Friday, October 31, 2014

Will Britain become a part of the middle east?

Last week 33 Egyptian security personnel were killed in attacks in the Sinai Peninsula. Ever since Mohamed Morsi was ousted as President by the army last year there have been sporadic attacks on Egyptian security forces but the Muslim Brotherhood has denied all knowledge, asserting that it is completely peaceful. Egypt has blamed Qatar, Turkey and Iran for financing the attacks and the Hamas in Gaza for orchestrating them. Egypt is now going to demolish all houses along the border with Gaza, to create a 500 yard buffer zone, and dig trenches filled with water to prevent Hamas from digging tunnels into Egypt. Hamas had been using tunnels into Egypt to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza and to smuggle arms into the territory. In July there was a war between Israel and Hamas after 3 Israeli teenagers were kidnapped and shot dead by Palestinians. Israel rearrested men who had been released in exchange for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier kidnapped and held captive by Hamas for 5 years. Hamas responded by firing thousands of rockets into Israel. A senior intelligence officer admitted that Israel had seriously underestimated the training of Hamas fighters and the amount of arms they had managed to smuggle in. Hamas had built tunnels into Israel through which they sent fighters to try and kidnap Israeli soldiers. They claimed to have abducted Lt Hadar Goldin, who was later found dead. Israel has a Hannibal Directive which says that any abduction of an Israeli soldier will invite heavy fire even if the kidnapped soldier is killed in the process. It is a tacit admission that the soldier, his family and the state of Israel will suffer much less torture if the soldier is dead. About a week before the attack on Egypt the British parliament adopted a motion recognising a Palestinian state, in a blatant act of interference in the affairs of another country. Britain is known for its rabid anti-Semitism. Shylock, in the Merchant of Venice by William Shakespeare, is the absolute example of humiliating racism. While the British parliament was passing its anti-Israeli motion, allegedly to promote peace through a two state solution, the British government, including its monarch, was preparing a red carpet welcome for the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, because Qatar owns a lot of businesses in Britain. Qatar happens to be one of the largest financiers of terrorism in the world today. For money Brits will humbly prostrate themselves in front of the Emir even though they have not recovered from the trauma of losing the 2022 World Cup to Qatar, allegedly due to bribery. There is also a question of, what is known as, ' minority appeasement ' in India. Perhaps Britain will become part of the middle east.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

An all out economic war or a slow collapse?

The Federal Reserve in the US has stopped its massive bond buying program, known as Quantitative Easing. The aim was to flush banks with cash to force them to lend to businesses. By reducing the supply of bonds the Fed pushed up bond prices, which meant yields on 10 year bonds are at all time lows, in an effort to lower long term interest rates. However, some experts believe that instead of depending solely on monetary easing the US government should have resorted to fiscal stimulus by increasing spending on infrastructure. They say that banks simply hoarded the cash, so that they are sitting on $2.7 trillion, instead of lending to small businesses while large companies, with high cash balance, bought back their own shares to return cash to shareholders. There is no doubt that asset prices, such as those of stocks and real estate, have jumped while wages have remained stagnant, as high unemployment has reduced the bargaining power of workers, thus increasing inequality between the rich and the poor. In a recent speech Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen said that wealth inequality is worse than income inequality. In 1989 the top 5% of households held 54% of the total wealth reported but this had increased to 63% by 2013 whereas the lower half of all households collectively held 3% of all wealth in 1989 which has fallen to just 1% in 2013. Others say that companies are refusing to repatriate their foreign earnings because they will have to pay tax at 35% while some companies are borrowing large sums from banks because interest rates are so low. This was the third round of quantitative easing, stock prices fell each time the first 2 rounds ended, so some are predicting that share prices will start falling when the Fed stops buying bonds. In all the Fed has spent $4.45 trillion on its easing program which will keep interest rates low for a prolonged period. A large part of this stimulus came to emerging markets, increasing asset prices and making other currencies stronger relative to the dollar. Emerging market central banks bought up dollars to make their currencies weaker and to build up reserves. Now that the Fed has stopped buying bonds will asset prices and currencies fall. The dollar is already stronger against most currencies. As imports get cheaper in the US will it encourage US consumers to go on a shopping binge again, increasing the trade deficit and building up debts, we do not know. The Eurozone is in danger of deflation as even Germany is slowing down but European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi is hesitating to start buying bonds because of the focus on wealth inequality after a book by Prof Thomas Piketty. There is a threat of disinflation over many countries. Inflation is very high in India and will fall with falling commodity prices, which is great but a lot will depend on the rupee and asset prices. As each country tries to cope will there be a global crash? We can only be spectators.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The business of talking.

In an email interview Shenggen Fan, Director of International Food Policy Research Institute says that there is a food crisis in the 3 west African countries hit by Ebola. Although global food prices are at their lowest level in 4 years the price of food in these countries has shot up by 24%. " In Kailahun agricultural district in Sierra Leone, 40% of farmers have abandoned their farms for safer zones and 90% of plots there are uncultivated, according to FAO," he said. His solution is " a conditional cash transfer programme linked to health can help improve access to nutritious foods...". Brilliant! How will these people buy nutritious foods if they are too terrified to go to the market, if the shops are closed because shopkeepers have moved away to a safer area or if transport drivers refuse to go into infected areas. We have written earlier that the solution to this crisis lies in a massive distribution of free food to everyone in these countries by international agencies. The total population of the 3 countries combined is just 20 million, equal to any large city, so it will cost much less than trying to provide medical care and isolation. Every family should be given a month's supply of rice or wheat, eggs, milk powder, tea, sugar, salt, oil, potatoes, onions, soap, toothpaste, and maybe a few live chickens. It would be safer, kinder and cheaper. Sadly, we cannot reach those in power and there are too many people who profit from the deaths of others. Meanwhile, the US has warned Russia from supporting separate elections in the east of Ukraine. It is alright for the US to back fraudulent elections in the west of the country, which ignores half the population, because this was won by those who support integration with Europe. The US considers itself a bastion of democracy and will ensure that every country adopts its diktats, by renditioning and water-boarding if necessary. Unfortunately, the US maybe a little late because there is every possibility that the European Union may fall apart as Germany fails to see why it should bail out economic indiscipline in other countries in the Eurozone. If the US can go around bullying others can China be left behind? China has the impertinence to warn India against any business with Vietnam because it thinks that it has the economic and military power to overpower others. A nation of brutal, uncivilised barbarians it has disputes with everyone of its neighbors, who should combine to resist its snarling. Finally, some light relief. The young punk, Bilawal Bhutto literally got eggs on his face, in London. Shoes as well we hear. He has vowed to make Kashmir a part of Pakistan. How we do not know.  Talk maybe cheap, but many people are making huge money from cheap talk.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Mothers are girls too.

