Geographic insurance.

 "Big American companies are piling up profits despite war and consumer anxiety, bolstered by healthy sales growth." "For much of the S&P 500 margins are improving. The gap between profit and sales growth remains below late-2024 highs, suggesting real expansion behind much of the profit growth," but, "In the current K-shaped economy, the wealthy keep spending, while most everyone else feels strapped." WSJ. A similar story is playing out in India. "Wealthy Indians are spending more overall, but a smaller share of that spending is going to retail stores." Instead, "they are increasingly spending on travel, fine dining and curated experiences such as concerts and wellness retreats even as they continue to purchase high-value premium goods." "While retail's share is shrinking, absolute spending on premium goods is rising, with affluent consumers trading up across segments." Mint. Indian companies are investing in the US. "A record $20.5 billion in investments into the United States by top Indian companies was celebrated at the 2026 SelectUSA Investment Summit in Maryland." US Mission India. "The commitments span key sectors including pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and emerging technologies, and are expected to create thousands of jobs in both countries while expanding US production and joint innovation capacity." "Global lenders to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd are weighing multiple financing options for its proposed $12 billion acquisition of New York-listed healthcare company Organon & Co., according to people familiar with the matter." But shouldn't it be better to invest within India? "Last week, chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said that profits for the 500 largest publicly traded companies had grown by over 30% a year since the pandemic," but private sector investment has been disappointing. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman publicly wonders every few months why corporations seem so unwilling to invest." "Back in the boom years more than a decade ago, capital expenditure was 40% of gross domestic product; it's down by about 10 percentage points on average since then." Nageswaran thinks that the younger generation do not want to take any risks. However, "The real reason India's richest don't want to invest domestically - and, possibly take some of their cash abroad - is because they estimate local political risk as being too high." "If they earn money in India, their first instinct is to try and diversify geographically, so they escape New Delhi's control as much as they can," wrote Mihir Sharma. "India is 157th out of 180 countries in the 2026 World Press Freedom Index released by Reporters Without Borders on 30 April. In the 2025 ranking India was at 151." The Wire. Pandering to Dear Leader may be physically safe but ensuring financial insurance by moving money abroad is wise. Something about eggs in one basket (BBC). Especially, one with sycophants.                                                                                                  

Loss of 0.01 jobs.

"India is currently the world's fastest growing major economy," but "During the 1990s, every percentage point of GDP growth yielded roughly 0.41% growth in formal employment. By early 2026, that employment elasticity had plummeted to 0.01." It means GDP growth is not creating jobs for labor. "This is the '0.01 trap' - a state where the economy can double in size while people's economic well-being does not improve," wrote Ejaz Ghani. There is another problem with the growth. "While India's GDP is expected to grow at a healthy 7.4% in 2025-26 in real terms, nominal growth is likely to be just 8%." HT found that "the post-pandemic period has seen the lowest nominal GDP growth since the 1970s despite real growth not doing so badly." The reason is low inflation due to low global commodity prices and deflationary pressures because of China's massive excess capacity in manufacturing, wrote  Roshan Kishore. High inflation helps the government by increasing tax collections and decreasing the real value of its debt. Economics Help. Despite lower inflation, "India's Goods and Services Tax Collections (GST) rose to a record high of Rs 2.43 trillion in April 2026." "The government data show gross GST collections rising 8.7%." "Strong indirect tax collections work well for government finances." TOI. GST came into force on 1 July 2017, replacing all central and state level taxes such as excise duty, VAT, services tax etc. cleartax.in. Since then it has been increasing every year, except for the Covid year of 2020-21. The average monthly collection has more than doubled from Rs 980.83 billion in 2018-19, the first full financial year of collections, to an expected Rs 1.9 trillion in 2025-26. blog.tatanexarc.com. This mirrors consumer price index (CPI) inflation rising to 4.07% in September 2019, soaring to 7.32% in December 2019 and then staying above an average of 6% till about January 2025. RI. GST is a percentage of the cost, so higher the price, the higher is the tax collection. The rate of inflation may be falling since last year, but, since inflation compounds from year to year, even smaller rises on a high base lead to higher GST collections. Not surprisingly "Profit before taxes for 33,000 sampled companies nearly quadrupled between 2019-20 and 2022-23." "Over that period, employment in these firms grew a mere 1.5%," and "real wages for regular workers contracted by 0.7%," wrote Ajit Ranade. India's net direct tax collections rose 5.12% to around Rs 23.40 trillion, while gross direct tax collections rose 4% year-on-year to Rs 28.1 trillion in the financial year ending 31 March. ET. The government is worried about the high cost of oil because of the Middle East conflict but not that worried about a poor monsoon. At worst, growth will fall to 6.7% from 6.9% and retail inflation will rise to 5%. BT. With employment elasticity of 0.01, jobs will fall from 0.069 to 0.067. No one will notice the difference. No worries.                                                                                

It's not AI.

"By almost every conventional measure of sovereign economic health - growth, inflation, fiscal trajectory, external vulnerability and investor confidence in the real economy - India's fundamentals are among the strongest of any emerging market. Yet the rupee has depreciated by over 13% against the dollar in the past two years and by more than 15% since January 2023." This is unfair, wrote Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran. In 2025, India received three credit rating upgrades. In May, Morningstar DBRS upgraded India to BBB from BBB (low), in August, S&P upgraded to BBB from BBB-, and in September, Rating and Investment Information Inc (R&I) upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to BBB+ from BBB. pib.gov.in. The reason for the rupee's woes is "the extraordinary pull that the artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle has exerted on global capital flows" "compressing currencies from Seoul and Jakarta to Mumbai regardless of whether  these economies were well or poorly managed.". According to a report from the Bank of Baroda, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "reduced the repo rate from 6.50% to 5.25%, a cut of 125 basis points (bps), starting in February 2025." However, "the weighted average lending rate (WALR) on fresh loans declined by 93 bps, showing partial transmission of the rate cuts." ET. In addition to slashing interest rates, the RBI "also pumped nearly Rs 20 trillion into banks, nearly double the amount of liquidity support during the pandemic. Yet the funds simply leaked out of India's banking system as global money managers dumped local assets and took dollars home." The RBI may be forced to raise interest rates as the weak rupee and higher fuel costs raise inflation rates, wrote Andy Mukherjee. The RBI's "balance sheet shows the amount of government paper (including treasury bills) held as on 28 February was Rs 21.34 trillion. It was Rs 15.58 trillion in March 2025." "An increase of this scale has never been witnessed earlier." The RBI transferred Rs 2.69 trillion as surplus to the government , and this "together with RBI's net incremental holdings of government paper, the sum of Rs 8.45 trillion is equivalent to 54% of the fiscal deficit for 2025-26," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Clearly, the RBI is monetizing government debt. "Even when the Federal Reserve prints more currency, there is still a global demand for the US dollar. However, the same will not be the case for the rupee. Thus, when there is excess supply of the currency, it could lead to a fall in rupee value, leading to an outflow of foreign investment," wrote Deepti Mary Mathew. "Net foreign direct investment (FDI) fell from some $40 billion in 2020-21 to about $350 million last year." Indian companies are investing abroad and foreign investors are cashing out. "High-profile exits - Citibank, Allianz, Ford, MG Motors, Hyundai's stake in Ola, Whirlpool, Holcim. BAT and others" "are selling assets, booking profits and reallocating capital to other markets, especially the US, which is now the world's most attractive FDI destination," wrote Ajit Ranade. Even Indian dealers are not buying the fantastic story. The yield on the benchmark 10-year GOI bonds is at 6.981% this morning, down from 7.043% one month ago. ininvesting. com. Perhaps our CEA should ask the RBI why the rupee is sick instead of blaming AI. Foreigners can flee. We can't.

