An appalling abuse of uniform.

"Delhi Police said its investigation has revealed that 101 individuals with murder charges, 284 booked in dacoity and robbery cases, and 92 accused in sexual assault and other offences against women and children were part of the violence during the protester's march to Parliament on July 20." Apparently, a total of 2,873 criminals were involved in attacking cops and vandalising vehicles. TOI. Shouldn't these criminals have been safely locked up in prison? Whose job is it to prosecute criminals? "12 had criminal histories spanning at least 10 cases or more and among the rape accused, eight had been booked in multiple criminal cases." Appalling statistics. "A Rapid Action Force (RAF) jawan (a private), deployed at Connaught Place on July 20 during the Cockroach Janta Party-led 'Chalo-Sansad' march, fired at least seven rounds from his pellet gun, five of which hit peaceful protesters, an inquiry by the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)has revealed." The Wire. Appalling. Pellet guns cause horrific injuries, especially permanent blindness. "In 2016, Kashmir saw the biggest mass-blinding campaign. Of 12,000 people who were injured, at least 6,000 were hit by pellets during periods of unrest. The foreign media called it an 'epidemic of dead eyes'." "The youngest victim of pellets was one-and-a-half year old child, Hiba." NDTV. Appalling. Pellet guns, or shotguns, are generally used for hunting birds. "With a rifle, we must put a bullet into exactly the right spot, and killing is a question of precision. With a shotgun, the shot charge is spread over a large area, and killing is a question of statistical probability." (Hunting 101). In 2019, "On 2 November, the Government of India's Press Information Bureau released two maps that show all of the former (but contested) princely State of Jammu and Kashmir as now comprising of two entities: the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and the Union Territory of Ladakh. Both belong to India. All people in them are Indians." Lowy Institute. Deliberately blinding Indians. Appalling. "The Supreme Court...said police forces can be permitted to use pellet guns in exceptional situations, even as it took a plea seeking complete ban on use of metallic pellet guns to deal with law and order situations." ET. The government will claim every situation is exceptional. Appalling. "A video purportedly showing a Bihar Police officer firing an AK-47 rifle during a student protest in Siwan has triggered widespread debate over the use of assault weapons by law enforcement." At least three young men have sustained serious injuries. The officer has been suspended. News18. If deliberate blindness is allowed, why not liver, lungs or kidneys? Appalling. "Sandeep Lamba, a senior Delhi Police officer who has come under fire after videos surfaced on social media showing him slapping a woman protester during Monday's student protests in central Delhi has been removed from all security-related duties in New Delhi." HT. Is that sexual assault? Appalling. In one incident, "a video purportedly showed a group of protesters inside a Mumbai police vehicle recording a police officer, who allegedly threatened to plant 50 grams of narcotic powder in their pockets if they continue to protest." DH. A police officer with total contempt for the law. Appalling. The police have become a militia of the government, to suppress any form of protest with extreme violence. If you kill a criminal during a crime it will be self-defence. How do you defend yourself against goons in uniform? Appalling.     

In a trap.

"Government...said that there were 576 individuals who had disclosed a gross income of over Rs 1 billion during the financial year 2024-25, with 161 added during the year." It is a small fraction of a total of  around 81 million who filed returns in 2024-25. "So far this year, 40 million returns have been filed for FY 2025-26 with 31 July being the deadline." TOI. According to the Income Tax Return Statistics for FY 13 and FY 23 released by the income tax department, the middle class with salary incomes between Rs 1 million and Rs 5 million "has substantially increased its share of salary income over the decade." "But, it is not earning more per person on an average. Average salaries grew from Rs 1.686 million in FY 13 to Rs 1.733 million in FY 23 - a less than 3% growth over the decade and an average annual rate of growth of less than 0.3% a year," "While nominal (real plus inflation) gross domestic product (GDP) grew at around 10.5% a year over the decade," wrote Monica Halan. The middle class and the super rich multiplying, so people must be getting wealthy. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s latest Financial Stability Report, India's household debt reached 47.8% of GDP by December 2025. "Non-housing retail loans now account for 58.4% of household borrowings." And, "Gold loans have grown at a compound annual rate of 42.4% since March 2024." Net household financial savings have fallen from 11% to 7% of GDP in 2024-25, and "it is clear that low-income borrowers are increasingly using fresh loans to pay for consumption or an installment of a refinanced old loan," wrote Ajit Ranade. "According to the latest World Bank report, India's PCI (per capita income) of $2,760 places it 139th out of 182 countries, and firmly within the 47 lower-middle-income countries (LMICs, PCI between $1,136 and $4,495)." "India's PCI recorded an annual growth rate of 11.39% during the Manmohan Singh decade," but has grown at only 5.21% during the 12 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wrote Subhash C Garg. "About 75% of the Indian labor force is self-employed. Compare that with data for the three Asian countries that have just been promoted into the upper middle-income club: Vietnam (53.3%), the Philippines (36.1%) and Sri Lanka (42.1%)." "As for China, only 37% of its labor force is self-employed." India has too few large enterprises as in China or "a deep layer of mid-sized, often family-owned, export-competitive firms - the Mittelstand - that employed millions and dominated global niches" as in Germany, wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "The Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) of 2025 counts 79.2 million unincorporated non-agricultural establishments in India." "The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2023-24, reports that the average registered factory employs 73 workers. ASUSE shows the average unincorporated establishment employs only 1.6 workers. This is near-solo work." This is survival work because of a lack of regular well-paid jobs, wrote Saumitra Bhaduri & Shubham Anand. Out of about 900 million people of working age, "In 2024, about 28 million unemployed educated youth were looking for jobs; and about 100 million educated youth (mostly women) have stopped looking. Another 150 million youth are currently in education or training who will look for work." According to the National Crime Bureau report for 2024, "unemployed people form a large category among suicide victims" and suicide among students, especially of Class 10, Class 12 and higher-education is rising, wrote Profs Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. The population is ageing rapidly and so India risks being stuck in the middle-income trap (wikipedia). Which is great because politicians are dishing out unconditional cash transfers to women (BBC) to win elections. Students can commit suicide. They don't vote anyway.

The excellence of one.

