Sailors and spices.

On 29 January, "Indian Navy's INS Sumitra has successfully rescued fishermen hijacked by pirates along the East Coast of Somalia," as "The naval warship was responding to a distress message regarding hijacking of an Iranian-flagged Fishing Vessel (FV) Iman." HT. The Indian Navy has rescued Iranian sailors several times in recent months. So, how has Iran thanked India? On 13 April, "Commandos from Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard rappelled down from a helicopter onto an Israeli-affiliated container ship mostly manned by Indians near the Strait of Hormuz and seized the vessel." HL. Only one of the Indians "Ann Tessa Joseph - the Indian sailor who crewed on MSC Aries, the ship seized by Iran" has been released so far. NDTV. The other 16 are still being held by Iran but "The Indian mission was given consular access to the Indians by Iranian authorities." DH. Are we expected to bend over in gratitude? We are helping Iran in other ways as well. The US slapped sanctions on three Indian companies, Zen Shipping, Port India Private Limited and Sea Art Ship Management, for helping Iran's military entity Sahara Thunder's commercial activities, including supplying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to Russia. DH. Meanwhile, in the Maldives, whose border is only 446 km or 277 miles from India's border (distance calculator), "President Mohamed Muizzu's party has won a landslide victory in a parliamentary election, cementing his grip on power." BBC. In an interview, Muizzu "acknowledged India's significant role in providing aid to the Maldives and said India has implemented the 'greatest number' of projects. He urged New Delhi to consider providing debt relief to the archipelago nation, which owed approximately USD 400.9 million to India." HT. So, what do we get for $400 million US? Muizzu "set a deadline on Sunday of March 15 for its giant neighbor to withdraw all its troops" from Maldives. "The deadline was set shortly after...Muizzu returned from a state visit to China." Reuters. Misfortune never comes alone, is an old saying. "Recently a report published on the official website of Hong Kong's food regulatory authority - Center for Food Safety (CFS) on April 5th mentioned that three spice products in India have cancer-causing chemicals that contain a pesticide known as ethylene oxide." TOI. On 8 April, The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) increased the permissible level by ten times, from 0.01 mg per kg to 0.1 mg per kg, for pesticides not registered with the Central Insecticides Board and Registration Committee (CIBRC). Telegraph. Surely it is the duty of regulators to check and limit the level of poisons in our food? Fortunately, foreign countries were quick to flag the danger. Will the regulators apologize? As is usual, FSSAI ignored all questions. The US has effectively imprisoned 22 Indian sailors since 26 March while they investigate a collision between their ship Dali with a bridge in Baltimore. TOI. India means Indians. And Indians have no value.       

The largest diaspora.

Mr Narendra Modi was elected prime minister in 2014 (wikipedia), with 22 references to "reform" in the poll manifesto. But, "Gone are the days when Modi pledged to change everything from inefficient markets in labor and farm produce to entire sectors like banking." "Still, this is the start of a new compact between markets and Modi, one in which investors are betting on what he won't do, rather than what he will." "India is struggling to afford even the soap and detergent that Unilever Plc has been selling them since 1888." "Purchasing power is limited to a tiny affluent class. But markets have nothing to worry" because, "the economy is getting Modi-fied," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Not all Indians are celebrating, though. The NITI Aayog's Multidimensional Report states that the poverty rate in Karnataka is 7%, and it is less than 1% in Kerala. On the other hand, that in Uttar Pradesh it is 22%." Because, "The southern states have contained population growth, and it has even declined in some cases." The taxes paid by southern states go to the north and  delimitation of seats in parliament, based on population, will further reduce representation of southern states, wrote Margaret Alva. "In an open letter, a group of India-based foreign correspondents have strongly protested the treatment meted out to Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reporter Avani Dias, who left India last week saying the government had made it too difficult for her to work here any longer." The Wire. Who cares. "The foreign media is no longer the subject of adulation and deification." "The belief that the picture of India being presented to the West is akin to what Mahatma Gandhi once described as a 'sanitary inspector's report' is now widespread with Indians," wrote Swapan Dasgupta. Could this be a case of "sour grapes" (Collins) perhaps? "According to a  Ministry of External Affairs report, there are 13.6 million Non-Resident Indians (NRIs), 18.68 million Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs), and nearly 32.3 million Overseas Citizens of India (OCIs) residing outside India, and overseas Indians comprise the world's largest diaspora. Every year 2.5 million Indians migrate overseas, which is the highest annual number of migrants in the world." MC. "The International Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IIDEA), an inter-governmental organisation, measures the quality of 'representation'," and according to this, India's score has fallen from 71% to 60%, and India has slipped from 50th to 66th rank. Authentic because, "India is one of the member states of IIDEA and is represented on the governing council by none other than Sunil Arora, the former Chief Election Commissioner of India appointed by the present government," wrote Yogendra Yadav. Hoist by our own petard (wikipedia), as it were. Foreigners may be "sanitary inspectors" for Dasgupta, but a lot of us Indians refer scornfully to our media as "Godi Media" (puppets sitting on the lap of government). Not wise to be too aggressive. Remember "From 2020 onward, the US imposed sanctions and visa restrictions against several Chinese government officials and companies." wikipedia. If they can do it to the Chinese they can surely do it to Indians. That will stop foreign junkets and coming back with suitcases full of single malt whiskeys and expensive perfumes. Dasgupta will not be popular. At all.

Holistic growth.

