Cover up to keep cool.

"Europe's unprecedented early summer heatwave may be responsible for hundreds of excess deaths," with 1,000 excess deaths recorded in France. "At least 74 people have drowned in France since the beginning of the heatwave, according to the Interior Minister Laurent Nunez." BBC. It is apparently because of an 'Omega Block'. "An omega block takes its name from the shape of the Greek letter omega (wikipedia) - with a bulge of warmer, settled high pressure held between two cooler low pressure systems." "Under normal conditions, the jet stream carries carries weather systems steadily from west to east. But during an omega block, that flow becomes disrupted and can buckle dramatically north and south, isolating the pressure systems." Reuters. In 2003, "the hottest summer recorded in Europe since 1540" resulted in 70,000 excess deaths. "In France, 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heatwave, according to the French National Institute of Health." wikipedia. "Air conditioning is very rare in European homes." "While nearly 90% of US homes have air conditioning, in Europe it's around 20%." The main reason is that up until now there has been no need for AC, houses are built to keep out heat in the summer and energy is very expensive. CNN. One reason for excess deaths among Europeans may lie in their reaction to heat. They tend to take off their clothes which exposes their bodies directly to heat and sunlight. The Arabian Middle East is desert-like and temperatures can reach 55 degrees Celsius in summer. Britannica. Of course, deserts radiate heat after sunset, so nights can be pleasant. The Rub al-Khali (rub means quarter, khali means empty) in Saudi Arabia is the largest area of continuous sand in the world. Britannica. Saudi men wear an ankle-length robe of fine cotton, called thawb (Pinterest) and cover their heads with a square piece of cloth, called Ghutra (saudipedia.com). Over centuries Arabs have adapted their clothing to the weather. White reflects light, and the body, head and neck are all protected from the sun and the hot wind. "The record-shattering June heat that's baked Europe this week would have been'virtually impossible' just a few decades ago, according to a new analysis, which says the human-driven climate crisis is 'unequivocally to blame'." "A similar heatwave occurring in June 1976 would have been a startling 3.5 degrees Celsius cooler, according to the study, which has not been peer-reviewed." CNN. "As of April 2026, real-time data and reports from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicate that 95 of 98 of the world's hottest cities are located in India." India is undoubtedly the hottest country in the world. "In 2016, for example, severe heat wave conditions affected Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra,  West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat." etvbharat.com. To survive such prolonged extreme heat people need water. India is blessed with hundreds of rivers, Fed by over 5,000 glaciers. wikipedia. Alarmingly, glaciers in the Himalayas and the Hindu Kush are melting rapidly (pib.gov.in) and there is nothing that the government can do to halt the process. "Water has become a struggle in the capital (Delhi), deciding people's sleep, work and daily routine." "In some areas, a family member stays at home or even skips work to wait for tankers so that water can be collected whenever it arrives." TOI. "In yet another act of unprovoked aggression against India, a Pakistani Minister threatened to 'cut off those hands' that sought to claim Islamabad's so-called share of water under the Indus Water Treaty. NDTV. Could desperate leaders of countries with citizens dying of thirst actually declare war on their neighbors? The end of the world could be nigh, indeed. Till then Europeans could adopt the Arab thawb. Cheaper than AC. No running cost.      

Don't wait for the Fed.

"In early June, RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra reportedly said that India had enough reserves to cover 11 months of imports." Even accounting for $110 billion in forward market commitments and $235 billion of short-term debt, reserves of $337 billion is enough to cover 5-6 months of imports, wrote Sudipto Mundle. In order "to attract stable long-term foreign capital" and increased participation in Government Securities (G-Secs) by foreign portfolio investors (FPI), the government has announced "tax exemptions on interest income, long term capital gains (LTCG) and short term capital gains (STCG), expansion of specified securities under the Fully Accessible Route (FAR), and streamlined investment norms." pib.gov.in. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was not to be left behind. In October 2025, the RBI loosened restriction on external commercial borrowings. "Companies may raise up to $1 billion or 300% of their net worth (whichever is higher), while financial sector firms regulated by RBI, Sebi, Irdai, or PFRDA face no cap." TOI. The idea is that companies will borrow at cheaper rates abroad to invest in India which will create jobs and increase economic growth, while the influx of foreign exchange will strengthen the rupee. The problem is that companies will have to repay in foreign currency and if profits and/or the rupee were to fall significantly they might find it difficult to service their loans. Last week, "India's central bank has allowed domestic lenders to extend loans to non-residents (NRI) against foreign currency deposits, including via their offshore branches." "Earlier this month, the RBI offered to subsidise hedging costs for foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits as a way to encourage banks to bring in dollar flows from the Indian diaspora." Reuters. Public sector banks (PSB) are offering up to 6.5% on FCNR(B) deposits (ET), which is more than they offer to domestic investors on fixed deposits of similar duration  (paisabazaar.com). Given a consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate of 3.93% (pib.gov.in) the real returns for domestic investors drops to around 2% and the weakening of the rupee reduces the value of their investment. Indian banks are offering around 100 basis points above yields on US 5-year Treasuries, which is at 4.142% (investing.com), but investors are demanding higher yields (ET). It will be lucrative for NRIs "as the nominal FCNR interest rate of 6-7% is higher than international floating rates and NRIs can expect high returns from arbitrage. If they leverage their deposits, annual returns could rise to a whopping 12-19%, according to a Times of India report," wrote Mundle. Since our foreign exchange reserves are adequate why are the government and the RBI so anxious to augment our reserves? Maybe because they are unsure of what the US Federal Reserve is going to do. "The central bank held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% this month, as widely expected, but at his first press conference Fed Chair Kevin Warsh surprised many by stressing returning inflation to 2% target as the priority with hardly any mention of the jobs market. But most say the Federal Open Market Committee will prefer to keep rates where they are in coming months." Reuters. "The dollar surged in response and looks set for a period of relative strength." "The dollar rally is an opportunity for Asian capitals to reconsider their options. Indonesia and India, whose currencies have also been under siege could have used a less muscular tone from Warsh," wrote Daniel Moss. "India is trying to defend both the rupee and the stock market simultaneously," wrote Shankar Sharma. Domestic investors are keeping share prices higher through systematic investment plans (SIP) allowing foreign investors to exit at higher prices. The RBI is preventing a fall in the value of the rupee giving foreigners more foreign currency in exchange. "The RBI cannot burn forex reserves defending the rupee, giving foreign capital minimal-cost exits. Nor can Indian investors blow up their savings, giving foreign capital zero-cost exits. India cannot fight a two-front war." Unlike Warsh, the RBI seems unwilling to annoy the government by raising interest rates. Borrowing at high rates to support the rupee to keep cost of oil, gas, and cooking oil down. Must be paid back in future. With interest.

Fighting to lose.

