It's only words.

"In its review of the Indian economy released,...the finance ministry said India can become a $7 trillion economy by 2030." "It also said that India is in a better place economically due to the government's nassive infrastructure spending (which grew 3.3 times in the last 10 years), healthy financial sector, strong household financial health, an inflation that is under control and fiscal deficit that is trending lower." However, "To become a $7 trillion economy by 2029-30, experts say that India's nominal GDP must grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9% from 20223-24 to 2029-30," or add $572 billion every year when India has added $190 billion per year in the past decade. "Finance ministry...said the Indian economy has remained resilient amid global headwinds and robust domestic demand," and "inflation has been reined in within 2-6% band because of steps taken by government and RBI." TOI. The average annual inflation in the consumer price index (CPI) has been 6.6% in 2020, 5.1% in 2021, 6.7% in 2022 and 5.7% in 2023. RI. Hardly a triumph. "While India has managed to keep its food inflation at moderate levels and lower than many large economies, the review of the Indian economy...said that the agriculture sector has performed consistently well." FE.  Again, not true. Food inflation has been positive, reaching above 10% in some months since 2020. TE. Since inflation compounds year-on-year, food prices are much higher. "The average Indian household will spend 35.3% of total household budget on food in 2025, increasing by 2.1 percentage points from 33.2% in 2005, Fitch solutions said." The Print. Of course, this will vary widely as the poor, who earn their living from physical labor, need to eat much more than the rich do. Perhaps, in recognition of high food prices, the Prime Minister has announced, "Free food grains for 81.35 crore (813.5 million) beneficiaries for five years," at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion. pib.gov.in. High prices of consumer goods and services are reflected in "India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue for January 2024 has surged to Rs 1.72129 trillion, reflecting an impressive 10.4% Year-on-Year growth." This was the second-highest ever and "With a cumulative gross GST collection of Rs 16.69 trillion for the ten-month period from April 2023 to January 2024, there is a robust 11.6% Y-on-Y growth." ET. Since GST is levied as a percentage of the final price, we have paid 11.6% more in 10 months. "Reuters interviewed nearly 50 families in rural areas... in three Indian states - Uttar Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal - and 85% of them reported stagnant or lower incomes compared to the years before the pandemic. They said inflation was high and was forcing them to borrow money to sustain already reduced consumption." Do people really vote for words rather than their own experience? If so, they must be stupid. Or Bhakts. Same thing, really.    

A big quandary.

"According to Korean legend, a teenage princess from Ayodhya crossed the ocean in a boat some 2,000 years ago, sailed 4,500 kilometers to Korea and married King Kim Suro who founded the Gaya Kingdom in the north Asian country. The princess, Suriratna, then became Queen Heo Hwang-ok." "Many members of the Karak clan visit Ayodhya every year to pay tributes at the memorial of Queen Heo Hwang-ok at the Queen Heo Memorial Park, which was set on the banks of the Surayu river in Ayodhya in 2001 in a partnership between the Uttar Pradesh government and the Gimhae city in South Korea." HT. In Korea, the Family name comes first and is followed by the given name. There are various family names in Korea, such as: Kim, Lee, Pak, Choi, Jung etc." Future Learn. Does that mean that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could well be a descendant from King Kim Suro, which would make him an in-law of Ayodhya? "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has inaugurated a grand temple to Hindu god Ram" in the city of Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh, "But, some Hindu seers and most of the opposition boycotted it, saying Mr Modi was using it for political gain." BBC. Which is absolutely correct because the temple is not yet complete. "With the consecration ceremony of Ram temple done, preparations are being made to restart the stalled works of the temple." "The work on the first floor of the temple is almost completed and now work will start for the second floor." TOI. The word 'prayer' means "a solemn request for help or expression of thanks addressed to God or another deity". Dictionary. The Hindi word 'mannat' means 'an act of prayer or devotion carried out is a wish is fulfilled'. The Tirupati Balaji temple is where Lord Vishnu is said to reside and "is the most popular temple on earth today inviting the maximum number of devotees on any given day"  where "Devotees pray the Lord to fulfill their wishes and upon their wishes getting fulfilled, it is customary practice to offer their donations at the temple Hundi (a promissory note of payment)." TOI. Ram is an incarnation of Lord Vishnu and is said to be "the embodiment of chivalry and virtue". Britannica. It would be no wrong to ask for a boon at the temple, but to consecrate the temple as a political spectacle to win the general election (wikipedia) is sacrilegious. The four Shankaracharyas did not attend the consecration ceremony because the temple was incomplete and proper rituals were not followed. ET. Will Ram punish this act of gross sacrilege? If it goes unpunished, Christians will claim that Hindu gods don't exist and Hindus are idol worshipping heathens (dictionary) and may be punished with death as during the Inquisition in Goa between 1561 and 1812 (wikipedia). And Muslims may claim that Hindus are Kafirs to be killed (Sunnah). If, on the other hand, this act of sacrilege is punished severely, all the devotees who traveled to Ayodhya and piously prayed at the temple will feel that their prayers were void and will have to be repeated. A big quandary for us Hindus.

Both so similar.

"Three American service members were killed and dozens more were injured in an unmanned aerial drone attack on a base in Jordan,..President Biden and the US military said." "US Central Command, which oversees forces in the Middle East, initially put the number of injured at 25," but, "CENTCOM confirmed later...that at least 34 had been injured." CBS. "US forces may have mistaken an enemy drone for an American one and let it pass unchallenged into a desert base in Jordan where it killed three US troops," because "As the enemy drone was flying in at a low altitude, a US drone was returning to the small installation known as Tower 22, according to a preliminary report cited by two officials." AP. Confused between good drone and bad drone. Just as the stupid US policy of good terrorists of President Ronald Reagan shaking hands with the Afghan Mujahideen in the White House (YouTube), followed by the bad terrorists of President George Bush declaring 'Operation Enduring Freedom' against the Afghan Taliban in 2001 (US State Department).   "The United States is reportedly preparing to launch retaliatory attacks against Iran-backed groups," which "According to Pentagon sources, the retaliation would likely begin in the next couple of days and come in waves against a range of targets once the president gave the go ahead." India Today. How civil of them to give an advance warning, giving plenty of time for the terrorists to leave their bases and go home to the bosom of their families. "Iran denied it was behind a drone strike that killed three US troops," but "The Iran-backed militia group Islamic Resistance in Iraq put out a statement...saying it had targeted a US garrison at al-Tanf, just across the Jordan-Syria border from the US Tower 22 base." CBS. Not just the US, Iran's Ayatollahs are old hands at the business of death. In 2013, "For years, unmarked ammunition has been turning up in some of Africa's bloodiest conflict zones - Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ivory Coast. After a six-year investigation, independent arms investigators with Britain-based Conflict Armament Research (CAR) say they have figured out where the ammunition is being made: Iran. And, Sudan is a Muslim country. On 3 January, two explosions at a commemoration of a general killed by the US in 2020 resulted in 103 deaths and 141 injured in Iran. PBS. "Irony abounds. The Islamic State attack targeted mourners at the tomb of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who long oversaw covert operations involving proxy groups such as the Houthis and Hezbollah." "When nations arm extremists, blowback is inevitable," wrote Mihir Sharma. What goes around comes around (Dictionary). Iran may abuse the US as the "Great Satan" (wikipedia), but they seem identical in stupidity. Twins, as it were.  