There is a lot of chest beating on the falling ratio of girls against boys at birth, in India. The statistics are cited as the number of girls for every 1000 boys at birth and the difference is cited as proof of killing of female fetuses. But is it so? All over the world there is a slight preponderance of boys over girls at birth, 107 boys to every 100 girls. This is nature's way of balancing the genders when they reach adulthood, because there is a higher mortality among boys because of the higher frequency of genetic diseases, such as hemophilia and muscular dystrophy. That being the case we should expect that there will be around 940 girls to every 1000 boys at birth. Applying this corrected ratio some states do indeed have appalling figures. Delhi has 873 girls for every 1000 boys at birth, Haryana has 845, Punjab has 854 and our Prime Minister's home state of Gujarat has 895. But other states have the expected ratio and some have better than the expected. States with the expected ratio are Bengal with 954 girls to 1000 boys at birth, Assam has 961, Jharkhand has 958 and Karnataka has 949. However, there are states which have much higher than the expected ratio. Chhattisgarh has 971 girls at birth compared to 1000 boys, Mizoram has 970, Arunachal has 972, Meghalaya has 967 and Kerala has 965. So what is happening in these states where the numbers of girls at birth are far higher than predicted? Why is there such a hue and cry about female feticide but no one seems worried about the smaller numbers of boys in certain states? This is surely a wonderful example of " lies, damned lies, and statistics ", combined with lazy journalism and political hysteria. States with poor ratios are already suffering as young men are unable find brides to marry so they will be forced to change their habits. What is much more dangerous is the practice of blaming the mother for giving birth to girls, and the torture that goes with it. This is so wrong because it should be so easy to stop. Mothers cannot chose the gender of their babies, only fathers can. This is because a woman has 46XX chromosomes and can only donate one X chromosome to each of her children. Men, on the other hand, are 46XY and, therefore, only the father has the ability to decide the gender of his offspring. If an X sperm fertilises the egg the baby will be a girl and if a Y sperm wins the race then a boy will be born. Surely, this simple fact should be taught to every child in school and broadcast over television and radio. Instead of doing what is correct the idiots have banned portable ultrasound machines. Protect the mothers, and girls will be protected.

Think big but take us with you.

The Prime Minister has urged BJP members of parliament, as well as those friendly to the BJP, to " think big, far and above politics." Perhaps the Prime Minister should have explained what " think big, far and above politics " actually means. Our innocent MPs may think that far above politics means using Air India as their private airline to fly free with family and friends. They have demanded that Air India officials should give up their normal duties to welcome them with folded hands and passengers who have booked their seats in advance should be thrown out to accommodate them. For them thinking big means to get their children into politics so that they can also avail of thinking high. Being a MP does not require any educational or professional training but the returns would make any US senator cry with envy. With so many big and high ' amenities ' it is but natural the poor fellows cannot calculate their assets. Of course, MPs are not the only ones with children who need to be protected. Previously too, journalists have been sentenced to jail for writing an article on children, which they said was based on truth. The trick is to deny indignantly and hang on even when a former Chief Justice tells you that you are wrong, Indians have a habit of believing that there can be no smoke without fire and you cannot punish what people believe but if a genuine mistake is made than any amount of apologies will not be able to control the explosion of righteous indignation. The government has been able to stop all subsidies on diesel because of the fall in the international price of oil but it should now adjust taxes so that the prices of petrol and diesel are the same, as in other countries. If the price of oil rises suddenly, because of conflict in the middle east, they will be able to cushion the blow by lowering taxes. Having everything paid for by the taxpayer means that politicians cannot comprehend the daily struggle to survive for ordinary Indians like us. A global index has ranked the quality of life for people over the age of 60 years in 90 countries. Norway and Sweden are at numbers one and two while India is somewhere between 61 and 70. The reason is very high inflation combined with negative real interest rates which erode savings so that 78% of Indians have insufficient earnings after retirement. In an effort to reduce food inflation the government is allowing field trials of genetically modified mustard and aubergines. This is a dangerous move if the seeds come embedded with ' terminator technology ', which will force farmers to buy seeds every year. If crops are destroyed by inclement weather one year they will be left bankrupt. Also there has never been human trials of BT proteins which could be toxic long term. Think big by all means but please ask us because we are down here.

Saturday, October 25, 2014

One hundred percent tolerance.

Newly married James, 27 years old, and Alex Gaskell, 24 years old, from Britain were found dead in their beds, with drugs strewn everywhere, in a hotel near the Taj Mahal in Agra. The Taj Mahal is an elaborate tomb after all. Both were teachers with first class degrees and had a future to look forward to. Some tweets from James Gaskell show how easy it is to get drugs in India. July 15," Xanax, Pregabalin and Mogadon. Long Island Tea, beers, curry - a winning combination. Not suitable for children." October 19," One prescription in India ( after you have told the doctor what to write ) will take you faaaaar....Codeine under the counter here. With Valium, Xanax, and Lyrica. Winning." Well, he lost out in the end. Along with his wife, who apparently did not like drugs. Laws are so strict in India that it is impossible to get morphine type drugs for terminal care of dying patients in pain, so that hospices do not exist in this country. Yet, addicts can procure any amount of drugs. When there are so many temptations provided by our laws you cannot blame people. In UP poor families are awarded Rs 30,000 if the breadwinner dies. So 118 applications were received where death certificates were forged. Under another scheme 44 girls applied for Rs 10,000 for getting married. Also fake. Meanwhile the government is said to be preparing to release names of all those with black money in Swiss banks. The newly elected government in Haryana is going to probe Mr Robert Vadra's land deals. We hope that this matter is settled conclusively and is not kept hanging as a political weapon. A Railway Board officer has been charged with taking bribes by the CBI. A search revealed Rs 1 million stuffed inside drainpipes. Flying Air India, our national airlines, is becoming dangerous, not just because 102 pilots have allowed their licenses to lapse, but, more alarmingly, because pilots are fighting each other inside cockpits over discrepancies in salaries while flying. While officers are busy fighting or filling their own pockets it is not surprising that enemies will also take advantage. While our newspapers are filled with indignation at every violation of our border by China they seem extremely tolerant of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis coming into our country in droves, to commit crimes. A gang of Pakistanis was arrested conning people out of millions of rupees and it was pure luck that 2 bombs exploded unexpectedly, killing 2 Bangladeshi terrorists, which has prevented a slaughter. 800 crude bombs were discovered in Birbhum Health Centre. Is it possible that the Trinamul government in Kolkata did not know? The Americans have a zero tolerance policy towards crime while we have maximum tolerance. God help us.

