More people, more heat.

"Falling birth rates are a major concern for some of Asia's biggest economies." BBC. "Japan began introducing policies to encourage couples to have more children in the 1990s. South Korea started doing the same in the 2000s, while Singapore's first fertility policy dates back to 1987. China, which has seen its population fall for the first time in 60 years, recently joined the growing club." These policies have failed. "Japan's finance ministry has published a study which said the policies were a failure." Fertility rate for the European Union is just 1.5, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1 per woman. World Bank. Populations shrank in 22 countries of Europe in 2022 and the trend has continued in 2023. wikipedia. For India, "The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) -- which is the average number of children who would be born to any woman in her lifetime -- has declined from 2.2 in 2025-16 to 2.0 in 2019-21. It was revealed in the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey, or NHFS-5, conducted over two years starting in 2019." BS. "India's TFR of 2 is currently below the replacement of fertility of 2.1 children per woman." "Africa, on the other hand, seems to be going in the opposite direction. The sub-Saharan region has the world's highest average fertility rate at 4.6, with Niger topping the list at 6.8 children per woman, followed by Somalia at 6. Congo, Mali and Chad each have fertility rates of over 5." DW. "African societies are not only growing fast, they are also much younger than almost any other region. While the median age in Europe is 42.5, in Africa the figure stands as low as 18." One Asian country is defying the trend of falling fertility rates, and that is India's neighbor Pakistan. "Pakistan is hurtling towards an apocalypse" which is "There are simply too many of us, too many to educate, to keep healthy, to provide jobs for, or to govern in a manner that could ensure the semblance of an ordered society." Dawn. "Each year, there are in this country 1.4m unwanted births and 2.2m abortions and miscarriages that could be avoided through family planning." Although many Indians are pleased to see Pakistan suffering, a collapse of the nation with nuclear weapons and jihadi fanatics, would be extremely dangerous for us. "The past offers some clues. The turmoil in Pakistan in 1971 led to a bloody subcontinental war and the creation of Bangladesh. In 2008, the movement against Pervez Musharraf's military rule came to an end and the leader suffered a defeat at the polls. Months later militants linked to Pakistan attacked India's western city of Mumbai." BBC. If militants don't kill us, global warming may. "We are adding 80 million to the global population annually." Independent. "Combined with exploding consumption, the population explosion is pushing humanity over the climate and ecological crises cliffs." "So why is there a deathly silence from the climate movement and at Cop on the 'P' word." Some Pakistanis are worried. Indians and Africans should be worried too. 

No respect for money.

"The Indian economy exhibited robust resilience in the previous fiscal," but "witnessed a moderation in growth in the second half of the fiscal. The RBI has attributed this to unfavorable base effects, weakening private consumption demand caused by high inflation, a slowdown in export growth and sustained input cost pressures." ET. "Job demand under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) declined on an annual basis, but still prevailed above the pre-pandemic level in the previous fiscal. This indicates that the recovery, especially in the unorganised segment of the economy is not yet complete, RBI said." The MGNREGS seeks to provide 100 days of guaranteed employment in rural areas to provide financial assistance to the rural poor. nagard.in. "The unemployment rate in urban areas in the January-March quarter of 2023 slowed to 6.8% from 8.2% in the January-March period of last year." ET. But the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for women increased to a pathetic 22.7% from 22.3% in the October-December 2022 period. It is deeply embarrassing that the LFPR for Indian women is below that of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and way below that of Bangladesh. theglobaleconomy.com. The fall in urban employment is good news because agricultural employment increased from 42.5% in 2018-19 to 45.5% in 2021-22. The Wire. A significant share of employment in agriculture is unpaid self-employment. "Slowdown in discretionary purchases by Indian consumers is likely to continue for a few more months before a strong revival in demand in the second half of the fiscal, chief executives of several leading consumer-focused companies said. By then they expect inflation to taper down and economic growth to normalise, triggering a consumption boom like last year till Diwali." ET. Consumer price (CPI) inflation rate fell to 4.7% in April from 5.66% in March 2023. Mint. A fall in the rate of inflation does not mean that things are getting cheaper. It only means that prices have increased by 4.7% on top of last year's prices when they increased by 7.79% in April. Increased spending by a section of consumers was a global phenomenon, including in the US, last year and has been dubbed 'revenge spending' due to demand pent up during Covid lockdown. CNN. That demand has been exhausted by now, so the spending power of Indian consumers remains to be seen. Meanwhile, "India has emerged as a key source country for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Dubai, one of the wealthiest of the seven emirates in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report." BI. Why invest in Dubai and not at home? Because, "Once again, India wants people to look into their wallets and cash tills and do due diligence on their pink 2,000 rupees," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Sovereign cash should have no room for questions. Its users shouldn't have to value the bills as long as they're confident that when it's time to hand them over to someone else they wouldn't have to provide any answers either. Ignorance is bliss." Exactly. An arrogant government believes that it owns all the money in India and citizens are thieves if they have any. Better to invest in rich Dubai. At least your money will be respected.  

Take them to Bengaluru.

"In what could bring about an abrupt end to the wrestlers' protest at Jantar Mantar, the Delhi Police detained Vinesh Phogat, Sakshi Malik and Bajrang Punia and later filed FIRs against them for violation of law and order, as dramatic scenes unfolded at the protest site on Sunday." TOI. "The Delhi Police said it will not allow the wrestlers back into the protest site." Why are Olympic medal-winning wrestlers sitting in protest instead of practicing? "India's top wrestlers have been staging protests in New Delhi over the past few days demanding action against a powerful politician, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who is accused of sexually harassing and intimidating female athletes. Singh, a member of parliament, is from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and has helmed the Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) since 2011." DW. "Police in India's capital Delhi have filed cases including rioting against the country's top wrestlers after they were detained during a protest." BBC. The world already knows. If the Congress wants to dent BJP's chances in next year's general election they should offer a safe site in Bangaluru for their protests. "Congress has won the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections by the biggest vote share and seats after a whopping 34 years." HT. Bengaluru is the capital of Karnataka and is home to some of the biggest names in the IT industry. aboutkarnataka. com. Wrestlers' protest there will really make the BJP famous around the world, especially during the year of G20 (wikipedia). "But here's the surprising thing: why hasn't Prime Minister Modi intervened? After all Modi spends a lot of time talking about his commitment to women," asked Vir Sanghvi. Because, "Modi knows that one reason why all the charges of corruption and impropriety leveled against the UPA stuck was because Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi sacked people at the slightest provocation." "In fact, the sackings had the opposite effect. People believed that the charges were valid: why else would ministers be sacked." "Not only did it make the UPA look like a government of scams, it also made Manmohan Singh look weak." "The Modi government is determined not to make the same mistake - even when the charges are real." "In less than a decade, we have traveled from 'hang the rapists' to 'garland the rapists'," wrote Prashant. "While the 11 rapists from Gujarat, convicted in 2008, were out of prison for two to three years even before they were granted remission, the BJP government in Haryana has been giving Ram Rahim paroles and furloughs repeatedly - each time around election - since his conviction in 2017." And, if rape and sexual assault are to be ignored, what chance of finding the truth about friend Gautam Adani? "Thanks to a 173-page report by a six-member panel appointed by India's Supreme Court, we now have a fairly good idea of where the country's probe into the Adani Group is headed: Nowhere," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Rape and sexual assault are taken extremely seriously in many nations. Use the optics. Now is the time. 

