to get elected, which gives them control of the police to do as they wish. The BJP has used its control of investigating agencies to augment its numbers. 23 out of 25 politicians accused of serious crimes have seen charges dropped after joining the BJP. Mint. Most of the self-made rich people in India have made their wealth through crime. Criminals will never allow equal justice. No justice means no opportunity. Inequality is permanent. 

They know, we don't.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) added 5 tons of gold to its reserves in March." "In India RBI's gold holdings rose to a record high of 822.1 tons by the start of April representing an 18.5 tons net acquisition since the beginning of the year." "Gold has long been considered a safe haven asset, particularly during times of market volatility and inflationary pressures." "Five decades ago..., US President Richard Nixon informed the world that the US would no longer honor its commitment to exchange US dollars for gold on demand." "Five years after Nixon's decision, IMF member states agreed to end gold's monetary role and, in effect, to move to a market based system of floating exchange rates." The Conversation. As of 11 April, the US had the largest gold reserves in the world with 8,133.46 tonnes of gold, China was sixth with 2,235.39 tonnes and India was ninth with 803.58 tonnes. Forbes. Since 11 April the RBI has added almost 19 tonnes. "The interest rate differential between domestic and US has shrunk to its lowest levels in at least 17 years, an occurrence that textbook theory says should drive foreign capital out of India." "If anything, an improvement in India's domestic and external fundamentals, along with events like the inclusion of domestic debt in global bond indices, has prompted foreign investors to pour funds here." ET.  "Fidelity International notes that the Indian central bank's control over the rupee enhances its attractiveness for carry trades." "Despite reaching a record low in April, the Indian rupee has maintained its position as the best performing Asian currency this year, experiencing a marginal 0.2% decline against the dollar." IBEF. Carry trade is a strategy in which you borrow in a currency with a low interest rate and invest in one with a higher rate. Investopedia. It is highly risky in that a sharp fall in the exchange value of the higher-rate currency will result in large losses. However, with the RBI supporting the rupee, foreign investors feel reassured. With so much foreign exchange coming through foreign investment and carry trade, "India foreign exchange reserves went up by $2.98 billion during the week ended April 5 to scale a new all-time high of $648.562 billion." ET. Since then, "India's forex reserves declined by $2.41 billion to $637.92 billion as of April 26" as the RBI sold dollars to stop a sharp decline in the rupee's exchange rate. ET. In its meeting on 5 April, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI held its policy rate at 6.5% for the seventh time, "As the path for disinflation needs to be sustained till inflation reaches the 4% target on a durable basis," said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. ET. Also, "The Centre will buy back securities worth Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion), the RBI said in a release." BT. This is Quantitative easing in which the central bank buys back government bonds to inject liquidity into the market and drive down lending rates. Forbes. It is done when interest rates are already at near zero percent and cannot be lowered any further. But the RBI's interest rate is relatively high at 6.5% so why not cut that first? Perhaps because the RBI is afraid of a precipitous fall in the value of the rupee. Why, when the economy is predicted to grow by 7.5% in 2024 by the World Bank (Mint), the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate fell to 4.85% in March (pib.gov.in), giving a real interest rate of 1.8%, and forex reserves are at almost record levels? Maybe, the figures are not strictly kosher. The government knows, the RBI knows and foreigners know. Only we don't. As usual, we are the suckers.

We need to be selective.

"Reacting to the raging protests on American university campuses, India took a dig at the US government on 'democracy', an issue Washington regularly uses to lecture the world." "The spokesperson said there has to be a right balance between freedom of expression, a sense of responsibility, and public safety in every democracy." India Today. But, who decides what the right balance is? In July 2021, during a visit to India, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken "talked about a rising threat to global democracies and that the two leading ones should stand together to support the threatened ideals." Chinese spokesperson Zhao Lijian reacted by saying that democracy "is not a patent to any country." On India he said, "In some countries, without money you cannot get votes. Political parties place their interest above that of the people." HT. In February 2024, "The electoral bonds scheme was annulled by the Supreme Court" and the Court also ordered the State Bank of India "the only authorised seller, to furnish all relevant info to the election watchdog in a time-bound manner." ET. Out of a total of Rs 165.18 billion raised through the bonds, Rs 82.518 billion went to the BJP, with the Congress coming second with Rs 19.52 billion and the Trinamool Congress third with Rs 17.05 billion. The BJP received more than all others combined. The Wire. In  2018, "Iran is worried about the health of US democracy. Iranian state television zeroed on the voting irregularities reported throughout America during midterm elections." The Independent. In March 2024, "Russian President Vladimir Putin has criticized US elections, dismissing them as undemocratic while responding to Western critiques of Russia's electoral process." TOI. In January 2021, "Iran, Russia and China...scorned the scenes of Americans rampaging through the Capitol the day before as they tried to stop a peaceful transition of power." Times of Israel. In 2021, "North Korea has denounced Washington for using "American-style democracy'" as a tool to interfere in other countries' affairs, after the US hosted its Summit for Democracy." In February 2023, "BBC offices in India have been searched as part of an investigation by income tax authorities," "after the broadcaster aired a documentary in the UK critical of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi." BBC. In June 2023, "After a series of diktats surrounding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's presence at Delhi University's (DU) centenary celebrations on June 30, the Delhi police allegedly entered two student activists' houses and camped there for nearly five hours to ensure that they did not leave the house and that no disruptions were caused at the event." The Wire. Of course, the US is deeply flawed. But, should we criticise the US in common with China, Iran and North Korea? Not a good group, are they?  