"The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) has paused the planned evacuation of more than 11,000 stranded in the Strait of Hormuz after a cargo ship passing through the waterway was attacked." "The attack came after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had warned that attempts to cross the strait along the route designated by the IMO would be 'unacceptable and completely dangerous' and vessels should communicate with Iran." BBC. Following that unprovoked attack, "The US military attacked Iran...in response to an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz," to which Iran said that, "Iranian naval forces responded by striking US military targets in the region. Tehran did not provide details." Reuters. It is incredible why Iran still has a navy when the US and Israel started attacks on Iran on 28 February (wikipedia), exactly four months to today. They should have destroyed every ship, boat, jetty right at the beginning. After all, ships and boats cannot be hidden in caves like missiles and drones. Starting 4 March, Iran's strategy has been to stop ships carrying oil and gas through the Strait  (congress.gov), causing a sharp rise in prices, in order to pressure the US. And so, "Alongside naval deployments and patrols, there have been reported incidents of gunboat fire to keep vessel movement through the Strait minimal," and "Central to sustaining this closure is Iran's use of naval mines, which can be tactically placed across the narrow maritime corridor to deter and deny the movement of ships." ORF. "Certain conventional surface vessels, like war ships or patrol boats, feature mine laying capabilities." Fishing boats can lay certain types. "Mines can also be dropped into the water via air, through either fixed or rotary winged aircraft, Submarines can use their torpedo tunes to lay some mines." Strauss Center. The US military has been attacking boats suspected of smuggling drugs since 2 September. "The US has since struck 59 boats in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean." At least 205 people have been killed. pbs.org. By now, every Iranian ship, boat, submarine, even inflatable dinghies, should have been destroyed. To allow Iran to engage in such open piracy is probably why the US keeps losing every war since Vietnam. Last week, "The presidents of the US and Iran have signed an initial peace deal aiming to end the war, allowing it to immediately take effect." It includes "reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a $300 billion plan for Iran's 'reconstruction', and the US terminating 'all types of sanctions on Iran'." BBC. This sounds like a complete surrender and Trump haters in the US, Europe and India have been celebrating. Trump's deal is much weaker than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015. Reuters. Yesterday, "The US struck multiple targets inside Iran for a second straight night...after Tehran allegedly attacked another oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz,...and pushing the already fragile ceasefire to the edge of collapse." NDTV. Soon after the US had lifted the naval blockade on Iran, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that "Trump had 'out of desperation used all kinds of leverage' to bring the deal about." BBC. Strangely, even as the regime and the media in Iran celebrated a victory over the US, hardliners in Iran warned that the "agreement would turn the Islamic Republic into a 'colony of the United States' and open the Strait of Hormuz to Israel." CNN. If both countries lost, which lost more? The Strait is a body of water. Iran should have nothing that operates on or below the water surface. First control the water. Then negotiate for oil.      

Don't stay down.

"About 10 years ago, less than one in 10 of India's poorest rural households owned a bike or car; now close to half do." Ownership of refrigerators has jumped from 2.9% to 22.5% in the bottom 40% of rural India while it has increased from 20.9% to 57.9% in urban areas. Mobile phones are ubiquitous. TOI. About 97% of people in the age group 15-29 years own mobile phones and 95.5% of them own smartphones. Over 92% have accessed the internet in the last three months (pib.gov.in) and a majority of them have used the United Payments Interface (UPI) (Kotak) for online transactions. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24 shows that the monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) of only 0.5% of rural and 0.4% of urban households, at 2023-24 prices, are at the same level as the bottom 10% of the population in 2011-12. In rural areas most are found in the 10th to 40th percentiles while in urban areas most are in the 20th to 30th percentiles. "Even accounting for population growth, this implies that nearly 114.5 million people or about 8% of India's current estimated population have moved above the real consumption level that defined the bottom decile," wrote Ashish Kumar & Payal Seth. This is a real eyeopener. But how was it achieved? The large proportion may be because, "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025, indicating substantial expansion in social security coverage in the country, data released by statistics ministry showed." TOI. "Over the past decade, government cash transfers, particularly directed at women and farmers, have emerged as a major welfare tool for poverty. Federal and state allocations for such schemes grew more than 20 times from under $2bn in 2015 to nearly $30bn, according to data from Project DEEP," BBC. During elections, "Free electricity, free bus rides, loan waivers, cash transfers, subsidised meals, free liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders, free consumer appliances and restoration of pension schemes have become familiar features of electoral campaigns." Political parties try to outbid each other in making reckless promises, uninhibited by any worries about how to finance these handouts, such are the perks of power in India. "Many states have to depend on heavy borrowing because their revenues are insufficient to meet growing commitments." In time, interest payments on their debt become a major part of their budgets. NUS. Handouts may prevent poverty and even increase spending of the bottom 10% but they are not going to create wealth. Jobs with proper salaries will. "Last year, 11.8 million Indians in their 20s were unemployed and about 6.8 million of them had been job hunting for over a year." "In terms of overall unemployment rate, about 10% of young Indian adults in their 20s were unemployed last year. This does not include around 40% who were not even looking for a job," wrote Prof Vidya Mahambare & Asrar Alam. Not sure of consumers' ability to spend, it is no surprise that Indian companies are reluctant to invest in new capacity despite higher earnings. "The aggregate net income of listed Indian firms is approaching 6% of gross domestic product (GDP). Even so, their capital expenditure has remained flat at 3.6% to 3.7% of GDP." "The good jobs that come with new factories, warehouses, and showrooms are becoming elusive." "India's per capita real income is less than half of 1950s America," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "India's predictable slide into economic mediocrity follows a well-trodden path into middle-income trap." "Weak authoritarian regimes" "provide only polarisation, slogans and hubris. But they are powerless when an external crisis hits." "High GDP growth that does not translate into more and better jobs, and results in weak inflation due to poor demand, signals a middle-income trap," wrote Rathin Roy. Trapped below the 1950s. Is there a way out? Not by staying down. Push everyone up instead.   

A country without citizens.

"A passport is primarily a travel document and should not be treated as proof of citizenship, a senior external affairs ministry official said...at an event to highlight the expansion of passport services across the country on 14th Passport Seva Divas. The passport attests the nationality of Indians when they are abroad but it isn't a document of citizenship, officials clarified." TOI. "In international law, nationality is a legal identification establishing a person as a subject, a national of a sovereign state." wikipedia. What then is the difference between a nation and a state? "A nation is a group of people with a common language, history, culture and (usually) geographic territory. A state is an association of people characterised by institutions of government, including laws; permanent territorial boundaries; and sovereignty (political independence)." Britannica. "There are 28 states and 8 Union territories in the country." And, "From the largest to that smallest, each State/UT of India has a unique demography, history and culture, dress, festivals, language etc." india.gov.in. Therefore, each state in India is a nation, but the states are not sovereign and cannot issue passports. Only the Union government can. But the Union government cannot attest to our nationality, only the states can. This confusion is dangerous. China "claims approximately 90,000 sq km of Indian territory in State of Arunachal Pradesh, Indian territory under occupation of China in Jammu & Kashmir is approximately 38,000 sq kms." mea.gov.in. If the people of these states are not citizens of India what will they defend? An application for a new passport requires any one of eight documents as proof of identity but not of citizenship. Bajaj Finserve. Apparently, the only real proofs of citizenship are Certificate of Naturalisation or a Certificate of Registration issued to foreign nationals obtaining Indian citizenship and birth certificate of an individual born after 1950 and their parents. News 18. So, what of those of us born before 1950 when no one had a birth certificate? We were born here, grew up here and have been paying taxes all our lives but we are not citizens. No wonder, "Close to one million Indians have renounced their citizenship over the last five years, with annual numbers crossing the 200,000 mark consistently since 2022, according to data presented by the government tin Parliament." TOI. Since they were not recognized as citizens by the Indian government they lost nothing. But they have gained citizenship of another country. Strangely, "An immigration officer in London, Paris or Washington is expected to place complete faith in the document, while the country that issues it reserves the right to treat with extreme caution and suspicion and ultimately to disregard it entirely." "A death certificate that merely suggested the possibility of death, a birth certificate that did not confirm birth, a driving licence that did not prove the holder could drive,...or a marriage certificate that did not affirm marriage would be laughed out of existence," wrote Rahul Bedi. If an Indian passport is issued on production of documents none which certify citizenship, is it being issued to illegal immigrants? If so, why? In 2019, 20 illegal immigrants from Bangladesh were arrested in Tamil Nadu who had "allegedly not only acquired ration cards and driving licenses but had also managed to get authentic Aadhaar cards and, through Aadhaar, passports." TINE. Perhaps, what the officials can't, or won't, say is that the entire bureaucracy is not to be trusted. Documents obtained with money aren't certifiable. Easier to deny citizenship to all Indians. The government is safe.       