Foreigners are polite.

"India plans to push back against 'agenda driven', 'neo-colonial' country rankings produced by global agencies on topic like governance and press freedom a key advisor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Reuters in an interview." The Print. Sanjiv Sanyal, a member of Modi's Economic Advisory Council, said a "tiny group of think-tanks in the North Atlantic" are "driving a real-world agenda". "(The) World Bank is involved in this discussion because it takes these opinions from these think-tanks and effectively sanctifies it by putting it into something called the world governance index," Sanyal said." Not all rankings are bad. "India is placed at the 103rd spot, with unemployment identified as the primary contributing factor to the country's relative level of misery. Among 157 countries analyzed, Switzerland emerged as the least miserable, occupying the top position (157) on the list." HT. While India is not so miserable, it is not so happy either. "India ranked at No. 126 in the World Happiness Report 2023. This is an improvement from last year, when India's position was at No. 136 on the list, but India is still behind close neighbors like Sri Lanka (No. 112), Pakistan (No. 108) and Nepal (No. 78)." indiatimes.com. Behind Pakistan? No wonder they are angry. On the other hand, India does not care about China or Saudi Arabia. "China and Saudi Arabia, along with Turkey and Egypt, boycotted G20's Tourism Working Group (TWG) in Srinagar, Kashmir, this week." ET. "That GoI (government of India) went ahead and held the meetings in Kashmir despite knowing that there would be Pavlovian pushback underscores India's growing confidence. That other G20 members and invitees attended the meetings signals growing acceptance of India's position that Kashmir is an integral part of the country." "A US Congressional Committee has recommended strengthening Nato Plus by including India in the five-member grouping to win the 'strategic competition with the Chinese Communist Party'." HT. "Nato Plus 5 is a security arrangement of 31 member countries with five aligned nations - Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel and South Korea - to address the rise of China. It was formalised in 2019." It is not some story spread by foreigners. Many Indian citizens are miserable under the present regime. "Modani has entered India's political lexicon," wrote Yogendra Yadav. "It is, at least potentially, a political concept that describes and analyses what it critiques. The concept names the latest phase in India's political economy, the specific variety of the linkage between economic and political power that characterise the present government." And "For the creation of a Hindu India of its dreams, the BJP does not want the Prime Minister to be ridiculed or diminished in any way. That is why the State today demands and rewards loyalty and considers it necessary to punish those who dare to differ with or criticise Modi." DH. Actually it is much worse than what the "agenda driven" "neo-colonial" foreigners say. Unless you are a BJP MP. CNN. Then you can do whatever. Foreigners are actually quite restrained.     

Autograph for Biden.

"US President Joe Biden...asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his autograph after discovering how he has been managing large crowds, according to sources." India Today. "When US President Joe Biden walked up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Quad meeting, one of the points he made was the large number of requests he was getting from prominent citizens to attend the Indian leader's programs during his next month state visit to Washington DC, officials said." "You are causing me a real problem," Biden said to Modi. "Everyone in the whole country wants to come. I have run out of tickets. You think I am kidding? Ask my team. I am getting phone calls from people I have never heard of before. Everyone from movie actors to relatives. You are too popular." ET. Heady stuff. Nectar for the ego. Australia was not to be left behind. "Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese heaped praise on Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, likening him to rock star Bruce Springsteen in a gushing introductory speech at a stadium." CNN. Springsteen is an enormously popular American singer and songwriter known as "The Boss". wikipedia. "The last time I saw someone here was Bruce Springsteen, and he didn't get the welcome that Prime Minister Modi has got." "Prime Minister Modi is the boss!" he added, to thunderous applause. Just days before the "thunderous applause", "Two Australian universities - Federation University in Victoria and Western Sidney University in New South Wales - have separately announced bans on the intake of Indian students from some Indian states citing concerns over a rise in fraudulent visa applications." The banned states are Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Earlier the same states were banned as, "At least five Australian universities have placed bans or restrictions on students from some Indian states, amidst a surge in fraudulent applications from South Asia seeking to work - not study - in this country, according to a media report." ET. This when, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said in the era of Amrit Kaal, the country is forging new definitions and creating a new order." AIR. 'Amrit' means 'nectar for eternal life' and 'kaal' means 'era'. Gujaratis, from Modi's home state of Gujarat, are paying $70,000- $75,000, a small fortune in India, to people smugglers to escape to the US. DW. Some are paying with their lives as well. It seems that Gujaratis are not satisfied with the bountiful Amrit Kaal they are receiving. How ungrateful! Meanwhile, "In a new report, the Daily Mail has reported that violent ethnic clashes that took part in Leicester, UK last year were allegedly 'stoked by Prime Minister Modi's Hindu nationalist party'." The Wire. In the latest NDTV-CSDS Survey, "Twenty-seven percent of those surveyed attributed Modi's popularity to his oratory, and only 11 percent to his policies." DH. After all, "You can fool some of the people all of the time" (Abraham Lincoln). Sadly, elections are won by fools. 

Growing like Vande Bharat.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday (yesterday) said that India is being watched with great hope by the world today and that the country has made remarkable progress in strengthening the economy, battling poverty and combating the Covid-19 pandemic." TOI. "The Prime Minister said, India is unstoppable now and said that it is advancing and will continue to advance at a speed parallel to that of Vande Bharat." Vande Bharat are express trains designed for day trips between major cities in India. wikipedia. Unfortunately, "India's fastest train 'Vande Bharat Express' has been running at an average speed of around 83 kmph over the last two years despite being capable of hitting a maximum of 180 kmph owing to poor track conditions, a reply to an RTI query has revealed. The RTI, filed by Madhya Pradesh-based Chandra Shekhar Gaur, said the average speed of the semi high-speed train was 84.48 kmph in 2021-22, while the same was 81.38 kmph in 2022-23." Is India's economy running at less than half the speed necessary, like the Vande Bharat? "India's gross domestic product growth could be above 7% for 2022-23, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said." ET. "China's economy grew at 9.26% in 1991 and continued to run at an average of around 10% for two decades till 2011 when it grew at 9.55%. The highest rate was 14.23% in 2007 and the lowest was 7.66% in 1999. macrotrends. China's nominal GDP was $17.734 trillion in 2021. World Bank. And yet, it is considered a middle-income country. "China's push to revive its economy in 2023 has a central theme of circumventing the middle-income trap, which the world's second-largest economy now faces." The Print. "India  is currently a lower-middle income country with a GNI (Gross National Income) per capita of $2,170." Mint. While, "an income greater than $13,205 is currently categorized as high-income." To grow income the economy has to create jobs. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha compared India's economy with 6 other Asian nations when their populations had a median age of 28, like we have now. The biggest difference is that, "India's labor force participation rate is much lower than what others reported at that time, and this gap ranges from 15 to 32 percentage points. Much of this wide gap is explained by very low levels of female participation in the labor force." To increase employment we need to educate our youth. Young people are spending large sums of money to get degrees, "Yet half of all graduates in India are unemployable in the future due to problems in the education system, according to a study by talent assessment firm Wheebox." BS. Enrollment in primary schools is 100% but, "83% of girls and 81% of boys clear secondary school, while 67.7% of girls and 61.6% of boys clear higher secondary; this translates to a whopping 39% dropout rate for boys," wrote Shailja Vaidya Gupta. As for the GDP, "India's national accountants use outdated data, heroic assumptions and rough proxies to fill these gaps in the national accounting database," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. When GDP is not known we can grow at any speed. Like Vande Bharat Express.