Illegal work in a war zone.

"Thousands of Indians flocked to a recruitment center...for jobs that would take them to Israel despite the three-month Israeli-Hamas war that is devastating Gaza and threatening to ignite the wider Middle East." "The states of Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have advertised for around 10,000 positions each for construction workers in Israel. Uttar Pradesh has finalized a list of 16,000 to send to Israel next month for a final selection, the state labor minister Anil Rajbhar said." AP. Construction yes, but where? "The international community considers the establishment of Israeli settlements in the Israeli-occupied territories illegal on one of two bases: that they are in violation of Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, or that they are in breach of international declarations." "Israel has consistently argued that the settlements are not in violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention since, in its view, Israeli citizens were neither deported nor transferred to the territories, and they cannot be considered to have become 'occupied territory' since there had been no internationally recognized sovereign prior." wikipedia. On 23 December 2016, "The Security Council reaffirmed this afternoon that Israel's establishment of settlements in Palestinian territory occupied since 1947, including East Jerusalem, had no legal validity, constituting a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the vision of two States living side-by-side in peace and security, within internationally recognized borders." UN. Weasel words. Will Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and their creator Iran sign up to peace and security? On 26 June 2023, even, "The United States...objected to a decision by Israel's nationalist-religious government to approve the construction of around 5,700 additional housing units for Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank."Reuters. Why is the government sending Indian citizens to a war zone where they may be employed in construction, internationally considered illegal, and hence seen as fair game by any Islamist psychopath with a gun? Because, "In the October-December quarter, joblessness among those in the age group of 20 and 24 grew to 44.49% from 43.65% in the previous quarter of July-September 2023." It was 14.33% for the age group of 25-29 compared 13.35% in the previous quarter and "in the 30-34 age group stood at a 10-quarter high of 2.49% as against 2.06% in the previous quarter." The Wire. The sharp drop in unemployment with rising age is because people must do something, however meager the wages, to avoid starvation. "Even though women constitute less than a third of India's workforce, they accounted for two-thirds of its incremental headcount in the last five years. And where did they find employment? In agriculture, despite our total cultivable area declining, labor needs dropping even faster (as a result of mechanization) and farms paying such meagre wages," wrote Prof Himanshu. General election in April-May 2024. wikipedia. Sacrifice the poor goats. Take credit for creating jobs. If anyone is shot make him a hero. Win at any cost. 

Babar did conquer and rule India.

"India's foreign exchange reserves saw a dip of $2.79 billion to $616.14 billion for the week ending on January 19, latest data by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." "According to the Weekly Statistical Supplement released by the RBI, Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs) dropped by $2.6 billion to $545.8 billion." ET. As of 24 January, "In the last seven trading sessions foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have net taken out a little over Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion) (about $3 billion) from the Indian market, CDSL and BAE data showed." TOI. On 28 January, "The frontline indices fell about 1.3% each over the three sessions in the last holiday-truncated week, primarily driven by weakness in the banking sector. In the six sessions since then, foreign funds have sold shares worth Rs 347.66 billion." Mint. "The banking system liquidity deficit breached the Rs 3-trillion mark to hit a 14-year high, pushed by lower government spending, outflow towards tax payments and sluggish growth in deposits. According to the RBI, the liquidity deficit touched Rs 3.34 trillion." Apparently, the RBI "wants liquidity to remain tight to control inflation because tighter liquidity means higher rates and slower credit disbursement." FE. "India's central bank won't consider interest rate cuts unless inflation settles firmly around the 4% target, with policymakers not even discussing the topic yet, Governor Shiktikanta Das said." ET. How resolute! May not be discussing it, but it is the enormous elephant in the room (wikipedia), is it not? Strange that the RBI net bought over $1 trillion between December 2019 and September 2023 (Forbes), reaching a record high of $642.453 billion in the week ended 3 September (BS). When the RBI buys dollars it provides rupees to banks, thereby increasing liquidity ET. When banks are flush with cash lending rates fall and encourage consumption. Higher consumption may lead to higher prices. So, the RBI was increasing liquidity from December 2019 even as the consumer price index (CPI) inflation jumped to 7.4% in the same month, having started to rise from 4% in September. RI. At the same time the RBI was reducing interest rate from 5.15% in October 2019, when inflation was beginning to rise, to 4.0% in May 2020 and held it at that rate for a full 24 months till May 2022. Forbes. As prices keep rising it means that the rupee is buying less. This was reflected in the exchange rate of the rupee which fell from 72.15 to the dollar 2019 to 83.10 to one dollar on 10 January 2024. Forbes. A weak rupee increases the price of imports and results in higher inflation. Thus, by its actions, or lack thereof, the RBI was deliberately stoking inflation. Inflation helps the government by increasing tax collections and reduces the value of its debt. Economics Help. Now the Governor declares his determination to bring inflation down to 4%. The general election is to be held between April and May 2024 (wikipedia) and high prices breed dissatisfaction with the government. All civil servants have to swear allegiance to India and the Constitution of India, and not to the government or any political party. dopt.gov.in. Demolishing Babri Masjid in 1992 (Britannica) will never erase the fact that Babar conquered and ruled India till his death (wikipedia). Nothing changes.

Not just Canada.