"Investment banking firm Morgan Stanley citing strong domestic demand kept a positive forecast on India's growth. It expects India's GDP growth to reach 6.8% in the ongoing fiscal year 2024-25 and 6.5% in 2025-26." TOI. High demand means higher tax collections on sales. "Gross goods and services tax (GST) revenue for March 2024 witnessed the second highest collection ever at Rs 1.78 lakh crore (Rs 1.78 trillion), with an 11.5% year-on-year growth. The surge was driven by a significant rise in GST collection from domestic transactions at 17.6%," the Finance Ministry said. BT. If people are buying so much more they must be earning more as well. And, if you earn more you pay more income tax. So, "Gross direct tax revenue rose by an annualised 18.48% to Rs 23.37 trillion in the year ended March, with about 17.70% increase in net revenue to Rs 19.58 trillion, mainly due to robust collections from individual taxpayers, the Finance Ministry reported." Gross corporate income tax (CIT) came in at Rs 11.32 trillion and net CIT was Rs 9.11 trillion, while gross personal income tax (PIT) was Rs 12.01 trillion and the net PIT was Rs 10.44 trillion. HT. The people are making more money, the government is raking in taxes, it's win-win all the way. On the other hand, "India's household debt has reached a record high of 39.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, according to an analysis by Motilal Oswal." "While it is being suggested that higher leveraging is due to home loans, it's actually non-housing debt that is increasing at a faster pace. Non-housing debt comprises 72% of the total household debt." "Unsecured bank loans by banks have been growing, with ICICI Bank leading the pack." "India has expressed its concerns to the International Labor Organization (ILO) regarding its recent report on employment," which "claimed that India's youth accounted for nearly 83% of the unemployed workforce." TOI. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), "Between 2017 and 2022, the overall labor participation rate dropped from 46% to 40%," with about 21 million women disappearing from the workforce, so that "more than half of the 900 million Indians of legal working age - more than the population of the US and Russia combined - don't want a job." ET. "Despite the usual hype surrounding the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) placement season, this year has presented significant challenges for graduates seeking high paying jobs." "The challenge is particularly acute at IIT Delhi, where approximately 40% of 1,814 students registered with the Office of Career Services (OCS) have yet to secure employment as of early April." ET. High paying jobs are not coming. "FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows have begun reversing from developing to advanced countries." "FDI in China declined by a whopping $135 billion in January-September 2023. FDI into India also declined severely by $22.86 billion to $19.75 (by -54%)." DH. If IIT graduates are settling for peanuts, others will have to take Prime Minister Narendra Modi's advice of selling pakodas (a savory snack) at the roadside (wikipedia) literally. GDP is growing, consumer demand is growing, tax collections are growing and youth unemployment is growing. That must be holistic growth.

Please protect the Ganga.

"India is not seen as measuring up to the high standards of liberal Western democracies." "The West's rhetoric of 'democratic backsliding' in India is hypocritical." During the ongoing general elections "a flurry of articles has appeared in Western mainstream media and journals associated with think tanks which regurgitate all the old arguments about...curbing of freedom of speech, constraints on the independence of the judiciary, controls over institutions." wrote Kanwal Sibal. Freedom of speech - "India had the longest internet shutdown in 2023 in terms of user hours." "In total, the internet was completely affected for 7,956 hours in India, impacting 59.1 million users." "Between 2012 and 2022, the country witnessed 683 internet shutdowns - the highest in the world." And, "shutdowns by law enforcement agencies like the one in Manipur and Punjab cost the Indian economy $1.9 billion in the first half of 2023." ET. Censorship is expensive. For us. The Judiciary - "February 26 marks a year since Aam Aadmi Party leader Manish Sisodia's arrest in the excise policy case," "with the courts denying him bail on multiple occasions." India Today. Why he has to be in prison while agencies go on a fishing expedition to try and find any hint of evidence is a mystery. There is no suggestion of violence and, as Deputy Chief Minister of Delhi, there is absolutely no possibility of him fleeing the country. In contrast, Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim, convicted of murder and rape, has been released on parole 7 times in the past 24 months. He was seen cutting a birthday cake with a sword. NDTV. "If the law supposes that," said Mr Bumble, squeezing his hat emphatically in both hands, "the law is a ass - a idiot." Charles Dickens. Institutions - A law passed in December 2023, just 4 months before the general election, changed the composition of the committee to appoint the Chief Election Commissioner and the two Election Commissioners (EC). While the previous committee consisted of "the prime minister, the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, or the leader of the largest opposition party in the House and the Chief Justice of India," the new committee consists of "the prime minister, the Union cabinet minister, and leader of the opposition". Mint. As biased as it can get. Proof of bias - "Prime Minister Narendra Modi struck a controversial note during his election campaign...when he alleged that if Congress comes to power it will implement its manifesto that promises equitable distribution of wealth and alleged this will mean taking away even the Mangal Sutra of women and giving their gold to Muslims. He described Muslims as 'illegal immigrants' who produce many children." ET. Communal hate speech. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath claimed that the Congress manifesto "has expressed its intention to implement 'Sharia Law' in the country and redistribute people's property." Absolutely untrue. Yet, not a peep from the EC. Perhaps, Mr Modi and Mr Adityanath could visit the holy city of Haridwar which has seen a huge influx of Muslims who have built thousands of shacks along the River Ganga. Why have they been allowed to enter India illegally when the Border Security Force (BSF) is under control of the Ministry of Home Affairs of the Government of India? mha.gov.in. Why blame the Congress when Mr Modi's government is allowing Muslims to enter unchecked? At least protect the Ganga. It is holy.       

Exports at all costs.

"President Joe Biden's trillion dollar effort to invigorate American manufacturing and speed a transition to cleaner energy sources is colliding with a surge of cheap exports from China, threatening to wipe out the investments and jobs that are central to Biden's economic agenda. Americans are not alone in their complaints about China's new tide of exports. European leaders have raised similar concerns." ET. In March, "US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen slammed China's use of subsidies to give its manufacturers in key new industries a competitive advantage, at the cost of distorting the global economy, and said she plans to press China on the issue." ET. Yet, "China's exports contracted sharply in March while imports unexpectedly shrank, undershooting forecasts by big margins," as "Exports from China slumped 7.5% year-on-year last month by value." Reuters. And, "Production at US factories increased solidly in March," as "Manufacturing output rose 0.5% last month after an upwardly revised 1.2% rebound in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said." Reuters. Clearly, China is thwarting Biden's vision of Aatmanirbhar US. On the other hand, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision for an Aatmanirbhar Bharat, or self-reliant India, resonates as a strategic imperative for the nation's prosperity and security." HT. "A sharp contraction in Chinese exports for March in dollar terms despite growth in volumes and data showing producer prices extending a year-and-a-half-long decline have tempered hopes that China is on its way to finding sustained post-pandemic growth." Reuters. Over capacity in factories is depressing prices which other countries cannot compete with. Adding to over-production in China, Chinese manufacturers are setting up factories in Mexico. "The reclining armchairs and plush leather sofas coming off the production line at Man Wah's Furniture factory in Monterrey are 100% 'Made in Mexico'." "But the company is from China, its Mexican manufacturing plant built with Chinese capital." BBC. "US President Joe Biden has called for a tripling of tariffs on some steel and aluminium from China." "As well as the tariffs, the White House said it would launch an investigation into unfair trade practices in the Chinese shipbuilding and logistics sectors." BBC. Youth unemployment is becoming a problem in China. Unable to find work as a photographer, Litsky Li, 21, "now spends her days grocery shopping for her family in the central city of Luoyang, and caring for her grandmother, who has dementia. Her parents pay her a salary of 6,000 yuan ($835) a month, which is considered a solid middle-class wage in her area." CNN. Xi Jinping must be feeling paranoid. "In a slick video marking the National Security Education Day, China's top spy agency has a stern message for Chinese people: foreign spies are everywhere." CNN. Not just manufacturing exports, China seeks to destroy the West by exporting drugs. "According to a report published by the US select committee on the Chinese Communist Party, the Chinese government provides subsidies to companies openly trafficking illicit synthetic drugs." BBC. If companies leave China, factories within the mainland will have to shut down. That can only increase unemployment. They cannot arrest the entire population. At some point the government will collapse. Great for India. 