Repeat of demonetisation.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to withdraw the Rs 2000 denomination banknotes from circulation. But existing notes will continue to be legal tender, RBI announced." TIE. This sudden announcement sent a shiver of apprehension down our spines, as memories of standing in queues in front of banks for hours to exchange our Rs 1000 and Rs 500 notes, which were suddenly rendered useless with 4 hours notice, on 8 November 2016. wikipedia. The RBI stopped printing the Rs 2000 notes in 2018-19 anyway. There was no need for this policy because, "as of March 2017, the Rs 2,000 notes formed a little over 50% of the total currency in circulation in value terms. This had come down to just 10.8% by March 2023," wrote Vivek Kaul. The RBI could have instructed banks not to re-issue any of these notes deposited by customers and send them back to the RBI for destruction, just as they do with soiled notes. The excuse of eliminating black money does not wash. "On average, currency typically formed less than 5% of the total undisclosed wealth identified," according to the 2102 White Paper on Black Money by the Central Board of Direct Taxes. "Take the case of Nigeria, which is one of the most corrupt countries in the world. It also has one of the lowest ratios of currency in circulation." "On May 16, GoI (government of India) announced it would impose a TCS (tax collected at source) of 20% on international credit and debit card transactions made by Indians on foreign travels from July 1, 2023," wrote Prof Rajeswari Sengupta. And, "it seems ironic that these announcements were made when the country is trying to internationalise its currency, for example, for using it to trade with other countries. An important prerequisite for a currency to become international is people having confidence in it." "Even if 80% of people legitimately store this money in Rs 2,000 notes, they are likely to store only 20% of the overall value. Now, 20% of those who store the money in Rs 2,000 are possibly hoarders, accounting for 80% of the value of Rs 3 lakh crore (Rs 3 trillion)," wrote KV Subramanian, Executive Director, IMF. This is pure conjecture without any evidence. "Subramanian taught at the Goizueta Business School at Emory University in the United States of America from 2005 to 2010." wikipedia. If he was a tenured professor why did he return to India? Or, did he not receive tenure? So, who benefits from this latest assault on our currency? The government and the rich, as usual. "Bulk borrowing rates for the government and corporates are set to reduce in the short term as the central bank move to withdraw India's highest denomination banknotes of Rs 2,000 from the markets is expected to boost banking system liquidity." ET. A total of Rs 500 billion to Rs 1 trillion is expected to be deposited in banks. The rich are merely using these notes instead of their cards as they do their shopping. asiaone.com. Currency is wealth. Degrading it will not make India rich.

Not about demand and capacity.

"India's GDP crossed USD 3.5 trillion in 2022 and will be the fastest growing G-20 economy over the next few years, but reform and policy barriers could hamper investment, Moody's said. In a research report, the US based rating agency said bureaucracy could slow approval processes in obtaining licenses and setting up businesses, prolonging project gestation." ET. "It said a large young educated workforce, increasing nuclear families and urbanization will fuel demand for housing, cement and new cars." "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 'State of the Economy' report for May said, in the first quarter 2023-24, growth is expected to be driven by private consumption, supported by reviving rural demand, and renewed buoyancy in manufacturing on easing input cost pressures." TN. "Based on available partial data for April 2023 and assuming a GDP growth rate of 5.1 percent for Q4, 2022-23, the economic activity index projects a GDP growth rate of 7.6 percent for Q1 of 2023-24. It also emphasizes that with manufacturing capacity utilization reaching and even surpassing trend levels in some industries, private capital expenditure needs to strengthen in order to expand capacity as demand increases." ABP. "Capacity utilization rate measures the percentage of an organization's potential output that is actually being realized." Investopedia. Which means that, if demand is so strong that a company is utilizing all its installed machinery and its labor, then it will spend on new investments to increase its profits. "Low capacity utilisation is one of the reasons for the poor interest of the private sector. Capacities already created are still underutilised and therefore, the economic reason to create additional capacities is limited," wrote Mahesh Vyas, CEO of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). "According to the RBI's OBICUS, capacity utilisation through all of 2022 was well over 70%. It peaked at 75% in March." "But, this increase was not adequate to spur investments." "Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are off to a slow start in the financial year 2024 due to downtrading-phenomenon of buyers moving towards smaller, low-packed packs. Four out of the six FMCG categories tracked by Bizom in both urban and rural areas witnessed downtrading in April 2023 as compared to the same month last year." TOI. Demand is soaring according to the RBI, but people are buying smaller packs. Are people fools? "Since 2012, private-sector investment as a share of Indian GDP has steadily declined. The World Bank and other experts attribute this trend to polarization and a growing lack of trust. While public investment has increased dramatically over the past decade, this can be a dangerous trend: When the government has disproportionate control over investment, it often leads to cronyism," wrote Prof Kaushik Basu. And hence, "Thanks to a 173-page report by a six-member panel appointed by India's Supreme Court, we now have a fairly good idea of where the country's probe into the Adani Group is headed: Nowhere," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Demand and capacity can't be talked up. When trust is broken.

Shutdowns are nothing new.