The old stuck record.

It was not a question of if, but when. Our Finance Minister could not resist any longer. He has called for lower interest rates just as his predecessor did regularly. " Real estate has been an important sector for growth," he confessed. True. But for what? The phenomenal rise in real estate prices in India has been because of an explosion of black money. If there are $460 million stashed abroad in tax havens then there are an estimated $1.4 trillion in black money hiding in real estate. Properties in the most expensive suburb in the US are selling for $1,100 per sq foot whereas a house on 800 sq yards of land in an extremely congested area of Delhi went for Rs 850 million in 2013, which works out at around $1500 a sq foot. According to a report from Credit Suisse India has 31.4 million middle class families with wealth between $10,000 to $100,000. According to NCAER India will have 53.3 million families with annual income between Rs 340,000 and Rs 1.7 million by 2016. How can anyone afford to buy any property with that kind of income? Builders regularly cheat customers by taking money before beginning a project and then delay construction with the connivance of banks. With politicians and civil servants needing to hide their illicit loot real estate attracts real villains. The reason why our inflation rate has fallen is because of a high base effect and also because the rupee has remained steady around 60 to the dollar. The dollar has been strengthening against almost every other currency in the world, which has led to a fall in commodity prices, especially oil. While Europe is trying to avoid recession growth rate in China is also falling, thus reducing the demand for commodities. Countries are deliberately weakening their currencies to stave off deflation while our retail inflation is still at 6.75%. There is no evidence that a low interest rate will encourage business fellows to borrow more to invest in India. Interest rates have been at zero in the UK, US, Japan and Europe but that has only seen a rise in stock market values and real estate prices but little in way of new investment. Rates are not predicted to go up in the medium term as inflation is forecast to remain muted. Anyway, interest payment of companies in India is only 2-3% of top line which is insignificant. Lower interest rates will punish savers while rewarding irresponsible borrowers. Savings rate will drop as people will again look to gold to protect their money. The Finance Minister should concentrate on lowering taxes, so that demand goes up, and bringing down real estate prices to wipe out black money. Otherwise the rupee will plummet to a more realistic value. That could be really traumatic.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Let's up the ante.

Indian boxer Sarita Devi has been suspended for refusing to accept the bronze medal at the Asian Games in Incheon, Korea in protest against blatant cheating by the judges who awarded the bout to a South Korean woman. In addition, 3 coaches and India's Chef de Mission at the games have also been suspended. This is a typical reaction by bullies - we will do what we want, however illegal or unethical it maybe, but if you dare to protest we will react with violence. All sports associations are extremely corrupt and the Indian ones are especially so. In India politicians and ex-government officials, who are rotten to the core, control all sports. Our wrestling delegation at the London Olympics had 3 wrestlers and 5 officials so that there was no place for a physiotherapist, absolutely vital for a contact sport like wrestling. That is why there is every possibility that they will grovel to AIBA and throw Sarita Devi to the wolves to get their own suspensions lifted. There have been allegations of corruption against the International Olympic Committee and the British have openly accused FIFA officials of accepting bribes from Qatar to award the 2022 Football World Cup to that country. Players spend everyday in training, have to stick to extremely rigorous diets and are forced to spend months away from families to earn money for the sports associations. They sacrifice the pleasures of normal life for years, for a chance at glory for themselves and the country they represent, and are treated as slaves. Apart from an occasional superstar, such as Sachin Tendulkar. Since they spend whole days in training and sports careers are short they should be paid handsomely, with lifetime medical insurance and pensions, so that they do not suffer penury once their careers end. The West Indies cricket players have been asking for higher match fees for ages, with little success it seems. They decided to cut short their tour to India and flew back to the West Indies. BCCI officials have been threatening all kinds of punishments for the West Indies players because apparently BCCI has suffered some financial loss. Sports has been reduced to money, controlled by greedy scoundrels, and players have been reduced to commodities. We cannot expect any justice for Ms Sarita Devi unless one of our billionaires takes personal interest. Show the video to judges of professional boxing or to famous commentators, such as Al Bernstein, and ask them to score the contest. If they award the bout unanimously to Sarita Devi file a criminal case of cheating against AIBA in Lausanne, Switzerland where it is based. AIBA will be powerless against an individual and the possibility of criminal guilt will concentrate minds wonderfully. Money is power. Show the crooks we will not be pushed around.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

We need a hybrid of isms.

Socialism with its Utopian ideals of equal distribution of wealth, a social net to help the weak and the marginalised and protection of workers against exploitation was very attractive for many but sadly it was never going to work. Discussions about equality was never going to make people equal. Physical strength can be countered by numerical strength but a billion people could not construct the first nuclear weapon. Oppenheimer could. The Soviet Union was a super power but could not win against the creative innovation of capitalism. A study has shown how strong trade unions in West Bengal have become almost irrelevant by killing off manufacturing in the state, encouraged by the communist party which ruled the state for 30 years. Share of total factory output of Bengal fell from 6.2% in 1990 to a mere 2.45% in 2012. Today contract workers, who are paid less than permanent ones, are 30% of the workforce compared to only 5% in 1995. " During the 1970s and the 1980s, the unions and their affiliates took the worker-management relation to the level of class struggle," said Satyabrata Ganguly, former Chairman of Exide. Power draws criminals, as shown by most unions being affiliated to political parties. Francois Hollande became president by promising more socialism but now has popularity rating of just 13% because his policies are destroying the economy of France. Even an oil economy, like Venezuela, has been bankrupted by the irresponsible socialist policies of Hugo Chavez so that it may have to default on its foreign debt, resulting in a calamitous fall in the value of its currency. It needs to sell its oil at $135 a barrel to pay for all the subsidies it guarantees its people but oil prices are falling. People are used to subsidies and so will rebel if they are stopped. Thus the death of socialism lies in its success. But so does capitalism. Capitalists quote Adam Smith who said," It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, the baker, that we can expect our dinner, but from regard to their own interest." Which means that competition ensures that unless you supply the best product you will go out of business. But does the market really keep everyone honest? The sub-prime crisis that almost resulted in a global meltdown proves that it does not. While banks were rescued with taxpayer money ordinary people lost their homes through foreclosure. Business fellows form cartels to jack up prices. Then there is crony capitalism, exemplified by the countless mining scams in India. Even today monetary policies by central banks are to protect stock markets while people suffer. Both systems have failed. Therefore, we need a hybrid. If managers get bonuses so must the workers. If the company goes bust managers must pay.