Asking for Vide-Gousset.

Over the last two years India's central bank has been bringing our gold back to India, "physically moving bullion that was stored in vaults abroad to domestic storage inside India." "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held 880.52 metric tonnes of gold as of end-March 2026," constituting 16.7% of India's foreign exchange reserves. The total value of our gold reserves is Rs 8.36 trillion and the value of the 680.05 tonnes stored in India is Rs 6.46 trillion. Zee. If RBI's move was a masterstroke, the Banque de France executed a double masterstroke. Instead of physically transferring the gold bars, "Between July 2025 and January 2026, it sold 129 tonnes of older non-standard gold bars" at record high prices at the time. "It then used the proceeds to purchase higher standard bullion on the European market and stored it in Paris." Making a profit of 12.8 billion euros. ET. From 1963 to 1966, "France secretly repatriated a vast portion of its gold -- in an operation dubbed Vide-Gousset (French for emptying the pocket). Under the operation, France brought back 3,000 tonnes from New York and London using ships and aircraft. A section of economists see this as one of the key triggers that put pressure on the Bretton Woods gold convertibility system." NDTV. In 1971, then President Richard Nixon abolished the Gold Standard, which ended the Bretton Woods system and ushered in fiat currencies. wikipedia. This was one of the reasons for the stagflation of the 1970s. As a result, "Central banks have a greater degree of control over their nations' money and the management of variables such as interest rates, overall money supply, and velocity." They can take radical monetary policy actions such as quantitative easing (QE). It has created a large market for hedging currency risks and "The financial crisis of 2007-2008, in particular, proved that central bank control is no guaranteed defense against severe recessions." Investopedia. "RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra...called for Indian banks to emerge as market-makers, urging a more active global role for domestic lenders as the central banks seeks to shift rupee price discovery onshore." "When offshore rates diverge from domestic spot and forward markets, arbitrage and hedging flows transmit those signals back onshore, allowing offshore sentiment to drive local pricing." TOI. Will foreign investors be comfortable with this system? In March, the RBI suddenly "announced new rules capping the open positions banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. The change, effective April 10, forces lenders to shrink their books, limiting their ability to run large one-sided bets against the rupee." This caused heavy losses to banks. ET. This does not look like price discovery. It looks as if the RBI wants all hedging to happen in India so that it can control it. Foreigners investing in India would want a better value for their investment. Betting is banned in India but Rs 250 billion have been wagered on the assembly election results on foreign platforms through the internet, using cryptocurrencies. The Federal. Repatriating gold is for protection. But you don't trade in gold. You trade in currencies. Market making is not possible if the RBI changes rules suddenly. Why should banks take the risk? It would be Vide-Gousset.    

Land routes need oil.

"Israel has supplied the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with an advanced laser-based air defence system, known as 'Iron Beam'," which is "designed to vaporise short-range rockets and drones." Israel has used these against the Hezbollah. "Israel has also sent an advanced surveillance system, 'Spectro', which can detect incoming drones from up to 20 km away." TOI. Iran thought that attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz would create global pressure that the US could not resist. Instead, the US blockade of Iranian ports has stopped Iran's fleet of shadow ships which used to go dark at sea before transferring their cargo to China. Hardliners in Iran believe that "Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices soaring and increase the pressure on Trump." WSJ. "Since its creation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has revolved around a supreme leader with final authority on all key matters of state. But the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has created a "different order dominated by commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and marked by the absence of a decisive, authoritative referee." Reuters. "The IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency recently published a map of undersea internet cables crossing the Strait of Hormuz in a veiled warning." Now, Pakistan has operationalized six land routes which "connect major Pakistani ports, including Gwadar and Port Qasim to border crossings such as Taftan and Gabd, enabling direct land access to Iran with which Pakistan shares a border of over 900 km." India Today. Land routes cannot transfer large quantities of goods over long distances and, since both countries are almost bankrupt, who will pay for the diesel used by the trucks. Recently, "Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the US-Iran war has dealt a serious blow to Pakistan's economic progress made over the past two years." NDTV. Pakistan may be hoping to be paid in Iranian oil which can decrease shortage for the people. "The Trump administration is now calling Operation Epic Fury as Operation Economic Fury." "In total, 31 tankers laden with 53 million barrels of Iranian oil are 'stuck in the Gulf' and have a value of at least $4.8 billion." Iran has about 30 days before it faces severe shortage of storage. The US Treasury has frozen "half a billion dollars in regime-linked cryptocurrency, while also escalating pressure on Chinese 'teapot' refineries, foreign banks and sanctions-evasion networks facilitating Tehran's trade." ET. Iran is smuggling oil by tankers disguised as Iraqi vessels to get round the US blockade, according to maritime intelligence. Fox. Iran has offered to stop its attacks on ships in the Strait "in exchange for a full end to the war, a lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports and postponement of nuclear talks." In short, a complete surrender by the US and Israel. The killing of Mahsa Amini for not wearing a hijab, (wikipedia) which is a religious reason and the killing of up to 30,000 Iranians on 8 and 9 January for protesting (Time) means that all IRGC and Basij gangsters are Takfiris (wikipedia). Iranians should shoot them on sight even if they are relatives. That will be an Islamic solution to all their problems. For an Islamic nation. And Islamic Guards.         

Brazilians have 7 times more cars.