The Fed isn't joking.

"Global finance chiefs convening in Washington for the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings are sweating the strength of the US economy, as elevated interest rates and a strong dollar force other currencies lower and complicate plans to bring down borrowing costs. Meanwhile, an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is raising concerns of a wider regional war that could send oil prices over $100 a barrel." ET. "Consumer price index (CPI) inflation does not have to touch the Reserve Bank of India's  (RBI) 4% target, but sustainably move towards that mark for interest rates to be lowered, Ashima Goyal, external member of the central bank's monetary policy committee MPC told ET." Contrast Ms Goyal's dismissive attitude towards high prices with "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned...that persistently elevated inflation will likely delay any Fed interest rate cuts until later this year, opening the door to a period of higher-for-longer rates." AP. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%. Why? "The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) judges that inflation rate of 2% over the longer run,...is most consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate for maximum employment and price stability. When households and businesses can reasonably expect inflation to remain low and stable, they are able to make sound decisions regarding saving, borrowing, and investment, which contributes to a well-functioning economy." Federal Reserve. The RBI has been set a more relaxed target of 4% inflation rate by the government (ET), but even that is taken humorously. "The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest," said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Hilarious. But perhaps not so funny for the 813.5 million people who receive free food grains for five years "to strengthen accessibility, affordability and availability of food grains for the poor and vulnerable". pib.gov.in. High prices hit the "poor and vulnerable" while helping the government by increasing tax collections. Thus, the goods and services tax (GST) collections in March 2024 was Rs 1.78 trillion, a jump of 11.5% over March 2023. BT. "India's overall exports reached a record $776.68 billion in the financial year ended March 31," slightly higher than $776.40 billion last year. "Merchandise exports fell to $437.06 billion in FY24, while services exports grew by 4.4% to a record $339.62 billion." HT. Higher prices are not good for exports. Mexico exported $475 billion worth of goods to the US alone in 2023, 5% more than in 2022. PBS.org. While the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is "struggling with a slump in consumption" because of poor agricultural yields (TOI), young people wanting to move to cities like Bengaluru, Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad and Gurugram cannot afford to do so because "there has been a 4-9% jump in housing rent in just the first three months of 2024." "This signifies a four-fold surge in house rent in just a year in several cities." India Today. The Fed wants to keep interest rates higher-for-longer while the MPC wants to reduce rates regardless of inflation. That will just devalue the rupee against the dollar. And further increase prices of imports. The RBI may joke about elephants. The Fed doesn't joke.

Free of opposition.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday, April 11, asserted that there is a strong government at the Centre and under 'this strong Modi government', terrorists are being hit hard at their homes."HT. When asked about PM Modi's statement, US State Person spokesperson Matthew Miller said, "US does not discuss sanctions openly." "But we do encourage both India and Pakistan to avoid escalation and find a resolution through dialogue." NDTV. A research paper by think tank Chatham House notes that, "Western governments' concerns over the direction of India's democracy have so far been secondary to those about China's one-party state. But an erosion of India's democratic credentials would have implications for how the country is perceived globally, and may prompt the West to review the nature and limits of its cooperation with India." TOI. Mr Modi came to power by winning the 2014 general elections (wikipedia) by linking the Congress Party with every corruption in India and promising a "Congress mukt Bharat" (India free of the Congress) (narendramodi.in). After being in power for 10 years his desire has morphed into an opposition-free India. So, "If opposition leaders strongly defend their political turf, they find the Enforcement Directorate at their doorstep, they are arrested and forced to resign like former Jharkhand CM (chief minister) Hemant Soren, Or face relentless ED summons, like Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal does, If an opposition party is dominant in a state, like the Trinamool Congress in Bengal, it could be denied access to central funds. If the Opposition rules through a rickety coalition, it is vulnerable to 'Operation Lotus' and is in perpetual danger of being destabilized, like in Bihar and Maharashtra, or lose an election even when they have a majority, like in the Chandigarh mayoral poll," wrote Sagarika Ghosh. To stop him from campaigning for the impending elections, "India's financial crime agency arrested Arvind Kejriwal, the Chief minister of Delhi...in connection with graft allegations relating to the city's liquor policy." Reuters. Kejriwal suffers from Type 2 diabetes and is being denied insulin injections in prison, alleged his party, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). DH. A report from the Director General (Prisons) states that Kejriwal does not need insulin according to doctors who examined him. The Hindu. A patient's requirement for insulin is not determined by examining him, but by the best control of blood sugar, absence of side effects and the ease of use by the patient. By making officials of the government and officers of central agencies complicit in the repression of opposition parties Mr Modi has ensured that there are hundreds of officials in position of power who will have to answer for their actions if Mr Modi loses the elections. Adolf Eichmann was executed by Israel (wikipedia) and Josef Mengele managed to avoid a similar fate by disguising himself and hiding in South America (wikipedia). There are many who have a stake in Mr Modi's victory so he may win. However, if there are any doubts about the authenticity of the results, Mr Modi's reception in foreign capitals may turn cold. Even icy.         

Tears of happiness.

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned...that persistently elevated inflation will likely delay any Fed interest rate cuts until later this year, opening the door to a period of higher-for-longer rates." "In the past several weeks, government data has shown that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target and the economy is still growing robustly." PBS. "Financial stress has become a significant part of life in this decade, with 70% of Americans saying they feel 'very or somewhat stressed' about their personal finances right now." "Of those earning less than $50,000, which includes Americans at poverty level, 55% report more financial stress than pre-pandemic." And even, "46% of households making $100,000 a year or more report feeling stressed." yahoo. Why" Because, "In the 12 months through March, the CPI increased 3.5%, the most since September." Reuters. In India, "Annual retail inflation in March was 4.85%, lower than 5.09% in February," and "Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, rose 8.2% in March, compared with an 8.66% rise in February." Reuters. In India, "Spending on food fell to 46% of monthly consumption for rural consumers from nearly 53% in 2011-12, while in urban areas it fell to 39% from 43%." Reuters. Whereas, "Americans are spending more of their income on food than they have in 30 years. That's according to the latest data from the USDA, which shows that US consumers spent more than 11% of their disposable income on eating - whether at home or at a restaurant - in 2022." CPI inflation is expected to decline to 2.4% this year. yahoo. Americans spend only 11% of their income on food and they are feeling distressed, while Indians spend over four times as much on food and food prices went up 8.2% in March. Are Indians in any distress? Nope. "Summarily dismissing India's 126th rank in the World Happiness Index and accusing the report of 'overlooking persistent issues prevailing in many better ranked nations', a report by SBI Ecowrap stated that India should have in fact been ranked 48." TOI. In its kindness, the SBI (State Bank of India) has pushed the US up to 2nd position from 15th in the report. Happiness depends on social relations, "which in India are much broadened and altruistic than any other country in the world". Indians can socially hold hands and sing "O jaanewaale babu ek paisa de de" (O passing sir please spare us a penny)", while 35.5% of children, who are stunted due to malnutrition (TOI), can dance with happiness. Brings tears to our eyes.    