Lavish gifts for foreigners.

"Kevin Warsh took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 22, 2026, for a four year term," and "also serves as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve System's principal monetary making body." Federal Reserve History. Warsh was expected to be dovish on interest rates, but "The Federal Reserve held US interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% after Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the central bank." The Fed's conclusion was, "The Committee will deliver price stability." BBC. Which hints at a tightening bias. "The dollar surged in response and looks set for a period of relative strength. That is precisely what beleaguered Asian currencies did not need," wrote Daniel Moss. Japan's yen fell to 161 against the dollar. "Japan spent an unprecedented $74 billion in the month to 27 May to back the yen." On 16 June, "the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its so-called policy rate to 1% from 0.75% - a level not seen since 1995." "Japan's interest rates were cut aggressively in the 1990s to combat the fallout from a collapse in prices of assets like property and shares." "The bank has been gradually raising its interest rate since March 2024." BBC. Japan's consumer price inflation rose to a high of 4% in January 2025, but has been well below the BOJ's target of 2%. rateinflation.com. Currencies of Indonesia and India have also been under pressure. " Indonesia "has waded into the market repeatedly over the past year," "But developments became more serious this month, when it (the rupiah) broke through the critical level of 18,000 per dollar and demand for the country's bonds crumbled. That pushed the Bank of Indonesia into an emergency quarter-point rate increase, followed by a hike of the same magnitude last Thursday." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been extremely clever. As always. "The RBI is not thinking about raising interest rates at the moment, Governor Sanjay Malhotra said." It is too early to discuss rate hikes, he said. India Today. "India's foreign currency reserves dropped USD 9.985 billion to USD 671.625 billion during the week ended 12 June due to a sharp drop in gold reserves, the RBI said." TNIE. "The RBI sold a net $8.94 billion in the foreign exchange market in April, while its gold holding remained stable." "The Indian rupee slumped to a record low of 96.96 per dollar last month," and so, "The currency was then shored up by firm RBI intervention over multiple trading sessions." "The RBI's net outstanding forward dollar sales stood at $95.30 billion as of end-April, compared with $103.06 billion as of end-March." Reuters. The central government "promulgated an ordinance exempting foreign institutional investors and the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) from tax on interest income and capital gains arising from investment in government securities." The RBI will bear hedging costs for external commercial borrowings of public sector banks. TNIE. The RBI has allowed banks to offer higher interest on FCNR(B) accounts of non-resident Indians (NRI) and "RBI absorbs the currency hedging cost (estimated at around 3.5%)," so that "Banks are now offering 6% to 7.1% on USD FCNR(B) deposits." Investmates. FCNR(B) accounts are held in foreign currencies are fully repatriable, can be converted to any other currency, earn a higher rate of interest than in the parent country and are free of tax in India. cleartax.in. Who will pay for all this generosity by the RBI for foreigners? The hapless Indian taxpayer of course. While determined not to increase interest rate, so that savers can earn more, the RBI is now projecting a higher consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.1% for this financial year (ANI). So Indians are to suffer higher costs, get less interest on bank savings, lose wealth from rupee depreciation and reward foreigners with lavish gifts. The colonial mentality has not gone. Still subservient to foreigners. We are second class.     

Water tankers in Delhi.

"In 2018, India sought to achieve 20% ethanol blending in petrol by 2030 but reached the goal five years early." "According to the government, ethanol blended petrol has so far helped the country save $1.7 trillion in foreign exchange," and "India slashed carbon emissions by 87 million tonnes, equivalent to planting 350 million trees." India produces ethanol from rice, maize and sugarcane and "it takes 9,854 liters of water to produce 1 liter of ethanol from rice (excluding water used during processing)." From maize it takes 3,714 liters and from sugarcane 3,837 liters, wrote Sayantan Bera. In August 2025, "With the launch of the India Semiconductor Mission and an outlay of Rs 760 billion, several fabrication and design facilities have been established," as well as, "Rs 100 billion allocated under IndiaAI mission to strengthen AI capabilities." pib.gov.in. Semiconductor manufacturing consumes vast volumes of water. "In 2023 alone, Semiconductor giant TSMC reported consumption of a staggering 101 million cubic meters of water." idtechex.com. In addition, "The global AI demand may even require 4.2-6.6 billion cubic meters of water withdrawal in 2027," and "Simultaneously, the total scope-1 and scope-2 water consumption of global AI could exceed 0.38-0.62 billion cubic meters, i.e. roughly evaporating the annual withdrawal of half of Denmark or 2.5-3.5 Liberia." oecd.ai. Ethanol, semiconductors, AI, everything needs water, so what? India has the world's largest population at 1.477 billion and rising. worldometers. Producing ethanol to save on crude oil is not only guzzling water but "Food grains have overtaken sugarcane as ethanol feedstock, risking food security. Farmers are shifting to maize and away from pulses, oilseeds and other cereals." BT. "India, once the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is expected to have little surplus for export for at least three seasons as El Nino weather conditions threaten cane production and rising ethanol demand squeezes supply." "India exported 6.8 million metric tons annually on average in the five seasons through 2022-23," but "This year after exporting around 800,000 tons, India banned shipments until 30 September." "India was expected to produce 30.95 million tons of sugar this season but output is now forecast at 27.9 million tons, below annual consumption of about 28.5 million tons." Reuters. "After nearly two weeks of stagnation, India's southwest monsoon is showing signs of life." But, According to the latest India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, the country has received just 53.1 mm rainfall between 4 June and 22 June, against a normal of 97.6 mm, leaving India with a rainfall deficit of 46%. Large parts of central, northern and peninsular India continue to remain in the deficient or large-deficient rainfall category." India Today. The result is that "live water storage in the country's 166 major reservoirs has dipped to 27.5% of their total storage capacity." However, this is still better than the average storage over the last 10 years. TOI. If that was meant to reassure us, it is actually terrifying. It means we are inches away from dying of thirst. "The Delhi Jal Board (DJB) supplies potable water in water deficit areas through around 800 department and hired water tankers from 25 emergency centers in different zones in Delhi." DJB. Saving money on petroleum to spend on importing pulses and cooking oil. Losing money on sugar exports. Wasting water on ethanol and chips when there is no drinking water. Never mind, happy news. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to undertake a three-nation Indo-Pacific tour covering Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand from July 6 to 11." TOI. Dear Leader working so hard for us. Brings tears to our eyes. That's precious water. Any sacrifice for Dear Leader.
  

The Empire's hangover.