"India is expected to withstand global economic shocks despite rising uncertainty due to its strong macroeconomic fundamentals, according to a report by the Bank of Baroda." Even though, "global headwinds such as slowdown in the world economy and geopolitical uncertainty could impact India's exports, disrupt supply chains, and lead to higher commodity prices." ET. "Back in 1991, India was on the edge of a financial crisis." "At the same time, Brazil looked far ahead, with its economy twice the size of India's." "Fast forward more than three decades," and "India was until now the world's fourth-largest economy, which recently slipped to sixth position because of depreciation of the rupee, while Brazil is at 11th place. The country has grown at an average of around 6.5% a year, while Brazil's growth has been closer to 2.5%." India's economy is based on services, Brazil's on commodities. msn.com. India has a higher credit rating according to S&P, Moody's and Fitch and a much lower interest rate at 5.25% compared to 14.75% in Brazil. However, India's population is over 1.40 billion crammed into 3.3 million sq km, while Brazil has a population of just 213 million spread out over 8.5 million sq km. Naturally, Brazil's GDP per capita was $10,282 while India's was $2,592 in 2024 and there were 218.59 motor vehicles per 1000 people in Brazil in 2020 and only 32.57 per 1000 people in India. countryeconomy.com. Clearly, on an individual level Brazilians are much more prosperous. "During the financial year ended 31 March 2026, India's imports from China rose to $131.6 billion, up from $65.2 billion in 2020-21. By contrast, India's exports to China in 2025-26 stood at $19.5 billion - still below the $21.2 billion in 2020-21. India's trade deficit with China widened from $44 billion in 2020-21, to $112.1 billion 2025-26, an increase of 155% in five years." DH. In 2024, Brazil exported a total of $378 billion and imported a total of $368 billion, thus earning a trade surplus in goods and services. atlas.hks.harvard.edu. In FY 2024-25, India incurred a cumulative trade deficit in merchandise and services of $-94.26. pib.gov.in. According to a Reuters poll of economists, India's GDP is expected to grow 6.7% in this financial year, but the figures do not capture "an already-notable hit to the country's vast informal sector." About 90-93% of India's workforce is employed in the informal sector, which had 65 million unincorporated enterprises employing 110 million workers in 2022-23. Vajiram & Ravi. Also, "India is facing inflation threats from heat waves and below normal rainfall this year, creating new economic pressures for policymakers already grappling with soaring energy costs." ET. How is it that our economy keeps growing gangbusters while per capita GDP is only $2,813 in 2026 (IMF)? An increase of just 8.5% from 2024. India is better off than Brazil. But Brazilians are better off than Indians. They have more cars. And oil.      

Duplicitous indispensable.

"The United Arab Emirates (UAE) yesterday said it was quitting OPEC, dealing a blow to the oil producers' group as an unprecedented energy crisis caused by the Iran war exposes discord among Gulf nations." "Once firm allies, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh have developed a simmering rivalry, clashing on issues from oil policy and regional geopolitics to the race for foreign talent and capital." As a participant of the Abraham Accords, the UAE signed a peace agreement with Israel in August 2020. state.gov. Last week, the UAE asked Pakistan to repay a loan of $3.5 billion which had been advanced in 2019. "Behind the UAE's decision lies growing frustration in Abu Dhabi" over Pakistan's role as a neutral mediator between Iran and the US. Also, "Relations between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been strained, particularly over Yemen, where they back rival factions." "Saudi Arabia stepped in with $3 billion in fresh deposits and extended a $5 billion facility." TOI. Almost like using one credit card to pay the bill of another. On 17 September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), in which, "both countries have committed to treating any act of aggression against one as an act against both (known as collective security)." wikipedia. NATO has a similar clause. "Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all." nato.int. In practice, however, treacherous European countries, while happily accepting the US safety umbrella for decades, have not supported the US in the Iran conflict. "United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer...reiterated that Britain will not be drawn into the ongoing Middle East conflict, asserting that 'this is not our war' and that joining it is 'not in our national interest'." TOI. Why was the attack on Iraq, based on lies about weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) (wikipedia), Britain's war and in Britain's 'national interest'? "It was a war in which the UK mission in Basra came 'close to failure' and which left Britain's military reputation and confidence 'damaged'." BBC. Then Prime Minister Tony Blair was a lawyer and Labour Party leader and had won a landslide victory in the general election of 2001. Keir Starmer is exactly the same. wikipedia. Starmer's stand has not pleased President Donald Trump and "internal US policy discussions explored options ranging from suspending Spain from Nato positions to reassessing support for Britain's claims over the Falklands Islands" as well as withdrawing from Nato. TOI. King Charles III has been sent to apply some soothing balm. In his address to the US Congress, the King said, "Our two countries have always found ways to come together." And, "As my prime minister said last month: 'Ours is an indispensable partnership'." CBS. Clearly, former Foreign Minister Lord Carrington was not the only one, there are a lot more "duplicitous bastards" (upi.com) in Britain even today. China is Pakistan's "iron brother" (ciis.org) so its SMDA with Saudi Arabia could also be an "indispensable partnership". And, equally duplicitous.

Pessimistic Americans.

"The good news is that Americans have never been richer. The bad news is that most of them don't feel like it," wrote Allison Schrager. "In 1967, a little more than 5% of Americans earned or received more than $150,000 (in 2024 dollars). Now more than 30% do. And it's not just the middle class that moved up: In 1967, more than 38% earned or received less than $50,000. Now that figure is 21%." "There are hundreds of Americans who are worth more than a billion dollars," "and more have the sense that something is wrong with the economy." A new study by the American Enterprise Institute finds 31% of households, up from 10% in 1979, now earn $153,864 to $461,592, enough to be considered upper middle class. "The share of wealthy households also rose 3.7%, roughly 12 times higher than in 1979, while poverty and near-poverty rates declined." man.com. "Over the past half-century, incomes have risen across the distribution, aided by economic growth, expanded opportunities - especially for women - and a stronger safety net." However, "High housing costs, expensive college education and rising healthcare expenses can stretch budgets even for households earning well into six figures. For families of color, these pressures are often more acute." The Print. An increase in double-income families and higher income for women are reasons for increasing household wealth. "In 1970, about 11% of women had college degrees, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Today, about 40% of American women have bachelor's degrees, which is linked to higher lifetime earnings." CBS. "Since January 2025, manufacturing jobs have indeed fallen by about 100,000 workers, or about 0.6%. In the same period, though, manufacturing production rose 2.3%, and manufacturing shipments, unadjusted for inflation, climbed 4.2%." "The US is good at making things that happen to be in big demand right now," and "manufacturing indicators have improved since Trump's so-called Liberation Day tariffs a year ago, despite some predictions of calamity." WSJ. Maybe no calamity for the US, but a small calamity for India. "The (Indian) rupee has declined 10.8% in FY26 since the closing levels of last fiscal year. Much of this has come during the pre-war period, even when the dollar was weakening, and other currencies were gaining. This was due to a "calibrated depreciation approach" by the RBI, "massive capital outflow due to concerns over high tariffs and valuations, and widening trade deficit and high gold imports," wrote Payal Bhattacharya. More Indians are borrowing to finance their spending. "Over the past seven years, the number of Indians with outstanding debt has more than doubled, from 128 million in 2017-18 to 283 million in 2024-25," and there has been "a surge in household financial liabilities, ballooning from Rs 3.9 trillion in FY2015 (financial year 2015) to Rs 18.8 trillion FY2024 before moderating to Rs 15.7 trillion in FY2025." NDTV. And yet, "The stagflation risk is real" for the US, and India remains the world's fastest growing major economy. Earnings rising in the US, borrowings rising in India. Calamity or growth. Strange.           

Iran standing firm.