"President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could not reach an agreement on Monday (yesterday) on how to raise the US government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling with just 10 days before default that could sink the US economy, but vowed to keep talking." Reuters. They can't reach a deal because, "McCarthy pressures the White House to agree to spending cuts in the federal budget that Biden considers 'extreme', and the president pushes new taxes that Republicans have rejected." "If the US government can't agree to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, it risks defaulting on its debt." HT. "A US default would likely cause chaos in the financial markets." "The government likely won't make it through June 15 without defaulting on its obligations unless lawmakers reach a debt deal, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen." BI. "Yellen also rebuffed notions that the US could avoid a default without Congress lifting the debt ceiling, like Joe Biden invoking the 14th Amendment, which says the validity of US debt 'shall not be questioned'." On the other hand, "The US doesn't actually have to pay off its $31 trillion mountain of debt, according to top economist Paul Krugman," because, "Though the debt-to-GDP ratio hovered around 97% last year, interest payments on that debt is only around $395 billion, according to the Office of Management and Budget, or around 1% of last year's GDP." "Historically, it's unusual for governments to pay off large debts," like "Great Britain, which has largely held on to the debt it incurred as far back as the Napoleonic wars." "First things first: all the experts BBC spoke to do not think the US will default on its debt." BBC. However, "The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates that if the government cannot reach a debt ceiling agreement for a prolonged period, the economy could shrink by as much as 6.1%." "If the debt crisis roiling Washington were eventually to send the United States crashing into recession, America's economy would hardly sink alone." AP. "A debt default would be a cataclysmic event, with an unpredictable but probably dramatic fallout on US and global financial markets," said Prof Eswar Prasad. But, the US government has shut down previously. The US federal government shut down for 5 days from 14-19 November 1995 and again for 21 days from 16 December 1995 to 6 January 1996 because of a budget disagreement between then President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Newt Gingrich. wikipedia. Democrat Clinton won his re-election in 1996. The US government again shut down for 35 days from 22 December 2018 to 25 January 2020 because of budget disagreement between President Donald Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. wikipedia. Republican Trump lost his re-election in 2020. In 2011, "when lawmakers agreed to raise the debt limit just days before the nation was about to exhaust its borrowing capacity," "The stock market tumbled, the Dow shedding 17% in the weeks surrounding the crisis." CBS. Although the two events may not have been related, Democrat Barack Obama won his re-election in 2012. The Democrats have won every time there has been a government shutdown. Create an unnecessary confrontation. A supportive media gets hysterical. Biden refuses compromise. Wins re-election in 2024. No matter the economy.

Bypass the dollar.

"Last Sunday, the Iraqi government announced a ban on doing personal or business deals in US dollars." DW. "Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia's finance minister said his country was also 'open' to selling oil using different currencies, including the euro and the Chinese yuan. The United Arab Emirates has said it will work with India, using the Indian rupee." Additionally, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain want to join BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - and Russia has said "the alliance will discuss the creation of a new kind of currency". Since 2021, a pilot project between the Bank of International Settlements and the UAE, Thailand, Hong Kong and China has been looking at "digital, cross-border payments that might bypass the dollar. So is it RIP for the US dollar? Not quite. The Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, China has a good credit rating with no modern history of defaults, Chinese bond yields are higher than similar high-rated bonds and the People's Bank of China controls the exchange rate of the yuan within a narrow range. Georgetown University. That is good but China controls capital outflow to control  the value of its currency. "That China uses capital outflow controls is a serious concern for foreign investors - including central banks - since controls have implications for liquidity." "When used they can effectively lock investors' capital in China." As for India, "Several banks, including HDFC Bank and UCO Bank, have opened as many as 30 special vostro accounts as of date to facilitate overseas trade in the rupee." ET. "The move to open the special vostro account clears the deck for settlement of payments in rupee for trade between India and Russia, enabling cross-border trade in the Indian currency, which the RBI is keen to promote." "In 2021 Russian oil accounted for just 2% of India's annual crude imports. That figure now stands at almost 20%, the Bank of Baroda said. India's purchases of oil from Russia during the last financial year, saved it around $89 per tonne of crude, the figures show." BBC. As a result, "Russia has accumulated billions of rupees in Indian banks which it can't use, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said...pointing to the ballooning trade surplus with the South Asian nation." HT. "This is a problem," Lavrov said. "We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now." "An Associated Press analysis of a dozen countries most indebted to China - including Pakistan, Kenya, Zambia, Laos and Mongolia - found paying back the debt is consuming an ever-greater amount of the tax revenue needed to keep schools open, provide electricity and pay for food and fuel." AP. China not only controls its currency, it is increasingly controlling people. "China is increasingly barring people from leaving the country, including foreign executives, a jarring message as the authorities say the country is open for business after three years of tight COVID-19 restrictions." Reuters. The rupee cannot be used and China is a rogue nation. So, the dollar lives.  

Fastest is relative.

"India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the October to December quarter moderated to 4.4 percent from 6.3 percent in the previous quarter, data shared by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed." ET. According to experts, GDP growth would have been at 7% in 2022-23 and will be around 6% in 2023-24 because of "aggressive rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India" and because of "consumption growth, which has been at around 2% and obviously the government expenditure has been negative." "Compared to 1980-81, using current prices, the share of 'agriculture and allied activities' has dropped from 38 percent of GDP to 21 percent, while that of services has grown from 37 percent to 53 percent. That of industry (including has remained construction and utilities) has remained more or less unchanged at 26 percent." The Print. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas "contended that India's growth in the current year (estimated by the IMF at 5.9 percent) was near the limit of its capacity, and there was no 'output gap' between actual and potential growth." "The output gap is an economic measure of the difference between the actual output of an economy and its potential output. Potential output is the maximum amount of goods and services an economy can turn out when it is most efficient - that is at full capacity." IMF. If there is no output gap in India the economy must be working at near full capacity and any rise in demand will merely result in higher prices. Which may explain why consumer price (CPI) inflation has been averaging at over 6% since December 2019, rateinflation.com, even as the RBI tried to stimulate growth by holding interest rate at 4% for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022. NDTV. It is only natural that consumer demand will slow down if prices keep soaring, as "the 2023 PwC Global Consumer Insights Pulse Survey said, 63% of Indian consumers are tightening expenditure on non-essential goods and services," because "The average inflation in FY23 was 6.7%, prices in rural areas increased 6.8% from year earlier. The urban retail inflation averaged 6.4% in FY23." ET. As a result, "Corporate profits from January to April, or Q4 of financial year 2022-23, are up just 2-3% year-on-year, Business Standard reported." The Wire. "This is the companies' worst performance since April-June 2020." To put it in perspective, a near total lockdown was imposed on the whole of India from 25 March 2020 which shut down all economic activity, except agriculture, till 1 June, when the government started relaxing it in little increments. wikipedia. "While the government would like India's citizens to believe that the country came out of the exogenous COVID shock in a V-shaped recovery and has become the fastest-growing large economy in the world, most economists outside the government have repeatedly argued that what India experienced has been a K-shaped rebound, not  recovery," wrote Prof Santosh Mehrotra. Our economy is growing fastest among large economies. But is it fast enough?    

Double windfall bonanza.