Good news or headache?

"Consumer prices in the US rose faster than expected last month," as "Prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months to March, up from 3.2% in February, the US Labor Department said. Higher costs for fuel, housing, dining out and clothing drove the increase." BBC. "US retail sales increased more than expected in March amid a surge in receipts at online retailers," prompting "economists at Goldman Sachs to boost their gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate for the first quarter to a 3.1% annualized rate from a 2.5% pace. The economy grew at 3.4% rate in the fourth quarter." Reuters. "Production at US factories increased solidly in March as output at motor vehicle assembly plants and elsewhere rose," so that, "Manufacturing output rose 0.5% last month after an upwardly revised 1.2% rebound in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said." Reuters. "Employers in the US added more than 300,000 jobs last month - the biggest gain in almost a year," as "The jobless rate fell to 3.8%, as most sectors, including health care, construction and the government added roles, the Labor Department said." BBC. "The first definition of full employment would be the situation where everyone willing to work at the going wage rate is able to get a job." "Generally, an unemployment rate of 3% or less would be considered to be full employment." Economics Help. Another definition of full employment would be a Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU, which "is the level of unemployment below which the rate of inflation is expected to rise." According to these definitions the US has almost achieved full employment with tolerable inflation, though still higher than the 2% target, thus leading to higher sales which, in turn, has led to higher manufacturing and more jobs. This is the classical virtuous cycle. Dictionary. In December 2023, "Even in the face of rising prices and inflation, consumer spending has kept the US afloat, staving off a recession. That spending, in turn, is fueling the retail industry and feeding a virtuous cycle that benefits both global and local economies alike." Politico. Consequently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that "monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer and further dashing investors' hopes for meaningful reductions in borrowing costs this year." Reuters. "Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit five month highs," as "The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 13.5 basis points at 4.634%." ET. "The dollar went up 1.6% against a basket of six major currencies last week after a small but unnerving upside surprise in US inflation cast doubt over bets on US rate cuts." ET. Higher yields might tempt foreign investors to shift funds from Indian bonds to US Treasuries and a strong dollar means higher costs of imports putting upward pressure on prices in India. Hence, "Interest rate cuts in India are 'off the table' in fiscal year 2024/25 given the change in the Federal Reserve's policy path and strong growth in the South Asian nation, analysts at Morgan Stanley said." Reuters. Good news for the US. Could cause headache for India.

A gold alert.

"After a relatively subdued start to the year, gold prices started gathering steam in early March. By April, the precious metal had breached the $2,300 per ounce mark for the first time ever," and "as of 9 April, gold had made fresh life-time highs for eight straight sessions," wrote Abhishek Mukherjee. "Goldman Sachs has raised its gold forecast to $2,700 per ounce by year-end as against a target of $2,300 previously," driven by "EM Central Bank accumulation as well as Asian retail buying." Mint. "Gold traditionally has an inverse relationship with stocks." But in FY24, "the Nifty 50 index logged to the tune of 30% rise whereas the BSE Sensex shot up 27% this time." The small-cap index jumped nearly 62% while the mid-cap index sky-rocketed nearly 65% in FY24. Returns on gold were nearly 13.5%. Mint. "Gold experts say gold and equities moving in conjunction is a central bank triggered phenomenon." In 2022-23, "central bank purchases stood at 1081 tonnes and 1037 tonnes respectively," The People's Bank of China (PBoC) bought 225 tonnes in 2023, taking its gold reserves to 2,257 tonnes. The PBC's hunger for gold is driven by its desire for de-dollarization. In January-February 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bought "0.43 million troy ounces, equivalent to 13.3 tonnes of gold, from the market. This represents over 80% of the total gold purchases made by the central bank in 2023, which amounted to 0.52 million troy ounces." TOI. The RBI's total gold reserves stand at 817 tonnes which "reflect a strategy aimed at diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and mitigating risks associated with currency fluctuations and economic uncertainties." ET. Why are central banks buying gold? What are they hedging against? Previously, gold hit lifetime highs in - "1970s (after the 'Nixon shock' ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold); 2008 (global financial crisis); 2011 (European debt crisis) and 2020 (covid-19 outbreak)." Is another financial crisis in the offing? Not certain, but if there is one, markets will plunge and millions of retail investors in India will get badly hurt. There were nearly 161 million registered investors in the BSE and 79.2 million investors in the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) in mutual funds. ET. "Unlike most financial assets, driven at their core by currencies whose supplies can be, and are, continuously increased through a couple of keystrokes on central bank computers, supply of gold in limited and constrained." "There is a small, if fanatical, group of 'experts' and financiers united by their deep distrust of modern central banking." Cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile, so "As an alternative to fiat currencies, that leaves gold - stable, trusted, liquid and non-fiat," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. A married woman in India can possess only 500 gm of gold ornaments, which are not of 100% gold (Kotak Life), but the government buys bullion in tonnes with our money and without any explanation. Luring people into gambling in stocks and increasing the number of dollar billionaires from 169 to 200 (ET). Gold is yellow. Perhaps it indicates a yellow alert. Will it turn red? We don't know.  

The difference.