"US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 am ET," and "The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman." centcom.mil. On 14 April, "A US destroyer interdicted two oil tankers attempting to leave Iran,..a day after President Donald Trump's blockade went into effect, and instructed them to turn around, a US official said." Reuters. "The Rich Starry, a sanctioned Chinese oil and chemical tanker, masked its exact location in the Persian Gulf for more than 10 days," but "When it emerged into the Gulf of Oman - near where the US Navy is operating to enforce its blockade of Iranian ports - the tanker made an about U-turn." "Early signs are that after years of dodging sanctions, the Iranian shadow fleet may have met its match in the US naval blockade - its ships now appear unable to leave the Persian Gulf." WSJ. "The US and Israel hit at least 17,000 targets over five weeks of war, including factories; rail, road and port infrastructure; government buildings; and military facilities. Iranian state media put the cost of rebuilding at $270 billion." The US blockade will cost an estimated "$435 million per day, including $276 million in lost exports." And, "As many as 12 million jobs, nearly half of Iran's workforce, are at risk from furloughs and layoffs." WSJ. Given this appalling state of the economy and the prospect of real hardship, even starvation, among its people, Iran would be expected to be eager to negotiate with the US. Instead, Iran is refusing to talk unless its conditions are met. "Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that Iran will not enter into negotiations under pressure, threats and siege, Mehr News Agency reported." Gulf News. "The prospect of direct US-Iran talks remains uncertain as the Iranian delegation led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departed from Pakistan after holding discussions with Pakistan's leadership." "He also delivered Iran's list of demands and reservations for ending the US-Israeli war." News18. What is the reason for Iran's resistance? The regime wants to ensure its own survival regardless of the people's suffering. "As many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on Jan. 8 and 9 alone, two senior officials of the country's Ministry of Health told Time." If people starve, or die of lack of food or medicines, they will just blame the Americans and Israelis. Also, they are probably hoping that Trump will be weakened by the vicious hostility of the majority of the US media. "Both CNN and The New York Times disseminated a fake ten-point plan they claimed was from Iran - with CNN going even so far as pushing the narrative that the Iranian regime was victorious and had 'forced' the US to accept its terms." The White House. The media blame Trump for being against free speech. "Since taking office in January, President Donald Trump has waged an aggressive campaign against the media unlike any in modern US history." PBS. Probably because Media Research Center found 92% of negative coverage of Trump in his first hundred days in 2025. But the report is inaccessible on every site. Is Google censoring the truth about media bias? Iran must not be allowed to hold the world to ransom. The US must win.

India invented the zero.

Election freebies announced by the DMK party in Tamil Nadu include "women from families that do not pay income tax will be given a coupon worth Rs 8,000 to purchase household appliances", Rs 2,000 per month to 13.1 million women and Rs 1,500 stipend to college students. AIADMK will give refrigerators to all rice-ration-card holders and NTK will increase jobs by creating five capitals across the state. The Wire. The 2025-26 Economic Survey warned that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) "are making state governments bankrupt," and preventing investments in "healthcare, building schools, hospitals, roads, paying for teachers'salaries." "A meta-analysis of 115 randomized evaluations across 72 UCT programs in 34 low- and middle-income countries finds that UCTs improve consumption, food security and short-term income stability, but have little impact on consistently improving child nutrition, education, or reducing poverty," wrote Prof Neeraj Kaushal. "The population covered by social protection systems has increased from 22% in 2016 to 64.3% in 2025," so that "poverty in all its dimensions according to national definitions has declined sharply from 24.85% in 2015-16 to 14.96% in 2019-21." TOI. "The Union government spent Rs 6.33 trillion on subsidies and transfers in 2023-24, up from Rs 2.76 trillion in 2018-19, a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%." The official figures undercount actual subsidy expenditure by Rs 3 trillion and there are off-budget payments as well, wrote Aditya Sinha. In addition, the central government is providing free food grains to 813.5 million people for five years, starting on 01.01.2024 at a cost of Rs 11.80 trillion over five years. pib.gov.in. The Forest Minister of Maharashtra proposed raising Rs 120 billion to finance its Ladki Bahin (daughter, sister) Scheme by chopping down its teak plantation, wrote Ajit Ranade. India's GDP growth may be among the highest in the world, but "Among the leading signs of weakness: India is losing more people and attracting a lot less money than it used to. This decade, a net total of 6,75,000 people emigrated each year, up from 3,25,000 in the 2010s." Foreign direct investment (FDI) surpassed 4% in China and Vietnam during their boom phase. "That figure never surpassed 1.5% in India and is now just 0.1%, which is one-sixth of the emerging market average," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Indians are flocking to Russia for work. "In 2021,..5,000 work permits were approved for Indian nationals. Last year, almost 72,000 were okayed for Indians - nearly a third of the total annual quota for migrant workers on visas." Reuters. Throwing handouts to win elections leads to tax terrorism which has caused several industrialists to commit suicide (TOI). "Average citizens [often express the feeling] that most of the time attempts by tax authorities to go after taxpayers are to meet some arbitrary collection targets, instead of being based on careful investigation. The numbers seem to partly justify this suspicion: When these disagreements go to court, the government wins less than 8% of the time," wrote Mihir Sharma. With a nominal GDP at $3.916 trillion (TOI) can India afford endless handouts? Only if the rupee falls to the basement. It won't matter. After all, India invented the zero (BBC).  

To increase or not?

"India's retail inflation quickened to 3.40% year-on-year in March from 3.21% in February, government data showed." Reuters. Experts predicted it could rise to 4% if the conflict with Iran continues. Last month, "The government...extended the mandate for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain retail inflation at 4%, with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side, for another five years ending 31 March 2031." TOI. So, retail inflation is well under control. Apparently, "Fuel retailers are losing Rs 20 per liter on petrol and Rs 100 a liter on diesel as state-run firms continue to shield customers from oil price volatility by holding up pump rates." Costs will be passed on to consumers after 29 April, when assembly elections end. HT. The retail price of diesel is around Rs 90 per liter, varying from Rs 82.45 per liter in Chandigarh to Rs 96.48 in Thiruvananthapuram. goodreturns.in. It means, diesel prices could rise to nearly Rs 200 per liter after 29 April. "In 2023, the United States imported about 8.51 million barrels per day (b/d) of Petroleum from 86 countries." And "exported 10.15 b/d of petroleum to 173 countries and 3 US territories." So, the US was a net exporter of 1.64 million b/d of petroleum. eia.gov. Yet, on 20 April 2026, the highway price of diesel was $7.325 per gallon in Caliornia, down from $7.567 on 06 April. eia.gov. Taking 1 US gallon at 3.8 liters (unitconverters.net) and 1 US dollar at Rs 94 (xe.com), it works out to about Rs 181 per liter. The US taxes petrol at 18% and diesel at 17%. In the US, the oil industry is in the private sector. "Indian officials say the Iran war could be as disruptive to the economy as the Covid pandemic was six years ago and the damage could linger for years to come, threatening to knock the world's fastest growing nation off its path." However, they still see economic growth at 6.8%-7.2% in FY 27. ET. Does not seem like much of a knock. Actually, oil should not be that important because, "Oil imports as a percentage of GDP have fallen from 8.5% to 4.8% over the years." Petroleum products have fallen from 37% of total imports in 2014 to 26% in 2025 and the share of investments in renewables has increased from 23% in 2013-14 to over 40% in 2024-25. HDFC Fund. So why the moans? The price of crude oil fell from over $90 per barrel in 2014 to below $40 per barrel in 2015 and has stayed below $60 till this year. eia.gov. As prices fell the government merrily increased taxes on petroleum products to over 50% (cleartax.in) and raked in over Rs 40 trillion in revenue since 2014-15 to now (ppac.gov.in). On 23 April, the basket of crude oil for India cost $108.55 per barrel. ppac.gov.in. The real problem is, increasing the retail price by Rs 100 will cause prices of all goods to jump, infuriating people, and cutting taxes to reasonable levels, like in the US, could cause the fiscal deficit to balloon. If the government had passed on low prices to the people, it would have lowered prices, increased consumption and helped economic growth. People would have adjusted to any increase now. Moral of the story: don't loot the people. Honesty, after all, is the best policy.  