On 25 July, "The youth-led Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) has called off its protest, hours after the resignation of India's education minister. Dharmendra Pradhan resigned after weeks of protests over exam paper leaks and testing irregularities." BBC. However, "Returning to Parliament,..just two days after stepping down over the alleged NEET paper leaks controversy, the BJP MP was greeted with chants of 'Dharmendra Pradhan zindabad (live forever)' and a hero's welcome from party colleagues." TOI. Wishing Pradhan eternal life, while our students commit suicide in despair, shows the callous indifference of the so-called representatives of the people (wikipedia) to the anguish of our betrayed children. "An analysis of media reports by India Today's OSINT team traced at least 93 NEET-linked reported student suicides in the last five years, peaking in 2025 with at least 32 deaths. In 2026 so far, at least 14 cases have already been documented." We mourn while they cheer. "Among emerging market peers, India has recorded the second-fastest pace of growth, but also the highest youth unemployment rate, at 16%." Germany and Japan "entered the demographic dividend phase - the economic growth potential that results from a higher share of the working-age population as compared to the dependent population - and delivered nearly 10% compound average growth rate in per capita GDP between 1950 and 2000." "India's strike rate of around 4.8% pales when compared with China (10.8%), Vietnam (10.2%) and South Korea (6.2%)." Mint. Since the resignation of Mr Pradhan, a multitude of self-appointed experts have propounded their own opinions as to why this government, which always responds with force and terror, gave in to a bunch of students. Perhaps, Manu Joseph is the most persuasive when he writes, "Higher education has hinged on a lie. That it can result in a good job." "But, in reality, it was always inequality that helped people secure such jobs." "Higher education was an artificial filter designed to reject millions of people." But "the government has increased the number of elite engineering and management courses, perhaps thinking, oddly, that if there are many engineers, there would be more jobs." The first Indian Institute of Technology was set up in 1956 at Kharagpur in Bengal. IIT Bombay opened in 1958, Madras and Kanpur in 1959 and Delhi in 1961 for a total of five. Today there are 23 IITs. wikipedia. The first All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) opened in 1956 in Delhi. Today there are around 25 called AIIMS. wikipedia. Weirdly, our enlightened leaders seem to believe that a name automatically transfers excellence. They do not seem to understand that an erudite faculty, state of the art infrastructure and hard-working, meritorious students create an institution of excellence. After all, there is only one Harvard, one Oxford and, thankfully so far, only one Indian Institute of Science, which is regularly ranked the highest in India. In 2025, "more than 40% of faculty positions across various AIIMS remain vacant, with some institutions reporting faculty vacancy rates exceeding 50% in 2025-26." NDTV. In June 2026, "Around 38% of sanctioned faculty posts are lying vacant across 22 Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) according to institution -wise data," which translates to "four out of every 10 teaching positions remaining unfilled". NDTV. As a result, "millions of graduates are both unemployed and unemployable." Building factories creates jobs. Putting names of elite institutes on buildings does not. It was a bluff. Backfired badly.   

Could it get worse?

"Applications for US unemployment benefits fell last week to an almost 60-year low," while "the European Central Bank rejected an immediate move to raise interest rates," South Korea's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter," and "The World Cup staycations and scorching weather helped Britain's private sector bounce back in July." ET. "The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits for the first time unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since the 1960s," as "Initial claims for state jobless benefits dropped by 22,000 - the largest decline in three months - to a seasonally adjusted 187,000 for the week ended July 18, the Labor Department said." Reuters. Why unexpected? Was it because the World Cup gave a bigger-than-expected boost to the hospitality sector, or was the eye jaundiced by hatred for President Donald Trump? "Europe is warming at roughly twice the global average," so that "at least 12,000 excess deaths were recorded across nine European countries during June's heatwave." "EU member states will need to spend close to 70 billion euros ($80 billion) every year until 2050 to adapt infrastructure and communities to rising temperatures." "Allianz projects that Germany could suffer economic losses of about $131 billion by 2030 if recent heat patterns persist." France could lose $240 billion, Italy $147 billion and Spain $120 billion. ET. Paradoxically, this winter could be hard for Europe. "Europe has rapidly replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG." Consequently, "Europe now competes with Asia and other regions in a global LNG market where supply disruptions can reverberate around the world almost instantly." Storage facilities are currently 55% full, the lowest level since 2021 and "Europe faces similar challenges in diesel." ET. Meanwhile, according to the World Gold Council central banks have "purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually for the past four years." Gold cannot be created like fiat currencies and is a hedge against inflation. ET. Central banks are reducing investments in US Treasuries and the dollar. The US needs foreign investors because of the huge deficits it runs. "The trade gap has been hovering around 3% of GDP for the last few years, and the current account deficit is closer to 4% of GDP." In 2004, "Japan's official holdings of US Treasuries accounted for 18% of all outstanding US debt held by the public, and in 2010, China's equivalent share represented 14%." Today they are down to 4% and 2% respectively. Today private investors are financing US deficits by buying into tech stocks. "Apple and Microsoft have triple-A credit rating, unlike the US government." The danger is that if markets fall, this flow could reverse. The deficits would become hard to finance. Reuters. The US sovereign credit rating is AA+ for both S&P's and Fitch Ratings and Aa1 for Moody's. World Government Bonds. On the other side of the pond, "The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering several options to mitigate its financial losses," as "ECB President Christine Lagarde confirmed...that policymakers would discuss raising minimum reserve requirements which means increasing the amount of cash banks must keep in an unremunerated account as a buffer in case of liquidity crunch." "Alternative options include not paying interest to banks on some of their excess reserves." Reuters. The US and the EU are the two biggest economies in the world. And they seem to be on edge. The times are interesting, already.

Not our Sanskaar.

Various global organisations publish indexes on nations ,based on different parameters, varying from terrorism to happiness. On happiness India stood at 116th in 2025, on corruption India ranked 91st, on human development it ranked 130th and on the Henley Passport Index ranked between 75th and 80th in 2026. Vajiram & Ravi. "The typical response of the Indian government has been to dismiss reports that are inconvenient and, in some cases, to go so far as to allege a conspiracy to 'taint India's image'." Not just furriners, this government rejects its own findings. "The first Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) report by the Union government showed unemployment at its highest level in five decades. When it was leaked, the government rejected it." "The fate of the 2017-18 consumption survey was worse; it was junked even after being approved by the National Statistical Commission." DH. Some things are too horrific to acknowledge. A couple of weeks ago," an 11-year-old girl left her home for her friend's birthday party." "She was kidnapped, raped, bundled into a sack and thrown into a pond by a gang of men while still alive." "In northwestern Rajasthan state, a 12-year-old girl was abducted, drugged and raped by multiple men over four days in various hotels before she was rescued" and "a 7-year-old girl was raped before being killed and her body thrown into an empty shaft of an under-construction shopping mall." Reuters.       If it can't be denied, it can be ignored. " Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh convicted of rape in 2017 and supposed to be serving a 20-year sentence was released on parole for 30 days in May. So far he has been released 15 times already for a total of 406 days and the latest jaunt will bring the total to 436 days. HT. Haryana has a BJP government. wikipedia. In 2022, "The government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the premature release of 11 men who were convicted of the gangrape of a pregnant Muslim woman and murder of 14 members of her family, including her three-year-old daughter." They walked out of jail on 15 August, India's Independence Day. BBC. "Released from jail under the Gujarat government's remission policy, they were greeted with garlands at the Vishwa Hindu Parishad office." India Today. Gujarat has a BJP government with an overwhelming majority wikipedia. "The 11 men, convicted for the rape of Bilkis Bano and released by the Gujarat government after 15-odd years in jail, are 'Brahmins' and have 'good sanskaar (mentality)', the BJP's sitting MLA, CK Raulji, from Godhra has said." NDTV. The BJP stands for Hindutva. "The term Hindutva was first defined in the early 1920s by by an Indian nationalist activist Vinayak Damodar Savarkar. Today it is most closely associated with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),...and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a non-political Hindu nationalist paramilitary organization." Britannica. What is most infuriating is that the word "Hindu" is being associated with rape and rapists, which is repulsive for vast majority of us. Incredibly, women are also staunch supporters of the BJP. "Gradually, everyone will seek refuge in the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Sanatan culture because this is our own culture," said Bollywood actress and BJP MP Kangana Ranaut. TOI. Rape is not Sanatan culture. It is definitely not our Sanskaar. Only the vile deny it.    

Job half done.

