Thursday, May 07, 2020

Confusion is no good for business.

Blind panic about the coronavirus is no good, wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. "In many countries, especially in the developing world, it is leading to policies that generate more risks -- such as economic hardship, food insecurity, and generalized anxiety -- than they mitigate." "The chance that a person will die from covid-19 in Europe is typically 2-4 thousand times higher than in Africa or South Asia. Even when considering only the better-performing European countries, the gap is large: the risk of covid-19 fatality in Germany is about 100 times higher than in India." A view shared by SA Aiyar, who wrote that mortality increased in countries that imposed strict lockdowns, by 60% in Belgium and by 51% in the Netherlands, but only by 12% in Sweden where there is no lockdown. "From New Delhi to Tiruppur, one of the principal side-effects of the pandemic is that the licence raj of the 1970s is back with a vengeance," wrote Rahul Jacob, as local administrations crack down on businesses because of conflicting and vague orders from the government. Self-isolation is impossible in India, wrote Rangoli Agrawal. "Of the 246 million households in Census 2011, about 103 million households average more than three people to a room." Not just at local levels, there is confusion at the highest level as well. "The government in April reached out to more than 1,000 companies in the US and through overseas missions to offer incentives for manufacturers seeking to move out of China, according to India officials who asked not to be identified, citing rules on speaking with the media," wrote Archana Choudhary. At the same time, "Union Minister Nitin Gadkari on Tuesday said the government is considering introducing a policy on import substitution and urged India Inc to upgrade technologically and come up with cost effective substitutes to reduce the country's inward shipment." How will companies get raw materials and parts to manufacture in India? Cost of manufacture in India maybe cheaper than in the US and Japan but it will still be more expensive than China. Apparently, "India expects to win over US companies involved in healthcare and devices" but why they should be interested with price caps on medical devices and drugs, is not explained. Faced with starvation due to the shutdown millions of migrant labor have been frantic to return to their home villages, creating a shortage of labor as the government seeks to ease the lockdown. To stop the exodus, the BJP government in Karnataka canceled special trains to force migrants to stay back and get back to their jobs. However, faced with massive criticism it has backed down. Why would anyone want to come here?

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