Official indignation.

"US President Donald Trump has indefinitely extended the ceasefire with Iran after a direct request from Pakistan's leadership, as both sides await a unified Iranian proposal." "Trump's announcement of an indefinite ceasefire extension came hours before the truce was due to expire, following urgent appeals from Pakistan's top leadership." msn.com. Last week, Trump "praised Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his army chief, Asim Munir, for hosting the US-Iran talks in Islamabad." "They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous war with India," Trump said. NDTV. He has also claimed that eight planes were shot down during Operation Sindoor in May last year. TT. Clearly, Trump seems to enjoy needling Prime Minister Narendra Modi who claimed In Parliament that Pakistan begged India to stop shooting. NDTV. All that may seem trivial, but "Former US Ambassador to India Kenneth Juster yesterday suggested that Pakistan's improving ties with the United States could have implications for India's strategic decision-making in the event of a future major terrorist attack originating from across the border." He said it is an "irritant" to India. ET. More worrying, "India yesterday criticized remarks made by Trump in a social media post that referred to India as part of a 'hellhole' comment, calling the remarks 'uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste', asserting that they do not reflect the true nature of bilateral ties." ET. On cue, India's Ambassador to the US, Vinay Mohan Kwatra claimed yesterday that PM Modi and Trump "share bonhomie which is reflected in the wide-ranging cooperation between New Delhi and Washington." ET. US officials applied a soothing balm, saying that Trump has said, "India is a great country with a very good friend of mine at the top." DH. The craven 'godi (lapdog) media' (wikipedia) is not to be left behind. Trump's admiration for Munir is because, "It resonates with core elements of Trump's own personality that include 'narcissistic supply' seeking, admiration for authoritarian figures, a transactional approach and an insatiable craving for validation as a deal maker." ET. Trump taken care of, now Pakistan's turn. Although the ceasefire negotiations were held in Islamabad, actually "America's biggest rival, China, has emerged as the quiet force shaping the outcome," as "Iranian officials reportedly credited a last-minute push by China with securing their acceptance, a claim soon after validated by Trump." ET. How can Trump validate a private message from China to Iran? But, a loud raspberry to Pakistan nevertheless. Is India a 'hellhole'? Depends on who you ask. Opposition parties mock the BJP as a "washing machine" party because criminals join the BJP to have serious criminal charges against them disappear (The Print). Institutions such as the Election Commission of India have lost all credibility and are seen as agents of the BJP. DH. What makes India a true 'hellhole' is that rapists and murderers are consistently protected and evidence against them deliberately destroyed. Especially if the victim is a Dalit (lower caste). Wrote Ranjana Padhi. Convicted rapist and murderer Ram Rahim has been released from prison 15 times since 2017 on parole and has spent 400 days in freedom. This was reported by CNN which is American. Trump may be in "poor taste" but "uninformed" he's not . Lots of Indians agree. Silently.         

Tons of gold.

"Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra has indicated that capital account liberalisation cannot come at the cost of macroeconomic sovereignty." "Highlighting some of the prudent measures.., Malhotra said that there were controls on the capital account for residents, limits on short term foreign debt and RBI intervened in forex markets when needed." TOI. Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar said, "The RBI remains committed to the internationalisation of the rupee, but steps in with measures whenever there is excessive volatility." msn.com. The Indian rupee is freely convertible in the current account, which is for investment purposes (Medium) but is not convertible in the capital account, which is for buying assets (Tata). "Foreign investors (FIIs) pulled out nearly $19 billion from Indian equities in 2026 so far, even as domestic investors continued to deploy money through systematic investment plans (SIP) and lump-sum allocations." FE. In effect, FIIs repatriated foreign exchange bought with Indian rupees from domestic investors. But Indians are not allowed to buy and hold foreign currency. The result is that the RBI and the government can make Indians poorer deliberately. One US dollar bought Rs 59.44 in May 2014 (Thomas Cook) when Mr Narendra Modi was first elected prime minister (wikipedia), and is at 94 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). That is an impoverishing devaluation of over 58%. A weaker currency causes inflation by  increasing prices of imports and higher prices further reduce the value of the rupee. The RBI has been tolerating retail inflation at over 4% in most years (RI) and has overseen the rupee reduced to near junk. High inflation helps the government reduce its debt by increasing tax collections and rupee devaluation reduces the value of the debt. Economics Help. Thus, the RBI has been systematically transferring the wealth of Indian citizens to the government. In 2022, the RBI allowed foreign banks to open 'Vostro accounts' in Indian banks so as to enable payment for imports in Indian rupees. pib.giv.in. The idea is that when an Indian company imports goods from a foreign company it will deposit the cost into the account of that country in an Indian bank in rupees which can then be used to pay for goods bought from India (Investopedia) by a company of the same country. This way India would save foreign exchange. This can work only if trade with another country is roughly equal but we incurred a deficit of $333.20 billion in merchandise trade and a surplus of $213.89 billion in services trade for a combined trade deficit of $119.30 billion in 2025-26. pib.gov.in. And also, the currency must retain its value. Russian banks opened vostro accounts in India to avoid Western sanctions but were stuck with over $8 billion in rupees in those accounts. They had to spend the money in buying Indian government bonds, machinery and arms. Mint. Ordinary Indians do not understand all these shenanigans but they can feel that they are being cheated somehow. So they buy gold. "Morgan Stanley economists Upasana Chachra and Bani Gambhir estimate that Indian households now hold 34,600 tons of gold worth nearly $3.8 trillion (Yahoo) which is just below India's nominal GDP at $3.916 trillion  (TOI). Ironically, India fell from 4th largest economy in the world to 6th because of the slump in the rupee. As India's central bank, the RBI should control inflation and honor the rupee. Making citizens poorer is no sovereignty. No capital account convertibility? No problem - there's gold convertibility. Tons of it.  

Perception is correct.