At least our regulators are pure as the ISI mark.

Subrata Roy, Chief of the Sahara group is still sitting in Tihar jail on a charge of contempt of court. Court cases in India are almost impossible to understand by mortals such as us. Seems that the Sahara group raised money from investors through debentures which was not liked by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Matters went to the Supreme Court which asked the Sebi to investigate. Instead the Sebi asked Sahara to refund money to all investors with interest at 15%. Subrata Roy claims that he has done so but Sebi and the Supreme Court do not believe him so he is still sitting in jail. Even though there has never been any complaint of default from any investor the Sebi believes that Rs 200 billion is still outstanding and has been advertising for claimants to come forward. Sadly for Sebi only around 4600 investors have claimed refunds for a grand total of Rs 100 million. Subrata Roy was rumored to be close to Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party but has strenuously denied that party money was being laundered through his companies. However, elections in UP were coming up and the Congress was in power at the center. Although we would never believe that our regulators are anything other than pure as driven snow we have seen how the CBI filed cases against Modi and Amit Shah, who were considered opponents, while finding nothing against Ms Mayawati, whose support was crucial for the Congress to stay in power. While the Sebi was working frantically on Sahara, before UP elections in 2012, it was almost completely paralysed when it came to a complaint filed by one Mr KK Sinha in 2008 against DLF Ltd, which is a huge construction firm in Delhi and Haryana. Mr Sinha had to go to court against the " deliberate inaction " by Sebi which defended its paralysis by saying that the plaintiff was not an investor in the securities market and since the subsidiary of DLF was unlisted it could not act. Exactly the opposite of what it did with Sahara. However, it could not be because Mr KP Singh, owner of DLF, has been a friend of the Gandhis for years, starting with Mr Rajiv Gandhi. It is not surprising that when Mr Robert Vadra wanted to dabble in real estate he would want Mr Singh as partner. At the time debts were mounting and DLF was resorting to creative accounting through subsidiary companies. When Mr Vadra's deals became common knowledge and the pressure started to mount the Sebi passed an order forbidding Mr KP Singh and DLF from selling shares in the market to raise money to pay off their debt. In a totally shameless act of sycophancy the outgoing Congress government in Haryana made Mr Vadra's deals legal. The new government has promised to investigate the deals. We hope that it has not made a deal with Congress already.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Ordinary people are the same everywhere.

Journalists have to eat and to do so they have to dish out words, not just any words but different from the next fellow, which is not easy. How many different ways can you say that the BJP victory in the state elections in Maharashtra is only because the opposition votes were divided, the lack of a simple majority shows that people do not really want the BJP, the BJP is winning by polarising people along communal lines, there is no Modi wave, Modi has raised expectations so he had better perform, or else, and the Congress is losing only because it is unable to tom-tom all that it has done for the country? Then there are the Clever Dickies. One fellow has tried to lampoon Modi's experience as a tea seller but he tried too hard to be funny and so fell flat. Another fellow opted for the ' None of the Above ' option because no one was worth voting for. With the economy in a sorry state, war in the middle east, an Ebola epidemic in west Africa and the global economy teetering on the edge he did not think that he should vote for an honest politician, an intelligent politician, capable of making decisions, or a politician who would put the country before family. One fellow has resorted to outright abuse about how Hindus, with their round faces, are so ugly. Perhaps he has a magic mirror which tells him how handsome he is everyday. One article has tried to analyse the reason for Modi's success and suggests that every party should get someone like him. Someone who has ideas, works very hard, not for personal gain but for the country, and is a master at getting his message across. But how do other parties get someone like Modi. One of the most important reasons why people trust him is because he does not favor his family and has no children to promote, unlike other politicians. Children of politicians are brought up in extreme luxury due to the endless free amenities given to politicians on taxpayer money. They may have obtained some degree paid for by their dads, usually have never tried for a productive career and have a sense of entitlement to high office, regardless of achievement. People reason that if Modi has no one to build statues to him when he is gone then he has to work hard to build his own legacy so that he can leave behind a strong and wealthy country. Ordinary people throughout the world want steady jobs with regular incomes, low inflation, low crime rates, good education for children, affordable healthcare and an adequate pension in old age. Abusing Modi or the BJP will not work because people reject the alternative of handouts, reservations and massive scams.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Right to survive is a basic human right.

An editorial spews fire and brimstone against racism in India, as usual blaming Hindus for the recent attacks on people from Africa and the north east of India. " Indians are some of the most racist people on earth, thanks to the caste system and its culture of which an aesthetic that valorises a fair complexion is an integral part. It comes naturally to Indians to practise vicious racism at home and still wax outraged when Indians abroad come up against racial discrimination." This is a wonderful example of hate speech, disguised in glib, pious and sanctimonious garbage. By bringing up caste, which exists only among Hindus, the author clearly blames Hindus for all discrimination in India. The reason why Obama was elected twice was only because 93% of blacks in the US voted for him, regardless of their political convictions or any outstanding imperative, only because he is black. However, you dare not accuse blacks of being racist because they will instantly bring up slavery, which was worse than any caste system ever practised. Immigration is a big problem in the US, the UK Independence Party is winning elections on a simple message of stopping immigration and pulling out of Europe and Marine LePen of the far right National Front will wipe the floor with President Francois Hollande, if elections were held today. These journalists should understand that their mindless abuse of Hindus will only make them more defensive and united, as the Congress has been discovering lately, as it is being thrashed in every election. What the author of this piece of drivel does not explain is why the attacks on people from the north east, who are fair, and why no such attack on people from Nepal who look very similar. Is it because these people and Africans are proselytising, which Hindus have every right to object to, because they are tolerant of all other religions and just want to be left alone to practise their faith as they have been doing for thousands of years? Enemies of India come in many guises and one fellow offers friendly advice to the BJP to become like the Congress. Apparently the Congress was a big tent offering refuge to every group. It was not. It was blatantly anti-Hindu, deliberately dividing them into little castes so as to win elections by throwing reservations as bribes. A quota for Jats did not work in parliamentary elections in Haryana in May and has not worked in the assembly elections either as the aggrieved non-Jats united to put Congress into third place. Congress General Secretary, Digvijay Singh blamed ' Hindu terrorists ' for killing Chief of Anti Terrorist Squad, Hemant Karkare, thus shielding Pakistanis, but is now backtracking. He is still insulting Hindus by calling them liars. Hindus only want to survive. Surely not too much to ask for?

Saturday, October 18, 2014

The secret of happiness.