 "British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would quit on Monday (yesterday), paving the way for the country to have its seventh leader in ten years. The chaos dates back to the Brexit referendum 10 years ago to the day on Tuesday (today). Reuters. "On 23 June 2016, the UK held a referendum on its membership of the European Union (EU)." "51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU. The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020." government.nl. Having lost the referendum David Cameron left in 2016, Theresa May in 2019, Boris Johnson in 2022, Liz Truss, after just 44 days in office, also in 2022, Rishi Sunak after losing the general election in 2024, which brought in Keir Starmer, with a super-majority for Labour in the House of Commons with 411 out of a total of 650 seats (House of Commons Library), but even that could not save him. Starmer lasted just two years, less than May and Johnson. According to the US National Bureau of Economic Research, "Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6%-8% by 2025 compared with if Britain had remained in EU, Productivity and employment reduced by 3% to 4% and Investment reduced by 12%-18%." These are enormous figures, but Covid may have contributed to the slowdown. Other institutions have calculated differently. Reuters. The Keir Starmer government was pro-EU, "But the tangible benefits have been limited." "Opinion polls show that a majority of people in Britain regret leaving the EU and want to rejoin the bloc. But a YouGov poll this month showed that support fell away once people were asked about the possible implications or costs of rejoining, particularly around immigration and the future of the pound." Reuters. Voters wanted a sharp reduction in immigration, but in this  "Brexit has failed spectacularly. Net migration to the UK has averaged 550,000 a year since 2021,...compared to 250,000 in the 2010s, according to the Migration Observatory of Oxford. In 2023, net migration was just under 950,000, an all-time high, as immigration by non-EU citizens spiked before dropping sharply." CNN. Why do people from other countries want to migrate to the UK, a tiny country with a land area of just 242,741 sq km, with a population of about 70 million (wikipedia), and a nominal GDP of $3.686 trillion in 2024 (World Bank)? Maybe because between one and two billion people in 88 countries and territories speak English  (wikipedia) and "An estimated 90% of the training data for current generative AI systems stems from English (The Convesation)." "Mainstream American English is entrenched in the digital infrastructure of the internet, in Silicon Valley's corporate priorities, and in the data sets that fuel everything from autocorrect to AI generated synthetic text." If you want your research paper in science to be read widely, it must be in English. "In 2023, about 85% of the roughly five million articles indexed in major global databases covering the natural, medical and social sciences were written in English. In 1990, the proportion was considerably higher: 94%." phys.org. The reason for this anomaly was the British Empire. "At its height in the 19th and early 20th centuries, it was the largest empire in history," and "By 1913, the British Empire held sway over 412 million people, 23% of the world population at the time, and by 1920, it covered 35.5 million sq km, 24% of the Earth's total land area." wikipedia. The British should realize that those days are over. Now the UK is just a small island with no natural resources. Get close to the EU, stop coddling illegal immigrants. concentrate on trade and services you are good at. Learn from Dubai, Singapore, Switzerland and other successful small countries. Or keep changing prime ministers.     

Protecting Boeing.

Last week, "US President Donald Trump lavished praise on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, saying he is a 'great leader' and 'tough guy', who has been in power for more than 12 years." "I think Modi is very good." "Just highly respected. I know the real Modi is a very tough cookie." The Print. At the G7 Summit in France, "When PM Modi appeared to reference their social media popularity, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni quipped, 'We are the most famous couple on Instagram'." At the COP28 summit in Dubai in November 2023, Meloni posted a selfie with PM Modi on Instagram, captioned 'Good friends at COP28 #Melodi'." TOI. Meanwhile, "Allegations about theft of donations and daily offerings to the Ayodhya Ram temple, one of Narendra Modi government's showpiece achievements, appeared to gain traction...with a police seizure of cash from a shrine employees home." Apparently, Rs 1.2 million was recovered from temple staffer Luvkush's home." TT. January 2024, "PM Modi has inaugurated a grand temple to Hindu god Ram in the flashpoint city of Ayodhya." "But some Hindu seers and most of the opposition boycotted it, saying Mr Modi was using it for political gain." BBC. Great leader, indeed. Most distressing, more than one year after the devastating accident of Air India flight 171 on 12 June 2025, killing 230 passengers, 12 crew and 19 people on the ground, with 67 seriously injured (wikipedia), there seems to be a reluctance to release the exact cause of the accident. "The Federation of Indian Pilots (FIP) has publicly accused the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) of omitting cockpit warning sequences and key technical evidence from its preliminary findings on the AI-171 disaster that killed 260 people." According to FIP's simulation, the Ram Air Turbine (RAT), which takes 18 seconds to deploy, actually deployed much earlier suggesting total electrical failure, "a theory reinforced by survivor accounts of flickering cabin lights". msn.co. Is it a craven attempt to protect Boeing, a US company? Not such a 'tough cookie', are we? The Ministry of Defence (MoD) intends to buy 114 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) Rafale fighter jets. In 2016, Mr Modi's BJP government scrapped a program to purchase 126 Rafales for $10-12 billion, "with extensive industrial participation and technology transfer with Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. for local manufacturing of 108 aircraft. Now we will have to pay $40 billion for 114 aircraft without any clarity about technology transfer, wrote Rahul Bedi. Till then, "In a move aimed at sustaining the operational capability of the Indian Air Force's (IAF) legacy Anglo-French SEPECAT Jaguar fleet, India is set to receive nine retired examples of the twin-engined combat aircraft from from the United Kingdom imminently for use as a source of spare parts and sub-assemblies." This IAF's effort to keep Jaguars flying "decades after the fighter had been retired by all other users," wrote Bedi. Celebrating 12 years in power. Scrounging, like the children, who collect oil from the millions of lamps during the festival of Diwali at Ayodhya, to be used for cooking. TT. "India's predictable slide into economic mediocrity follows a well-trodden path into a middle-income trap." "Growth is high, consumer inflation low." But, "Fresh graduates from our best institutions are taking entry-level jobs that aren't paying enough for them to be eligible to pay income tax." "High GDP growth that does not translate into more and better jobs, and results in weak inflation due to poor demand, signals a middle-income trap," wrote Rathin Roy. So, whence comes the greatness? "In India, music engineered to dehumanize religious minorities reaches hundreds millions of listeners," and is known as "Hindutva pop, H-Pop, the genre rooted in Hindu nationalist ideology." pbs.org. Stuck in low middle income, defending our skies with recycled junk and creating a fanatic mob of Hindu-ISIS - achievements over 12 years. Tough maybe. But, great?  

AI is dangerous for others.

"Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, at a technology conference in June, said that artificial intelligence is not a threat because it will create more jobs for humans rather than replace them." "He argued that AI will boost human creativity," and that "the project speeds up innovation and creates new industries, ultimately leading to a labor shortage rather than mass unemployment." Pure speculation. "The comments come when global companies cut thousands of jobs after investing heavily in AI, with many, primarily tech firms, pointing to higher efficiencies from the technology's higher adoption." "US based employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May with AI linked to 40% of layoffs." MC. In May, "Amazon has announced another round of job cuts, this time affecting its Selling Partners Services division after cutting around 30,000 jobs in the last six months." At the same time Amazon is aggressively expanding its AI investments, with executives asking teams "to adopt AI tools in order to automate routine tasks and streamline operations." Amazon CEO Andy Jassy "acknowledged last year when he said AI could help 'reduce' the company's workforce over time." TOI. Bezos speaks with forked tongue, perhaps. On water, Bezos said that AI should be given priority over human consumption. "Biological limits are real, but digital potential is limitless." Human comfort is "actively delaying the birth of a super-intelligence". Techgenyz. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said, "The pace of AI progress is very fast." "We're soon going to see risks around misuse of biology and around the models being autonomous and behaving in ways that humans don't expect them to behave." The Print. "Every piece of agricultural machinery, more or less, runs on software now." Once this software is vibe-coded by AI, agriculture could be shutdown by AI. Humans would starve and "Civilization would fall soon afterwards." This could happen if AI wanted to divert water for its own reproduction from human use. Also AI could design 100 superviruses, "Each virus is 10x as contagious as Covid, has a 90% fatality rate, and has a long initial asymptomatic period so that it'll spread far and wide before it starts killing its victims," wrote Noah Smith. Thankfully, India is far behind in the AI race, so, as the rest of the world is destroyed by AI, India will survive as an island of human ingenuity, where the newly launched digital system by the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE), called On-Screen Marking (OSM) for Grade 12 examination, failed miserably when students discovered that "pages were missing, answer sheets were marked wrongly, or the digital copies did not match the original paper answer sheets" (BBC). 19-year old Nisarga Adhikary took just one hour to find "serious flaws in CBSE's OSM system," including "hardcoded master password in plain text, client-side OTP validation bypasses, and risks of impersonation." The Print.  "Reliance will upend the economics of artificial intelligence by making the technology 'dramatically more affordable for every Indian', by the end of the decade,...said Jio Platforms' managing director, Akash Ambani." ET. Meanwhile, "Digital commerce in India has become a theater of quiet deception. Sellers cheat by design, and in a rush of a 10-minute grocery delivery, hundreds of millions of customers rarely notice they are being fleeced." ET. We Indians are naturally more intelligent than AI. We will leave big holes in the algorithm by mistake and cheat it. We are unbeatable.