"A Czech appeals court has ruled that Prague can extradite to the United States an Indian man accused by the US of involvement in an unsuccessful plot to kill a Sikh separatist on American soil, the Justice Ministry said on Friday. A final decision on the extradition of Nikhil Gupta, 52, will be in the hands of Justice Minister Pavel Blazek once the ruling is delivered to all parties in the case, a ministry spokesperson told Reuters." Next door to the US, "India-Canada diplomatic battle is all set to intensify as Canada's federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference will scrutinize claims that India allegedly intervened in its last two general elections, Canada-based CTV News reported." "The commissioner of the probe has been entrusted with investigating any meddling in the 2019 and 2021 elections by China, Russia, and other state and non-state entities." ET. "Many see targeting India as a meddler in elections as a ploy by the Trudeau government to deflect attention from the rampant Chinese interference which has been in favor of Trudeau's Liberal Party." "By accusing Indian agencies of killing Nijjar last year, Trudeau managed to launch an issue that took the Canadians' attention off his own troubles." ET. "Following a Canadian media report that law enforcement has tracked down two persons connected to the murder of pro-Khalistan figure Hardeep Singh Nijjar, India has said it will 'look into' whatever 'specific and relevant information' is shared with New Delhi." HT. While Trudeau has been abused and insulted by Indians, with one former Indian diplomat alleging that  he was 'high on drugs' and that his plane was 'full of cocaine' during his visit to India for the G20 Summit (Mint), a US indictment revealed that "the White House was aware of the US investigation into the murder-for-hire plot before Trudeau publicly addressed it after the G20 summit in India" (DH). A golden opportunity for Pakistan to stir the pot. "Pakistan said...it had 'credible evidence' linking Indian agents to the killings of two Pakistani citizens on Pakistani soil." ET. Naturally, "Pakistan's latest attempt at spreading false and malicious anti-India propaganda is baseless and absurd," slammed India's External Affairs Ministry. Zee. Can't take credit for them either before the election. Infuriating. Delay in issuing a visa to English cricketer of Pakistani descent Shoaib Bashir for the ongoing Test series raised the hackles of the British government. HT. "France has raised concerns with India regarding a notice served by the home ministry to French journalist Vanessa Dougnac, who has been based in India for more than two decades." TOI.  "The European Parliament has adopted a resolution on EU-India relations just months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections which is critical of India's relations with Russia and 'increasing nationalistic rhetoric'." TOI. None of these nations should even imagine levying sanctions on India because Mr Modi will use that to win a huge majority in the election. Instead targeted sanctions on individual politicians and officials, while praising Mr Modi, may prompt some rats to desert the ship. Be subtle. Softly, softly catchee monkey.  

An Indian Magna Carta.

As the general election (wikipedia) approaches rapidly, "Urban Indians are increasingly concerned about rising inflation and job security, including fears of layoffs, as per the Kantar India Union Budget Survey 2024." Mint. "57% of Indians are worried about rising inflation, a significant increase from 27% in 2023" and "one in three Indians anxious about potential layoffs". Fun and games have started already. "Delhi's Chief Electoral Officer has issued a clarification on the date of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. Confusion arose, after a notification by the Election Commission of India had informed 'tentatively given the Poll Day as April 16, 2024...for the purpose of reference and to calculate Start and End dates in the Election Planner'." Mint. Political parties are under starters orders (Encyclopedia) and operation 'Neutralise the Opposition' may begin. "Besides the orchestrated carnival around the inauguration of the Ram temple at Ayodhya, there is speculation in political circles that two chief ministers and a deputy chief minister may soon be arrested," wrote Bharat Bhushan. "The recent arrests of state government ministers in Delhi and Tamil Nadu have not been successful in getting any relief from the courts." Taxes on goods and services are a very big reason for rising prices. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was supposed to reduce taxes paid by Indian consumers by getting rid of cascading effects of various taxes imposed by the central and state governments but instead it seems to have become a temptation to maintain a high rate of consumer price index (CPI) inflation to augment government revenue. From September 2019, when it was exactly at 4.0%, till December 2023 (RI), the CPI inflation rate has been consistently higher than the government target of 4% (ET). Consequently, GST collections have risen from Rs 215.72 billion in July 2017, which was the starting month, to a high of Rs 1.87 trillion in April 2023. wikipedia. From an annual average of Rs 822.94 billion in 2017-18 it has skyrocketed to an expected Rs 1.664 trillion in 2023-24 (1 April-31 March). The other direct contributor to rising prices are the rising tolls charged on so-called national highways which are little more than ordinary 4-lane roads, "rising from Rs 177.59 billion in 2015-16 to Rs 480.28 billion in 2022-23" and is expected to reach Rs 1.3 trillion in 2030. The number of toll plazas shot up from 145 in 2014-15 to 959. Mint. Tolls are charged on all trucks which add to the cost of all goods, including food articles. We are already paying huge taxes on cars and fuel. GST, plus cess, on cars rises from a total of 29% to an extortionate 50%. SIAM. In addition, states levy road taxes which vary from state to state. For individuals, Road Tax in Delhi varies from 5% to 12.5%. CreditMantri  "Petrol tax in India consists of 55% of petrol's retailing price while diesel tax is 50% of the fuel's retail value." Cleartax. Just because they have been elected by whatever means politicians should not have the right to do whatever they want. Movement from one part of the country to another is our fundamental right. We need a Bill of Rights for Indian citizens, as in the US, as well as an Indian Magna Carta (wikipedia) which lays down a ceiling on what taxes the government can impose. Respect.

We Indians know better.

"In a year marked by heightened election tensions globally, the World Economic Forum's (WEF) 2024 Global Risks Report has stirred controversy by ranking India as the No. 1 country most susceptible to misinformation and disinformation. The report, based on the insights of 1,490 experts, has raised eyebrows in India where citizens are expressing discontent over the portrayal of their nation as a hotspot for deceptive information." Asianet. Why express discontent when, "The Press Council of India...issued an advisory asking print media organizations to refrain from publishing content that may be false or manipulated or which has the potential to disturb communal harmony." TOI. In December 2023, "Apple's warning to several opposition leaders and journalists about potential hacking attempt on their iPhone by 'state sponsored attackers' prompted the Narendra Modi government to quickly demand the US firm soften its message, the Washington Post reported." HT. Union Minister of State for Information and Technology Rajeev Chandrashekhar "dismissed the report as containing 'half facts and embellishments'." Really? We Indians know better. "In India, the Pegasus Project investigations alleged that the Pegasus spyware was used on ministers, opposition leaders, political strategists and tacticians, journalists, minority leaders, Supreme Court judges, religious leaders, administrators like Election Commissioners and heads of Central Bureau of Investigation. (CBI)." wikipedia. The matter sent to the Supreme Court but, "India's Supreme Court has said that the federal government led by prime minister Narendra Modi did not cooperate in the probe into the use of Israeli NSO group spyware Pegasus." Indepenedent. Guilty as charged. In an interview, the ex-Governor of Jammu & Kashmir revealed that the suicide car bomb attack on a convoy of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) troops on 14 February 2019 was due to "incompetence and laparvahi (carelessness)" by the home ministry as "the CRPF had asked for aircraft to transport its jawans (soldiers) but was refused by the Union home ministry." The Wire. Malik was told to keep quiet by Mr Modi. In July 2023, Director of International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) Prof KS James was suspended by the Union Health Ministry because they were unhappy with his data set. The Wire. According to the WHO, at least 4.7 million Indians died of Covid but the Indian government said that only 4,81,000 died. VOA. But, we Indians witnessed dead bodies floating down the holy Ganga River (India Today), and such was the number of the dead at crematoriums that pyres were "set up in parking lots, empty grounds and even green belts abutting some major facilities (TOI)." And, the Gujarat High Court fined Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal Rs 25,000 for asking to see the original of Mr Modi's MA degree certificate. TOI. Lobotomised Bhakts, who are disciples of Mr Modi may be incensed with the WEF report. But, we Indians know better.