"India's central bank has flagged the risk of inflation becoming entrenched as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global supply chains and energy markets." Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra "suggested that the central bank's response would focus more on managing expectations than aggressively tightening demand." ET. Meaning, he is averse to higher interest rates. "When households are asked to assign a number to current or future inflation, their responses are shaped by recent movements in the prices of everyday items," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. "The lower and more uncertain the income, the greater the inflation anxiety, and the higher the inflation is perceived to be." "Household inflation perceptions are heavily influenced by food and fuel prices." Even with the new CPI basket which assigns lower weight to food (finshots.in), "Households continue to perceive inflation 4-6% higher than the official rate." So, how is the RBI going to change public perception? By telling people they are wrong? The government has a large number of goods and services items in the CPI basket and measures inflation year-on-year but people perceive only what they buy which gives rise to 'subjective bias'. People only remember what they have purchased recently so there is 'recency bias', a sudden sharp rise in prices gives 'shock bias' and they notice only changes in prices which is 'impact bias'. Still, if their perception changes their consumption it is important for the economy, wrote Madan Sabnavis. Last year, the Economic Survey pointed out that while companies are making record profits, wages are not growing. "Profits before taxes for over 33,000 sampled companies nearly quadrupled between 2019-20 and 2022-23. Nifty 500 companies posted profit growth of 22.3% in 2023-24 alone." But employment grew by just 1.5% and, while the GDP grew at 6.7% between 2021-22 and 2023-24, "real wages for regular workers contracted by 0.07%," wrote Ajit Ranade. Indian companies operate on the principle of gouging customers while paying niggardly wages to their workers. No Indian company will dream of doubling wages as Henry Ford did, when on 5 January 1914, "he announced that henceforth the minimum wage for Ford employees would be $5 for an eight-hour day, more than doubling the previous Ford minimum wage of $2.34 for a nine-hour day." Ford Motor's profits doubled from 1914-1916. ebsco.com. Corporate social responsibility, in which companies must spend 2% of net profits on social activity, has been made mandatory cleartax.in. "Indian firms spend about Rs 340 billion on CSR, but most of it flows into low-poverty areas, and larger firms are leaving funds unspent." indiaspend.com. No wonder, worker protests broke out in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh recently. BBC. In 2012, the General Manager Human Resources was burned to death at Maruti Suzuki's car plant in Haryana. TOI. When people are financially stressed even a slight rise in prices can seem intolerable. The RBI is not serious about inflation control, achieving its target only in 2025 (RI). Perception is correct. It's not bias.  

The price of cheap food.

On 31 December 2025, "Cut to 2026, three months in. India will expand to $4 trillion in GDP by then, just $150 billion shy of beating Japan and likely to cross the latter in FY27 to reach No 4 in the global pecking order." India will soon cross $5 trillion, wrote Pragya Sravastava and Payal Bhattacharya. However, "At an individual level, Indians remain behind. Per capita GDP - the real deal - is estimated at $2,818 for 2025-26, and puts India among the 50 poorest countries." Instead of rising to 4th, India has slipped to 6th according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook (April 2026). As per the IMF's estimate in April 2025, India should have been at $4,187.017 billion in April 2026, with Japan at $4,186.431 billion and the UK at $3,839.18 billion. Instead, India's nominal GDP is at $3,916 billion with the UK at $4,003 billion and Japan at $4,435 billion. TOI. This is partly because GDP is measured in US dollars and the Indian rupee has fallen from 84.5484 on 30 April 2025 (exchangerates.org.uk) to 93.33 to one dollar this morning (xe.com). Also, the base year for the GDP has been updated from 2011-12 to 2022-23 and the methodology has been changed to international standards. Accordingly, the nominal GDP in FY26 is calculated at Rs 345 trillion as opposed to Rs 357 trillion projected earlier. Kashmir Life. A research paper by Abhishek Anand, Josh Feldman and Arvind Subramanian have reworked the numbers. "Officially India's so-called 'gross value added' (an indicator of economic output from the production side) between 2011 and 2023 grew at an average rate of 5.9% in real terms. With the corrections, that average rate drops to 4-4.4% per year, according to Anand et al." The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) strongly disagreed. Mint. In December 2025, the economy was said to be in a 'Goldilocks period', with 8.2% growth in the second quarter of 2025-26 and consumer price index (CPI) inflation below 2%. ET. The glee is because the CPI inflation rate came in at 1.33% year-on-year in December 2025, with food prices contracting by -2.71%. pib.gov.in. That may not be something to celebrate as "Cheap food for the urban consumer has been secured by shifting the burden of inflation control on to the farmer." "When output prices fail to cover the full cost of production, debt ceases to be a choice and becomes a structural inevitability. In India, nearly 70% of farm households are trapped in a cycle of borrowing, with small and marginal farmers, who constitute 85% of all cultivators, bearing a disproportionate share of this burden." DH. In supreme irony, "The Union Cabinet... approved a two-percentage-point increase in dearness allowance (DA) for central government employees and dearness relief (DR) for pensioners, raising both to 60% of basic pay and pension respectively." HT. Dearness means higher prices or inflation. So, this pampered, overpaid crowd gets 60% extra cash every month while farmers are suppressed. The GDP series may be new, but the exploitation is old. They get 60%. Farmers borrow. It's redistribution. Indian style.       

Dreaming of stars.

"The indigenously designed and built Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam in Tamil Nadu successfully attained its first criticality on 6th April 2026, marking the initiation of a sustained chain reaction." "Once fully operational, India will become only the second country in the world after Russia to operate a commercial fast breeder reactor." pib.gov.in. "During the same time India's first PFBR achieved criticality, Bengaluru-based startup Pranos raised $6.8 million in seed funding to build India's first commercial fusion reactor prototype." "Fusion-based reactor technology is gaining traction with a couple of Indian-startups looking at power generation by 2035, while thorium-based rectors are a few decades away." "India is already contributing Rs 7.45 billion in 2026-27 for a global fusion project, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), a multi-country endeavour located in France." BT. India's top companies Reliance and Adani are interested. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO)  spent "$74 million on the Mars orbiter Mangalyaan and $75 million on...historic Chandrayaan-3 - less than the $100m spent on the sci-fi thriller Gravity." Nasa's Maven orbiter cost $582 million and Russia's Luna-25, which crashed on the moon's surface, cost $133 million. BBC. Although, India has a track record of achieving great scientific success on a shoestring budget, $6.8 million is really loose change for fusion research. China Fusion Energy and Neo Fusion of China have budgets over $2 billion, while Commonwealth Fusion Systems and Helion Energy of the US have budgets of nearly $3 billion and over $1 billion respectively. FEB. Tokamak technology has been around since !960. The Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) was built at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory in 1980 and entered service in 1982 but it could never achieve break-even, which means it used more power than it produced. It was dismantled in 2002. wikipedia. In December 2022, "an experiment carried out at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California had for the first time managed to produce more energy than it than it consumed via nuclear fusion," but "The experiment in California was carried out under special conditions that cannot be replicated anywhere else in the world and produce modest results in terms of the amount of energy generated," wrote Marcos Pivetta. Perhaps, the biggest hurdle will be electricity. ICRA estimates electricity demand to grow by 5-5.5% in FY 2026 and by a compound annual growth rate of 6-6.5% over the next five years. ET. It is not sure whether this takes into account that "India's data center capacity is expected to surge nearly six-fold from about 1.5 GW in 2025 to 8-10 GW by 2030, while electricity consumption from the sector is expected to rise sharply from 10-15 terawatt hours (TWh) in 22024 to 40-45 TWh by 2030." FE. It's good to dream of producing fusion energy of stars in India. Others have tried and failed. At least it's cheap at $6.8 million.