"India's Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) has called off its five-week-long protest, hours after Education Minister Education Dharmendra Pradhan resigned. The CJP has called it a win for democracy and thousands of jubilant supporters continue to celebrate at Jantar Mantar, the main protest venue in Delhi." BBC. Pradhan may have gone but the regime is still in place, wounded and many times more dangerous. Within hours "The FIR (First Information Report) registered in connection with the July 20 violence near Parliament has attempt to murder charges, along with multiple other serious provisions of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita (BNS)." ET. But, there is no report of similar charges against those who fired pellet guns on unarmed students, causing life-altering injuries and could have caused death. Independent. In fact, Indian police refuse to file FIRs for ordinary people even in cases of rape, severe assault and alleged murder. Indian Kanoon. Motorcycle rider Kamal Dhyani 25, died after falling into a newly dug pit in Janakpuri, Delhi on 6 February. His brother alleged that they visited six police stations when he did not return home at night, but received no help." The Print. No police person is ever seen on the streets of Delhi helping people. The CJP must realize that the struggle is not over, it's just beginning. This regime will extract its vengeance one at a time. To that end, "Four facial recognition system (FRS) units have been installed around the protest site at Jantar Mantar to identify wanted criminals, absconders and history- sheeters, Police sources said." DH. Oh yeah! And the wolf will protect the lamb. Will they delete all the videos if they find no criminal? If not, they will be the secret police (wikipedia) of India like in China and North Korea. A 28-year-old software engineer Shrey Gupta in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, set up a website named The Unbadged. "He named it after the men in uniform who were not wearing their regulation name badges while they lathi-charged, fired at or teargassed students marching peacefully to Parliament." Around 10.30 PM on 22 July, four men in plainclothes came to his apartment, grabbed him and took him to the police station where he was  questioned about "his educational background, his salary, his addresses, his parents and extended family (even about what his uncle's children did), his bank accounts and his social media profiles and his online accounts were photographed. The Wire. The backlog in so-called fast track courts reached 250,000 on 31 December. TOI. So that's a con as well. Without delay the leaders of the CJP must set up a network of lawyers, willing to work pro bono (wikipedia) or for a small fee and set up a fund to pay for the legal fees for those who are persecuted. They must also work against the BJP in every election starting with the municipal and corporation elections in 2026 (wikipedia), going on to assembly elections in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in 2027 (wikipedia). They have to realize that the regime will do anything to stay in power because of the crimes they have committed. Veteran Congress leader Pawan Khera said, "Let our government come to power. When we recount these 12-15 years, BJP leaders will not be able to step out without security." DH. Pradhan means 'prime'. Shabdkosh. As in Pradhan (prime) Mantri (minister). Pradhan has gone. Job half done.    

Borrowing to repay.

"Foreign currency deposits from non-resident Indians (NRIs) have staged a sharp turnaround" "Since the implementation of the new RBI Swap Facility, FCNR(B) flows have totaled $17 billion in roughly 40 days, from June 8 to July 17, 2026." "As against $7,076 million of inflows in 2024-25, the FCNR(B) flows dipped to $946 million in 2025-26, a sharp fall of 87%." FE. May be a great start, but "HDFC Bank MD & CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan said potential inflows under the scheme may be lower than initially expected because tax rules make the 'borrowing to invest' option unattractive for many overseas Indians outside West Asia and Singapore." And "this could reduce the initial estimate of $60-80 billion in potential inflows." TOI. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has likely used part of the initial inflows from its foreign -currency deposit drive to unwind a portion of its massive foreign exchange forward book, economists said." "The RBI's net short dollar forward book stood at a record $106.6 billion as of May 31, reflecting its heavy use of forwards to cushion the rupee," and "Of this, nearly $29 billion was concentrated in near-tenor contracts maturing within three months." Reuters. Which means that the RBI has converted its short term borrowing to longer term, but probably at much higher interest rates. "Assume that an NRI takes a loan of 162 million yen at, say, 4% per annum," converts it to $1 million, and then invests it in an FCNR(B) account at around 6.5% interest for 3 or 5 years. The RBI covers the hedging cost of around 3% and swaps the dollars for rupees to inject liquidity into the system to bring down borrowing costs, wrote Madan Sabnavis. The RBI will have to pay from its foreign exchange reserves when these bonds mature. Despite the influx of around $20 billion, "The rupee has lost nearly 2% this month for the weakest performance among Asian peers," and hence, "The central bank's limited and intermittent intervention has surprised traders who expected stronger support after Governor Sanjay Malhotra said it would do 'whatever is required' to ensure orderly currency moves." "Internally, officials are divided over how aggressively the central bank should intervene to support the rupee, said three sources." Reuters. RBI's confusion is because of the flare up of the conflict between Iran and the US. "Daily vessel transits of the Strait of Hormuz were steady at three for each of the past three days, according to preliminary ship tracking data, amid continuing shipping risks in the Middle East as oil prices surged back to $100 a barrel." Reuters. The cost of India's basket of crude fell from $114.48 per barrel in April 2026 to $79.1 this month. ppac.gov.in. Brent crude is selling at $96.78 per barrel this morning. oilprice.com. The RBI must be unsure about how long the conflict will last and how high oil prices will climb, which will determine the drain on its forex reserves. Veteran investor Shankar Sharma said that the FCNR(B) scheme "does not address India's external-sector challenges and will effectively finance foreign investors' exits from Indian equities." MC. What is worrying is that the RBI is also monetizing the government's fiscal deficit which is absolutely not its responsibility. The RBI transferred a record Rs 2.78 trillion to the government as dividend from its surplus (ET) and has also bought government bonds (including treasure bills) in open market operations (OMO) to a total of Rs 21.34 trillion (wrote Sabanvis). The RBI is collecting both foreign and domestic debt. Will it pay back by printing rupees and selling gold? That'll be RIP. For the rupee.      

Not falling for the old con trick.

