Sunday, May 03, 2020

The dollar has fallen against gold, the rupee against the dollar.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asked the civil aviation ministry to expedite privatization of six more airports in a bid to make them more efficient and garner more revenues for the exchequer." He has asked the tendering process to start within three months. Although why anyone would rush in to buy an airport with air services banned for coronavirus outbreak is not clear. The ban will remain in place until the government is sure that "spread of the virus has been controlled and it poses no danger to our country and people". "Indian airlines, excluding market leader IndiGo, will need to raise a minimum of $2.5 billion to survive the grounding due to the lockdown imposed to contain Covid-19 pandemic, aviation consultancy firm CAPA India said in a report on Friday." "Introducing social distancing at airports is 'physically impossible', the boss of Heathrow has warned." Airlines will have to keep the middle seat vacant which will reduce the number of passengers and increase prices. Fewer people will fly. A survey of CEOs in India revealed that 45% expect economic recovery to take over one year and 15-30% of jobs to be lost. Which means, fewer business flights. The solution is for the Reserve Bank (RBI) to print rupees, by directly buying government bonds or debt, which would allow the government to stimulate demand by spending, and also by buying corporate bonds, which would give money to companies to invest or relieve banks of bad loans and allow them to lend again. With revenues collapsing because of the shutdown of the economy to control Covid-19, the combined fiscal deficit of the center and states is expected to shoot up to 15%, wrote Udit Misra. Printing large amount of currency carries the risk of a fall in its value against foreign currencies and consequent rise of prices of imported goods leading to inflation. But, with demand severely suppressed, there is little danger of that. Also, other currencies too are losing value since other central banks are also printing money to reduce the effect of lockdowns on their respective economies. After all, one ounce of gold cost just $250 in 2001 but is now selling at around $1700. Though the gold standard was abolished by Richard Nixon in 1971 it surely shows how the mighty dollar has fallen. Trouble is, the rupee has fallen against the dollar even more, from Rs 4.16 to the dollar in 1947 to 69.18 in 2019. The rupee is near 76 to the dollar today. There are calls to transfer money to the poor to prevent hunger and hardship, which is entirely reasonable. But transferring money will immediately increased demand but supplies will take much longer because the chains are broken. Laborers who have returned to their villages maybe reluctant to return and 50% of trucks are off-road because of a lack of drivers. A devaluation of the rupee and a spike in inflation are distinct possibilities. Better to sell unwanted airports.

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