If it is not a natural disaster what is it?

"The country's economy, which is likely to contract by 5 percent in the current fiscal, may expand by around 5 percent in the next financial year, former RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao said". "The reason I say that is because this (Covid-19) is not a natural disaster. Our factories are still standing, our infrastructure and transport systems are still there." "Once the lockdown is lifted and the economy is given a green signal to restart, I am sure that we can ramp up pretty soon and reach at least 5 percent growth rate." One could argue that the coronavirus, being a living organism, is a natural disaster. And, our factories maybe standing but millions of workers have fled to their villages and the Reserve Bank (RBI) says that the economy will shrink this year, with consequent "collapse in demand since March 2020 across both urban and rural segments". The reconstruction of infrastructure destroyed due to World War II has been credited with reviving economies and making Europe the $18.8 trillion economy that it is today. Goldman Sachs predicted that the Indian economy will contract by 5-7% in this financial year so a 5% growth next year, as Subbarao predicts, will be purely base effect, the net result being zero. Actually, it would still be negative. If we started with a GDP of 100, a 5% fall will take it to 95, but a 5% rise on 95 will take it 99.75, and not back up to 100. "India has seen four instances of contraction in GDP since 1951-52," wrote Roshan Kishore, but, what is different this time, is that, "It is the non-farm sector which will see a contraction, while agriculture is likely to grow." "Even when GDP growth was positive, there was a significant section reporting a decline in incomes in the RBI survey." So the loss of over 120 million jobs because of the lockdown will surely result in a precipitous fall in incomes.  Household savings declined from 23.6% in 2011-12 to 18.2% in 2018-19, and is expected to fall sharply as people spend their savings to pay for essentials. "Analysis of income tax data shows that the top 5% tax payers paid almost 90% of income tax in AY 2018-19 (financial year 2017-18)," so if these people earn less, tax collections will fall. Because of the huge rise in taxes on fuel, prices are expected to rise by Rs 5 soon, as oil companies seek to make up their losses. "The Indian government's response to the economic and humanitarian crisis has been manifestly behind the curve, even though it was presciently early in enforcing a total lockdown," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. The GDP growth number for the quarter ending 31 March will be released today and is expected to be around 3.76%, although how they will calculate this figure, when travel restrictions started in early March and they could not give us the inflation data for April, is not known. How can we respond if we cannot see the disaster?