"Now that the quid pro quo in India's opaque electoral funding has been exposed, electronic voting machines are the next port of call for judicial scrutiny. And rightly so." "Western democracies, having flirted with technology, have mostly decided against surrendering the act of recording a citizen's most profound electoral choice entirely to machines. In 2009, Germany's constitutional court declared computer-aided voting unconstitutional for failing to meet standards of public scrutiny." In February, "India's Supreme Court ...scrapped a seven-year-old election funding system that allows individuals and companies to make unlimited and anonymous donations to political parties, calling it 'unconstitutional'." Reuters. These were the infamous 'Electoral Bonds'. Total value of Electoral Bonds sold amounted to Rs 165.18 billion of which the BJP received Rs 82.518 billion, more than the combined amount received by the Congress in second place with Rs 19.52 billion and the TMC in third place with Rs 17.05 billion. The Wire. "A modest overhaul of a controversial surveillance program foundered in the House of Representatives...after Democratic and Republican critics, including Donald Trump, said it gave the government too much power." Reuters. In India, on the other hand, "The state has used almost every opportunity to appropriate superior rights under the pretext of national security or economic imperatives." "The Indian citizen's individual rights are enshrined in the Constitution, especially in Articles 19 and 21." But, "Clauses permitting preventive detention constitute a glaring contravention of basic democratic rights and civil liberties that has been carried forward from a colonial regime to a modern day republic," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. "What is worse? Police flouting all mandatory procedures while arresting and gathering evidence, or the government lawyer, an officer of the court, asking judges to overlook this conduct?" "The police is the repressive arm of the state. That's how it was conceived of when the British ruled over us," and "No government is going to let go of its most potent weapon against the people," wrote Jyoti Punwani. "Apple Inc has warned its users in  India and 91 other countries that they were possible victims of a 'mercenary spyware attack' dropping the word 'state sponsored' it used in its previous alerts," "after it repeatedly faced pressure from the Indian government on linking such breaches to state actor." Reuters. To shut any critics abroad, "An organisation targeting critics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was set up and is being run by an officer of India's top spy agency, the Washington Post has claimed." Dawn. The US Constitution guarantees freedom of speech, right of property and freedom from unreasonable arrest. wikipedia. Indians have virtually no rights. The US is rich and strong. We have 813.5 million people receiving free food grains. pib.gov.in. An imprisoned people will always be impoverished. That is fundamental to being human.  

A humanitarian conflict.

"Iran has launched dozens of aerial drones and missiles at Israel, marking a widely anticipated reprisal attack." "It is the first such direct clash between the two enemies," and "The Israeli military said Israel and other countries had intercepted dozens of cruise missiles and drones, mostly outside Israeli airspace." BBC. "The US has shot down Iranian drones headed to Israel after Iran launched its retaliatory attack." "Other nations including France and Canada, have also condemned Iran and expressed support for Israel." BBC. On 1 April, "Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Syria," following which, "Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement that seven Iranian military advisers died in the strike including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in its Quds Force, which is an elite foreign espionage and paramilitary arm." Reuters. "Airspace closures through the Middle East grounded and diverted flights on Saturday (yesterday) as Iran launched drones towards Israel." Israel, Jordan and Iraq closed their airspace. "It was not clear when flights would resume." NBC. Iran's attack should be a big respite for Israel, even if temporary. On 25 March, 14 of the 15-member UN Security Council voted a resolution, with the US abstaining, calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, (UN) which would have given Hamas a golden opportunity to get a fresh supply of weapons from Iran. France went even further. "France's foreign minister said...that pressure, and possibly sanctions, must be imposed on Israel to open crossings to get humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza." The Times of Israel. How would they have stopped Hamas fighters from keeping the greater share for themselves? "Yemen's Houthi rebels launched multiple drones at Israel in coordination with Iran, security firm Ambrey says, adding that the projectiles were likely timed to reach Israel simultaneously." TToI. Five days back, "The US Central Command said on X its forces had destroyed an air defense system with two missiles ready to launch, a ground control station in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and one unmanned aerial system launched by the Houthis from Yemen over the Red Sea." Reuters. Clearly, the US action is inadequate and ineffective. Two days ago, "Dozens of Russian military instructors have arrived in Niger as part of a new agreement with the country's junta, which has cut links with the West. State media reported that they arrived along with a state-of-the-art air defence system." BBC. Just four days back, "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's approach to the war in Gaza is a 'mistake', US President Joe Biden said in an interview." Reuters. Biden does not understand that Israel cannot run away in total disarray as the US forces did from Afghanistan under Biden's watch. BBC. Israel understands what woke Americans don't: Islamists kill for pleasure. No human being should be capable of what Hamas did to ordinary Israelis on 7 October 2023. AP. Iran, Russia and China versus the West. No time to be woke.   

What will happen, will happen.

"The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in India rose 5.7% in February as against 3.8% in January, revealed the data provided by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)." ET. "The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to a 16-year high of 59.1 in March, from 56.9 in February." "India's manufacturing output rose for the 33rd consecutive month in the final month as growth quickened across consumer, intermediate and investment goods sector." ET. "India's dominant services industry grew faster in March amid strong demand, according to a private business survey that also showed employment increased at the fastest rate in seven months and export business expanded at a record pace. The final HSBC India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 61.2 last month from February's 60.6." Reuters. "Gross GST collection in March 2024 jumped 11.5% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 1.78 lakh crore (Rs 1.78 trillion). Total gross collection for FY24 stood at Rs 20.18 lakh crore, surpassing the revised budget estimate, compared to Rs 18.10 lakh crore in the previous financial year, showed official data." BT. Since the goods and services tax (GST) is based on consumption this would seem to indicate a booming consumer demand. But, since GST is a percentage of the price of goods and services, it might also indicate rising prices. However, consumer price index (CPI) inflation is coming down. "India's retail inflation eased to 4.85% in March as against 5.09% in the previous month." "The inflation in the food basket was at 8.52% in March, down from 8.66% in February." ET. This 4.85% rise is on top of a 5.7% rise in March 2023, 7.0% rise in 2022, 5.5% rise in 2021 and a 5.8% rise in March 2020. RI. India's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.98 billion to an all-time high of $648.56 billion as of April 5, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). ET. If consumer demand is strong, both manufacturing and services sectors are growing strongly, CPI inflation is coming down and our forex reserves are at record level, why is the rupee getting weaker? The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar is at a record low of 83.61 this morning. xe.com. It ended the day at 83.4250 against the dollar on 22 March (Reuters) and fell to 83.46 against 1 dollar on 3 April (Forbes). Probably because, "Consumer prices in the US rose faster than expected last month," as "Prices rose 3.5% over the 12 months to March, up from 3.2% in February, the US Labor Department said." BBC. The price of oil has crept up, with Brent crude quoting at $90.45 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. US markets fell as hopes of a rate cut in June were dashed by the high inflation number. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 475.84 points or 1.24%, the S&P 500 fell 1.46% and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.62% yesterday. CNBC. Rising oil prices with a stronger dollar could raise the price of fuel in India which will feed into inflation by increasing transport costs. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza are still raging. Que sera, sera, what will be, will be. dictionary. Let's enjoy the present.