Fines or taxes? Choose.

Traffic fines in Delhi are repressive and usurious, varying from Rs 500 to Rs 25,000. mycarhelpline. "Traffic police in Mumbai have collected Rs 5.79 billion in penalties since the introduction of the e-challan system in 2019. HT. In Delhi's neighboring city of Gurgaon, "Data by traffic police shows that cops issued around 810,000 challans (tickets) and collected around Rs 179 million in penalties for violations between January and June 2023," TOI. No country in the world forces motorists to get pollution certificates every few months or pay a fine of Rs 10,000, as is the rule in Delhi. CNBC. To force people to pay their fines owners are to be blacklisted which would stop them from selling their vehicles, getting insurance or pollution checks. This comes from a socialist mindset wherein anyone owning a car is a running dog of capitalism and should be fined out of existence. With the highest average salary in India being Rs 20,730 per month in Uttar Pradesh (Forbes), these fines are more than the monthly income of most people and they would have to cut down on essentials to be able to drive. This would leave roads clear for our masters, who are designated as VIPs, or Very Important Persons, or even VVIPs, or Very Very Important Persons, who can then drive uninterrupted with their retinue of security, wrote Prabhat Kishore. All at taxpayer, expense of course. The problem is that Delhi is one of the most polluted cities in the world. On 3 November, "New Delhi again topped a real-time list of the world's most polluted cities complied by Swiss group IQAir, which put the Indian capital's AQI at 640 in the 'hazardous' category,..followed by 335 in the Pakistani city of Lahore." Reuters. This is totally unacceptable. Our masters are having to breathe this dirty air which is worse than in Pakistan. A study by Chandra Bhushan and colleagues found that "India emits approximately 5.2 million tonnes of PM2.5 annually," of which, "Astonishingly, 82% of this comes from biomass burning and industrial activities." Cooking with firewood, dung cakes, agro-residues and charcoal contributes 38.7%, industry contributes 29%, burning crop residue 7%, and heating in winter by burning combustible garbage make up most of the pollution. So why the focus on cars? Because targeting biomass burning or industry will affect poor people who make up the vote bank (wikipedia). The only way to eliminate vehicular exhausts is to go electric. However, electric cars need to be charged and 53% of electricity was generated from coal in 2020-21. A typical lithium battery in an electric car weighs 450 kg and contains 11 kg of lithium, 14 kg of cobalt, 27 kg of nickel, 40 kg of copper, and 50 kg of graphite, plus 181 kg of steel, aluminium and plastics, wrote Vivek Kaul. Extracting all those metals will need enormous amounts of fossil fuel. India consumed 1027.92 million tonne of coal in 2021-22. pib.gov.in. The government collects 28% GST on cars (siam.in) and another 4% to 16% in road tax (creditmantri). If they penalise cars to extinction they will lose all the taxes. Time to choose.

Iran is the brain.

"Iran launched attacks in Pakistan...targeting what it described as bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl in the border town of Panjgur in Balochistan, the Iranian state media reported, prompting strong condemnation from Islamabad." Dawn. In retaliation, "Pakistan has launched missile strikes into Iran, killing nine people, after Iran carried out strikes in Pakistan." BBC. A few days back, "Iran-backed militants launched ballistic missiles at a base housing US troops in Iraq, causing one Iraqi and possible American casualties, the US Central Command said." TOI. How can militants, essentially a bunch of sadistic thugs, get hold of ballistic missiles? Clearly they were supplied by Iran. Iran has developed a number of proxy forces throughout the Middle East. "Acting through proxies is a method of eluding responsibility; for instance, Hamas's October 2023 assault on Israel showed signs of coordination with Iran, and amid the ensuing Israel-Hamas war, US officials blamed suspected proxy forces of Iran for attacks that injured dozens of troops on US military bases in Iraq and Syria. Washington also said support from Tehran enabled Yemen's rebel Houthi movement to fire missiles toward Israel and attack commercial ships with alleged Israeli ties in the Red Sea." CFR. On 16 January, US Navy Seals "boarded a traditional dhow sailing vessel near the coast of Somalia in international waters of the Arabian Sea, seizing Iranian-made ballistic missile and cruise missile components, including propulsion, guidance, and warheads for Houthi medium range ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles, according to a statement from US Central Command." VOA. On the same day, "With its strikes in Syria and Iraq, Iran has sought to 'flex its muscles' in the fallout of the Israeli-Hamas war without provoking a confrontation with the United States, analysts said." "The official IRNA news agency said the Syria attack was the 'longest missile launch by Iran with a range of 1,200 kilometers (750 miles)' that can be interpreted as a direct message to Israel." ET. In May 2020, "Iran's Supreme Leader...called Israel a 'cancerous tumor' that 'will undoubtedly be uprooted and destroyed' in an annual speech in support of Palestinians." AP. "In December, "A drone attack by an Iran-affiliated terrorist group on a military base in Iraq...left three US service members wounded, the Pentagon said, and prompted President Biden to order retaliatory strikes." CBS. So how far would Iran go? "Iran's nuclear program has reached the point at which, within three weeks, Iran might be able to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons." Iran Watch. If the Houthis or Hamas are in danger of being defeated, will Iran supply them with nuclear warheads for their missiles? If a rogue state like China supplies Iranian proxies like Hezbollah with low-grade nuclear weapons will the US or Israel respond with nuclear strikes of their own? In 2015, "The White House...denied a Kuwaiti report that US President Barack Obama had threatened to shoot down Israeli jets heading toward Iran." Times of Israel. A sizable number of Democrats are against Israel (The Hill) and Biden was Vice President to Obama. Can Iran stop its proxies from a suicide mission? Will Israel retaliate with its own nuclear weapons? Will China worsen the situation to divert the US and attack Taiwan? And, Biden is in charge till November.    