All for women.

"Prime Minister Naredndra Modi yesterday apologised to women across the country after the Lok Sabha rejected the proposal for 33% reservation for women in Parliament," blaming opposition parties. ET. But why now, exactly one week before elections to assemblies of opposition controlled states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal (wikipedia)? Government channels "Doordarshan National and DD News are the primary government broadcast channels that carry all presidential and prime ministerial addresses to the nation live and without interruption." Not just that, "Every household with a basic cable or DTH connection receives DD News." Dailyhunt. Which means that every Indian citizen is compelled to subscribe to these channels which serve the government. Mr Modi first came to power in 2014 (wikipedia) so why did he bring this law at this time in blatant violation of the Model Code of Conduct which "prescribes that official work and campaigning shall be kept separate and no official machinery should be used for campaigning. It also prohibits from spending public money for propaganda (wikipedia). At the very least the Election Commission of India (ECI) should postpone both elections by one month. Mr TN Seshan would have had the guts and integrity to do so TNIE. If the government's collective heart is bubbling over with concern for women, perhaps someone could explain why 35-year old Princess Latifa of Dubai was assaulted by Indian commandos, forcibly tranquilized and flown back to Dubai when she was begging for asylum (TOI). Or why thousands of women, many with little children, were forced to walk hundreds of kilometers back to their villages with no food, water, transport (gettyimages.in) or any help from the government after a very stringent lockdown was imposed on the whole nation on 25 March with just 4 hours notice (BBC)? Hungry toddlers cried for food and women even gave birth at the roadside without any medical help. TOI. Jyoti Kumari, born in 2005, would have been just 15 years old in May 2020, when she carried her injured father 1,200 kms on a bicycle from Gurugram near Delhi to Sirhulli in Bihar. Cycling 100 kms every day. wikipedia. Has anyone apologised to all these women for all the suffering that was imposed on them? "The 106th Constitutional Amendment in 2023 introduced reservation of one-third of seats in Lok Sabha and State Assemblies for women. It provides that reservation will come into effect after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose, based on the first census after the commencement of the 2023 Act." PRS. A census started on 1 April 2026 and will continue till September. The Population Enumeration is scheduled for February 2027. wikipedia. The 131st Amendment Bill, which was defeated in Parliament, proposed Delimitation based on 2011 Census and Women's Reservation based on that. This was brazen, shameless duplicity. The ECI is a constitutional body and should take action at this sly, deceitful and  dishonorable electioneering. That would need a spine. Of bone. Not jelly  

At $1 per hour.

Four days ago, "Police lobbied tear gas shells and used 'minimum force'...to quell a factory workers' protest in the Indian national capital's suburb of Noida, which turned violent on its fourth day, with vehicles torched and stones pelted in parts of the satellite city." Perhaps incensed by the news that, "Similar protests in the auto-making state of Haryana last week led to the government ordering a 35% hike in minimum wages." Reuters. Noida is in Uttar Pradesh and so, "Noida police have alleged that two social media accounts in X, operated from Pakistan, played a major role in escalating the April 13 labor protest into violence by spreading false information about multiple deaths during the demonstrations, as per TOI." India's strict labor laws imposed high costs on employing permanent labor. So companies resorted to laborers on temporary contracts, on lower wages and no benefits, supplied by manpower supply companies. Scroll. Last year, "With the four labor codes now live, the government has effectively rewritten the rules for how companies hire outside permanent roles. In plain terms: India's workforce has long run on two parallel tracks, fixed-term direct hires and contract labor via agencies. The codes try to formalize both." MC. However, Noida is not the only place, workers have protested in Faridabad and Manesar in Haryana, in Surat in Gujarat and in Bhiwadi in Rajasthan. Paltry wages, which have stayed stagnant for years, while prices have risen make life impossible. DH. A shortage of manufacturing jobs for unskilled labor forces people to work for low wages. On 31 January 2025, "The sector's contribution to GDP, which has stagnated at 16-17% (of GDP) for years, is projected to drop to 13-14% by 2025." "Supply chain disruptions, cost disadvantages and a tepid export environment have significantly eroded the sector's competitiveness." FE. India produces a large number of graduates, but "graduate unemployment for the 15-25 age group is hovering near 40%", because, "India's elite, hemmed in by its own risk aversion and stifling bureaucratic controls, has shown little ambition to build the kind of mass-employment manufacturing base that could provide an alternative," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Mopping and dusting offer better returns. "At Indian startup Pronto's training hub, women hone their mopping and chopping skills while learning how to send SOS signals if they feel unsafe in customers' homes. They are set to join India's new consumer craze: house help for $1 an hour." "The potential annual earnings from working eight hours a day can be as high as $5,000 - a figure that surpasses India's per capita income of around $3,000." "Similar services can cost around $30 an hour in the United States, and around $7 in China." Reuters. In Noida, most protesters are "non-unionised contract workers employed in small factories across industrial clusters." "They earn between Rs 10,000 ($107) and Rs 15,000 a month - wages that have remained largely unchanged for months. Many are migrant workers, living hand-to-mouth in cramped housing on the city's outskirts." BBC. While women are becoming home helps, men are joining the gig workforce as delivery men. "India's gig workforce is 12 million strong and expected to double to 24 million by the end of this decade." BBC. Given all that, $1 an hour is the highest price for an Indian. Only if you are lucky.      

A loud 'No' please.