Illeism is the clue to the future.

"Today, there is a strong Modi government, hence terrorists are killed in their turf," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi while campaigning in Uttarakhand. ET. Mr Modi was using 'Illeism', "which is the act of referring to oneself in the third person instead of first person." "Deepanjana Pal of Firstpost noted that speaking in the third person 'is a classic technique used by generations of Bollywood scriptwriters to establish a character's aristocracy, power and gravitas'." wikipedia. Earlier, "Defence Minister Rajnath Singh...said if needed, India will enter and strike, while responding to a media report that said the Indian government was allegedly behind the killings of almost 20 individuals in Pakistan that the intelligence officials deemed a threat to the nation's security." ET. When asked about the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar by Indian agents, PM Justin Trudeau said, "The killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is something we all should take extremely seriously." ET. India rejected Canada's allegations as "absurd and motivated". Mint. Unfortunately, dozens of Indians have paid an enormous price because of India's bellicosity. "Canada has recently decreased the number of Indian staff members in its diplomatic missions across India due to a shortage of Canadian personnel necessary for the effective management of in-country operations. This move comes in response to India's expulsion of 41 Canadian diplomats last year." ET. On the other hand, "An intelligence operative has been removed from his position and several others were reshuffled following an investigation into US claims of an alleged plot to kill Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." "The investigation concluded 'rogue operatives not authorized by the government had been involved in the plot'." HT. So, ridicule Canada, threaten Pakistan to show how tough you are, claim to kill terrorists "in their turf", which could mean in other countries, while humbly trying to pacify the US with a quick 'investigation' and transfer of officials. A classic case of having your cake and trying to eat it  (wikipedia). To create an illusion of a fair election the BJP "has sent invites to political parties of 25 countries around the world". "Political parties of around 15 countries have confirmed the participation," including "Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Mauritius among others." ET. The BJP may co-opt parties of other nations but many Indians are fearful. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharman's husband, economist Dr Parakala Prabhakar asserted that "these elections encapsulate 'Modi-BJP versus Indian citizens',"  "Modi government is 'not democratic at all' and if Mr Modi wins this election "this would be the last election of the country. The map of India and the Constitution will be completely changed." DH. "The 675-mile-long mountain range that cuts through central India is no longer just a geographical divide." States to the south reject Mr Modi while his control of the impoverished north may win him the election, wrote Andy Mukherjee. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar send 120 MPs to the Lok Sabha while the 5 southern states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telengana send a total of 129. wikipedia. If Mr Modi wins he will increase seats of the northern states through delimitation to give permanent control to the BJP. The South may want to secede. Will Mr Modi use the army against the South? Will the Indian army shoot Indian citizens? We can only wait..

Think carbon tax, not cars.

"US power consumption will rise to record highs in 2024 and 2025, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said." Reuters. "Electricity production in United States reached 379,799 GWh in Jan 2024," compared with 129.449 GWh in Mar 2024 in India. CEIC. In India, fossil fuels contribute 56.8%, coal's share being 49.1%, of our total installed capacity of electricity production, renewable energy sources provide 41.4% and nuclear production contributes 1.6%. Ministry of Power. Fossil fuels produce greenhouse gases, which are causing climate change, and pollution in our cities, causing illnesses and premature deaths. With a 7% share in greenhouse gas production, India comes fourth in the world behind China with 30%, the US with 15% and the EU with 9%. epa.gov. The good news is that, "India's greenhouse emissions rate dropped by a faster-than-expected 33% in 14 years as renewable energy generation rose and forest cover increased," which "should help India avert pressure by developed nations to stop using coal." Reuters. "In 1990, Finland was the world's first country to introduce a carbon tax. Since then, 20 European countries have implemented carbon taxes, ranging from less than 1 euro per metric ton of carbon emissions in Ukraine to more than 100 euros in Sweden, Liechtenstein, and Sweden. Tax Foundation. "On October 1, the EU kicked off the initial phase of a Europe-wide tax on carbon on imported goods." This is to protect European industries from cheaper goods from other countries but, "Europe's experiment could have ripple effects across the entire globe, pushing high-emitting industries to clean up their production and incentivizing other countries to launch their own carbon taxes." The Wire. India has the extra problem of having the largest population in the world at 1.44 billion people (Worldometer) packed into a relatively small area. "The world's most populous nation is more poorly endowed with farmland per capita than Greece or Algeria. That is going to make life harder as a fast warming planet destabilizes the cycles of rain and sunshine that have kept the Indian subcontinent fed for millenia," wrote David Fickling. "Of the 30 most polluted cities in the world, 21 were in India in 2019." "51% of the pollution is caused by industrial pollution, 27% by vehicles, 17% by crop burning and 5% by other sources." wikipedia. Biomass burning and industrial activities contribute 82% of PM2.5 emissions in India. Vehicles contribute only 7%, slightly higher in cities, wrote Chandra Bhushan. Biomass is used by the poor so politicians have shifted the blame solely on cars. The government wants at least 30% of cars to be electric by 2030. ABP. However, batteries comprise half the cost of electric cars (ET) and will have to be replaced every 5 years or so. No one will buy a second hand electric vehicle because the battery will have been used. Since China produces 80% of electric car batteries so our money will be transferred to China. iea. Indians will be losers. Again.

Denominator is below the line.

"The better-than-expected Dec quarter GDP numbers unveiled last month have acted as a booster for the Sensex and Nifty to new heights." "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has indicated that the economy is expected to grow 8% or more in the Jan-Mar quarter driven by improved inflation management and overall macroeconomic stability." TOI. "In April 2015, India had just over 2 crore (20 million) individual demat (dematerialised) accounts (HDFC) - the actual number of investors would have been even less as one person can hold multiple accounts. As of Feb 2024, the tally has grown over seven times to nearly 15 crore (150 million)." "Retail investors, including high networth individuals, account for 91% of the Indian fund industry's nearly Rs 22-lakh-crore (Rs 22 trillion) equity assets under management." TOI. "Motilal Oswal's (MOSL) latest India strategy report suggests that India's capital markets are on the cusp of embracing a golden era, termed as Amritkaal." "According to analysts at MOSL, India is currently experiencing a 'mini-Goldilocks moment', characterized by favorable economic conditions where the economy isn't overheated with high inflation nor sluggish." Mint. Depends on how people look at figures. Foreigners seem to be a bit nervous about Amritkaal. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs)  withdrew Rs 325 crore from Indian equities in the first week of April and exhibited cautious behavior amidst the relatively high valuations and the upcoming general elections." ABP. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor can draw solace from a 5.09% CPI (consumer price index) inflation (when food inflation is still at 8.38%) and characterise the same as retreat of inflation elephant to forest." "Composite CPI, which measures consumer inflation for food and non-food, had a reading of 139.6 in January 2019. The composite CPI increased to 185.5 in January 2024. In five years, consumer inflation increased by 32.88% - that's by 6.58% every year," wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. "The value of the rupee against the US dollar has decreased from nearly 60 to around 83.31 over the last decade. This represents a decline of 27.8% over a ten-year period, which is less than 3% fall on an annualized basis." TOI. But the graph in the report shows the rupee at 58.78 on 16 May 2014, when the present government came to power, and at 83.19 on 9 April 2024, which is a fall of 41.53% or 4.153% per year. In a deliberate attempt to mislead readers, TOI has calculated the percentage with 83.31 as the denominator and not with 58.78 as they should have done. But even with 83.73 as denominator the percentage fall comes to 29.44%, and not 27.88%. Either TOI is acting as a mouthpiece for the government or it needs to buy new calculators. Amrit and Goldilocks are both myths. So, it seems, is the analysis. 