"The RBI has declared a dividend of Rs 87,416 crore (Rs 874.16 billion) to the government, nearly triple the amount of Rs 30,307 crore (Rs 303.07 billion) paid out in the previous financial year." ET. A windfall bonanza for the government. "Economists said the surprisingly high dividend was a result of the volatility in the foreign exchange market which enabled the RBI to book huge profits through the sale of dollars." "The country's forex reserves, which stood at $606.47 billion on 1 April 2022, the beginning of the fiscal 2022-23, slumped to $578.44 billion on March 31, 2023, posting a decline of $28.03 billion during the year." DH. "India's foreign currency assets, the biggest component of the forex reserves, dropped from $539.72 billion on 1 April 2022 to $509.69 billion on 31 march 2023, registering a decline of $30.03 billion." Selling foreign currency, mainly dollars, strengthened the rupee and subdued the rate of inflation by controlling the rise in prices of imports from a weaker rupee. Even so the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate was 7.8% in April 2022, dropped to a low of 5.7% in December 2022, rose to 6.5% in January 2023 and then dropped to 5.7% in March 2023. rateinflation.com. Record high prices of goods and services generated  record high GST collections, reaching a record of Rs 1.87 trillion in April 2023. TOI. So, the government benefited from high tax collections and has now been rewarded with a huge dividend. Double windfall bonanza. Governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das' "lack of formal education in economics has proven to be a gift that allows him to make unconventional choices with great success," wrote Gokul Rathi. Indeed. Das was rewarded with an extension of his term as governor of the RBI for three more years starting on 10 December 2021. BT. Top officials and the central government in complete harmony. So much so that, "The Union government has established the National Capital Service Authority through an ordinance to make recommendations to the Delhi Lieutenant Governor regarding matters concerning transfer posting, vigilance and other incidental matters." India Today. This was done to override a unanimous verdict by a constitution bench of the Supreme Court of India which said that the elected government of Delhi "shall have power on all services except law and order and land". "If an officer is not responding to govt the collective responsibility is diluted...if an officer feels they are insulated from elected govt they feel they are not accountable," the Chief Justice of India (CJI) said. Who cares about the Supreme Court? Who wants accountability? The hell with the Constitution.

A flood of dollars.

"Goldman Sachs has reduced its current account deficit forecast for India following a $110 billion influx of foreign worker remittances in the previous year." TOI. "Goldman Sachs estimates net remittances at $104 billion in their current (2023) forecasts," and hence, "the investment bank significantly revises down the current account deficit forecast for 2023 to $50 billion, representing 1.4% of GDP compared to the earlier projection of 2.4% of GDP." "India's goal of becoming a global manufacturing hub is gathering momentum as more global companies continue to invest in the country." India Today. Amazon Web Services plans to invest $13 billion (over Rs 1 trillion) by 2030 to build cloud infrastructure, Apple has opened retail stores in Mumbai and New Delhi and intends to increase manufacturing in India, Foxconn is investing $500 million for a manufacturing plant in Telangana and almost $968 million in Karnataka, Cisco Systems intends to export $1 billion worth and Walmart plans to export worth $10 billion from India by 2027. "According to Knight Frank's 'The Wealth Report 2023', India's ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI), with net worth over $30 million, is estimated to rise by 58.4 percent in the next five years from 12,069 in 2022 to 19,119 individuals in 2027." BT. Billionaires will rise from 161 to 195 individuals and common or garden high-net-worth individuals (HNI) with assets of over just $1 million will grow by 107%, from 797,714 to 1.65 million. Meanwhile, "Nearly half of Gen Zs interviewed felt more concerned about the high cost of living followed by unemployment and climate change as they live from paycheck to paycheck, a survey has said." ET. "About 46 percent of Gen Zs and 37 percent of Millennials have taken on either a part or full-time paying job in addition to their primary job." As a consequence, "Sales of large quick-service restaurants, lifestyle, apparel and discretionary products have slowed in the March quarter as well as in April, with companies reporting either flat, low single-digit or declining growth, as consumers downtraded to lower price products amid higher inflation, moderation in pent-up demand and tighter financial conditions." ET. While the pan-India growth rate was at 6%, it was 7% in the south and 3% in the north. "Once billed as a 'gamechanger' in the Indian equity market, the big-bang listing of state-run Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) in 2022 has turned out to be a wealth destructor event for investors." ET. The stock is " now down around 40% from its IPO issue price of Rs 949 per share, taking the total erosion of market capitalisation to about Rs 2.5 lakh crore (Rs 2.5 trillion)." While mutual funds (MFs) have reduced their holding of the stock from 0.74% to 0.63% and foreign investors (FIIs) have reduced theirs from 0.12% to 0.08%, retail investors have increased their holdings from 1.88% to 2.04%. Instead of enriching people LIC has transferred Rs 2.5 trillion from ordinary people to the government. And the Reserve Bank (RBI) aims to do the same as it is expected to double its dividend to the government, ET, which it accrued by not controlling inflation. The foolish Indians - they still have hopes. When will they ever learn. 

Trashing each other.

"India is seeking to normalise the 'brutal and repressive denial of democratic and other rights of Kashmiri Muslims and other minorities' by holding G20 meetings in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Minority Issues, Fernand de Varennes, said." Scroll. "The third meeting of the G20 tourism group is scheduled to be held in Srinagar between May 22 and May 24," and will be the first international summit in J&K since the abrogation of Article 370 which gave it a special status, and "will see the participation of delegates from guest countries and several international organisations." India trashed the report. "India...strongly rejected as 'baseless and unwarranted allegations' the statement issued by the United Nations expert on J&K," saying "As G20 President, it's India's prerogative to host its meetings in any part of the country." TN. Indeed, it is. Just as India will host G20 meetings in New Delhi where female wrestlers are protesting against a BJP MP. "India's female and male wrestlers are braving rain and canings by police as they continue their protests in Delhi demanding 'convincing legal action' against a former top Indian wrestling official who is accused of harassing several female wrestlers." VOA. Their demand has been trashed while the ladies have been thrashed. In February, George Soros, 92, said that "Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be weakened as a politician due to the financial troubles Gautam Adani finds himself in," and "would have to answer questions from foreign investors." DNA. He was trashed by all of BJP, with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar calling him "old, rich, opinionated and dangerous". HT. Recently, "India...categorically trashed as 'biased' and 'motivated' a report by the US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) that alleged 'several violations' of religious freedom in the country." TOI. India slipped 11 places in the World Press Freedom Index, 2023. "The situation has gone from 'problematic' to 'very bad' in three other countries: Tajikistan (down 1 at 153rd), India (down 11 at 161st) and Turkey (down 16 at 165th)," the RSF report said. ET. Below Tajikistan? Trash RSF and the press. In 2018, we trashed a report by the WHO which said that 57% of allopathic doctors in the country have no medical qualifications. They are quacks. ET. In 2019, India trashed a US report that said that India is the chief source of counterfeit medicines in the world. TOI. In 2021, a report by Freedom House downgraded India to 'partly free' from a 'free', while Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute called India an 'electoral autocracy'. "It is hypocrisy. We have a set of self-appointed custodians of the world who find it very difficult to stomach that somebody in India is not looking for their approval," Jaishankar trashed both. With so much trash, it is no surprise that other countries do not want Indians. The Indian passport has fallen to 144 in 2023 and our mobility index has fallen to 70 from 73 in 2022. ET. Trash others and they trash our passports. It's prerogative.