We are not Musk.

The initial public offering (IPO) of Elon Musk's Texas-based SpaceX raised at least $75 billion from financial firms which bought shares at $135 a piece." Musk plans to use the money "to fund new future ventures: mining asteroids, colonizing Mars and putting AI data centers in space." BBC. SpaceX is valued at $1.75 trillion. Sounds crazy but, "SpaceX's valuation surged past $2 trillion following its blockbuster Nasdaq debut last week." However, after the initial buying it was down 6.5% to $178.50 on 18 June on profit taking. "It was still more than 30% above its $135 offering price." Reuters. SpaceX is one of its kind in the technology of reusable rockets. "The technology has reduced the cost of launching satellites from over $54 million per kilogram, to under $3 million." Today it conducts over 100 launches to earth's orbit annually. "The booster stages of reusable rockets can be used several times...one of its rockets was reused over 25 times," wrote Shouvik Das. This is somewhat like Henry Ford's assembly line which reduced the manufacturing time of a Model T from 12 hours to just 90 minutes and its cost from $825 in 1908 to just $260 in 1925. Also, Ford more than doubled the daily wages "from $2.25 to $5 a day, and therefore gave his own employees the opportunity to purchase the product they made." Automotive Training Centers. SpaceX is not just rockets but is into telecommunications and AI as well. "SpaceX says it operates roughly 9,600 Starlink satellites, serves around 10.3 million subscribers globally and provides connectivity services across 164 countries and territories." Its future plans include: "Orbital AI compute infrastructure, massive AI training clusters, space based data center capabilities and AI-enabled satellite networks." MC. The defensive implications of these technologies combined is unimaginable. Is all this even possible and can any industrialist in India ever dream of taking such risks? In India, Skyroot Aerospace and Agnikul Cosmos are aiming to launch satellites under 300 kg to "low-earth orbits of under 500 km from the Earth's surface." They are "also developing patented affordable rocket propulsion and 3D-printed body technologies to be able to turn rockets around at a rapid pace." Skyroot turned unicorn last month, wrote Das. "In business, a unicorn is a startup company valued at over US $1 billion which is privately owned and not listed on a share market." wikipedia. There is a yawning gap between $1 billion and $1,750 billion, so SpaceX will need some catching up. "At a time when two US AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI are heading towards public listings estimated to be worth several billion dollars," Indian founders may be "building high quality AI startups but lagging compute capacity, underdeveloped research ecosystem and slow domestic consumption are the reasons why India is trailing in AI." "India generates nearly 20% of global data but owns less than 5% of AI compute capacity." TOI. The government organized an India AI Impact Summit at Bharat Mandapam in Delhi from 16-21 February 2026.  wikipedia. In a recent podcast, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said that "the summit was extremely disorganized. DH. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that he "was sort of confused like when he (PM Modi) grabbed my hand and put it up, and I just wasn't sure what I was supposed to be doing." TNIE. Shut up, you two. Isn't it enough that you were photographed with the great man? This was real, not artificial. And not about intelligence. For the lobotomised Bhakts.        

As advised by Theodore Roosevelt.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 16 June addressed the deaths of Indian seafarers in a US military strike during an address to G7 leaders, which included US President Donald Trump." "While the Prime Minister did not directly mention the recent deaths of three Indian nationals, his comments appeared to underline New Delhi's concerns about the safety of civilian crews operating in conflict zones and the economic consequences of disruptions to maritime commerce." NDTV. India did condemn the attack without naming the US but, "In a big development, New Delhi has issued a demarche to the United States' top diplomat in Delhi after the attack." NDTV. Not only did the US fail to apologize for the murder of the three Indians but Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that he stressed to India's External Affairs Minister Jaishankar that "all commercial vessels should immediately comply with orders from US forces, which seek to uphold peace and security in the Strait. He underscored that violations of the US blockade and the illicit transport of Iranian oil will not be tolerated." NDTV. In short, we will kill again if we want to. Rubio's rude response can be understood if we remember that he represents the US, which is a most barbaric and violent nation, where "At least 40,000 people were shot in 2025 - more than 110 people a day across the country." "Still, 2025 marked a milestone, with shooting deaths and injuries plummeting to some of their lowest levels on record." The Trace. With such numbers in his home nation, Rubio probably thinks that deaths of three Indians may be ignored but, in 2013, when India's Deputy Consul General in New York Devyani Khobragade was arrested, handcuffed and then physically and sexually assaulted by US Marshals, India reacted swiftly by withdrawing "airport passes and diplomatic privileges for American consular staff, recalled identity cards issued to US Embassy personnel," and, most visibly, by removing "concrete barricades outside the main entrance of the US Embassy in New Delhi." India Today. Khobragade was promptly released. This time it was a demarche. Not concrete. "On 10 December 1971, the US Navy's 7th Fleet, operating under the name Task Force 74, was deployed to the Bay of Bengal as a show of strength in support of Pakistan." "The White House wanted to prevent a total Pakistani collapse. They hoped the show of strength would pressure India to back down, or at least create space for a negotiated ceasefire that could save face for Pakistan. But India didn't flinch." News18. Indira Gandhi was the prime minister in 1971. "A set of freshly declassified top secret papers on the 1971 war show that "Indira Gandhi went ahead with her plan to liberate Bangladesh despite inputs that the Nixon Administration had kept three battalions of Marines on standby, and that the American aircraft carrier USS Enterprise had orders to target Indian army facilities." TOI. 93,000 Pakistanis surrendered. wikipedia. Three days back, Zahed Ur Rahman, the Bangladesh Prime Minister's adviser on policy and strategy affairs returned home from Delhi airport "after he was stopped at the airport for 'verification'. Rahman told Bangladeshi media that he had been treated 'poorly' at the airport." Apparently, India had been informed 60 hours ahead of his visit and had not objected. The Print. In 2018, Mr Modi and other Indian leaders snubbed the then Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau when he visited India with his family. BBC. In April 2026, a report by the Auditor General of Canada showed that "Indians accounted for 51.6% of the incoming international student population in 2023. That fell to 33.6% in 2024, and by September 2025, the cohort's share has dropped to 8.1%." BS. "For more than a decade now, India has sought to build its 'strategic autonomy'." "The national interest, we were told, required us to be close to everyone, but not too close to anyone," wrote Mihir Sharma. Now our oil and gas are blocked by Iran and our sailors killed by the US. So, "India has friends everywhere, leverage nowhere." A former President of the US advised "Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." wikipedia. Indira Gandhi followed that in 1971. As did Manmohan Singh in 2013. Now it is bombast and demarche. Lost the big stick.