Internal matters.

"The US government recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as part of India and 'strongly opposes' any unilateral attempts to advance territorial claims in the northeastern Indian state that shares a border with China, the US State Department said." Reuters. India did not object to this as an "internal matter" but, "After India summoned a senior US diplomat to lodge a protest over remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Washington ...stressed that it encourages fair, transparent, timely legal processes and 'we don't think anyone should object to that'." ET. Earlier India had protested against the German Foreign Ministry saying, "We assume and expect that the standards relating to the independence of Judiciary and basic democratic principles will also be applied to this case." To that the Ministry of External Affairs fumed that it was a "blatant interference in India's internal matters". NDTV. "India is the world's oldest democracy; it is the mother of democracy." Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Why the "mother of democracy" should object to expectations of "basic democratic principles" by Germany and why repression of any opposition is to be condoned because it is an "internal matter" is not clear. "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi often draws crowds of supporters from the Indian diaspora on his foreign visits. But back home, his administration has been revoking visas and residency permits of foreign nationals of Indian origin as well as spouses of Indian citizens." yahoo. In November 2023, "The US Attorney's Office has filed 'murder-for-hire' and murder-for-hire conspiracy charges against Indian national Nikhil Gupta." "In a statement today, the US Attorney's Office accused an Indian government employee of being part of a murder conspiracy." NDTV. Surely, "internal matters" do not extend to the US? A spokesperson for the (UN) Secretary General Staphane Dujarric hoped that in India people's "political and civil rights are protected" and everyone is able to vote in a "free and fair" atmosphere. DH. Yogendra Yadav, an Indian, said, "Here is a safe election forecast: 2024 is going to be the least free and fair national election in Independent India. We do not know if it will eventually turn out to be a seriously compromised election or a complete farce." The Wire. So far US President Joe Biden has been largely supportive of Mr Modi, but "The Democrats already stand in danger of losing the overwhelming support of American-Muslim votes in the 2024 presidential election." DH. And, "The Russian foreign ministry has said that the flow of Russian oil to India continues at a high and stable rate, with no challenges in payment transactions despite global sanctions." TOI. What if the US, EU and the UN refuse to recognize Mr Modi's victory, if he wins, as fair? Elections may be "internal matters" but recognition is external. Can't be forced. 

The elephant could wander uphill.

At a three-day meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decided to "keep the key policy interest rates unchanged for the seventh time in a row, in line with market expectations, and reiterated commitment to bring down inflation to its target of 4% on a sustainable basis." DH. It took three days to do nothing. That's a lot of tea and biscuits. "With a majority of 5:1, the committee decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. RBI has forecast Indian economy to grow at 7% in FY25." "CPI inflation projection left unchanged for FY25 at 4.5%. Forex reserves at an all time high of $645.6 billion as of March 29." ET. By predicting consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 4.5% while expecting a growth rate of 7%, the highest in the world, the RBI is blatantly ignoring its mandate of targeting a 4% CPI inflation rate till March 2026. ET. In fact, since October 2019, CPI inflation has been mostly at 5% or higher, the highest being 7.8% in April 2022 and the lowest 4.1% in January 2021. RI. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that "when CPI inflation had peaked at 7.8% in April 2022, the elephant in the room was inflation. The elephant has now gone out for a walk and appears to be returning to the forest." ET. That is hilarious, indeed. Why such jocularity? Because, as per the 7th Pay Commission recommendation, Dearness Relief has been increased by 4% to 50% for retired Central government officials. ET. 'Dearness' means "the fact of being expensive". dictionary. Thus, if an official is receiving Rs 200,000 per month as pension, she/he will get an additional 50% or Rs 100,000 to ride the elephant of inflation, even as it wanders around. "Latest data on various external vulnerability indicators suggest improved resilience of India's external sector. We remain confident of comfortably meeting our external financing requirements," Das said. Despite that, the RBI bought $2.95 billion of foreign exchange, raising reserves to a record $645.58 billion. Reuters. The RBI also bought 8.7 tonnes of gold in January. "The central bank's gold reserves rose to just over 812.3 tonnes by the end of Jan." TOI. That put India at ninth in the world after Japan which had 846 tonnes. wikipedia. Has this anything to do with the US dollar? "Employers in the US added more than 300,000 jobs last month - the biggest gain in almost a year - as the boom in the world's largest economy continued. The jobless rate fell to 3.8%, as most sectors, including health care, construction and the government added roles, the Labor Department said." BBC. Which means, "Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic,...told CNBC he now thinks the Fed should make just one (rate) cut this year - below the three that were predicted by Fed officials in March." ET. That could raise the dollar, put downward pressure on the rupee, raise the cost of imports and thus send the elephant up a hill. That would not be so funny. Would it?

Not if, but how far.