"For days the streets and parks in the center of India's capital have seethed with the biggest demonstrations it has seen in years," even as "they were met with police violence, struck with sticks and batons." CNN. If people in other parts of the world were unaware of Narendra Modi government's ferocity, they are now fully informed. "Nothing is more important than the welfare and future of our youth! We have decided to set up fast-track courts to ensure swift and stringent punishment for those involved in paper leaks," said Mr Modi. It is unbelievable that the prime minister is trying to con us with platitudes. Firstly, someone has to detect the leak of questions. "The PDF file containing the questions and answers for this year's medical entrance exam NEET" "was received via WhatsApp by the operator of a paying guest facility in Rajasthan's Sikar. Subsequently, the complainant, Shashikant Sukhar, had the contents of this file cross-verified through an associate." NDTV. Was the file sent accidentally to Mr Sukhar? If so, undetected leaks could be occurring in every exam. "At least 21 students have committed suicide because of the pressure of having to take the exam again. Reddit. Will your fast-track courts bring these children back? "Delhi Police took over people, many of them listed as 'bad characters', into preventive custody," "including non-students from Punjab, UP, Rajasthan and Haryana, were being mobilized to travel to the capital." Why can't non-students support the protests? Millions of taxpayer rupees are spent to bus people in to hear Mr Modi's speeches. The Wire. Do all them understand what he is saying? "A steady stream of food delivery riders carrying meals, snacks and bottled water is helping sustain a youth-led movement that has sprung up in the heart of India's capital." "From Kerala to the USA, orders are coming from everywhere," said rider Suraj Kumar. Reuters. These could be coming from non-students. Horror! According to an advisory, all shops, offices and restaurants must shut by 6.30 pm and mobile internet has been blocked in central Delhi, (TOI) possibly to prevent protesters from communicating with each other. But, this generation grew up on computers and the internet. "Intercepting or tracing Bluetooth-aided mesh messaging, allegedly used by protesters...may prove to be an extremely difficult task for Delhi Police." TOI. Delhi Metro has shut 17 stations near the protest site to prevent protesters from getting there. nowsonair.gov.in. At least four students have been treated for injuries caused by pellets. After 12 hours of running from one hospital to another, Sahil had a pellet removed from his right eye at AIIMS, with only 1% chance of recovery of vision, while Irshad Shaikh had multiple pellets removed from different parts of his body. TOI. When the matter of alleged police brutality, with video evidence, was raised in the Supreme Court, Chief Justice of India (CJI) Surya Kant said, "We are not interested in videos, we don't have time to watch..." "Don't waste our time We don't want to watch videos." ET. The CJI is not interested in evidence of criminal assault by the police causing grievous bodily harm on unarmed students. What, pray, is he interested in? The Supreme Court has just returned from its annual summer vacation stretching from 1 June to 12 July The Hindu. Who has the time to watch crucial evidence? The Supreme Court has 49,248 cases pending for over 1 year, 24,611 for over five years, 10,094 for over 10 years, 558 for over 20 years and 26 for over an incomprehensible 30 years. TIE. Because the court works for only 190-193 days a year. India Today. Mr Modi may feel that he can wait out the protesters. After all, people have to go to work. Not really, there is no work. According to the State of Working India report from the Azim Premji University, "Nearly 40% of graduates aged 15-25 - and 25% of those aged 25-29 - are jobless, far higher than the less educated." BBC. They have the education to understand Mr Modi's con trick. They are angry. And, they have time.

Talk to the Iranians directly.

"Iran yesterday warned that if Tehran is prevented from selling oil, no other country in the region would be able to do so either, signaling the possibility of a broader disruption to energy supplies." Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, "the security of regional energy infrastructure and the Strait of Hormuz depends on the absence of US forces." ET. "On 8 April 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan." "On 21 April, President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely. On 8 July, Trump announced that the ceasefire is over." wikipedia. This was because, "Despite the memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached in June 2026," "Iran sought to assert hegemonic control over the strait and eventually collect fees on ships passing through." "It followed up on its threats by firing at multiple ships, including three commercial vessels on July 6-7." The US was forced to retaliate. Britannica. Iran may be overplaying its hand. "The Strait is valuable while the traffic through it increases day by day, not when it decreases," Ghalibaf said. Iran may cause problems in the short term but other Gulf states are already planning pipelines to bypass the strait. "Oil pipelines are straightforward engineering projects, and can be built at what feels like lightning speed compared with other infrastructure." "Abu Dhabi is already moving ahead; once its half-built new pipeline, with a capacity of about a 1.5 million barrels per day, enters operation by the end of 2027, it will reduce the amount of oil that needs to cross Hormuz to about 10.5 million barrels." ET. Despite Iran's efforts the international price of oil has not risen catastrophically. Because, "When the bombing began 41/2 months ago, the world was already awash in oil. Add to that the coordinated release of brimming reserves," and China staying on the sidelines. "Meanwhile, two major oil producers in the Middle East began to make more use of cross-desert pipelines that avoid the fraught strait altogether." ET. Iran's proxy, the Houthis, "who control areas near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the opposite end of the Arabian Peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz, said on 20 July they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in what some analysts have viewed as a tactical move by Iran to seek leverage." Reuters. "At least seven oil tankers have made U-turns close to Yemen since the Iran-linked Houthi group announced a 'maritime embargo' against Saudi Arabia,...ship-tracking data show." BBC. The US has issued fresh sanctions targeting "Ali Ansari, an Iranian banker and businessman based in Dubai. "The Treasury said Ansari had diverted publicly funded wealth into an extensive overseas portfolio of real estate and commercial holdings to enrich himself, government elites and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)." Reuters. On 6 July, "Tens of millions of barrels of Iranian oil already on tankers have been left in limbo after the US walked back a waiver," and "There are around 63 million barrels of oil currently on the water, either in transit or idling, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Vortexa data." ET. Having killed over 30,000 civilian protesters in January 2026 (wikipedia), the hardliners in Iran might feel that they cannot afford to be seen to be yielding any advantage to the US. International pressure on the US will mount by the day, while they have nothing to lose. Has the US been talking to the Iranian people? If not, they should use a Persian Lord Haw-Haw, who was also an American (wikipedia) to tell Iranians over the radio how the hardliners are preventing peace and prosperity. The phrase Allahu Akbar means 'God is Greatest' (jibreel.app). When Mojtaba Khamenei claims to be Supreme Leader (wikipedia) he is making himself the equal to or greater than Allah. Which makes him an 'Al Murtadu' meaning an 'Apostate', and an apostate deserves the death punishment in Islam (islamqa.info). By killing Muslims the IRGC and Basij have become 'Takfiri'  (wikipedia) and also deserve to be punished. A few machine pistols and ammunition in the right hands could also help. The US should quickly win the war, instead of playing with firecrackers. Finish it. 

Drop the invitations.

"Indian activist and educationist Sonam Wangchuk, on hunger strike for the past 20 days in Delhi, has been forcibly removed from the protest site." "Videos from the protest site on Saturday showed chaos erupting just before 07.30 local time (02.00 GMT) when dozens of police and paramilitary personnel swooped in on the stage where the activist was lying down. Protesters who tried to stop them were pushed away." BBC. Indian police behaving like the Gestapo (wikipedia) at the behest of the government is common in India. Uttar Pradesh (UP) Police cremated the body of the Hathras gang rape victim in the middle of the night and beat up her family members, they alleged. BBC. Three of the four rapists have been found innocent while the fourth has been jailed on a lesser charge. NDTV. "Tribal families in Madhya Pradesh's (MP) Chhatarpur are protesting against the Ken-Betwa River Link Project through symbolic acts such as funeral pyre and noose protests, demanding justice." They fear for their livelihood. India Today. Needless to say the villagers have been removed forcibly by police, starting at 5 am.TOI. "Around a thousand Punjab farmers on their way to Delhi to take part in the Kisan Mahapanchayat protest against the proposed India-US trade deal were stopped at the Shambhu border yesterday as Haryana Police erected barricades." The Print. Yesterday, "Thousands have gathered again in the Indian capital Delhi a day after a police crackdown on supporters of India's Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), a youth-led movement seeking education reforms and resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan." On 20 July, Police had used baton charges and tear gas to prevent protesters marching to the Parliament to present their grievances. BBC. Pictures by Reuters show the young students being brutally beaten, police firing tear gas and dragging away some by force, with blood pouring down the faces of the protesters. Some are lying unconscious on the ground. Reuters. Police claim 180 of their comrades have been injured. Sadly, most Indians do not trust or believe the police, civil servants or politicians any more. Most terrifying, a photo by The Wire shows security personnel, shielding behind an armored personnel carrier, while aiming automatic rifles at unarmed protesters. Does it mean that, given the order, they will have no hesitation in slaughtering young students protesting against their lives and careers being destroyed by leaks of question papers? The BJP governs UP, MP, Haryana, Delhi and the Centre. "In an unfortunate incident, Times Now reporter Dev Kotak was assaulted by a large group of protesters at Delhi's Jantar Mantar on Tuesday, 21 July, amid ongoing demonstrations. Kotak claimed a mob of over 100 people attacked him." TN. Thankfully, Mr Kotak's photograph shows no injury or bruising, unlike what the protesters suffered. It could have been a false flag operation (Britannica) by Bhakts (devotees) who are the Basij Militia (Britannica) of the regime. On the other hand, Kanika Katiyar of NDTV was protected as the protesters formed a human wall around journalists, washed tear gas from their eyes and even provided face masks. India is classed as an electoral autocracy in a V-Dem report. The Wire. It is amazing that Western leaders preach sermons on democracy but keep inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to their countries, thereby legitimizing this corrupt, dictatorial regime. No need to say anything. Just drop him quietly. Say the time is not convenient. Hopefully, he will get the message. Once the tourism stops.  