It's getting hot.

"India's retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May, driven by higher food and fuel costs, government data showed." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 5.1% from 4.6% earlier this month but kept rates on hold." Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, remained steady at 3.9%. Reuters. In March, "India's federal government retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2% to 6%, according to an official notification." Reuters. However, the RBI should not derive any comfort from the level of core inflation because its mandate is to target the consumer price index (CPI). The base year for measuring CPI inflation was changed from 2012 to 2024 to better reflect the changing patterns of consumer expenditure and the weights of the various items in the CPI were changed, with the weight of food and beverages sharply reduced from 42.62% in 2012 to 36.75 in 2024. Weights of housing, transport and personal care were increased slightly. finshots.in. "India's wholesale price inflation rose to 9.68% year-on-year in May," as "The data, the first print from the revised series with a base year 2022-23, showed inflation rose at the fastest pace in six months under comparable numbers calculated by the government under the new series." Reuters. In the wholesale price index (WPI), primary articles, which include agricultural produce and minerals, have a weight of 22.62%, fuel and power have a weight of 13.15%, while manufactured products are at 64.23%. Bajaj Finserve. While prices of agricultural products may fall if the harvest is abundant, prices of fuel, power and manufactured products never come down and are likely to feed into CPI inflation with a lag. India's agriculture is mostly dependent on natural rainfall but this year, "El Nino - the natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures - has officially begun, US scientists say." "Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called 'super' El Nino, and even be among the strongest ever recorded." BBC. Ominously, although this year's monsoon started on 4 June, "Fresh imagery from European weather satellite Meteosat, US weather agency NOAA and ISRO's INSAT-3DS satellite has revealed an unusual picture for mid-June large parts of central, western and peninsular India are missing the dense cloud bands normally associated with an active monsoon." "According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Central India recorded a rainfall deficit of around 65% between 4 June and 16 June," as "Several districts across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas have received little or no rainfall during a period that is crucial for kharif sowing." news18.com. If the monsoon plays truant, food prices could rise and could even force greater import of necessary items like pulses and edible oil. In addition, According to the Desertification and Land Degradation Atlas of India published by Isro's Space Applications Centre, about 30% of India's geographical area - spanning 97.85 million hectares - is undergoing land degradation. Of this, a staggering 25% is experiencing desertification." HT. India is already providing free food grains every month to 813 million people from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2028. MC. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was greeted by Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni as "the most famous couple on Instagram". TOI. Hot El Nino, hot inflation and hot Instagram. The heat is on.  

Follow SpaceX.

A week after its initial public offering (IPO), "SpaceX shares rose 4.8% to close at $201.80, giving Elon Musk's company a market value of roughly $2.655 trillion - some $800 billion more than when it sold its record IPO last week." Reuters. Music to Mr Mukesh Ambani whose Jio Platforms Ltd is headed for its own IPO. With 525 subscribers "paying Rs 214 a month on average, Jio garners $15 billion in operational revenue at a 52% Ebitda margin," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Is there enough money for the IPO? "About $55-65 billion is expected to flow into the country due to the RBI move to bear full hedging cost of banks for raising fresh 3-5 year FCNR(B) deposits and providing a concessional forex swap facility to incentivise ECBs (external commercial borrowing) by PSUs (Public Sector Undertakings), according to estimates by the State Bank of India's economic research department." The Hindu. This will result in a flood of liquidity into banks which will enable local institutions and savers to subscribe to Jio's $4 billion worth of IPO. However, former Credit Suisse analyst Ashish Gupta "reminds us that massive record-breaking IPOs have historically presaged market tops." Usually followed by deep market corrections. "The logic is straightforward: Mega-IPOs act as a structural liquidity drain, sucking vital capital out of  secondary markets." "The danger is particularly elevated in India where the banking system's 12% deposit growth is 4 percentage points slower than credit expansion," wrote Mukherjee. Will it produce jobs? "The aggregate net income of listed Indian firms is approaching a record 6%  of gross domestic product (GDP). Even so, their capital expenditure (new investment) has remained flat, hovering at 3.6% to 3.7% of GDP." "The good jobs that come with new factories, warehouses and showrooms are becoming elusive. Since wages support many more people than dividend or stock market gains, inequality is worsening." Only Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani, the Tata Group and Sajjan Jindal intend to invest, the rest do not. Even Pirojsha Godrej, chairman-designate of the Godrej Industries Group, plans wealth management, wrote Mukherjee. "A majority of global emerging-market (EM) investors continue to remain underweight on India...according to a report by Jefferies" which "analysed 70 large EM funds managing assets of about $320 billion as of March 2026 and found 61% of them were underweight India relative to benchmark allocations." FE. Indian manufacturers cannot compete against Chinese companies because the Chinese are subsidised through "3 major channels of sustained state support: direct state grants, preferential tax treatment and access to below-market borrowing through state-backed financial institutions. Together these reduce costs, lower investment risks and allow firms to expand more aggressively than competitors operating under commercial conditions," wrote Shishir Priyadarshi. One big problem is that state governments refuse to honor contracts made by previous governments. "Political parties across the board are guilty of reversing their predecessor's decisions or refusing to honor the commitments of past governments, citing reasons such as corruption, illegal tendering, environmental concerns and public interest. There may be some truth in these reasons, experts argue, but the end result is dwindling investors' confidence in Indian states." The Print. Trickery by the Chinese, vindictiveness of Indian politicians or fear of losses of Indian businesses, lack of investment means no jobs. The JIO IPO will probably sail through. Because of SpaceX. Musk's genius.    

The 33rd honor.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi was yesterday conferred with Slovakia's highest national award, The Order of the White Double Cross (1st Class). This is PM Modi's 33rd international honor." NDTV. This is very satisfying. 'Double cross' is very meaningful (Dictionary), especially if it is '1st Class', and 'White'. Meanwhile, back home, "Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) founder Abhijeet Dipke was slapped and manhandled at a protest meet in Jaipur yesterday. Dipke had called for a peaceful protest....to oppose paper leaks and unemployment, and demand the resignation of Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan." TNIE. Dipke needs to be careful because lynching by mobs is common across India (wikipedia) and very often go unpunished. Jaipur is the capital of Rajasthan which has a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by the BJP with 118 seats out of a total of 200 assembly seats (wikipedia). On 12 June, "Around 4,000 electronic voting machines (EVMs) used in nearly 10 constituencies of South Bengal in the recent Assembly elections were destroyed were destroyed in the fire that engulfed a government building in Alipore," and "According to sources, the fire gutted 4,000 ballot units, 4,000 control units and 4,000 VVPAT machines reportedly belonging to key constituencies." DC. VVPAT, or Voter verifiable paper audit trial, allows voters to check that their votes were allotted correctly and detect possible voting fraud. wikipedia. Therefore a very thorough fire, leaving no trace behind. Fires are not unknown in official buildings in India, usually whenever there is a controversy. In 2012, "The fire at the Mantralaya (Ministry building) destroyed scores of files and official records." "There were claims that the fire was set off to destroy documents related to the Adarsh scam." HT. In the Adarsh Housing Society scam, politicians, bureaucrats and military officers contrived to buy flats at a prime location at below market price. wikipedia. While politicians and officials are protected by fires, journalists and citizens can be charged with fictitious offences and harassed over years even if exonerated in the end. "To allow the Delhi Police's foreign investment case against Newsclick to proceed would entail a 'gross abuse of the process of law', while the Enforcement Directorate's (ED) resting proceedings consist of 'bald assertions' that do not 'even remotely' point to an offence, the Delhi high Court has ruled, quashing both cases against the outlet." The Wire. The case has been going on since 2020, while in 2023, the publisher was arrested and journalists and offices raided, thus achieving the objectives of intimidation, coercion and harassment. In the US, "Members of both the Democratic and Republican parties on Capitol Hill have begun voicing increasing criticism of proposed changes to India's Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) which they believe could adversely impact civil society groups - including Christian organisations - by preventing access to foreign funds and having their assets seized." HT. The ED has already charged The Timothy Initiative and many individuals under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act for using "foreign-origin debit cards issued by a US bank to withdraw and utilise foreign funds across India." The Print. Bail is denied and people incarcerated indefinitely on dubious evidence under UAPA. livelaw. The conviction rate for UAPA accusation is just 4% in the whole country and an abysmal 0.8% in Jammu and Kashmir. NDTV. An honor for Dear Leader is an honor for all Indians. We have all been Double Crossed. It's 1st Class. And white.  