Banknotes and SMS money.

"External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar drew an analogy while describing the country's growth in digital public infrastructure and said that the number of cashless transactions the United States does in three years, India does in a month." Cashless transactions make it extremely easy to surveil unsuspecting citizens but whether it makes us any wealthier is highly questionable. It also means that the rupee is unlikely to replace the dollar for trading in the near future, if ever. "Although the amount can't be precisely tracked, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors that foreigners held $950 billion in US banknotes at the end of the first quarter of 2021, or about 45% of all Federal Reserve notes outstanding, including two-thirds of all $100 bills. Overall holdings of US currency have grown rapidly, however, and overseas holdings of Federal Reserve notes would now be worth $1.1 trillion if such holdings are still half of all US currency." St Louis FRED. Foreign holdings of US currency is an interest-free loan to the US. Last month, "The International Monetary Fund has reclassified India's 'de facto' exchange rate regime to 'stabilized arrangement' from 'floating' for December 2022 to October 2023 after an article IV review, with the central bank pushing back against the move." ET. In IMF-speak, it means that the Fund suspects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) of controlling the rupee against other currencies because the rupee traded between Rs 80.88 and Rs 83.42 to the US dollar between those dates. The RBI rejected the IMF's charge saying it merely manages exchange-rate volatility and does not target a particular level for the rupee. While the rupee moved in a band of 2.8% against the dollar, the euro-dollar rate moved in a band of 7.3%. The annualized daily volatility "For the rupee, it was 3.4%, while for the dollar, it was 6.7%," wrote Madan Sabnavis. "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that India has embarked on internationalisation of the rupee because dependence on one currency for global trade was risky and subjected the country to currency volatility. The governor also said that the central bank has managed to achieve currency stability." TOI. Maybe, that is what the IMF was talking about. "While some chinks seem have appeared in the dollar's armor, it is safe to say that there is still no alternative." "As of December 2022, more than 58% of the global foreign exchange reserves were in dollars." Euro reserves peaked at 28% in September 2009. "As of December 2022, they stood at 20.5%," wrote Vivek Kaul. if the rupee is international, foreign banks and funds would buy and sell the currency. Not only will the RBI lose control of currency trading, it might remember how George Soros made $1 billion in 1992 by short selling the pound sterling against the bank of England. Investopedia. Mr Jaishankar boasts that India is cashless. You can hold dollar notes, digital is just a number. The US will continue to print dollars. That is its strength.

It's all unofficial.

"The Centre would aim for a lower deficit in the 2024-25 fiscal year despite increasing capital expenditure to a record level in the Union Budget 2024, as per a Reuters poll of economists." "The government is aiming to narrow the fiscal deficit to 4.50% of GDP by the end of the 2025-26 fiscal year (FY) from 5.90% in the current year to the end of March." Should be very easy. "India's net direct tax collection increased 19% on an annual basis to Rs 14.70 trillion till January 11, the official government data showed." "The growth rate in gross Corporate Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT) is 8.32% and 26.11% respectively." ET. "India's GST collections rose 10.28% to reach Rs 1.65 trillion in December, the Finance Ministry announced." It was 13% higher than GST collections in December last year. ET. "The growth rate of GST has been phenomenal in terms of collections which have grown from Rs 7.19 trillion in FY 2017-18 (from July 2017) to Rs 18.10 trillion in FY 2022-23." TOI. This miracle has been achieved through: 1. Repression. "With recent changes in the input tax credit (ITC) provisions, the credit of recipient has been restricted due to various non-compliance on part of the supplier." "Such stringent restrictions are levied on the recipient irrespective of the genuineness on the transactions undertaken by them. This results in a huge blockage of working capital and high working capital cost." GST was supposed to eliminate cascading taxes, reduce inflation and simplify the process. cleartax. Instead, GST has increased the cost of compliance and raised prices. 2. Inflation. GST collections have benefited hugely from inflation, which it is causing in part. The average rate of inflation of the consumer price index (CPI) in calendar years 2017 to 2019 was below 4%. This jumped to 6.6% in 2020 and has stayed way above 4% since then. RI. Since GST is a consumption tax, the higher the price the higher the collection. Inflation helps the government. Higher inflation increases nominal tax revenues by increasing VAT (GST) collections, reduces the real value of government debt and enables the government to freeze income tax thresholds so more workers pay higher taxes. Economics Help. "For consumers, inflation is an added 'tax' to the price they pay for everything.., a tax that is just not officially levied by the government. In India's deeply stratified society, low-income households struggle even more from 'inflation tax'," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan. "When inflation is still above 5.5%, in fact closer to 6%, our monetary policy has to remain actively disinflationary," said Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das at the highly exclusive and expensive resort of Davos in Switzerland. And so, the RBI "opted to maintain the repo rate at 6.5% for the fifth consecutive time" at its meeting in December 2023. ET. Junkets are expensive. Stop complaining.

Gods can bless. Or curse.

