Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Will Rs 20 trillion get rid of the terror?

The Prime Minister has spoken. "The mega Rs 20 lakh crore (Rs 20 trillion) stimulus package announced on Tuesday by Prime Minister Narendra Modi includes previously announced measures to save the lockdown battered economy, and focuses on tax breaks for small businesses as well as incentives for domestic manufacturing." "A stimulus of Rs 20 lakh crore is awe-inspiringly large," wrote a skeptical TK Arun. "What was missing was any tangible announcement of concrete relief for the suffering mass of humanity fleeing lost jobs, penury and callous abandonment at their place of work, for the meagre but assured refuge of a distant home." India should ignore threats of credit rating downgrades because these agencies are biased, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Total debt of the Center and states in India was 72% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019-20, whereas Italy will have a fiscal deficit of 10.5% and its public debt will "jump to over 155% of GDP" this year. Yet, it's rating of BBB/A-2, which is higher than that of India's, was confirmed. "The rating agencies are private entities incorporated in the US and march to different idiosyncratic tunes, free of regulatory oversight." On 31 December 2019, "Total market capitalisation of the Indian equity market stood around Rs 154 lakh crore, or $2.2 trillion, as of Monday's close. Foreign portfolio investors held around Rs 30 lakh crore, or 20 percent of that market cap.." "Foreigners hold just 3.7 percent of almost Rs 60 trillion ($835 billion) of sovereign bonds issued by India, and the government has set a 6 percent limit on foreign ownership." A substantial portion of foreign investments will be US firms and hence rating agencies have a duty to warn them of risks. Unlike ratings agencies in India, which were fined by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), for rating IL&FS at the highest level of AAA before it defaulted on its debt in 2018 and caused an enormous financial crisis. "Overseas investors have begun to factor in a likely sovereign rating downgrade", because "Many of estimated 9,500 portfolio investors have the mandate to put cash only into investment grade countries." FPIs can see the inhuman suffering of migrant laborers as they walk along highways with children and their meager belongings. "Exhausted people sleep on the roadside. Children cry in hunger. Mother's cast anguished glances at vehicles that won't stop." With no protection against swarms of mosquitoes that have emerged due to recent rains. Over 8,000 auto-rickshaws loaded their belongings and fled Mumbai for their distant villages in UP and Bihar. "Center for Monitoring India Economy (CMIE) on Tuesday said 27 million youth in the age group of 20-30 years lost their jobs in April 2020 following nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. Terror of the virus, terror of hunger and terror of the future. Will Rs 20 trillion heal that terror? 

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