A recent poll shows that 58% of American people think that the world is ' going to hell in a handbasket ' and 61% are not hopeful about the direction of the US, but 40% still approve of Obama's job rating even though 49% think that they are worse off now than when Obama was first elected. We in India are very much worse off than in 2004. Crime is up, a scam is discovered everyday, politicians make mockery of the law by developing fictitious ailments when serving life sentences for murder, citizens of the country arriving from the north east are being beaten up everyday, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are being allowed open entrance into the country to prepare bombs to kill us, and inflation and taxes have made us poor, while someone is willing to pay Rs 18 million for a painting by a politician. Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report 2014 says that 31.4 million households in India, comprising 160 million individuals, are considered middle class, with wealth between $10,000 to $100,000. The National Council of Applied Economic Research reckons that by 2016 53.3 million households, that is 267 million people, will be considered middle class with annual income between Rs 340,000 and Rs 1.7 million. After paying income tax a family consisting of 2 adults with 2 school-going children cannot possibly survive on an income of Rs 340,000 a year because prices have more than doubled in the last 5 years, with a plethora of new sales and service taxes enacted by the Congress. So, where is the wealth coming from. " As is common in the developing world, household wealth in India is heavily skewed towards property and other real assets, which make up 86% of estimated household assets," said the NCAER. Which has 3 implications. First, wealth in real estate is notional and cannot add to consumption unless it is sold, which is a one time acquisition of money which will gradually waste away unless the person has a high regular income, that can come only from higher education. Second, income from rent is completely non-productive, contributing to poverty of those who do not possess real estate. Third, and most important,the real estate sector is driven by black money and hence is very attractive for politicians, civil servants and assorted crooks of every description. That is why regulation of the sector is very lax allowing builders to blatantly game the system, leaving buyers and banks to pay for their misdeeds, unless a different political party comes to power. Construction standards are poor, waiting for millions to die if there is an earthquake. To be middle class is not just numbers. It is to be able to live with dignity without the fear of falling into penury in an emergency. Americans are at the top so they are terrified of sliding down while we are at the bottom so we hope to climb up. That is why we are so happy.

Do we want to live in interesting times?

When a Nobel Prize winner in economics says that former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan knew nothing about markets then we should believe him. We can reasonably extrapolate to the present and say that present Fed officials also do not understand markets, as the debate about whether to continue the Fed bond buying program, which is due to end this month, shows. Stock markets all over the world are fluctuating wildly from day to day but experts say that a correction was due anyway because markets have more than doubled since 2009. A fall in the price of shares results in a fall in the market capitalization of companies and reduces their ability to borrow and may result in financial loss to investors if they are forced to sell but what is really spooking experts is the fall in inflation, fall in the price of oil and the fall in long term bond yields, predicting a prolonged slowdown in global economic growth. Europe could go into recession as its largest economy, Germany predicts falling growth. The fall in growth combined with an increase in investment, such as in shale, has resulted in a precipitous fall in the price of oil. Apparently Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have refused to cut supplies, to support crude prices, because they want to hurt the US shale oil industry but the price will have to drop to around $50 per barrel to make shale oil production a losing proposition. Of course, such a severe drop in the price of crude will hurt other oil producers, such as Iran and Russia, who are enemies of the US. The earnings of the Islamic State, from captured oil fields in Syria and Iraq, will fall. It is difficult to know who is trying to stab whom. Marked fall in commodity prices should be a bonanza to a manufacturing economy like China, increasing earnings and consumer spending but here too inflation is down to 5 year low, forcing the government to cut borrowing costs. This may again encourage excessive borrowing to invest in real estate, leading to a property price bubble and a jump in bad loans at the banks. So, what about India where the Reserve Bank has been battling to control inflation, without much success so far? Here too both the Wholesale Price Index and the Consumer Price Index have fallen in September but a large part of that is due to a high base effect and to the RBI keeping the rupee stable against the dollar, which means that it has become stronger against other currencies. That will hurt our exports and increase imports. Now is the time for the government to stop all subsidies, cut expenditure and link handouts to not having children so as to reduce the population. Interesting times are coming. Are we ready for them?

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Robots will make everything. So what will humans do?

Just as our Prime Minister has launched a " Make in India " campaign to stimulate manufacturing inside the country, so as to create lots of jobs, Dani Rodrik, Professor of Social Science at the Institute of Advanced Study at Princeton, USA has written an article in which he says," Manufacturing today is not what it used to be. It has become much more capital- and skill-intensive, with greatly diminished potential to absorb large amounts of labor from the countryside." China has become the manufacturing center of the world by being able to produce consumer goods cheaper than anyone else. " And one downside of China's success is that many other countries are finding it much harder to establish more than a niche in manufacturing," writes the prof. Maybe that is why governments of countries such as Japan and Korea are concentrating on developing robotics which will be the cheapest way to manufacture. Robots work 24/7, do not demand wages, do not go on strike and produce the same precise quality every time. " As a consequence, developing countries are starting to de-industrialize and become much more dependent on services at much lower levels of income than has been the pattern for developed countries - a phenomenon that I have called premature de-industrialization," he writes. Banking, finance, insurance and information technology are high paying and can assist in growth but they employ a small number of highly trained people. That is why the IT sector in India has not been a primary driver of growth. Further," In today's developing countries, the bulk of excess labor is absorbed in non-tradable services operating at very low levels of productivity, in activities such as retail trade and housework." Precisely what has happened in India since 2004, where most new jobs were in housework, restaurants and in construction. While China is extolled for its manufacturing people tend to forget that it has been at the cost of an excess of construction, massive debt, severe pollution and brutal land grabbing. At some point the Chinese will be forced to restructure. As sales slow China is relaxing mortgage and borrowing costs to stimulate the housing market again but how long it can continue to go on building as the population begins to fall, because of birth restrictions, no one knows. Lastly," Partial productivity gains in non-tradable activities are ultimately self-limiting, because individual service activities cannot expand without turning their terms of trade against themselves - pushing down their own prices ( and profitability )." Which means that unskilled people have to compete with each other for jobs and so have no strength to bargain for higher wages. The only solution is to reduce supply - that is to shrink the population. But will politicians want to reduce their vote-bank?

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Between a rock and the deep blue sea.