"Just before 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which are scheduled to begin from April 19, once again Prime Minister is having a 'surgical strike' moment of sorts." ET.  On 26 February 2019, just before the election, Indian warplanes supposedly bombed terrorist training camps inside Pakistan. "Open source satellite imagery has revealed that no targets of consequence were hit. The following day, Pakistan shot down an Indian warplane and took its pilot Abhinandan Varrthaman, as prisoner." wikipedia. Whatever the truth, Mr Modi's party the BJP won a majority of 303 seats out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. "This time it is a viral news report in the British newspaper Guardian that talks about how India got 20 people killed inside Pakistan over the past three months in targeted assassinations. While the government has denied having any role in the killings, a lot of Indians on social media are feeling proud of this 'achievement'." While vigorously denying these allegations as "false and malicious" propaganda, but not wanting to lose the electoral bonus, "India will enter Pakistan to kill anyone who escapes over the border after trying to carry out terrorists activities in the country, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh told CNN News18." Reuters. A kind of 'nudge-nudge, wink-wink' signal to Bhakts, who live in an alternate reality, (DH) and believe that Mr Modi is a modern day Atlas carrying the world on his shoulders (Britannica). According to the craven supine media, contemptuously labeled the 'godi media' (wikipedia), Mr Modi has already won the election. However, if elected, "The Congress party, as part of its anti-corruption measures, promised to investigate 'dubious deals and schemes'. It said that it would probe demonetisation, the Rafale deal, Pegasus software, and Electoral Bonds scheme." BT. Ominously, the Congress manifesto "refrained from listing measures to curb the 'misuse' of laws like the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) and Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) which, it maintains, have been misused against political opponents, dissidents and activists." TOI. It is not just some in the BJP who will feel a chill at the thought, but the 25 opposition leaders, who have seen criminal allegations against them washed clean after joining the BJP (The Wire), may be panicking, even if confident of victory. Then, there are the civil servants. "The bureaucracy was conceived to promote and safeguard public interest." But "Today's civil servants have been subverting established systems to please the political masters," wrote Mathew John. All these people could be having nightmares about facing the PMLA and UAPA. And, since these dishonorable, corrupt individuals will be in charge of the elections Mr Modi's victory is all but guaranteed. The question now is: How far will they go?  

More than Gini.

In India, the Gini coefficient was 0.30 in 1993-94, 0.35 in 2004-05, 0.36 in 2009-10 and 0.36 in 2011-12, wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. Gini coefficient is a measure of income, where 0 represents perfect equality of income, while 1 represents all income concentrated in the hands of one individual. wikipedia. So, while consumption surveys show that millions of Indians have been lifted out of poverty, the rising Gini index shows increasing inequality. However, a villager in India "hardly cares if Mukesh Ambani adds another five billion to his wealth in a given year. But if her neighbor's wealth rises sharply while she struggles, she has sleepless nights." Mukesh Ambani's net worth is estimated at $115.2 billion (Forbes), which converts to Rs 9.56 trillion. This is so colossal that even an educated middle-class Indian will be unable to wrap her mind around its meaning. After the Reserve Bank (RBI) decided to withdraw Rs 2000 notes from circulation  (ET), the Indian villager will be unable to calculate how many Rs 500 notes will make Rs 1 million. That is because only 43% of 14-18 year old children can do a simple division problem, according to the Annual Status of Education Survey (ASER) 2023. The Wire. For an economy which boasts of being the fifth largest in the world with a GDP of $4,112 billion (Forbses) reduction of abject poverty is not enough. "Although the youth population, at 27% of the total population in 2021, is expected to decline to 23% by 2036, around 7-8 million youths are added to the labor force each year." "Overall, the youth unemployment rate declined after 2017-18 dropping to 12.4% in 2021-22 and further to 10% in 2022-23." But, "the percentage of unemployed youth with secondary and above education among the total unemployed has increased from 54.2% in 1999-00 to 65.7% in 2021-22," wrote Alakh N Sharma and Ravi Srivastava. While, Mukesh Ambani adding a few more billions to his wealth, or that son Anant has a collection of luxury watches worth Rs 2 billion (GQ), may be irrelevant to the educated youth, they have a right to feel a trifle aggrieved that Ambani's children have joined the board of directors of the $100 billion Reliance Industries. wikipedia. "Twins Isha and Akash, 32, got over 98% of votes for being appointed on the board of Reliance while Anant, 28, got 92.75% votes, the filing showed." NDTV. Because papa Mukesh Ambani owns 50.39% of the company. India's billionaires - "Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani and Sajjan Jindal - have entered the leagues of the world's richest people." "None of this trickled down to workers. The share of manufacturing, which could have created jobs for the bulging youth population, has shrunk to 13% of the overall output, compared to 28% in China," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Perhaps, the Gini is not enough. Perhaps, we need indices for opportunity, for cronyism and for dignity. Prof Panagariya should work on those.      

Can't dismantle. Advise.

"Questioning the methodology of global rating agencies, India's CEA (Chief Economic Advisor) V Anantha Nageswaran pressed for the dismantling (of) Moody's, Standard & Poor, and Fitch's oligopoly. India's economy, despite rising to the world's fifth-largest from the 12th over 15 years, remains in the lowest investment grade assigned by the agencies. This has dismayed Nageswaran, who attributes the low rating to the over-reliance of rating agencies on qualitative parameters." BT. These are all US firms so India cannot dismantle them. As the CEA, why doesn't he set up an Indian index and award the highest rating to India? Just as, "The Narendra Modi government has approached a major India think tank to develop its own democracy ratings index to help it counter recent downgrades in ratings and severe criticisms by international groups, Al Jazeera reported." International organizations have rated India as "Partly Free", "Electoral Autocracy" and "Flawed Democracy". The Observer Research Foundation (ORF) is to release the index soon. The Wire. Risky. It might provide material for jokes by comedians in Western countries. "A squeeze on free expression and opposition has been a feature of the rule of Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially since its second general election victory five years ago. Harassment, often by tax or legal authorities, has become common for government critics, be they independent media, academics, think tanks or civil society groups," opined the Financial Times editorial board. HT. We agree. Totally. S&P rates India as BBB-, Moody's as Baa3 and Fitch as BBB-, all with stable outlook. TE. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) held Rs 62 trillion worth of Indian stocks as of the end of January 2024, which is 16.3% of total market capitalization of Rs 380 trillion. Mint. That's a lot of money. It is therefore the duty of these rating agencies to guide their investors of their own nation. On the other hand, "Global funds have already added about $10 billion into Indian bonds since JP Morgan Chase & Co's September announcement of the nation's inclusion in its closely followed emerging-market debt index." HT. "Bloomberg Index Services said...it would include in its Emerging Market Local Currency Index from Jan. 31 next year 34 Indian government bonds eligible for investment via the fully accessible route (FAR)." Mint. Both these firms are also American. "The pricing power by the 'Big 5 companies' in India is possibly leading to persistent core inflation, former Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Viral Acharya said." The Big 5 are - the Reliance Group, Tata Group, Aditya Birla Group, Adani Group and Bharti Airtel. The Wire. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) operates seven ports/terminals on the west coast and eight port/terminals on the east coast. ET. Adani Enterprises "owns and operates seven airports across India, six of which it won as part of the government's privatisation drive in 2019." Reuters. The CEA is supposed to advise. He should advise an end to crony capitalism. Ratings will improve automatically. If he dares.