"While India has come up from being the 11th largest economy of the world to being the fifth largest over last decade, as Narendra Modi becomes Prime Minister for the third consecutive term, India will climb the ladder up to the third position within the next five years, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said." "India has emerged as the Vishwa Mitra (World's Friend) over the years." Maldives does not agree. "The Maldives under pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu has signed a deal with Turkey to buy drones to patrol its exclusive economic zone waters. So far, New Delhi and Male jointly patrolled this region in the Indian Ocean." BT. Neither does Canada. "Study permits for Indians aspiring to pursue an education in Canada nose-dived in the Oct-Dec 2023 quarter to 14,910, an 86% drop from the 110,000 during the same months in 2022." TOI. To make sure of his election victory, "Ornate gifts have started arriving in the Indian city of Ayodhya as the country's Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to inaugurate a vast Hindu temple that he hopes will firm his chances for a rare third election win in just a few months' time." CNN. "Top spiritual leaders of Sanatan Hindu Dharma, the four Shankaracharyas, have decided to skip the 'pran pratistha' (consecrations) ceremony of the idol of Lord Ram in Ayodhya on January 22, even as three of them backed the ceremony while voicing their opposition to the rituals being followed." India Today. "The title 'Shankaracharya' is held by the heads of four cardinal monasteries established by the 8th century Hindu philosopher Adi Shankara." They are refusing to attend because of, "concerns about deviations from traditional Hindu rituals and procedures", "They believe the temple construction is not yet complete" and hence, "the event has become overly politicised, losing its spiritual essence." Who cares about Hindus or rituals when the general election has to be held by May 2024  (wikipedia)? Mr Modi absolutely must win the election because of his government's use of investigative agencies against opposition leaders (The Wire) and "Less than 3% of the arrests made under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) between 2015 and 2020 have resulted in convictions, the People's Union of Civil Liberties said." "Out of the 8,371 persons arrested under the stringent law, only 235 were convicted in the five-year period, the report said, citing data from the National Crime Record Bureau." Scroll. The courts have helped. The Supreme Court denied bail to Manish Sisodia of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi on "the criminal charge of criminal conspiracy to benefit private parties in the excise policy case". India Today. Whereas, convicted murderer and rapist Dera Sacha Sauda preacher Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh has been repeatedly released on parole or furlough by the BJP government of Haryana. TOI. Opposition parties are waiting to settle scores and many hundreds are depending on Mr Modi to save their skins by winning the election. Just as long as they remember that just as our gods can bless they can also give "shaap" which means a 'curse' (shabdkosh). After all, Ram came on earth to fulfill a 'shaap' on Ravana. IMGB. Is this Lord Ram's second visit?

Multidimensional cheerleaders.

 "24.82 crore (248.2 million) people escaped multidimensional poverty in last nine years. Findings of NITI Aayog's Discussion Paper 'Multidimensional Poverty in India since 2005-06' give credit for this remarkable achievement to significant initiatives of the government to address all dimensions of poverty between 2013-14 to 2022-23." pib.gov.in. Mr Modi grabbed power in the 2014 general election (wikipedia), so whether the paper passes the smell test (dictionary) is debatable. NITI Aayog uses 12 indicators like 'health, schooling, sanitation and even bank accounts," wrote Ajit Ranade. Welfare spending and direct benefit transfers can be counted as income for the recipients but "current research is blindfolded by the absence of household consumption data". In fact, "Private final consumer expenditure (PFCE) growth is estimated tumbling to 4.4% this year from 7.5% in FY23," and even this has been at the cost of a "steep drawdown of household financial savings - to 5.1% of GDP in FY23, from 7.2%, in FY22 - and a rapid increase in financial liabilities to 5.8% of GDP in FY23 from 3.8% the year before." FE. NITI Aayog seems to have completely ignored the effects of Covid. In 2020, "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into one of the strictest lockdowns." HT. This was extended 4 times with gradual relaxations each time. wikipedia. In 2021, at least 4.7 million people died of Covid according to the WHO (ET) but the number could be far higher. "Two years of covid-19 pandemic led to widespread job losses and a fall in incomes for millions of workers. 2022-23 was the first full year of recovery after covid-19." "The All-India per capita income for 2022-23 was Rs 1.15 lakh per year. In real terms (adjusted for higher prices of goods and services), that is 6.7% higher than in 2019-20, the last pre-covid year." Mint. "Unemployment in 2022-23 are higher than they were a decade ago for all states, except Delhi and West Bengal." "Regular workers in urban areas earned 38% more than such workers in rural areas in 2017-18. This gap is now 45%." This is because, "Of the estimated growth of 105 million in rural workers since 2017-18, 40 million has come from unpaid work and 43 million from own account self-employed workers," wrote Abhishek Jha. The state of education is dire. "Nearly 43% of children in the 14-18 age group cannot read sentences in English, while among their rural counterparts, 25% struggle to read a Class 2 level text in their respective regional language, shows the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2023." TOI. NITI Aayog is a public sector body (wikipedia), paid for by the taxpayer. It should not be acting as cheerleaders (google) for the government. A little dignity and self-respect would make it credible. Maybe that's why they were picked.

Bumbling Joe.

On 15 January, "Houthi rebel fired a missile that struck a US-owned ship...just off the coast of Yemen in the Gulf of Aden," as "The attack on the Gibraltar Eagle, later claimed by Houthis, further escalates tensions gripping the Red Sea after American-led strikes on the rebels." "On Jan. 14 at approximately 4.45 pm (Sanaa time), an anti-ship cruise missile was fired from Iranian-backed Houthi militant areas of Yemen towards USS Laboon (DDG 58), which was operating in the Southern Red Sea. The missile was shot down in vicinity of the coast of Hudaydah by US fighter aircraft." US Centcom. This was in retaliation as, "US and British warplanes, ships and submarines launched dozens of air strikes across Yemen against Houthi forces for months of attacks on Red Sea shipping that the Iran-backed fighters cast as a response to the war in Gaza." Reuters. Have the Houthis been weakened by these strikes and are they cowering in fear? "A US-owned ship in the Gulf of Aden came under attack yesterday from a bomb-carrying drone launched by Yemen's Houthi rebels, officials said. The attack on Genco Picardy represented the second in recent days targeting vessels directly linked to America." ABC. Yemen has always lived on charity. "Yemen has long been one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and is now one of the world's worst humanitarian crises." World Bank. "A staggering 16.2 million people require urgent emergency assistance because of food insecurity and even malnutrition." So, how can the Houthis, who are basically a gang of criminals, challenge the mighty US? Because in February 2021, "The Biden administration officially lifted the designation of the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen as a global terrorist organization." PBS. This was just one month after the Trump administration labeled the Houthis as a "foreign terrorist organization". PBS. The Red Sea leads from the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal which can "accommodate over 60% of the total world fleet of tankers when fully loaded, and over 90% of bulk carriers." Egypt earned a record $9.4 billion in the year to June from tolls on the canal. An oil tanker from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam travels 6,436 nautical miles through the canal but has to travel 11,169 nautical miles around Southern Africa. Reuters. Unable to tackle the crisis, "The US State Department yesterday designated the Iranian-backed, Yemen-based Houthi rebels as specially designated global terrorists, or SDGT's, in an effort to deter further attacks on commercial ships traversing the Red Sea." CNBC. Who is supplying the Houthis? Iran, of course. In February 2022, "President Joe Biden's administration...restored sanctions waivers to Iran to allow international nuclear cooperation projects." Reuters. One week back, Iran seized an 'American' ship off the coast of Oman. HT. Clearly, Biden is totally incompetent and the Democrat Party is a danger to the whole world. The presidential election is on 5 November 2024, still too far. wikipedia. We can only hope the Americans have the sense to dump this bunch of birdbrains into the bin. For the sake of the world.     