Why do our journalists keep trying to mislead us? Are they being paid to do so? God knows that there are untold trillions of black money floating around so a friendly handshake should not be a problem. Whenever the inflation rate falls there is an outcry in the press for lower interest rates, apparently because cheaper borrowing costs are good for business. But is it that simple? True, the Wholesale Price Index came in at 2.38% in September, compared to 3.74% in August, the lowest in 59 months. Retail inflation also fell to 6.46% in September, compared to 7.73% in August. Which is good news. But we have to remember that prices have been rising at near 10% since 2008, which means that prices of consumer goods, especially food, have doubled. The press never explains that 10% of Rs 100 is Rs 10 but 6.46% of Rs 200 is nearly Rs 13. This is known as the base effect, so a lower rate does not necessarily mean good news for us. So should the RBI start lowering interest rates? The Trade Deficit jumped to $14.2 billion. Exports grew by 2.73% to $28.9 billion because of the weakness of the global economy but imports jumped 26% to $43.15 billion. Compared to $682.5 million last September gold imports rose to $3.75 billion this year. This despite high duties and restrictions on the import of gold. Already banks are reducing rates of interest paid on term deposits so if the RBI cuts rates savers will suffer even more. To hedge against inflation people will buy even more gold even if prices continue to fall. Foreign investors have been buying into Indian bonds, both government and corporate, because yields on 10-year US treasuries fell to 1.873% before settling at 2.091%, which gives a nice arbitrage opportunity for investors. The influx of dollars makes the rupee strong so the RBI has been buying dollars to keep the exchange rate stable. The dollar has risen against all major currencies so a strong rupee makes Indian exports more expensive and that maybe one reason why exports have fallen. On the other hand banks are flush with rupees and so cut interest paid to depositors which would encourage people to buy gold. To reduce the supply of money the RBI sells government bonds. This is a delicate act but the strong rupee has lulled business fellows from hedging their foreign debt. In the past too Indian companies have defaulted on foreign loans but they do not learn. Already they are sitting on a mountain of debt and they are taking on even more. Finally, real estate in India is probably more expensive than in the US so there could be an almighty crash unless demand goes up. Who would want to be in RBI Governor, Raghuram Rajan's shoes?

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

The police are human, just like us.

So, another policeman killed. Who cares? Certainly not our politicians. There will be lots of hand-wringing, promises of support for the police, stern warning for criminals and some taxpayer money for families but nothing will change. The reason is that politicians will never allow an effective police force because most politicians are criminals. If one third of the MPs are criminals then 90% of ministers in Telengana have criminal charges against them. What better way to stay out of prison than to become a minister and control the police. Police forces are controlled by state governments which are never going to obey Supreme Court orders for police reforms to get them free from political interference. There is nothing the court can do. It can not possibly arrest all chief ministers for contempt, dissolve all the governments and institute president's rule in every state. The police are human, with feelings same as us. They must feel helpless when they see a child being molested, as Ruchika Girhotra was, but then they are told to torture her brother with endless false cases, forcing her to commit suicide. They are patriotic citizens of this country but are asked to destroy evidence of Bangladeshi terrorists constructing bombs. They must be covered with shame when they see the rapist son of a police chief become a fugitive from justice but cannot find who was helping him with money. They must feel it is futile to do their jobs when they are punished for catching criminals. If forensic evidence indicates that Sunanda Pushkar, wife of Congress politician, Shashi Tharoor, was poisoned and we do not have the means to analyse rare chemicals surely specimens maybe sent abroad for analysis. To be absolutely sure specimens should be sent to 2 or 3 different labs so that there is no debate. Instead the doctors at AIIMS are being mocked by the press for refusing to accept a natural cause for her death. They know they are being used as stooges when asked to file endless false charges against a politician only for political gain. They must be utterly frustrated when murderers are able to get out of prison on flimsy excuses and criminals are given bail or let out on parole at the beginning of their sentences, instead of at the end for good behavior as in other countries. They are not allowed to handcuff criminals but are punished when they escape. At present the police, at least in Delhi, are used to guard politicians, stop traffic for VIPs and raise money for the government by towing away vehicles. Which country in the world extorts money from motorists by demanding pollution check every 3 months? A frustrated and angry police is no good for us. Sadly, politicians are not going to improve their lives. 

Too clever by half?

We were wrong. We thought that supplying arms to the Kurds in Iraq and Syria will result in a war between the Turks and the Kurds at a future date. In fact Turkey is enjoying the slaughter of Kurds in Kobani, with tourists gathering on a hilltop overlooking the town to watch the fun. This is exactly what the Israelis did when their air force was pulverising Gaza. Not much different in levels of inhumanity but what is really different is that while Jewish Israel was fighting Muslim Hamas here all the players are Muslims. Not just that, the Turks, Kurds and Islamic State fighters are all Sunni. Turkey is not only sitting on the sidelines, it is stopping Kurdish fighters from crossing the border to help their kin in Kobani. The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an extremely corrupt and authoritarian fellow, said," For us, the PKK ( Kurds ) is the same as ISIL ( same as IS and ISIS ). It is wrong to consider them as different from each other." He fought with Israel quite unnecessarily in 2010 by encouraging a Turkish ship to try and break the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Like all thugs Erdogan thinks he is too clever. He thinks that he can use the IS to destroy the PKK, use the US to destroy the Alawi regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria by imposing a no-fly zone and weaken the Shia led government in Iraq by buying oil from Kurds in the north of Iraq in violation of Iraqi sovereignty. However, Erdogan is not the only one with delusions of cleverness. The Saudis are encouraging a fall in the price of crude apparently to stop development of shale oil in US and Canada, which becomes uneconomic when prices fall below $80 a barrel. We do not know whether the gasbag, Obama, who struts around as commander-in-chief, is party to this. The shale oil industry may suffer a bit but cheap oil will be good for the US economy. This will cause incredible pain to other oil producing nations. The Russian economy is already suffering due to sanctions, forcing Putin to negotiate a $400 billion gas deal with China. This is highly advantageous to China, making it a more dangerous adversary for the US. The fall in the earning from oil exports may deter Russia from cutting gas supplies to western Europe this coming winter in retaliation for sanctions. Venezuela may default on its foreign debt with the danger of great social unrest. Now Iraq has followed Saudi Arabia in reducing the price of its oil. All this uncertainty is pushing the dollar up against all currencies so the gains from cheap oil will be lost due to the strong dollar. Among all these clever clogs the Islamic State has a simple belief in its ultimate victory. Trouble is that ordinary people like us, with no delusions of grandeur, will suffer the fallout of all this cleverness. God help us.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Rising prices to protect bonuses of just a few.