Pakodanomics in China.

"When China was in the midst of a pandemic-induced economic slump in 2020, then Premier Li Keqiang touted the idea of creating jobs by encouraging street vendors to set up shop across the country. The pitch was shot down by close associates of leader Xi Jinping," but "In a major policy reversal 'the street vendor economy' is making a comeback," because "The urban unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds hit a record high of 20.4% in April." CNN. Zibo, "a little known factory town became a sensation for its outdoor barbecue stalls." China must have learnt from India where, in January 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that selling pakodas (fried snacks) should be considered as employment. wikipedia. As a mark of protest, unemployed youngsters in Bengaluru started selling pakodas outside the offices of the BJP which is Modi's party. TNIE. "Most of the employed persons in India are poorly educated," wrote Mahesh Vyas, CEO of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). "48% of the workforce had not even cleared their 10th exams 28% had cleared between 6th and 9th standard and 20% had cleared only the 5th standard." "Only 12% of the workforce was a graduate or a post-graduate. For reference, that ratio in the USA is about 44% for persons of 25 years or more." That is why the US is such a draw for educated Indians. "The United States' gun culture and the increasing number of shootouts worries Indian parents and prospective students, but the allure of a prosperous future outweighs the concerns for safety." The Print. In 2021-22, 75,000 Indian students enrolled in the US, of which 30% were from Hyderabad. "One in four Telugu families had an American connection, the former US Consul General (Hyderabad), Joel Reifman, had said in March 2021." "Ever since the pandemic, American companies big and small have been scrambling to find enough workers to stay fully staffed," newsyahoo.com. Exact opposite of what is happening in China and India. "As the US economy teeters on the brink of recession, Wall Street is already enduring what could turn out to be the most prolonged corporate profits downturn in seven years." ET. "Companies have resorted to laying off workers, with tens of thousands of jobs culled across industries, from tech to retail." And yet, "Ask anyone who is hiring these days. and they'll tell you something curious: It remains incredibly hard to find and hire enough qualified people for the roles they are desperately trying to fill." Meanwhile, Chinese companies are setting up factories in Mexico to bypass US restrictions on Chinese goods. "Chinese companies have no intention of forsaking the American economy, still the largest on earth. Instead, they are setting up operations inside the North American trading bloc as a way to supply Americans with goods." ET. With new companies come new jobs, but not for the Chinese. "Many Chinese are eager to invest in a residence overseas, keen for a safety net in case of a similar disease (like Covid) outbreak, and also to hedge against economic risks at home."Reuters. They must have the money to do so. Those left behind open street stalls. Like selling pakodas.   

Rises and falls.

"Wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) declined to -0.92 percent in April on an annual basis from 1.34 percent in March, the Department for Promotion of Industry and and Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce & Industry said." ET. "The decline in the rate of inflation was broad based, primarily driven by fall in prices of crude, energy prices, non-food and food articles, the government said in the statement." "Inflation as measured by the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), eased to 4.70 percent in April from 5.66 percent in the previous month, government data showed." CNBC. "On the other hand, India's industrial output, as measured by the index of industrial production or IIP, in March declined to 1.1 percent, data from the ministry of statistics showed. In the previous month, February, the IIP was 5.5 percent, and the average from April to February was also 5.5 percent." "India's goods exports shrank 12.7% on-year to $34.66 billion in the first month of FY24 (April), dragged by sluggish demand and recession in major markets, official data showed. Trade deficit fell to a 20-month low at $15.2 billion in April against $18.36 billion a year ago as cooling commodity prices, especially of petroleum, led to a sharp 14% contraction in imports." "As per an official, imports had declined on the back of cooling commodity prices and reduced demand for products considered as discretionary spends." "India Inc's net profits for the January-March 2023 quarter (Q4FY23), are up just 2.3% year-on-year, which is the worst performance by them since April-June 2020 (Q1FY21), Business Standard reported." ET. "According to the report, combined net profits were up 47.6% YoY in Q4 FY22." Is the 2.3% growth this year on top of last year's growth at 47.6%? Can profits just keep growing in percentage terms and is there no upper limit? "Margins of several large packaged goods companies picked up sharply in the January-March period" due to "a decline in costs of key commodities, consumers' ability to absorb price hikes in urban markets and premiumisation of select categories." ET. No wonder the government raked in a record Rs 1.87035 trillion from goods and services tax (GST) collections. pib.gov.in. "Shopping across ecommerce platforms is growing slower than anticipated," as "Executives said they are witnessing lower uptake due to factors such as consumption slowdown and decreased discounts from new-age brands due to the funding winter." ET. "India's unemployment rate climbed to a four-month high, the latest data showed," as "The nationwide joblessness rose to 8.11% in April from 7.8% in March." ET. This is from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) because the Indian government does not reveal such data. However, "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das...said that the central bank stands by its FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.5% even as some international agencies, including the IMF, have projected lower growth rates." ET. Hallelujah. So, let it be written.   

Will need a foreign Indian.

"The Congress (Party) wrested Karnataka from the BJP with a convincing win on Saturday (06 May), securing a majority on its own with wins in 136 seats in a 224-seat assembly." ET. "Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who covered 50 seats across seven districts in his Bharat Jodo Yatra (Unite India Trek) through Karnataka, framed the performance as victory of the poor over crony capitalists." "Prime Minister Narendra Modi held nine rallies and six roadshows, while home minister Amit Shah held 16 rallies and 15 roadshows after the polls were announced." With this the southern states of India comprised of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, wikipedia, have all rejected the BJP. "A dozen Ministers who held prominent portfolios have lost their seats in the Karnataka Assembly, brought down by the anti-BJP wave that swept through the state in this election." The Hindu. Special pleasure would have come from, "Eight Congress turncoats who joined the BJP and helped it form the government in 2019, lost in the May 10 Karnataka Assembly elections, for which the results were announced." ET. Does this mean that the BJP is in danger of losing the general election which must be held by May 2024 (wikipedia)? Not quite. "Modi, 72, turned up in Karnataka several times during the campaign, blasting Gandhi for coming from what he described as a royal dynasty." It did not work. However, "Voters also tend to cast their ballots differently in national elections than state polls. The BJP has never won a majority in any assembly elections in Karnataka, but it won most of the parliamentary seats in the past four general elections." ET. Also, each of the five southern states is ruled by a completely different political party. Andhra Pradesh is ruled by the YSR Congress Party which won 151 seats out of a total of 175 seats in the assembly in 2019. wikipedia. Kerala is ruled by a coalition of 11 parties and 5 Independents, which have a total of 99 seats out of a total of 140 seats. Of these 99, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or the CPM has 62 seats. The opposition alliance is led by the Congress Party with 21 out of 41 seats. The Tamil Nadu government is formed by the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) with 159 out of a total of 234 seats. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has the largest share with 133 seats. wikipedia. The Telangana Assembly has a total of 120 seats of which the Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) has 103 seats and forms the government. wikipedia. With the opposition divided among so many parties, it seems highly unlikely that they will be able to form a united front against the BJP and it is hard to see them agreeing on who will be the prime minister in case they win. Also there is the Hindi speaking belt also known as the Cow Belt, comprised of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh. baharatpedia. Together these 7 states have a total of 309 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. wikipedia. These states tend to support the BJP slogan of Hindutva. Add the 26 seats of Modi's home state of Gujarat, Modi seems invincible. If the BJP is to be defeated the opposition needs to campaign on social media through someone of Indian origin, who speaks Hindi fluently, and is citizen of a Western country and so cannot be arrested or harassed with false charges in India. And quickly. Difficult, but not impossible.