A bagful of goodies.

The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect on 15 July. In 2025, India recorded a GDP of USD 3.96 trillion, while the UK economy stood at USD 3.84 trillion, reflecting the significance of both economies on global trade. pib.gov.in. To put it into perspective, the US GDP at current prices stood at $30.77 trillion in 2025, that of the European Union (EU) stood at $21.24 trillion, while that of China stood at $19.5 trillion. World Bank. At best this is an agreement of minnows. Still, "The real significance of the Britain-India CETA is not that tariffs are coming down. It is that two increasingly complementary economies are creating the certainty that businesses need to invest, expand and build for the long term," wrote PD Singh. "India's economy remains on a sustained growth path supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, government officials said." "The government has maintained its emphasis on capital expenditure," so that "In April and May 2026, capital expenditure stood at Rs 2.51 trillion compared to Rs 2.21 trillion during the same period last year, registering a 14% jump." "In June 2026, gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose 13.9% to Rs 1.95 trillion, compared to Rs 1.71 trillion in June 2025." HT. Since GST is a consumption tax, its rise hints at increasing consumer spending which could be a sign of increasing affluence. But it is causing financial problems for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). "Under Section 15 of the MSMED Act, 2006, buyers are legally obligated to settle vendor bills within 45 days if a written contract exists, or 15 days in its absence." Yet, "Large private entities and government bodies routinely stretch payment cycles to 90, 120 or 180 days." At the same time, "GST operates strictly on an accrual basis, not cash-flow basis. If an invoice is generated, the tax must be paid by the 20th of the next month," wrote Ajit Ranade. Naturally, this causes cash flow problems for MSMEs. Not surprising, "India has not featured among the world's 50 safest countries for investors in 2026, according to the Global Investment Risk and Resilience Score 2026 by Henley and Partners." BT. In 2025, India was ranked at an embarrassing 104th "showing moderate resilience but elevated risks. gktoday.in. The scary thing is that it is not just MSMEs that have cash problems, even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could get trapped in a problem of its own making. "Over the past two years, India's central bank built one of the world's largest bearish dollar bets to support a persistently weak rupee. It now faces the challenge of unwinding that position without destabilizing the currency market." "The book had ballooned to a record $106.7 billion in May, as per Bloomberg calculations based on RBI data." "To attract capital, the RBI has offered to fully cover hedging costs for banks raising three- to five-year foreign currency deposits from non-resident Indians (NRI)." ET. NRIs will have to be paid back in foreign currency. In 2013, the rupee fell from 55 to one dollar in May to near 69 in August. Known as the 'Taper Tantrum'. Then governor of the RBI Raghuram Rajan mobilized $30 billion through an FCNR scheme. ET.  According to veteran investor Shankar Sharma, "During FY2013-14, foreign portfolio investors bought nearly $14 billion worth of Indian equities despite the taper tantrum. In contrast, they have sold about $26.5 billion worth of Indian equities so far in FY2026-27." Today, the RBI's FCNR(B) scheme will only fund the exit of foreign investors. MC. Trade agreements are seductive, promising a wealth of goodies. But, what will we export if MSMEs are failing and if the RBI runs out of money? Risks are definitely elevated. Stratospheric.           

Insecurity from security agreement.

"US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years," and "US retail sales rose modestly in June," as "Cheaper gas offered households some breathing room for discretionary purchases last month." "US consumer confidence rose in early June to a five-month high." "China's economy slowed more than expected in the second quarter," as "Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 4.3% from a year ago." ET. In the US, "The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% on a year-on-year basis, down from a 4.2% increase in May, said the Labor Department. ET. China's "Official GDP figures showed the world's second largest economy grew in the second quarter by 4.3%, below Beijing's annual target, and after a 5% rise in the first quarter." Exports jumped 27% year-on-year in June and new home prices contracted by 0.1%, BBC. After peaking in 2021, "China's share of global GDP has fallen in nominal terms from 18% to 16.5%, while the US share has risen to 26%." "In real terms, independent estimates now put China's growth closer to zero than to the official target of 4.5-5%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. China's total debt has risen to 350% of GDP, but is still pushing new debt into manufacturing industries, replacing the property bubble with a new one. "Net foreign direct investment is negative. Last year, a record $425 billion in capital flowed out of Chinese financial markets." And, "The number of Western expats living in China has fallen markedly." Beijing is dumping its manufactured goods on the rest of the world, so the backlash is growing. Perhaps to divert people's attention from a deteriorating economy, Beijing is resorting to threatening Taiwan. "Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence on Monday (today) detected two sorties by PLA aircraft, seven PLAN vessels and one official ship operating around its territory." "Meanwhile yesterday, the MND said that it detected 10 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN vessels and 3 official ships operating around Taiwan." TOI. Apparently, Taiwan is preparing a "hellscape" strategy to stop  a Chinese invasion that seems to  concentrate on an attack by the Chinese Navy and occupation forces but how will it deal with an overwhelming aerial assault? mwi.westpoint.edu. "Taiwan must work together to protect its democracy and not become a part of China, President Lai Ching-Te said yesterday, calling on members of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to oppose the 'red terror' coming from Beijing." Reuters. Bound to infuriate the Chinese barbarians. Meanwhile, China's "sweeter than honey" Iron Brother Pakistan (CIIS) is realizing that the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SDMA) with Saudi Arabia, signed on 17 September 2025 (wikipedia) may actually incur some action. "Attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis this week have frustrated Pakistan and threaten to draw Islamabad into the conflict, complicating any future role it may have as a mediator between the United States and Iran." "Pakistan's frustration appears rooted in growing concerns that Houthi involvement may be more likely to draw Pakistan into the conflict," as "Pakistani soldiers are deployed near the Saudi border with Yemen, two Pakistani officials said, increasing their direct exposure." Reuters. Couple of days back, "Saudi Arabia has renewed its condemnation of Iranian attacks targeting civilian and vital infrastructure, including a power generation facility and water desalination plant in Kuwait." Gulf News. What if Arab states decide enough is enough and declare an all out war against Iran? Pakistan has a 909 km (565 miles) border with Iran. wikipedia. Will it be forced to fight across its own border? Security agreement could lead to insecurity. Perhaps, the 'Iron Brothers' will rust away. Good for us.    

Promises must be kept.