Prices in Britain have fallen for 17 months running so that deflation rose to 1.8% in September compared to 1.6% in August. The Consumer Price Index was at 2%, the same as in July 2007, but the Shop Price Index was at -1.8%, compared to +0.5% in July 2007. Compared to September last year, prices of clothing and footwear fell by 10.2%, electrical goods fell 5.9%, furniture and flooring fell 2.2% and DIY, gardening and hardware fell 2.2%. Even books and stationery fell by 1.1%. This when the economy is set to grow by 3.2%, which is a high rate for a developed economy, and unemployment is set to drop from 6.2% to 5.8%, compared to the rest of Europe where growth is flat and unemployment is around 11.2%. In India the picture is totally opposite. Here growth rate is expected to be 5.6% this fiscal, better than the 4.7% last year, but not even close to the 7.6% expected growth rate of China, and yet the CPI is expected to be 7.2% in September, down just a smidgen from 7.8% in August. The Consumer Goods Index fell by 6.9% compared to last year and is down 2.3% in August compared to August 2009, which means that there has been a sharp fall in demand. Surely that should lead to a fall in prices, as happens in other countries, but prices continue to rise at over 7%. Why? Globally, food prices are at 4 year lows, oil prices have fallen by at least $20 a barrel and commodity prices are down overall. Our government has been cutting the subsidy on diesel in small increments so that the price now reflects international levels. The increase in the price of fuel would certainly add to cost but surely not so much that CPI is rising by 7.2%, despite falling demand. This is a fantastic opportunity to cut taxes on petrol so that diesel and petrol cost the same, and then deregulate both. If international prices rise suddenly price of fuel, and its effect on inflation, can easily be moderated by cutting taxes rather than by subsidising one at the cost of the other. According to the World Bank poverty level has fallen from 41.6% in 2005 to 23.6% in 2012 but if poverty is defined as spending Rs 32 per day in rural areas and Rs 47 per day in urban areas it is not likely to add to demand for consumer goods because, with food prices rising at near 10%, all the income is likely to be spent on food. Low demand may be due to the fact that 64% of urban women choose not to work. High inflation means that 78% of retired people suffer poverty because their savings have been eroded. The only explanation for rising retail prices despite falling commodity prices with falling demand is that companies are deliberately raising prices so as to protect their profit margins and bonuses of senior executives. Greedy scoundrels.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Children are our future.

Congratulations to Mr Kailash Satyarthi for being awarded this year's Nobel Peace Prize, along with Malala Yousafzai. His Bachpan Bachao Andolan, or Save the Childhood Movement, has apparently helped 83,000 children in 144 countries. While the other Nobel Prizes in Chemistry, Physics, Medicine, Economics and Literature, awarded in Sweden, are for excellence in their respective fields the Peace Prize, awarded in Norway, is purely political, as the statement by the Nobel Committee shows. It says," The Nobel Committee regards it as an important point for a Hindu and a Muslim, an Indian and a Pakistani, to join in a common struggle for education and against extremism." This when the Pakistani army has been firing at civilians across the Kashmir border for no reason whatsoever, provoking the Indian army to respond with force. While not exactly a rogue's gallery the Peace Prize has been awarded to pretty unsavoury characters in the past. There was Henry Kissinger in 1973, whose quest for ' peace with honor ' resulted in a massive increase in bombing of Vietnam, killing unknown thousands, and whose foreign policy was founded on support for dictators. He supported Pakistan against India during the Bangladesh war of independence in 1971. An unscrupulous villain who would have done the Nazis proud. There were Mohamed Al-Sadat and Menachem Begin in 1978. Sadat started the Yom Kippur war against Israel and Begin was a leader of the Irgun gang. Begin, as Prime Minister, invaded Lebanon in 1982 resulting in the massacre of hundreds of Palestinians in Sabra and Shatila refugee camps. Yasser Arafat got it in 1993. As Chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation he was responsible for the massacre of 11 Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics and the hijacking of a Sabena Airlines plane in 1972, which has resulted in stringent security measures at airports, making flying an extremely unpleasant experience. Finally and shockingly, Barack Obama was awarded the Prize in 2009 and went on to become the biggest serial killer of all time, using drones to slaughter innocent civilians. A weak gasbag, he wants to prove his manhood by killing people who are unable to defend themselves against him. He has unnecessarily created a crisis in Ukraine by allowing a CIA sponsored armed uprising by extreme right-wing nationalist Svoboda and neo-Nazi, anti- Semitic Right Sector groups against an elected president, leading to civil war in which civilians are dying. We thank Mr Satyarthi for his sterling work in empowering children but we think that the only way the suffering of children can be ended is by stopping childbirth. 

Friday, October 10, 2014

Poor politicians. Life is getting tough for them.

Ms Jayalalithaa, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, who has been sentenced to 4 years in prison and a fine of Rs 1 billion for corruption, was denied bail by the Karnataka High Court but Om Prakash Chautala, former Chief Minister of Haryana, who is serving a 10 year prison sentence for corruption, was granted bail for ' medical reasons ' by the Delhi High Court and is merrily campaigning for the coming elections. If we judge by the length of sentences then Chautala's crimes would be more than double those of Ms Jayalalithaa and yet he is freely cocking a snook at the courts. Will the court punish him severely by adding another 2 years to his sentence for perjury and Contempt of Court, which happens to be the most heinous crime in India as Subrata Roy has been finding out. For some reason the Securities and Exchange Board of India forbade Sahara group of companies from raising money from the public through debentures although there has never been any complaint from investors. When Sahara went ahead anyway it was ordered to refund all the money to investors, which Sahara claims it has done. SEBI and the Supreme Court do not believe what Roy says so he has been sitting in jail for the last 6 months, while SEBI asked investors to put in their claim for refund. Only 4,600 investors have asked for refund for a total of just Rs 100 million, which proves that Roy has been telling the truth all along. So will he be offered an unconditional apology and compensation for being hounded for so long. We doubt it. Sukh Ram, who was caught red handed, was repeatedly rewarded with bail and Ramalinga Raju, who confessed to looting Satyam, is still out on bail. Meanwhile the Hon'ble Supreme Court has suddenly realised that its order in 2002, banning all mining in the Aravali hills in Haryana has been ignored and widespread illegal mining has been going on with civil servants looking the other way, no doubt for handsome handshakes. The order did not ban mining in neighboring Rajasthan so the crooks just strayed across into Haryana. The Court wants to know the names of the civil servants who connived. What is the use? Does the Court think that it was done without politicians being involved? After all what is the point in entering politics if you cannot become rich. The Congress government in Haryana has been working overtime to legalise Mr Vadra's dealings in real estate. But pesky people are asking embarrassing question under the Right to Information law, which naturally have to be denied. Time was when the aam aadmi knew his place but now they want answers. Life is getting tough for poor politicians. We understand.

Thursday, October 09, 2014

We Indians should be terrified.