Enjoy Davos.

"India's growth prospects are very good, and the country's banking sector has seen a remarkable recovery, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said," at the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland. Although delegates who are invited can attend for free, a business class ticket to Zurich will cost Rs 150,000-250,000. google.com. The cost of renting a chalet can run to $100,000 for a week. dailyhunt. "India's economy is likely to surpass USD 4 trillion in 2024-25 and further escalate to USD 5 trillion according to a PHDCCI report." ET. "In a dynamic shift, India is witnessing a rapid rise in its 'affluent' consumer cohort, constituting approximately 4% of the working-age population with a per capita income exceeding US $10,000." "The report added that if current trends persist, 'Affluent India' is anticipated to expand to approximately 100 consumers by 2027." TN. $10,000 converts to Rs 830,000 at today's conversion rate (xe.com) which would be totally inadequate even today for a family of three living in rented accommodation in a small town with one child going to a private school. With the total population at 1,436 million (worldometer), 100 million would be only around 7% of the population. However, 100 million is more than the total population of Germany, so it may be something to boast about. The number of 'Affluent' Indians may be growing, but "Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) growth is tumbling to 4.4% this year from from 7.5% in FY23, and one-third its growth rate at the recovery peak in FT22, 11.2%.The successive, steep slide is alarming - it is unusual that private consumer spending accounts for just 34% of the 7.3% GDP growth, a big slippage from the respective 61 and 72% of the preceding two years, and almost half the pre-pandemic 58.6% average." FE. And so, "Net foreign investment in the year through September  fell to $13 billion, according to calculations from HSBC Holdings Plc., down from $38 billion in the same period a year earlier." ET. "The India government's chief economic advisor called in a paper...for reforms to the way credit ratings agencies assign sovereign ratings, saying their present methodologies are biased towards advanced countries." Reuters. Even so, "Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's Long-Term Foreign- Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at BBB- with a Stable Outlook." This is the lowest investment grade, just one notch above junk rating. "Weak public finances - illustrated by high deficits, debt and interest/ revenue ratio compared with peers - continue to be the largest constraint for the rating." Rating agencies are American and their ratings also serve to warn US businesses of investing in India. "Goods and services (GST) authorities have sent demand notices of Rs 1.45 trillion to about 1,500 businesses in December" for the financial year 2017-18 because there is a time limit of 5 years on such demands. ET. Surely, 5 years is long enough to sort out any discrepancy and a lot of these demands may be unnecessary? No use boasting at Davos. Foreigners are no fools. However, it must be a fantastic holiday at taxpayer expense. Enjoy.      

Powerless muscles.

About a week back, "A row erupted after a Maldivian political leader tweeted controversial remarks mocking Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Lakshadweep archipelago." "The move is great. However, the idea of competing with us is delusional. The permanent smell in the rooms will be the biggest downfall," he said. India Today. This remark was personal, and not from the Maldives government, and so should have been ignored, but nowadays, any perceived criticism of Dear Leader leads to howls of rage from an army of brainless Bhakts, who are called Bhakts (believers) "because of their uncritical acceptance of information received on digital media as gospel truths (DH). "The day started with senior MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) officials discussing the current situation in ties with Maldives High Commissioner Ibrahim Shaheeb, underlining its position that it found the ministers' behavior unacceptable." TOI. This immediately converted a silly comment into a diplomatic issue forcing the Maldives government to defend itself. In retaliation, the Maldives foreign ministry summoned the Indian High Commissioner. BT. "We may be small, but that doesn't give you the license to bully us," President Mohamed Muizzu of the Maldives told journalists." "We aren't in anyone's backyard. We are an independent and sovereign state." DH. Muizzu is known to be pro-China. Back from his state visit to China, Muizzu issued a deadline of 15th March for the withdrawal of the 88 Indian troops stationed in the Maldives (NDTV) and also announced that the hydrography agreement with India will not be renewed on 7 June 2024 (TNIE). Maldives is an archipelago southeast of Kerala in the Indian Ocean. Maps. India has agreed to fast-track the withdrawal of our military personnel. ANI. China already owns the Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka and if it can establish a base on the Maldives it can control the whole of the Indian Ocean and interfere with Indian shipping. Coercive diplomacy is unproductive. "When India was upset with the newly adopted Nepal Constitution in September 2015, a harsh six-month blockade was imposed on a hapless, landlocked country which caused immense suffering. As a result, the Chinese footprint in Nepal increased dramatically," wrote Bharat Bhushan. Mr Modi's muscular foreign policy has taken friend and foe aback and established India as a power on the world stage, admired Shishir Gupta. While still breathing fire at Canada for its tolerance of Khalistan supporters, India has opened 3 more centers for issuing visas in Canada, and has dismantled a memorial to Major Shaitan Singh at Rezang La Pass where Major Singh and 113 men fought to the death against overwhelming numbers of Chinese troops in 1962. The Telegraph. If that is muscular, the muscles are paralysed. Bullying is no policy. Made us much weaker.        

Principle, friendship and oil.

Two days back, "US and British warplanes, ships and submarines launched dozens of air strikes across Yemen against Houthi forces in retaliation for months of attacks on Red Sea shipping that the Iran backed fighters cast as a response to the war on Gaza." "The US military said 60 targets in 28 locations had been hit, using 150 munitions." Reuters. Houthis are used to airstrikes. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia has been bombing Houthis in Yemen since 2015, Yemeni ports have been blockaded to prevent Iran supplying arms to the Houthis and ground offensives launched to regain lost ground. wikipedia. The economic consequences have been catastrophic. "The UN estimates that 60% of the estimated 377,000 deaths in Yemen between 2015 and the beginning of 2022 were the result of indirect causes like food insecurity and lack of accessible health services. Two-thirds of the population, or 21.6 million Yemenis, remain in need of dire assistance." cfr.org. "On 14 September 2019, drones were used to attack oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia." wikipedia. It took hours to put out the resulting fire and repairs took weeks. On 11 March 2022, Houthis attacked a refinery in the Saudi capital Riyadh using three Samadh-3 drones causing a small fire that did not result in any casualties or injuries. Reuters. Following the airstrikes, "President Biden says the US has delivered a 'private message' to Iran about the Houthis in Yemen after the US carried out a second strike on the group." "Iran denies involvement in attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea." BBC. "Iran on Thursday (11 January) said it has seized an 'American' ship off the coast of Oman. According to the  Iranian media, the ship was used by the United States for stealing its oil last year." HT. So, what was in the "private message"? A warning to Iran not to get involved or a declaration of love? Surprisingly, "South Africa accused Israel of genocide in an unprecedented case at the United Nations' top court, saying the country was 'intent on destroying the Palestinians in Gaza' and calling for the court to order a halt to Israel's military campaign." CNN. South Africa is at the southern tip of the African continent, thousands of miles away from the conflict, and may even be gaining from the shipping diverted round the Cape of Good Hope and is not Islamic. So why the assault on Israel? Is it because of its own history of apartheid, the friendship between Nelson Mandela and Yasser Arafat or the hope of cheaper oil from Arab countries? FP. After all, "Electricity supply shortages have constrained South Africa's growth for several years. Rolling scheduled power cuts (load-shedding) started in 2007 and have intensified exponentially, reaching 9 hours daily in 2022." World Bank. Meanwhile, "Hamas released a chilling video featuring three Israeli hostages: Noa Argamani, Yossi Sharabi and Ital Svirsky, who were abducted during the Supernova rave attack." TOI. All Hamas has to do is to release all the hostages unharmed and Israel will be forced to stop its bombing. Israel will still come after Hamas fighters but the Palestinian civilians will be safe. But Hamas cowards continue to hide behind hostages. So, Hamas is responsible for the genocide in Gaza. South Africa should seek the truth. Instead of oil.  