On 2 July, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi held Annual Summit-level talks with his Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi in New Delhi," which "provided an opportunity for both sides to review and strengthen the full spectrum of bilateral cooperation as well as exchange of views on regional and global issues of mutual interest." newsonair.gov.in. "Within hours of India and Japan unveiling a series of agreements on defence, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, energy security and economic resilience, Beijing cautioned that cooperation between countries should not target a third party," meaning "China's economic, strategic and military interests." ET. India-Nippon bhai (brother) bhai? Maybe not. In December 2015, "Japan will provide $12 billion of soft loans to build India's first bullet train, the two nations announced during a visit by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that also yielded deeper defence ties and a plan for civil nuclear cooperation." NDTV. Sadly, former Japan's vice minister of economy, trade and industry Hideki Makihara "alleged in a social media post on July 15 that the Indian side's 'sheer recklessness' stood out during meetings and negotiations on the project and New Delhi did not 'keep promises'." "The minister in charge was especially awful - if the top guy's like that, there's no way to have any decent dealings," he said. A Japanese engineer based in India, Isao Tsujimura "contended that India was opting for European-origin signalling equipment and a new Indian high-speed train to launch the first section," which will be incompatible and that "India's Shinkansen project will almost certainly end up being a pipe dream." HT. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw has said the Bullet Train Project is generating significant employment and will provide additional opportunities during operation." newsonair.gov.in. The hon'ble minister seems confused about what a train is for. The sole purpose of any train must be to transport passengers in complete safety, comfort and on time.  As is to be expected, India's External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, "It is an individual opinion and at considerable variance with facts." Which means the Japanese minister is lying, but Hideki had already said, "They just don't keep promises, no matter what." Which means Indians lie habitually. NDTV. Seems that Mr Hideki 'got his retaliation in first' (wikipedia). "Sheer recklessness" can be very costly. "Barely a decade after abandoning the original deal for 126 twin-engine Dassault Rafale fighters under the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is believed to have finalized a Letter of Request (LoR) to France for the acquisition of 114 of the same aircraft type for the IAF (Indian Air Force)." Incompetently, "Eight years after being scrapped by the BJP-led Union government in 2016," what was "a $10-12 billion contract MMRCA program for 126 Rafales, with extensive industrial participation and technology transfer to Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. for the local manufacture of 108 aircraft," will now cost $40 billion, nearly four times as much, "despite involving far fewer aircraft and a far less defined industrial framework." The Wire. Such haphazard work is common. After just 79 days, "The Delhi-Dehradun Expressway, built at a cost of Rs 120 billion, has developed large potholes,...with videos of the damaged road going viral on social media." ET. Good thing we have changed our delusion from 'Vishwaguru' (teacher to the world) to 'Vishwamitra' (friend of the world) (Lowy institute). But, does anyone want to be friends with us? Dicey.   

Playing with percentages.

"Global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 before edging up to 2.8% in 2027, with India also set to 'lose a step' amid broader moderation in activity, according to a Moody's Analytics report." "The report said the artificial intelligence investment cycle has emerged as the biggest counterweight  to the global slowdown." But, it has created a " 'K-shaped world economy' where countries and industries integrated into the technology value chain continue to outperform those grappling with higher energy costs and weaker demand." ET. "According to China's GDP growth report,...the country's economy expanded by 4.3% in the April-June quarter." ABP. Whereas, India's GDP grew at 7.8% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (January-March 2026) and by 7.7% in the full financial year 2025-2026. NDTV. India continues to remain one of the largest importers of Chinese goods. China's GDP at current prices was $19.5 trillion in 2025 (WB), so 4.3% of that comes to about $839 billion, while India's GDP at current prices was $4 trillion in 2025 (WB) and 7.8% of that would be $312 billion, less than half of what China added to its economy. India has helped generously. Our trade deficit with China was $116 billion in 2025-26 and will be higher this year. "In the first half of 2026, India's imports from China touched a record $79.41 billion." The Wire. The India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) came into effect three days ago. "By granting zero-duty access on nearly 99% of India's exports, covering almost 100% of trade value, the CETA is expected to strengthen India's exports competitiveness." In 2025-26, India's merchandise exports to the UK was $13.44 billion, while imports were $11.68 billion giving a surplus of $1.765 billion. In services, India exported worth $21.66 billion and imported $13.78 billion, giving a surplus of $7.88 billion. pib.gov.in. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), argues that while "free trade agreements (FTAs) can enable market access, they are no substitute for a strong manufacturing base." "India must shift its focus from tariff negotiations to domestic competitiveness." Imports from our newer FTA partners, Australia, the United Arab Emirates and Switzerland are rising twice as fast as exports because developed economies already maintain low import tariffs. ET. "This decade, a net total of 6,75,000 people emigrated each year, up from 3,25,000 in the 2010s." "A chunk of this outflow from India is 'brain drain', including skilled workers and university students, exactly the talents India needs to compete in advanced fields." At the same time foreign direct investment (FDI) has been weak. FDI has surged to 4% of GDP in Vietnam, but "That figure never surpassed 1.5% in India, and it is now just 0.1%, which is one-sixth of the emerging market average," wrote Ruchir Sharma. In addition, "India's R&D expenditure remains structurally low. In 2023, it stood at 0.6% of GDP,...and has been stuck in a narrow 0.6-0.9% for more than three decades." South Korea and Israel spend 4% of GDP, the US spends 3.5% and China spends 2.6%. "India's industrial R&D expenditure in 2023 was $7.4 billion." Nvidia spends about that much while Alphabet spends five times as much, wrote Prof Saumitra Bhaduri. All of this means that the Indian economy is unable to create jobs. "The Union government had inherited a youth unemployment rate (UR) of 2.2% (2012 data). By 2017-18, this tripled to 6.1%, the highest in 45 years. The youth UR also tripled to 18% over that period." Shockingly, 40% of all youth (15-29 years) in the workforce are unpaid family labor," wrote Profs Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida. GDP is growing and so are unemployment and trade deficits. Which to celebrate?    

Dust saves lives.