Seems that the Environment Minister has sanctioned Rs 100,000 for a man killed by a white tiger at Delhi zoo in September. Why? The man climbed over a fence and then on to a wall surrounding the tiger's enclosure. Whether he jumped down or slipped and fell we do not know, but it does not matter. He had no business climbing the barriers and, shockingly, no one thought of stopping him. By all accounts the tiger stood staring at the fellow for over 15 minutes and then, enraged by the crowd shouting and throwing sticks and stones, it mauled the man to death. The tiger seemed puzzled by the sudden appearance of a human inside its enclosure. It has probably spent all its life in captivity and clearly does not know how to hunt because it did not go straight for the man's throat as a wild tiger would do. So, here we have a man who deliberately climbs into a tiger's enclosure, a stupid crowd which instigates the tiger, instead of stopping the man, and a big cat which does not how to hunt. Why is the minister paying compensation to the family, from taxpayer money, when the tiger is the only innocent being in the whole sorry incident? Because the man is from the so called ' minority ' community? How are we, the taxpayers, responsible for his idiocy? It is the same old bribery of ' minorities ' that the Congress is so famous for. But if the politicians in Delhi generously hand out buckets of cash to ' minorities ' the West Bengal government actively allows Bangladeshis to pour into India and protects terrorists producing bombs. It was extreme luck that a bomb exploded killing 2 of the villains or else we can only imagine what carnage they would have wrought on us. The Bengal police heroes were held off by 2 women, also ' minority ', who claimed to have guns, while they tried to destroy all evidence. The police then destroyed more evidence presumably to erase links to jihadi elements. Instead of urgently investigating the case and coming down hard on terrorists, as any patriot would be expected to do, the Trinamul Congress is using every stratagem to keep the National Investigation Agency away from the investigation. Why? India is one country and what happens in Bengal endangers all of us so we have right to answers. Does the Trinamul want to hand West Bengal to Bangladesh? Perhaps the Hindus living in Bengal do not know what will happen to them if Bangladeshis become the majority. Perhaps they should ask Taslima Nasrin, a Bangladeshi woman, why she is hiding in India. Perhaps they should see what messages Ms Nasrin receives from her ' minority ' friends. The jihadis are succeeding because our politicians are helping them. Terrifying.

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

It is not over as yet.

Industrial production in Germany, the largest economy in the Eurozone shrank by 4% from July to August. On the other hand the British economy is set to grow by 3.2% this year and the US posted strong growth in the second quarter. The jobless rate in the US fell to 5.9%, leading to a rise in 10 year bond yields, in expectation of a rise in interest rates next year. At the moment the 2 Anglo-Saxon countries are crowing about the superiority of their loose monetary policies, including their bond-buying programs, over the tight austerity imposed over Europe by Germany but the issue has not been settled as yet. We are not told as to what happened to the excess money that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England poured into the market. Has the money gone into productive investment resulting in paid employment or has it gone into non-productive assets such as stocks and real estate? Stock markets have reached record levels globally, as also in India. Property prices in the UK have reached record levels and prices in the US are beginning to cool off a bit after rising fast in the last 2 years. Just as the politicians of India keep on whining about high interest rates so an MP in Britain has warned about ' a catastrophe ' for families if interest rates were to rise. If the record prices of shares and real estate are a sign of economic recovery why then are discount stores in Britain cutting prices to attract customers? Why are there so many poor people who cannot even afford to shop at discount stores? Could it be because of stringent cuts in social security payments by the Conservative government while it has poured billions of pounds of taxpayer money to save banks from bankruptcy which is allowing bankers to pay themselves huge bonuses once again? Lazy Indian journalists, sitting in their air-conditioned offices, pontificate about how corruption in India is endemic because the people themselves are so corrupt that they knowingly vote for corrupt politicians for narrow gains and are prepared to bribe officials to get their own work done at the expense of others. The reason is that life is a struggle for survival for the vast majority of Indians. In western countries the peace of knowing that you will not starve because of the social security net makes people more honest, but that maybe changing as these payments are cut. Also people are able to spend more by saving less which increases demand and stimulates growth. However one thing leads to another. The dollar is becoming stronger which will make US exports more expensive and increase imports, thus worsening the balance of payments. If Russia refuses to supply gas to Ukraine this winter it may turn off gas to Europe. We do not know what is going to happen because politicians are equally ignorant.

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

In India property is worth killing for.

Fellow wants his father to sell off ancestral property but his father refuses so he bashes his father's head in. Another fellow stabs his mother-in-law to death, stabs his brothers-in-law and his wife after quarreling with his paralysed father-in-law over property. A property dealer was shot in his abdomen in East Delhi by a fellow wearing a helmet, who escaped on a motorbike. All this happened within the last couple of days. In a shameless act of sycophancy the Congress government in Haryana has legalized the sale of a piece of land by Mr Robert Vadra, son-in-law of Ms Sonia Gandhi, to DLF for Rs 580 million. The sale was deemed illegal by IAS officer, Ashok Khemka because it was agricultural land and could not be used for any other purpose under the Land Consolidation and Holding Act. A Public Interest Litigation, alleging that Mr Vadra used his family connections to change the land-use clause, was rejected by the Delhi High Court. Haryana is to hold assembly elections on 15 October. To avoid the election code Mr Nikhil Kumar was made to resign 7 months prematurely by the Congress and Ms Sheil Dixit appointed within hours, allegedly to protect her from the Commonwealth Games scam investigation. Isn't it wonderful that Mr Vadra's deals are deemed legal but the Campa Cola Compound residents lost their homes because the courts, including the Hon'ble Supreme Court, found them in violation of the law. The real violators, the builder and municipality officials have gone free. The reason for all these crimes is that property prices have rocketed in recent years as trillions looted from various scams have found their way into the real estate sector, although the decline in the growth rate of the economy has halted the runaway rise in prices. However, as the economy picks up there are new predictions of greater investment in real estates, which means rising prices again. But isn't it good if property prices keep rising? After all, property is the most expensive investment in anyone's life so if prices keep rising infinitely it will create ever more wealthy people. Trouble is that it creates massive inequality as those who own real estate become ever richer while those who have to live in rented accommodation become ever poorer, as rents keep rising in tandem. As prices rise to levels seen in the US at some point reality will kick in and the rupee will dive to compensate. As the rupee falls so inflation will rise on the back of expensive imports, especially oil. Maybe that is what is worrying the RBI which has so far refused to reduce interest rates. Even business fellows, who were howling for lower rates just a few months back, maybe seeing sense. Mr Modi cannot control corruption unless real estate prices fall. The RBI is helping.