Lagging per capita.

"India's economy grew an unexpectedly strong 7.8% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, the government said, as robust private investment, farm output and construction activity offset the early impact of the Middle East conflict." "India estimates GDP growth for the full fiscal year that ended at 7.7%, the National Statistics Office said." Reuters. "Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis dismissed concerns about an economic slowdown in the country, saying India has the capacity to repay 94% of its foreign debt in a single day." Earlier, our situation was more precarious. MC. This comfort is due to the foundation built by earlier prime ministers and our reserves are an insurance, not disposable cash. "Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan has questioned whether India's strong economic growth figures fully reflect conditions on the ground, arguing that weak corporate investment and foreign capital inflows are difficult to reconcile with official data showing the economy expanding at more than 7%." ET. In 2026, at current prices, India's GDP per capita is $2,800 while that of Bangladesh is $2,900 and of South Africa is $7,500. imf.org. If the economy is growing gangbusters our companies should be increasing their business. But, "For the first time since at least 2000, no India company ranks in the top 10 of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a benchmark that shapes how hundreds of billions of dollars are allocated to developing economies worldwide." "Total assets benchmarked to MSCI's emerging market indexes including active funds that measure their performance against the same benchmark, exceed $1.8 trillion, MSCI data show." HT. "Foreign investors remained sellers in Indian equities, dumping more than Rs 628.53 billion of shares in the first fortnight of June," and "With the latest outflows, total withdrawals by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from Indian equities have surged to Rs 2.87 trillion in 2026." ET. India-focused funds have pulled out $770 million in the latest week alone, while "US technology focused funds recently attracted a record $9 billion in inflows, while broader US equities saw $10 billion in foreign investments." And, "While India and China have seen outflows, markets like Taiwan and South Korea - which are globally recognized hubs for AI hardware, semiconductors, and electronic supply chains - have attracted over $9 billion in combined inflows." Whalesbook. Previously, FPI selling would cause markers to decline, but "In 2022, despite heavy FPI outflows of over Rs 1.2 trillion, the Nifty 100 generated a positive return of 4.9%. Similarly, in 2025, FPI selling of about Rs 1.64 trillion did not prevent Nifty 100 from gaining over 10%." This is because domestic investors are constantly buying Indian stocks through Systematic Investment Plans (SIP) of mutual funds. Mint. Despite domestic buying, "India's equity market was overtaken by Taiwan and South Korea in quick succession, pushing what was once emerging Asia's darling to seventh in the world by market capitalization." "India's share in the MSCI Global Standard index has shrunk to 12.3% from a peak of 21% in September 2024." Reuters. Domestic buying supports prices of stocks and allows foreign investors to sell at higher prices, increasing their profits and depleting our foreign exchange. "True earned reserves come from sustained current account surpluses (like China has). India rarely runs one." "A large portion  of India's reserves are better understood as 'rented capital' rather than earned surpluses." The stock market should be allowed to fall to protect the rupee. "Countries survive stock market crashes. But countries routinely go bankrupt because of currency crashes," wrote Shankar Sharma. Even with GDP soaring we haven't caught Bangladesh as yet. South Africa is far beyond the horizon. What exactly are we celebrating?    

Punishment vs morality - a conundrum.

"At the invitation of the President of France, H.E. Mr Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi will be undertaking an official visit to France from 13-14 June 2026 (Nice), and 16-18 June 2026 (Evian and Paris), as also Slovakia from 14-16 June 2026. mea.gov.in. Mr Modi "arrived in Nice yesterday as part of his official visit to France," where "Modi and Macron are set to hold bilateral discussions covering key areas of cooperation between India and France." Mr Modi will also meet President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit "amid strains in India-US relations following Operation Sindoor and Washington's decision to impose steep tariffs on New Delhi." TOI. Operation Sindoor followed a terror attack at Pahalgam in Kashmir on 22 April 2025, when three terrorists shot 26 civilians to death, of whom 24 were Hindus, one a Christian and one a Muslim pony ride operator. wikipedia. In retaliation, India is also withholding water under the Indus Water Treaty. "With India keeping the Treaty in abeyance, a severe water shortage across Sindh and Balochistan is fueling fears of an 'economic massacre' in agricultural regions." "According to Dawn, the crisis is becoming increasingly visible around the Sukkur barrage," which "supports millions of acres of farmland across Sindh and Balochistan, making it critical to Pakistan's economy." TOI. The Indus Water Treaty "gave control of the waters of the western rivers - the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab - to Pakistan and those of the eastern rivers - the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej - to India." The British constructed a large canal system but, after Partition, the headworks came to India feeding the canals running through Pakistan. India started withholding water to Pakistan. The Treaty, with funding from the World Bank, provided for the "building of dams, link canals, barrages and tube wells - notably the Tarbala Dam on the Indus River and the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River. These helped provide water to Pakistan in the amounts it has previously received from rivers now assigned to India's exclusive use." Britannica. The situation is deeply troubling. If India is not receiving any water from Pakistan's rivers, why should India share its waters with Pakistan while Pakistan actively supports a policy of 'death by a thousand cuts'  (wikipedia) which was invented as "Lingchi" by India's existential enemy, and Pakistan's iron brother, China, whose mutual infatuation is "higher than the mountains, deeper than the sea, sweeter than honey, and harder than steel"(ciis.org.cn)? On the other hand, is it morally justifiable to engineer a severe drought which destroys agriculture, causing hunger, maybe even starvation, to a large population of civilians including children, who have nothing to do with the Pakistani Army or terrorism? Is an "economic massacre" any better than a massacre with guns?  "Moderate to strong El Nino conditions are likely to prevail during India's June-September monsoon season (Reuters), because of which the India Meteorological Department "downgraded its long-range seasonal monsoon forecast, predicting 90% of average rainfall between June and September (DH)." India may also need more water from the same rivers. On the other hand, in November 2025, "The Sindh region may not be with India today, but borders may change and the region may return home to India, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said." NDTV. Not if people and cattle have died of starvation. In 2015, Pakistan's Army accused India's Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of inciting insurgency in Balochistan. BBC. In August 2019, "Irrespective of being a province within the territory of Pakistan, people of Balochistan expressed their solidarity with Indians on the occasion of the country's 73rd Independence Day and said they need India's support to free their land from the domination of Pakistan and its military establishment." ANI. India needs water. Pakistan needs to be punished. Sindh and Balochistan are suffering. The very provinces India wants to befriend. A difficult conundrum. What is the solution? Over to Dear Leader. But, where is he?    