Jobs are real.

In January, "Recent data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin, released in September 2023,  reveals that India's net household financial savings, encompassing bank savings, cash and investments declined to 5.1% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in FY23, down from 7.1% in FY20-21." India Today. "Household savings are broadly classified into two primary forms: financial and physical assets, with financial assets representing 56% and physical assets comprising 44% of the overall household savings, says global brokerage firm BofA Securities." "As of FY22, household savings in financial assets stand at Rs 28 trillion, twice the Rs 14 trillion seen in FY12. On average, an Indian household holds 77% of its total assets in real estate, 7% in other durable goods and 11% in gold." Mint. "India's household savings rate has declined from 22.7% of GDP in 2020-21 to 18.4% in 2022-23." However, in absolute terms, "Between 2018-19 (pre-pandemic) and 2022-23, household financial savings have declined from Rs 14.92 trillion to Rs 14.16 trillion," because household financial liabilities doubled to Rs 7.86 trillion. "But the physical savings of households in this period (including gold and silver ornaments) increased from Rs 23.52 trillion to Rs 35.47 trillion, an increase of Rs 11.95 trillion." So, physical savings are much higher than financial liabilities, wrote V Anantha Nageswaran. This resembles smoke and mirrors illusion. wikipedia. Rise in financial liabilities represent a drop in earnings in relation to expenditure, while the rise in asset values probably reflects the rise in market prices rather than new acquisition. The Monthly Per Capita Household Expenditure (MPCE) has increased from Rs 2,630 in 2011-12 to Rs 6,459 in urban areas and from Rs 1,430 to Rs 3,773 in rural areas over the same period. pib.gov.in. A large part of the increase in expenditure must have been driven by inflation which reached a high of 10.02% in 2013 and a low of 3.33% in 2017. macrotrends. Thus, households are being forced to spend more of their earnings on daily essentials at the cost of financial savings. At the same time, the price of 10 grams of gold has soared from Rs 26,400 in 2011 to Rs 74,145 today. bankbazar.com. This does not represent household earnings, which are recurrent, while the value of gold is a one-off. Similarly, growth of "Residential Property Prices in India averaged 10.48% from 2020 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 26.26% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and a record low of 1.10% in the third quarter of 2020." Trading Economics. However, selling a property is not an option because rents have jumped four-fold in one year in some cities. India Today. Fall in household savings reflect fall in earnings and that can be cured only with regular jobs. "Overall, the youth unemployment rate declined after 2017-18 dropping to 12.4% in 2021-22 and 10.0% in 2022-23." But the proportion of "youth with secondary and above education among the total unemployed has increased from 35.2% in 1999-00 to 65.7% in 2021-22." ilo-org. India needs real jobs with real incomes. Not a notional rise in asset prices. Pure bluff.      

We don't need his advice.

"President Joe Biden said...that 'xenophobia' from China to Japan and India is hobbling their growth, as he argued that migration has been good for the US economy." "The International Monetary Fund forecast last month that each country would see its growth decelerate in 2024, ranging from 0.9% in highly developed Japan to 6.8% in emerging India." Growth in the US will be at 2.7% slightly brisker than 2.5% last year. Reuters. India is doing quite well, thank you. "India is home to more than 600 million people aged between 18 and 35. India's demographic dividend is expected to persist at least until 2055-56 and will peak around 2041, when the share of the working-age population - 20-59 years - is expected to hit 59%," wrote Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan. Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced that "Since the launch of Operation Lone Star, the multi-agency effort has led to over 495,400 illegal immigrants apprehensions and more than 38,300 criminal arrests" and seizure of "453 million lethal doses of fentanyl". Texas has bused over 100,000 illegal immigrants to sanctuary cities (Britannica), such as Washington DC, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver and Los Angeles. texas.gov. If Texas has seized 453 million lethal doses of fentanyl, a similar number of lethal doses must have slipped through. Biden should be charged with murder due to neglect if people die of overdoses of the drug. In June 2023, Greater Los Angeles saw a 9% increase in homelessness to 75,518 people and "a 10% rise in the city of Los Angeles to an estimated 46,260 people." lahsa.org. In January 2023, New York Mayor Adams said "there's 'no more room at the inn' after learning that Colorado is the latest state that plans to ship illegal aliens to New York. We've seen the same kinds of responses from Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia and, of course, Martha's Vineyard, where authorities demanded the army come and remove the handful of border-jumpers Florida Gov Ron DeSantis had sent there." cis.org. Los Angeles (California), New York, Chicago (Illinois), Philadelphia (Pennsylvania), Martha's Vineyard (Massachusetts) and even Colorado voted for Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Texas and Florida voted for Trump. archives.gov. In fact, the history of the US is one of massive genocide due to illegal migration of Europeans. "European settlers killed 56 million indigenous people over about 100 years in South, Central and North America, causing large swaths of farmland to be abandoned and reforested ." Forests reduced carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting in cooling of the earth. This migration enriched Europeans as "Natural resources and food shipped from the New World helped Europe's population to expand. It also allowed people to stop farming for sustenance and begin working in other industries for spare money." CNN. The stupidity of allowing unchecked immigration can be seen in protests at US universities where large numbers of women (TOI) are supporting Hamas which raped and brutalized Israeli women on 7 October 2023 (BBC). Americans have a reputation of being stupid. Globe and Mail. They elected Biden.