In a special session of the Parliament, "Formally known as the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyan, the Women's Reservation Bill is a constitutional amendment that seeks reservation of 33% of seats in the Lok Sabha and state legislative assemblies for women." TOI. But, why now? Exactly one week before assembly elections West Bengal and Tamil Nadu (wikipedia), both states ruled by opposition parties. The original bill passed in 2023 was to come into effect in 2034, based on the 2027 Census. However, the BJP has moved a Delimitation Bill prematurely, tying it to the Women's Reservation Bill (ET) even before the Census has been completed. Delimitation is meant to increase the number of seats in the Lok Sabha to reflect the growth in population. The problem is that the total fertility rate (TFR) is high in the northern Hindi-speaking belt while it is below replacement level in the South and East. wikipedia. "Projections suggest the number of Lok Sabha seats could rise from 543 to 753 if current population trends continue." Seats of southern states will rise from 129 to 144, which will be a fall from 24% of the Lok Sabha to 19%, while northern states will see a jump of 60% from 222 to 357. Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu and "his counterparts in other southern states are desperate to escape the sheer weight of numbers in the country's north. Naidu promised women Rs 25,000 if they had a third child, and also suggested extended maternity leave and a longer period of free education." ET. And yet, while other southern states have opposed the bills, Mr Naidu said that the present Women's and Delimitation Bills have his 100% support. ET. Why? What is Mr Naidu afraid of? In fact, with 240 seats, the BJP is well short of the 272 required for a majority and is only in power because of the support of the TDP of Mr Naidu with 16 seats and JDU's 12 seats from Bihar. wikipedia. In Bihar, JDU Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been sent to the Rajya Sabha and replaced by Mr Samrat Choudhary who switched from the JDU to the BJP. BBC. The Lok Sabha has 540 members at present so 271 will give a simple majority but a Constitutional Amendment requires two-thirds majority which means 360. The Wire. Mr Naidu can kill off the Delimitation Bills while supporting the Women's Reservation Bill. Mr Naidu should remember that the BJP has a habit of cannibalising its friends and destroying them in the process. He should see what happened to BJP's friends, the Shiv Sena, also a Hindu party, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCD) in Maharashtra, the Akali Dal in Punjab and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in Bihar. The Wire. Mr Eknath Shinde broke away from the Shiv Sena and was the chief minister of Maharashtra from June 2022 to December 2024. wikipedia. Now he is Deputy Chief Minister alongside Ms Sunetra Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) (wikipedia). In 2019, the undivided Shiv Sena had 56 seats and the NCP had 54, for a total of 110, while the BJP had 105 seats. Since 2024, the BJP has 132, while Mr Shinde's Sena and Ms Pawar's NCP have a total of 98 seats. PRS. Mr Naidu should prepare for sunset. Unless he stands up to the rapacious BJP. Say "NO". Loudly. 

Going backwards.

 "Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal...said India has achieved a record in exports of goods and services, with total shipments crossing USD 860 billion in 2025-26. Total services and merchandise exports were worth USD 825 billion in 2024-25." ET. "India's trade deficit widened to $119.3 billion in FY 2025-26 from $94.6 billion in the previous financial year, marking the second highest gap in the past 11 years, according to official data." Imports grew 6.4% year-on-year to $979.4 billion, driven by the high gold and silver prices, while exports grew 4.22%. Merchandise exports rose 1% to $441.78 billion. CNBCTV18. "India's nominal GDP ranking has dropped to sixth place in 2025, according to IMF data, mainly due to the rupee's fall against the dollar and updated base year calculations." However, India's economy is still growing strongly, as the real GDP growth has been revised upwards to 8.2% in the second quarter of FY 2025-26. Whalesbook. Foreign investors are selling out of Indian equities. "According to veteran investor Akash Prakash, FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) have been persistent sellers in Indian equities since October 2024, with outflows exceeding $45 billion over an 18-month period." "In aggregate terms, the selling accounts for nearly 1% of India's total market capitalisation, indicating pressure that surpasses levels seen during the global financial crisis." And yet, "Indian equities continue to trade at a steep premium of 50% compared to emerging market peers." CNBCTV18. It is because of systematic investment plans (SIP) (MFSH) said fund investor Shankar Sharma. "They are exiting because SIP money is entering. Selling equals buying." "Even in utopia, you can't have SIP and FPIs both buying together. Somebody's got to sell for them to buy," he said. "India's foreign exchange restrictions have made it costlier and more complex for overseas investors to hedge against rupee swings, denting the appeal of Indian bonds, while a war-driven hit to earnings prospects is adding fresh pressure on equities." "Steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to steady the rupee - including curbs aimed at limiting arbitrage trade" mean that "One-year hedging costs in the onshore markets have risen by about 30 basis points since the measures were introduced. The increase has been steeper offshore, with NDF (non-deliverable forwards) (Investopedia) hedging costs climbing nearly 70 basis points." Reuters. First the RBI forced banks to sell dollars in excess of $100 million, forcing banks to incur losses (TOI) and then it restricted rupee hedging in the onshore and offshore NDF markets (msn.com). As a result, "Banks are staring at potential losses running into hundreds of millions of dollars, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Hedging costs have jumped, making it harder for investors to buy protection." "Two senior foreign bankers said clients had questioned the RBI's seemingly arbitrary move." "Some foreign investors said they may stay away from India even after the current uncertainties ease, the bankers added." ET. The RBI had been trying to encourage foreign trade in the Indian rupee which would preserve foreign exchange and protect against sanctions by western countries. rbi.org.in. Now no one will be willing to touch the rupee with a hundred-foot barge pole (wytv.com) after this. Seems that the RBI is contradicting its own actions. A collective Brain Fog (Cleveland Clinic). Indians blame foreigners. Brainwashed. 

Food is not an allowance.

"Despite the sharp surge in global energy prices triggered by the ongoing West Asia conflict, the impact on India's retail inflation has remained limited so far, according to a report by Crisil Intelligence." "The report noted that although Brent crude prices rose about 45% in March and international natural gas prices jumped nearly 69% compared with February, the pass-through to domestic retail inflation has been muted." ET. Indeed, "Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) with base year 2024 for the month of March 2026 over March 2025 in 3.40%. (Provisional)." Food price inflation was 3.87%. pib. gov.in. "India's robust macroeconomic and financial sector fundamentals are likely to cushion the impact of sustained oil price shock, though economic growth could slow by up to 80 basis points (bps) if crude averages USD 130 per barrel in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings." "The agency warned that an energy shock would transmit through higher input costs, squeezed corporate margins, rising consumer prices and increased fiscal strain if the government steps in with subsidies." ET. Energy shock is already affecting the vulnerable. "India has more than 450 million internal migrants, according to the last census in 2011 and government estimates, forming the backbone of its informal economy." Food has become unaffordable as "Black market prices of cooking gas cylinders have soared beyond what laborers living hand-to-mouth can earn." HT. "At least 12 eateries in Delhi were forced to shut operations...due to shortage of commercial LPG cylinders," with black market prices rocketing to over Rs 5,000 per cylinder. MC. Many have lost their jobs and the wages that go with them. Uttar Pradesh (UP) raised the minimum wage of workers as "Protesters in Noida - a suburb of the national capital that houses industrial units including that of South Korean technology giant Samsung Electronics - had torched vehicles pelted stones...as they demanded higher pay." "Similar protests in the state of Haryana, an automaking hub, last week also led to its government ordering a 35% hike in minimum wages." "Around 40,000 workers took part in the Noida protests." Reuters. "UP Labor Minister Anil Rajbhar...described the violence during workers' protests in Noida as 'well-planned conspiracy' and said a possible Pakistan link is being investigated in the light of recent terror related arrests in the region." ET. It is hard to understand the plight of the low-paid when UP politicians awarded themselves an enormous rise in salary, pensions and family pensions + constituency allowance + secretarial allowance + daily allowance + medical allowance + public service allowance (when not working) in August 2025. HT. Rice can be cooked over an electric stove but chapati, or whole-wheat flatbread (wikipedia), is best cooked over a gas flame. And, North Indian and Pakistani cuisine are very similar. Royal Nawab. Food prices may have dropped but can't eat without cooking. Hunger is not Pakistani. Not asking for allowances. Just food.