Need friends to win.

In the US, "The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) sets the federal funds rate," which "is currently 5% to 5.25%." Forbes. "The Congress has assigned the Federal Reserve two jobs," - "Maintain stable prices throughout the economy - a.k.a. keep inflation under control - and support maximum employment." "Over the last fifty years, the federal funds rate has ranged from a low of 0% to a high of 20% as the FOMC attempted to manage the economy." "Bad news - like the fact that the number of homes sold dropped by nearly 20% last year, and hundreds of mortgage bankers lost their jobs - is basically a sign that the plan is working. Tech, finance and crypto, where low rates had fueled growth, have also been hit hard by the change." BBC. However, "Job creation has been surprisingly resilient, despite big layoffs from firms like Amazon, Disney, Ford and Tyson Foods. At 3.4%, the unemployment rate in April was actually lower than it was a year ago - totally bucking most expectations." It was hoped that, "A big splurge in spending in China after Beijing lifted COVID-19 lockdowns will help cushion quarterly results of the world's biggest companies, investors say, even as forecasts suggest the United States and Europe are heading into a corporate recession." Reuters. That is looking increasingly unlikely. "China's huge stimulus after the 2008/09 financial crisis helped the global economy recover, partly due to the Asian country's insatiable appetite for imported raw materials for infrastructure projects. But those past stimulus measures have left China mired in a mountain of debt. In March, the International Monetary Fund warned that Chinese local government debt alone has risen to a record 66 trillion yuan, equivalent to half the country's GDP." DW. "Japan, South Korea, and Singapore have escaped the (middle-income) trap by reskilling their population and becoming innovation driven economies. China has taken a more aggressive approach to sector-oriented investment to improve the economy's overall productivity. But the current geopolitical environment isn't conducive to its plans of escaping the middle-income trap." The Print. "China's increasing focus on its own security and intensifying rivalry with the United States threatens to turn its re-engagement with the world after years of COVID curbs into a new era of isolation from the West, analysts say." Reuters. China has no friends except North Korea and Pakistan, both of which are bankrupt, and the rest of the world sees it as a ruthless aggressor. Earlier, "China launched a series of military exercises, including the firing of ballistic missiles, focused on six danger zones around Taiwan." BBC. In April, a Chinese coast guard ship blocked a Philippine patrol vessel steaming into a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, causing a frightening near-collision in the latest act of Beijing's aggression in the strategic waterway." AP. Will it remain an economic struggle or will there be a military war between China and the West? A weak China will certainly benefit India. Whatever happens, China cannot win. 

Incentive of certainty.

After 15 years of negotiations the G20 came to an agreement to stop base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) by means of which large multinational companies avoided taxes by shifting their profits to tax havens, wrote Pascal Saint-Amans, former director of the Center for Tax Policy and Administration at OECD. In Pillar 1 "Tax cooperation among tax administrations has become the rule, rather than exception, with the end of bank secrecy," and "a global minimum effective corporate 15% tax rate." "Implementing Pillar 2 will remove the tool of tax incentives to attract investments." The Indian government introduced the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme in support of the Make in India policy in which the government is providing an incentive of Rs 1.97 trillion ($28 billion) to 13 sectors to increase domestic manufacturing and reduce imports. wikipedia. But, "India does not need tax incentives to attract investments." "What it needs is tax certainty." So obsessed is the government with tax that it treats every citizen and taxpayer as a criminal. Every citizen must have a card with a 12 digit identification number, based on photograph, iris scans and prints of all 10 digits, called Aadhaar. uidai.gov.in. Every individual, except perhaps a street beggar, must also possess a permanent account number (PAN), which "is a ten-digit unique alphanumeric number issued by the Income Tax Department." incometaxindia.gov.in. To add to the humiliation, both Aadhaar and PAN numbers must be linked, hdfcbank.com, which allows the most intrusive surveillance of every taxpayer, much worse than any criminal will have to tolerate in other countries. Those who can, escape. "A 2018, bank report found that 23,000 Indian millionaires had left the country since 2014. More recently, a Global Wealth Migration Review report revealed that nearly 5,000 millionaires, or 2% of the total number of high net-worth individuals in India left the country in 2020 alone." ET. "Not for the first, Maruti Suzuki chairman RC Bhargava has pointed out how a heavy tax burden holds our automobile industry back." Mint. Only about 30 out of 1,000 people own cars in India compared to 70 in China. While taxes on sports utility vehicles (SUVs) range from 10-20% in most countries, in India it is 50%. "With Tesla deciding not to set up its manufacturing plant in India after a year of discussions," "At least eight foreign automakers - including General Motors, Fiat and Ford Motor - have left India, the world's fourth largest automobile market, since 2017." Strait Times. At least 64,000 jobs were lost. Now MG Motor, owned by Chinese auto giant SAIC is looking to sell its majority stake in its car business in India. ET. In 2014-15, taxes on petroleum products constituted 22.8% of total indirect tax collections. By 2020-21, this had increased to 39%. TOI. From 2014-15 to 2021-22 the government earned an enormous Rs 23.1 trillion from petroleum taxes. Since the cost of transport increases prices of goods and services, the GST collection in April 2023 was a record Rs 1.87 trillion. pib.gov.in. On the one hand, the government taxes industries to oblivion, while, on the other it gives incentives. As a result, Indians cannot afford a higher standard of living. Will the government lower taxes? Hell, no. High taxes are necessary to distribute handouts. And handouts win elections.

A 'Don't Care Fund'.