Carefully locked in.

"Amid significant depreciation in the domestic currency, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said it will absorb hedging cost for foreign currency deposits mobilized by Indian banks till 30 September 2026." "RBI had last introduced an FCNR (foreign currency non-resident) deposit scheme during the 'taper tantrum' of 2013," and "The scheme had then brought in over $20 billion of foreign flows, giving non-resident Indians (NRI) attractive tax-free returns." Mint. In August 2013, "The Indian rupee has dropped by nearly 4% to a new low of 68.7 to the US dollar," as "The rupee has lost 20% of its value this year." This was in reaction to then US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke saying that the Fed was going to start to "taper" its bond buying program. BBC. "RBI has opened the dollar tap by taking on the currency risk itself to draw in overseas money," as "The RBI will not charge any premium for swapping dollars raised through FCNR(B) deposits, effectively absorbing the entire forex risk and allowing banks to offer higher returns to NRIs." NRIs can use this arbitrage opportunity to borrow at cheaper rates abroad and pocket the difference." TOI. The dollars that banks borrow "can be parked with RBI at the spot exchange rate; after 3 years (or 5), when the deposits have to be returned, banks can take those dollars back by paying the same amount of rupees they got when they parked the funds with the RBI." The RBI has capped the interest on these dollar loans at a maximum of 7.15%. This is a masterstroke as this will increase rupee liquidity in banks, while increasing RBI's forex reserves, by $20-$50 billion, wrote Madan Sabnavis. In its latest meeting the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI left its interest unchanged at 5.25%, while projecting GDP growth at 6.6% and consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.1%. newsonair.gov.in. Interest rate at 5.25% is "too small a premium when the Fed's target range is 3.5% to 3.75%, and expectations are growing that its next move will be a hike. It's very clear what the authorities are trying to do here - stabilize the currency, keep domestic rates low and avoid capital controls. Juggling with the three objectives requires putting taxpayers on the hook, which is what an expected 3% concession on dollar borrowers' hedging cost effectively means," wrote Andy Mukherjee. It would be better for the RBI to raise interest rates. The GDP has grown by 7.8% in Q4 FY26 and by 7.7% in 2025-26. The current account was in a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in Q4 of FY26 and remittances from abroad grew 25%, wrote Soumya Kanti Ghosh, member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. The RBI "may have to manage inflation expectations, currency stability and liquidity conditions simultaneously without relying on a single policy instrument." It must not increase interest rate or reduce liquidity in the markets, but sell dollars to support the rupee and wait for inflation to come down by itself, advised Mr Ghosh. The MPC meeting predicted CPI inflation at 4.2% in Q1 FY27, 5.1% in Q2, 5.9% in Q3 and 5.4% in Q4 of FY27. The Fixed Income. Which means "the real effective rate of interest falling close to zero by the second quarter (if one considers the repo rate of 5.25% and second quarter inflation of 5.1%) and a negative 0.65% if one takes the third quarter inflation projection of 5.9%." The best course of action would have been to hike interest rates as "that would discourage consumption, and encourage foreign debt flows and, most importantly, dampen inflationary pressure." The RBI is trying to "fill a leaky bucket. A futile exercise. And one that may cost us dear," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "Interest rates across the world are rising again. ECB increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) for the first time in three years, after the central banks of Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka hiked interest rates. Mint. Those central banks probably think about citizens, while Indians will lose out by earning interest lower than inflation on their savings, as well as transfer their taxes to NRIs. These FCNR(B) deposits will be locked in for 3-5 years, which will be after the next general election  in May 2029 (wikipedia). That's all that matters. Don't ask. Just vote. 

The weakness in longevity.

On 26 May, Narendra Modi completed 12 years as prime minister, as "On this day in 2014, Mr Modi took the oath as Prime Minister." newsonair.gov.in. Apparently, he became the longest serving prime minister on 10 June, 2026. The Union Cabinet passed a resolution, applauding this milestone. "By establishing a record of 4,399 days of continuous service as an elected PM, he has surpassed the previous record held by Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, who served for 4,398 continuous days from 1952 to 1964." pib.gov.in. "Leaders from across the world, including US President Donald Trump, congratulated PM Narendra Modi,...with several describing the milestone as a reflection of the trust reposed in him by voters over three consecutive parliamentary elections." TOI. If we are talking numbers, then Mr Modi did not win the 2024 general election outright. With 240 seats, the BJP is well short of the required majority of 272, and Mr Modi has managed to hang on to his kursi (chair) with the support of TDP (16 seats), JDU (12 seats) and an assortment of smaller parties. indiavotes.com. Mr Nehru never had any need of multiple poles supporting his kursi and neither did Ms Indira Gandhi. adrindia.org. It is unclear how Mr Modi has surpassed Mr Nehru with 4,399 days in office since, "Nehru was in office for over 6,000 days, from 15 August 1947 till 27 May 1964, the day he died." "Indira Gandhi was also in office for almost 6,000 days, which is likely the reason that awkward word'uninterruptedly' has been used," wrote Aakar Patel. How will Mr Modi be remembered in 2086, after six decades. Most likely he will be forgotten like many other prime ministers India has had. But, why is Nehru still remembered and why does the BJP still keep bringing him up? "It is because of what he left behind." Nehru left behind institutions of every sort - educational, scientific, cultural and medical. The present period will be remembered for "Bulldozers, lynchings, Special Intensive Revisions (wikipedia) and so on. Trump's congratulation of Mr Modi is ironic, in that his second term will end on 20 January 2029 (govtrack.us) and he is barred from standing again. Mr Modi has no intention of giving up his kursi. Trump was impeached twice during his first term. Trump was ordered to pay more than $350 million in a case of business fraud by a court in New York in February 2024. BBC. Can anyone be mad enough to imagine that Mr Modi can ever be held to account in a court of law in India? Mr Modi never answers questions. In May 2026, "As he walked away after a joint press appearance with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, journalist Helle Lyng called out to him, asking why he does not take questions, but got no response." "Later in a press conference by Indian diplomats, "Lyng asked, 'Why should we trust you (India)? Can you stop the human rights violations that go on in your country?'" BBC. In the Netherlands, Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten "told reporters just before Modi arrived that there were concerns among the Netherlands and other EU member states about 'developments in India' under Modi's BJP." The Wire. "The Catholic Church has strongly criticised the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)" and "referred to an incident in Odisha where a pastor was allegedly forced to eat cow dung during a prayer meeting by right wing goons." The Wire. In another incident in Odisha, a pastor's wife complained to the police that "a mob of 15-20 people allegedly assaulted her husband, smeared sindoor (vermillion used by married Hindu women) on his face, garlanded him with footwear and paraded him through the village. She further alleged that the group forced him to drink drain water and bow before a temple against his will." The Wire. Ms Georgia Meloni is the Prime Minister of Italy whose capital, Rome, is where the Vatican City (wikipedia), the epicenter of Catholicism, is based. So why did these leaders praise Mr Modi when they know how he wins elections by inciting Hindus, using investigative agencies to harass opposition leaders (Reuters) and dropping g all criminal charges against opposition politicians who join the BJP, so that the BJP is called the "washing machine party" (The Print)? Because they know that a man who will do anything to stay in his kursi is terrified of losing power in case he is held to account for his actions. So they can make him do what they want. They control India.