The free food casino.

"India's sizzling stock rally just got hotter on Friday (12 January) with Sensex and Nifty breaking its previous all-time high touched on the New Year day. Sensex ended the day with a gain of 847 points at 72,568 points while Nifty crossed the 21,900 level led by gains in heavyweights TCS and Infosys." "In dollar terms, the Indian stock market was near the $4.5 trillion and looks poised to take over Hong Kong as the world's fourth largest hub of equities." ET. Markets are expected to rise even further as, "Led by strong topline and improved profitability, at least 23 companies are likely to see their profits more than doubling year-on-year (YoY) in the December quarter, according to the estimates given by Motilal Oswal Financial Services." ET. Even though, "Private final consumer expenditure (PFCE) growth is estimated tumbling to 4.4% this year from 7.5% in FY23," and "Nominal per capita consumer expenditure growth fell to 8.5% in FY24 from 13.8% last year. This plays out in a context of steep drawdown of household financial savings - to 5.1% of GDP in FY23 from 7.2% in FY22 - and a rapid increase in  financial liabilities to 5.8% of GDP in FY23 from 3.8% the year before." FE. "The Indian economy is facing the challenge of lower consumption growth as high inflation is impacting people in the lower income bracket," and "the challenge is to bring down inflation so that people can have more disposable income in their hands," said Devendra Kumar Pant. Naturally, "Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India has slumped in the past year," as "net foreign investment in the year through September fell to $13 billion, according to calculations from HSBC Holdings Plc, down from $38 billion in the same period from a year earlier." ET. Why are the markets soaring? Because individual investors are being drawn to stocks. "Mutual fund assets under custody (AUC)  crossed the Rs 50-trillion mark at Rs 50.7 trillion for the first time," even as "debt witnessed outflows to the tune of Rs 755.5993 billion." Mint. While investing in stocks through mutual funds, punters are also investing directly. "As the domestic equity keeps on making new peaks every other day," "the total new Demat account openings touched a new high of 4.2 million, taking the number of total Demat accounts to 139.3 million." ET. Demat, or dematerialised, accounts hold shares and securities in electronic format, thus eliminating paperwork. Bajaj Finserv. Not just shares, people are gambling in derivative markets. "Against Rs 5 billion invested in NSE's secondary market, direct retail pumped Rs 505 billion into equity futures and equity options during April-September. The economy is doing great and the recovery is not K-shaped as others are saying, said SK Ghosh. As the government has promised free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years (pib.gov.in), Rs 8.5 trillion has shifted down from the top 10% of the population and so, "50% of the overall expenditure will be done by 90% of the people which before the pandemic was at 65%". ET. Mr Ghosh is chief economist at State Bank of India which is controlled by the government. Is free food a sign of wealth? India is now a giant casino as people gamble in shares and derivatives. Care for a flutter? 

Prices to fall.

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation stood at 5.69% in December, as compared with 5.55% in November, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)." "Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel, eased further to 3.9% in December, as compared with 4.12% in November." Cereal prices rose 9.93%, pulses rose by 20.73% and vegetable prices rose 27.64%. NDTV. The mandate for the Reserve Bank (RBI) is to keep CPI inflation at 4% with a rare deviation of 2% up or down. ET. So what is the RBI's response? A big yawn and a shrug. In fact, "RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has said that the central bank has managed to moderate inflation without compromising its growth focus." TOI. Why such cold indifference? Because inflation is mainly driven by the prices of food and this depends solely on supplies which cannot be improved through monetary policy. Food, especially vegetables, are transported by trucks and trucks run on diesel. Diesel prices in India vary between Rs 82.12 and Rs 99.84 per liter. NDTV. Petrol prices are even higher. In the US, the price of diesel varied between $3.531 and $5.152 per US gallon, which converts to about 3.8 liters (byju's). Taking an average price of $4 per gallon and the dollar at Rs 82.90 (xe.com), the price of diesel works out to about Rs 87.26 per liter. Petrol is cheaper in the US. Prices are so much higher in India due to taxes. In December 2021, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman revealed that the government had earned Rs 8.02 trillion in the last 3 financial years. ET. In March 2022, the Congress asked the government to account for Rs 26 trillion in excise duty on petroleum products in the preceding 8 years. BT. "India's high inflation problem over the last couple of years" has been "because of high tax/cess and the government's failure to pass on the benefits of lower import cost (when crude oil price was low) - had a cascading effect on firm-level transport costs, leading to a higher cost-push inflation in CPI - from which most companies (no just OMCs) profited at the expense of the poor," wrote Prof Deepanshu Mohan and Yashovardhan Chaturvedi. OMCs (oil marketing companies) are state owned so the government rakes in trillions in taxes and then forces the OMCs to pay enormous dividends. Win-win for the government, the middle finger to the people. However, as if by magic, "Price-tags for most household, personal and food products will fall in the next few months with consumer companies rolling out products with increased grammage or pack weight especially for small packs priced at Rs 5-20." ET. With Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea expected to increase inflation in the rest of the world (Fx Empire) how and why can companies in India reduce prices? Has the government made them an offer they can't refuse? The Indian Godfather is more lethal than Don Corleone. Nothing is impossible.