"A growing number of Gujaratis are seeking asylum in the US, citing political and community-based persecution as their primary grounds. This surprise revelation has come to light during an ongoing investigation by the CID (Crime), Gujarat's premier police agency." Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, who is in charge of security, both hail from the state of Gujarat. If such is the situation in their home state, one can imagine what citizens of other states must be suffering. "A case in point is a recent video showing a US security officer talking to nine Indians who were caught trying to smuggle themselves into the US," and "When asked about their occupation they claimed to be workers affiliated with the Congress Party." Naturally, "Authorities insisted that such claims of political persecution are largely false and cooked up." Indeed. "From the initial interrogation of agents we have arrested, they charge $70,000-$75,000 (Rs 5.74-Rs 6.15 million) for each individual. The agents usually map the road to the US via Canada or through the Turkey-Mexico route," said Deputy Commissioner of Police (Crime) Chaitanya Mandalik. These are large sums of money in India so these people are not escaping poverty. Could they really be escaping persecution? "The Gujarat High Court...ruled that the Prime Minister's Office need not furnish the degree and post-graduate degree certificate of Prime Minister Narendra Modi." HT. Indeed, the court imposed a fine of Rs 25,000 on Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal for daring to ask for proof. The PM CARES Fund has received Rs 535.44 crore (Rs 5.3544 billion) in foreign donations in the last three years. The Wire. But there cannot be any public audit of the Fund. Vinesh Phogat, a female wrestler protesting about sexual harassment by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, told Modi about the mental (but not sexual) harassment and torture our female wrestlers were facing. BBC. No reaction at all from Modi. "But here's the surprising thing: why hasn't Prime Minister Modi intervened? After all, Modi spends a lot of time talking about his commitment to women," wrote Vir Sanghvi. Because, not giving in to demands for justice makes him a strong leader in the eyes of his supporters. Sadly, India has descended to this level of imbecility. Instead, Mr Modi cracked a joke about spelling mistakes in a suicide note by the daughter of a professor. TN. Who cares? The violence in Manipur, where at least 58 people have died and tens of thousands made homeless, has been reported by CNN from the United States. Both Modi and Shah were busy campaigning for the assembly election in the southern state of Karnataka. The Wire. Perhaps, the US should collect donations to a 'Don't Care Fund' for Indians. That may reduce the number of migrants.  

Spoiling the message.

The Kerala Story is a recently released film in Hindi which tracks three women who were converted to Islam through 'love Jihad' and forced to join the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). wikipedia. The film apparently claims that at least 32,000 women in Kerala were similarly converted to Islam and forced to join ISIS. "The Kerala story is doing well at the box office and has managed to cross the Rs 60 crore (Rs 600 million or around $7.3 million) mark." India Today. "According to the US state department's Country Reports on Terrorism 2020 there were '66 known Indian-origin fighters affiliated' with the IS as of November 2020. In September 2021, India's National Investigation Agency said that it had arrested 168 people in connection with 37 cases of 'terror attacks, conspiracy and funding' inspired by the IS's ideology." BBC. "The central issue of the movie, the Kerala Story, is religious conversion of Hindus and Christians to Islam," and "The core content of the movie has a kernel of truth and is not being disputed. There is no accusation of peddling falsehood," wrote Ibn Khaldun Bharati. "There is no denying the fact that conversions happened in Kerala - of girls too!" "Women were not recruited in these missions for combat roles. Jihadi men needed comfort girls, and these women were jihad-prostitutes." "In India, the issue of conversion will remain contentious because, historically it has been a corollary of conquest," and "every such conversion makes the Hindu seethe at the unending series of defeat and humiliation." In 2022, another movie in Hindi, The Kashmir Files, sought to tell the story of the ethnic cleansing of Hindus by Muslim mobs from Indian administered Kashmir. wikipedia. It was submitted to the International Film Festival of India, but was dismissed as a "vulgar, propaganda" movie by the head of the Jury Nadav Lapid. DH. "Form is content, and content is form when it comes to the arts," wrote Lapid. "In the film, the bad guys get portrayed in a typically bad way. They are not human beings but a caricature of bad people." "I say that if you are making such a propaganda movie, at least do it with elegance." Conversions and attacks on Hindus are real. Making them caricatures makes a mockery of their suffering. The irony is that the Christian Church in Kerala is also complaining of 'love jihad'. The Print. Before Christianity there was no concept of conversion and Christians came at least 500 years before Islam. In fact, the problem of Christian missionaries converting Hindus by money or coercion has been recognised since Independence. Outlook. According to Pew Research, "Overall, just 2% of respondents report a different religion than the one in which they were raised, including 0.4% who are converts to Christianity. Christian converts in India mostly are former Hindus," but "0.7% of respondents were raised Hindus and now identify as something else, while 0.8% were raised as something else but now identify as Hindu." There is no doubt that Hindus are denigrated as "heathens" by Christians and "kafir" by Muslims, to be converted or killed by a "True Believer" so that the souls can go to their versions of paradise. However, crass propaganda films to help one political party does not serve the cause of us Hindus. Politics destroys the message.

Fat cats and foreigners.

"The stable growth of a demand-driven Indian economy has attracted sovereign wealth funds and pension funds to invest in the country's infrastructure and growing sectors." FE. "India is the most coveted investment market after the United States for sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, said a study by asset manager Invesco." Because, "India has strong domestic consumption and a growing manufacturing sector. Recent reforms to boost production and manufacturing within the country has also led to a surge in demand." On the other hand, the attraction may be due to, "In India, hegemony is being acquired - or getting awarded - in domestic sectors. India's import tariffs are behind only Sudan, Egypt and Venezuela, giving entrenched domestic groups more bargaining power over 1.4 billion consumers," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Economists Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman have drawn attention to the increasing heft of the '2As' - businessman Mukesh Ambani and Gautam Adani - as evidence of an 'extraordinary concentration of economic power'." "India's biggest conglomerates, which wield enormous pricing power in the retail, resources and telecommunication sectors, are contributing to elevated inflation and should be broken up a former central banker said." ET. "The 'Big 5' consisting of Reliance Group, Tata Group, Aditya Birla Group, Adani Group and Bharti Telecom have grown at the expense of smaller local firms, said Viral Acharya who was Reserve Bank deputy governor between 2017 and 2019. At the same time, the government's 'sky-high tariffs' have shielded these conglomerates from competition by foreign firms." "Margins of several large packaged goods companies picked up sharply in the January to March period...and are expected to improve through the current financial year, industry executives and analysts said. They attributed the improvement to a decline in costs of key commodities, consumers' ability to absorb price hikes in urban markets and premiumisation of select categories." ET. "Banks in India disbursed more loans to home buyers than corporate borrowers in FY23, indicating robust demand for mortgages despite the rise in interest rates. This was a result not just of wooing home loan customers but also because corporate loan pickup was lower than initially expected." Mint. Clearly, there is no reason for companies to increase production when they can increase prices and rake in fat profits. "If it can maintain its momentum, India will overtake Germany as the world's fourth largest economy in 2026, and knock Japan from the number three spot in 2032." CNN. Indeed. While, "Politicians are competing to promise freebies, including in election manifestos, as a budgetary routine. This implies the poor are treated as a bribe/favor receiving vote bank by potential and incumbent elected representatives," wrote Prof MV Sridhara. And there are over 800 million of them. NDTV. For the fat cats, it's jam today. No wonder foreigners want a slice of the pie.