Tuesday, May 19, 2020

2008 was a fall, 2020 is deep coma.

"The government kept the lessons of the 2008-13 period in mind when designing its Rs 20 lakh crore stimulus package, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told ET, explaining why it had avoided spending recklessly to revive the economy." In 2008, there was no lockdown of the entire nation bringing economic activities to a near halt. In 2008, millions of daily-wage laborers were not forced to walk hundreds of miles back to there villages, driven by fear of starvation. In 2008, retail inflation was high and rising, while this time, "The real danger is that of a prolonged deflation rather than inflation," said Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog Rajiv Kumar. Not a single car was sold in April. India's biggest car company Maruti Suzuki reported zero sales. In 2008, all international and domestic flights did not come to a halt for two months. In 2008, the unemployment rate did not rise to 24% and back then over 20 million white collar workers did not lose their jobs. And, in 2008, the economy was still growing but this time Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% contraction in the second quarter and a contraction of 5% in the real GDP in the financial year 2020-21. The two situations are completely different and not comparable at all. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a stimulus package for the economy worth Rs 20 trillion on 12 May. "Alas, the package is a sedative to ease the pain, not a stimulus that will revive a crashing economy," wrote SA Aiyar. "Yet, the package might just go down in history as a turning point in economic reform," because the "dramatic embrace of privatisation is unambiguous and stunning". "In the case of the covid economic package, ironically the government has displayed, kept the medium to long term in view and has used the crisis to usher in some long-pending and much needed reforms, instead of focusing too hard on short-term palliatives," appreciated VA Anantha Nageswaran. "In the context of immediate support to the economy, the government has conserved some firepower, just in case the pandemic does not go away in six months or so." "In the US, the unemployment benefits announced in the wake of the pandemic are seen to be incentivizing the jobless to stay jobless." If the idea is to starve people back to work, then it is certainly revolting. "Factories and other establishments in some states may be allowed to cut salaries and initiate disciplinary action against workers who don't want to report back to work within a stipulated period once the Covid-19 lockdown is lifted." The Uttar Pradesh (UP) government has withdrawn a cruel order to force industrial workers to work 12 hour shifts in the middle of a blistering summer. The meager economic stimulus is a political move by Modi, said Aiyar. "At best, you could say it is a very cold calculation that if I take a bigger hit this year, I will have a bigger bounce next year and then there is no political damage because there are no elections to be lost." By next year the economy maybe dead. 2008 was a fall, 2020 is deep coma.    

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