"As Europe grapples with intense summer heat waves and temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius in several countries," one Indian wondered why the fuss, when we see temperatures up to 48 Celsius. Climate policy expert Siddharth Singh explained that European cities such as Paris are situated at higher latitudes and summer days are longer than in India. Also, "India's atmosphere often contains higher levels of suspended particulate matter, which can scatter sunlight and alter how heat is experienced. However, Europe has clearer skies, which makes direct sunlight feel more intense." News 18. A study by Piyush Narang and Ashok Gadgil from the India Energy and Climate Center at the University of California Berkley, US found that, "One day of extreme heat causes about 3,400 excess deaths across India, while a five-day heat wave causes nearly 30,000." But, "granular spatial-temporal data data on how heat waves affect mortality in India's districts remain inaccessible to common researchers." NDTV. If it wasn't for dust in the air millions could die. So, more pollution could save more. According to the Delhi Jal Board, Delhi's drains contribute 76% more wastewater to the Yamuna River than previously estimated. "The estimate of wastewater flow in the 22 drains that enter Yamuna along the stretch between Wazirabad and Okhla has been revised from 750.4 million gallons per day (mgd) in May 2025 to 1324.4 mgd in May 2026." HT. "It is expected that AI infrastructure will consume water roughly equal to annual domestic needs of 1.3 billion people as well as 945 terawatt-hours of electric power by 2030." "Currently, almost 600 million Indians face high to extreme water stress, and more than 21 major cities face a threat of groundwater depletion." "In 2031-2032, the electricity demand from data centers alone will be 13.56 GW," wrote Prof Debulal Thakur. Less water, more dust, less heatstroke, it's for our good. "The just-released sixth National Family Health Survey shows that India's child malnutrition rate was at a substantial 32% in 2023-24," "far higher than sub-Saharan Africa's 20%-22% levels." Severe wasting (too thin for height) for children under five is at 19%. TNIE. Of course, water is essential for growing food. To save money on importing petroleum, 20% mixture with ethanol has been made mandatory in India. "It aims at improving energy security, supporting farmers, and reducing environmental impact through greater use of domestically produced renewable fuel." pib.gov.in. Righteous! And so, water and land are diverted from food to ethanol. Union Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari "rejected allegations of a conflict of interest and personal gain over his push for the ethanol blending program." "He told TOI that his sons' business had a small share of ethanol and their contribution to the overall kitty was meager." TOI. The share may be meager now but the Minister "has officially approved the regulations for E100 fuel, paving the way for vehicles that can run on 100% ethanol." NDTV. From 20% to 100% is a jump of 500% in business. Clever. The dangers are multiplying. "Higher incentive for ethanol is reshaping cultivation and raising water stress. Food grains have overtaken sugarcane as ethanol feedstock, risking food security. Farmers are shifting to maize and away from pulses, oilseeds and other cereals." BT. In a little ray of hope, "In what could be a landmark decision, the Raipur District Consumer Redressal Commission has ruled in favor of a vehicle owner who alleged that the use of ethanol-blended petrol (E20) damaged his vehicle." DH. If it reaches the Supreme Court it will be definitely overturned. So, there it is. Indians may die from thirst or hunger, but dust will reduce deaths from heatstroke. Depend on the 'mai baap sarkar'.    

Factory in the UK.

 China's control over the supply of lithium is an opportunity for Offgrid Energy Labs whose "ZincGel platform is built on zinc-bromine chemistry, which the founders say offered the best balance of safety, longevity and commercial viability for stationery energy storage." "Today, its manufacturing facility is in the UK, while its technology - developed through years of R&D in India - is being stationed for applications ranging from AI data centers to renewable energy storage." ET. It is wonderful that the technology was invented in India but it is concerning that the company chose the UK for its manufacturing factory. One reason may be a lack of workers. "Every weekday morning at 6.30 am in India's factory clusters - Manesar, Noida, Dholera, Hosur and many more -" factory supervisors "reach out to the local labor contractors to round up as many workers as possible, depending on the day's shortage on the factory floor." But they do not get as many as they want. "Gig jobs offer faster earnings, more autonomy and daily payouts, even when the overall cost to the company is lower." Factory wages, when factored for inflation, have not increased in a decade, wrote Megha Mandavia. In April, "factory workers (in Noida, UP) blocked roads, demanding higher wages and better working conditions." "They earn between Rs 10,000 and Rs 15,000 a month - wages that have remained largely unchanged for years." They had almost nothing left after paying for rent and food and were upset after Haryana increased wages by 35%. BBC. "They were paying me Rs 15,000 a month. I was working 12 hours, six days a week." "I can make that same money by making and selling clay diyas in my village," said 20-year-old Raj Prajapati. In 2024, Russia granted 72,000 work permits to skilled workers from India. Despite the war with Ukraine, workers are drawn by wages of up to $700 (Rs 63,000) per month to work in Russia, wrote Devina Sengupta. "Romania has expressed its readiness to create a pathway to employ 30,000 skilled Indian professionals every year." newsonair.gov.in. Romania has a population estimated at 19 million and a GDP of $950.384 billion. wikipedia. India's GDP at current prices is $4.15 trillion (4,150 billion), but GDP per capita is a paltry $2,810. IMF. India is the fastest growing economy in the world. The IMF's World Economic Outlook Update projects India to grow at 7% in this calendar year and at 6.4% in the next. newsonair.gov.in. But, "During the 1990s, every percentage point of GDP growth yielded roughly 0.41% growth in formal employment. By early 2026, that employment elasticity had plummeted to 0.01%. In plain terms: economic growth is no longer a labor sponge." "This is the '0.01 trap' - a state where the economy can double in size while people's well-being does not improve," wrote Ejaz Ghani. "According to the latest World Bank report, India's PCI (per capita income) of $2,760 places it at 139th out of 182 countries, and firmly within the 47 lower-middle-income countries (LMICs, PCI between $1,136 and $4,495)." Bangladesh is $2,840, Bhutan $4,310 and the Maldives $12,950. Sri Lanka recently moved to the upper-middle-income group ($4,496-$13,935) and the Maldives will soon move into the high-income club. India fell from the 'lowest thirties' to the 'lowest forties' during the previous 10 years of the Manmohan Singh government and is stuck at the 'lowest forties' after 12 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government, wrote Subhash Chandra Garg. And yet, OffGrid Energy Labs invented its new battery technology in India but set up its factory in the UK. Why? In 2024, a social media platform LocalCircles reported that 66% of businesses resorted to paying bribes in the previous 12 months to get their work done. 54% were forced to pay bribes and 46% did so voluntarily. TOI. Maybe, that's why they left. Our youth lost.     

Bowing to foreigners.

"India's retail inflation accelerated to 4.38% in June as elevated food and fuel prices, geopolitical tensions in West Asia and concern over an uneven monsoon kept price pressures firm. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading breached the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium term inflation target of 4% after 17 months." "Retail food inflation stood at 5.32% in June compared with 4.78% in May." And "Transport inflation accelerated to 4.31% in May." ET. In March, "India's federal government...retained its retail inflation target at 4%, within a comfort band of 2%-6%, according to an official notification. The target will remain in place for five years." Reuters. "India's wholesale inflation quickened to 9.87% in June from 9.68% in May" driven by food, mineral oils, basic materials and chemicals and chemical products. ET. Near double digit increase in input costs will feed into the broader economy. Transport inflation is waiting. "Much commentary on the West Asia crisis has focused on what consumers pay at the pump," but "Fuel costs for fleet operators, raw material costs for small manufacturers, and gas prices for processing units have risen substantially. Some have been passed on. A meaningful part has not." "At household-level the impact is not yet visible." "When it does, second-order effects begin to show up. Household budgets will face pressure, discretionary consumption could soften." DH. In June, the RBI projected CPI inflation at 5.1% for the financial year 2026-27, from its earlier forecast of 4.6% (DH) but chose to hold its interest rate at 5.25%. Despite its mandate of targeting 4%, the RBI's recent record indicates that it actually set itself a target of 6% for its monetary policy. Starting October 2019, the inflation rate was well above 4% till February 2025, falling to a low of 0.4% in October, before starting to accelerate from February 2026. rateinflation.com. The RBI brazenly held its interest rate at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022 (shriram- finance.in) even as inflation was raging at above 7% and was forced to act in panic after the US Federal Reserve started hiking its Funds Rate aggressively from May 2022 (Forbes). "India's exports rose 15.5% year-on-year to $40.41 billion in June, while the trade deficit widened to a five-month high of $30.43 billion," because '"crude oil imports jumped 40% to $19.32 billion during the month, the country's overall merchandise imports in June went up by about 31% to $70.84 billion." DH. "India's exports to the US dipped 1.21% to USD 8.17 billion in June, while imports grew 33.86% year-on-year to USD 5.5 billion, according to government data." ET. Our exports to the US fell even as "US consumer spending accelerate in May even as prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, suggesting Americans are powering through the fallout from the Iran war." ET. High inflation should push bond yields higher but "India's long bond yields have stayed remarkably placid through it all. Part of the explanation is deliberate engineering." The RBI has allowed banks to offer higher interest rates on non-resident foreign currency (FCNR) accounts while the government has scrapped withholding and capital gains tax on foreign holders of government bonds, hoping to draw over $50 billion from overseas and ease the pressure on the rupee. This will help the RBI not to increase interest rates. Meanwhile, household debt has risen to 45.5% of GDP, of which 58.4% is comprised of credit cards, personal loans and gold loans. "The biggest beneficiary of this low-rate regime is not the stressed household. It is the biggest borrower in the room, the government." "Signs of rising defaults in the small loans segment aren't surprising," wrote Ajit Ranade. Is the RBI the Reserve Bank of India the central bank for Indians, the cooperative bank for the government or the private bank for the BJP? Indians would like to know why we are borrowing to survive? Enemy within? 

Intelligence is the key.

On 11 July, "The US military said it hit 140 Iranian military targets in its third round of strikes this week, following an attack on a merchant ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it fired a warning shot at a ship and declared the waterway closed." CNN. In response, "US President Donald Trump yesterday declared a resumption of the American blockade on Iranian ports, vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, and saying Washington would be 'reimbursed' for doing so to the tune of 20% on all cargo traversing the passageway. Meanwhile, Iran shot at two ships attempting to cross the strait, and American airstrikes reportedly killed two people in southwestern Iran." The Times of Israel. In 2025, "The Israeli military said it has accumulated in recent months intelligence showing that 'concrete progress' had been made 'in the Iranian regime's efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb', including a uranium metal core and a neutron source initiator for triggering the nuclear explosion." One Kelsey Davenport said that "some of Iran's activities would be applicable to developing a bomb, but US intelligence agencies had assessed that Iran was not engaged in key weaponisation work." BBC. It is a fact that Israel's intelligence from within Iran is far superior to what the US can achieve. On 31 July 2024, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an IRGC guesthouse after attending the inauguration ceremony of the present President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian. "Wasim 'Abu Anas' Abu Shabaan, Hnaiyeh's personal aide and bodyguard was also killed." According to one report, the assassination was carried out by Mossad agents on the ground. wikipedia. On 13 June 2025, Israeli jets "descended on Tehran in an operation they called 'Red Wedding'." "Hours later and 1,000 miles away (from Israel) Iran's top military commanders were dead." "The combination of intelligence information and military precision that enabled the attack surprised people around the world." "Another key part of the initial attack - considered so fantastic by even its planners that it was called 'Operation Narnia' after the fictional CS Lewis series -successfully killed nine top Iranian nuclear scientists almost simultaneously in their homes in Tehran." WSJ. "For years, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was little more than a name in classified reports." He was believed to be the mastermind behind Iran's plans to acquire a nuclear weapon, called 'Project Amad'. "On 27 November 2018, Fakhrizadeh was traveling with his wife and bodyguards toward their villa in the town of Absard, east of Tehran." "Waiting by the roadside was a pickup truck, seemingly abandoned. Hidden within it, was a 7.62 mm FN MAG machine gun, rigged with facial recognition AI, satellite links and explosives. No agents were on the ground." Fakhrizadeh was shot dead, his wife beside him was unhurt. "Seconds later, the truck exploded." The truck had been smuggled in pieces and assembled inside Iran. NDTV. On 31 January 2018, Mossad agents broke into a secret warehouse in the Kahrizak District of southern Tehran and "pilfered 100,000 documents, including paper records and computer files documenting the nuclear weapons work of Iran's AMAD Project between 1999 and 2015." wikipedia. It is amazing that all the Israelis were able to escape from Iran with half-a-ton of material without being caught. Obviously, the regime is so hated that Israel has been able to establish a network of informers and helpers throughout Iran. Instead of indiscriminate bombing, which is only increasing public support for the Iranian regime, the US should target the Ayatollahs, IRGC commanders and Basij commanders and their homes. Don't kill them. Don't let them sleep. Their families will force them to surrender. The Israelis know how. Strike a deal after winning the war. Let Israel lead. Support it. 

US down at 24th.

"Markets can recover from a bad quarter. Political upheaval, runaway inflation or weak institutions are much harder to hedge against." "A new global ranking shows that when safety is the priority, Europe dominates the list - while the United States falls well behind." "Singapore is the only non-European country to make the top 10." The US ranks 24th. BT. This 24th country has gone back to Pacific Command eight years after renaming it Indo-Pacific Command. "The announcement came hours before Mr Modi's engagement with Trump (on the margins of G7), a meeting many described as noticeably less warm than the embraces that once characterised the leaders' relationship. Gone are the stadium rallies and bear hugs." TOI. Back home, veteran Congress leader Pawan Khera told reporters "Let our government come to power. When we recount these 12-15 years, BJP leaders won't be able to step out without security." "People can see the media is being silenced, the organisations are being hijacked, how the Election Commission is in their (BJP's) pocket, how they have trampled the ED and CBI under their feet, how signatures are being forged and how democracy is being mocked." "It is already being documented." DH. A fascist government is unsafe and so are its projects. At Mira-Bhayandar in Mumbai a new four lane double-decker flyover, built at a cost of Rs 1 billion, suddenly narrows to two lanes, without any warning or signage. "In Bhopal, the Rs 180 million Ashbagh Railway overbridge went viral for its dangerously sharp 'near 90-degree turn'. In Lucknow, a railway overbridge appeared to run straight into a house. In Nagpur, images of the Indora-Dighori flyover almost slicing through a balcony at Ashok Chowk sparked outrage. The projects quickly became national memes." HT. "Ever since 2014, when the blissful era of Amrit Kaal began, it is said that the nation has been spared the shame and disgrace of corruption in high places." Now, "We simply do not notice corruption, we do not recognize corruption, we do not report corruption. No reports, no corruption. No intrepid editors, no crusading anchors." Millions have been stolen from the Ayodhya Ram Temple (BBC), the Enforcement Direectorate (ED) has settled 150 cases under the dreaded Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) for modest fines with permission from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) used AI-generated non-existent material, a Muslim High Court judge received death threats for finding 14 cow-vigilante men guilty of lynching a Muslim man (BBC) and the Bombay HC asked if all citizens are being made slaves of Indian govt., wrote Harish Khera. There is deep suspicion among Indians about the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), which was only deepened by the Supreme Court's refusal to allow an independent audit of the machines (BS). "The 124 FAQs published by the Election Commission of India (ECI) apparently dispel all doubts about the efficacy of machine-based voting. But deeper probing throws up more questions," wrote Venkatesh Nayak. Finally, if anyone is branded a criminal the police often eliminate him in a staged shooting incident, euphemistically known as 'encounters'. In seven years to September 2024, the UP police gunned down 207 criminals, many of whom carried cash rewards. TOI. We don't know India's position on the list of safe countries for investors. Could be embarrassing.