Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Birds of a feather.

The Hindustan Times reported yesterday that a high profile minister in the previous Congress led government had spent an awful lot of money on redecorating his bungalow on Teen Murti Marg, which is the central part of Delhi and where the politicians beg and fight to be allowed to stay. It is not clear whether he spent his own or taxpayer money but, having lost the election in May and being forced to move out, he has trashed the house to spite the next occupant. " All fittings have been removed, glass panels smashed and the badminton court dug up." These are the same people who come with folded hands and unctuous smiles to ask for votes before elections. Chinese leaders do not have to be polite to the people. Although there are daily protests these are brutally suppressed and never reported. Even when parents protested about the death of children in the Sichuan earthquake, when party offices went unscathed, and about melamine in baby milk they were beaten up. However, students are protesting in Hong Kong over freedom to elect who they want instead of only those who have been chosen by Beijing. They call it the ' Umbrella Revolution ', having used umbrellas to protect themselves from pepper sprays used by the police. That is completely unacceptable to the apparatchiks governing the country. If Hong Kong gets democracy today what if Shanghai demands it tomorrow? News of the protests have been completely suppressed inside China but will they be able to shutdown the internet completely despite the Great Firewall. Hong Kong is no Tiananmen Square that they will drive tanks over human bodies. The students are demanding that CY Leung, Chief Executive of Hong Kong, appointed by Beijing, must step down. China needs Hong Kong to showcase its tolerant government under the ' One Country, Two Systems ' rule. Leung did try to disperse the students by using the police batons and tear gas but that has only angered the students more. Leung and his supporters believe in the benevolence of the Communist Party and subservience to the mainland. They say that the student protests in the center of the city is harming small businesses and that the right to protest must not interfere with people's right to earn a livelihood. They say that the students are breaking the law by not taking police permission for the protests and should move to Victoria Park so as not to interfere with daily life. Of course, these are people appointed by Beijing and want to cling on to power like politicians everywhere. When Constable Tomar died of a heart attack, in the protests over the rape of a young woman in a Delhi bus, in 2012 the Congress immediately blamed the students. Hindi Chini bhai bhai.

Monday, September 29, 2014

The mystery of her mystique.

Couple of days ago a court in Bangalore found Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, Ms Jayalalitha guilty of corruption and sentenced her to 4 years in prison and fined her Rs 1 billion. It is called the Disproportionate Assets Case because when she became Chief Minister in 1991 she apparently possessed only Rs 25 million worth of assets which had grown to Rs 666.50 million, comprising of 2000 acres of land, 30 kg of gold, 12,000 saris and 800 pairs of shoes, by 1996 when she lost the elections. In her party, the AIADMK she is regarded as some sort of a deity, it is not clear why. Men fall down flat on their faces on the ground in homage, known in Hinduism as ' saashtaang '. After her conviction 16 people are said to have died, 10 from cardiac arrest and the rest from suicide. Why? It is not as if they were close to her. She is single and, apart from a so called foster son, on whose marriage she is said to have spent Rs 60 million in 1995, inviting the charge of disproportionate assets in the first place, she appears to have no close relatives. She is reputed to be extremely arrogant and aloof, allowing no one to sit next to her, even on flights. She cannot be that adorable that they cannot contemplate a future without her. After all, she lost elections in 1996 and 2006 and no one died then. So, what do all these people stand to lose. She has started Amma canteens which serve Amma idlis for Re 1, curd and rice for Rs 3 and sambar and rice for Rs 5. There is Amma water at Rs 10 per bottle, Amma pharmacies selling subsidised medicines and Amma cement at Rs 190 per bag. The state government has already projected an increase in total debt from Rs 1.31 trillion to Rs 1.55 trillion, with a total budget allocation of Rs 1.42 trillion. What all these handouts will do to the finances of the state maybe imagined. What is worse is that to win against her party others will have to promise even more handouts in a race to bankruptcy, which will eventually result in a severe public backlash. The Congress found this out the hard way after being reduced to 45 seats in parliament in 2014 from 214 seats in 2009. The NREGA scheme, farmers' loan waiver and the Sixth Pay Commission in 2008 paid handsome dividends but the Right to Education and the Food Security Bill did not because by then the previous sins had resulted in runaway inflation and huge fiscal and Current Account Deficits, bringing the threat of credit rating downgrade to junk status. Jayalalitha is not alone. About 50% of MLAs in Maharashtra face criminal charges while 90% of ministers of the new state of Telengana are criminals. What an auspicious start! The question therefore is why did so many suffer cardiac arrests for Jayalalitha. Mystery.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Mr Modi is a star in the US. How sad is that?

Prime Minister, Modi received rapturous applause from around 18,000 Americans of Indian origin at Madison Square Garden last night. But why? He talked of little things, such as opening bank accounts for every family, about cleaning the Ganga River, making India clean and building toilets. Stuff that people in other countries take for granted. He even joked about having little aspirations because he used to be a humble tea seller. His desire is that every family in India should have its own residence by 2022. That is his only big dream. The crowd loved it, chanting " Modi, Modi " and " Bharat Mata ki Jai ". Why? For decades Indians have been ignored, at best, or humiliated, at worst, by people of western countries, especially the Americans. That is why Non Resident Indians were some of the most virulent critics of India. An extremely repugnant official of the US Embassy in Delhi engineered the sexual assault of Devyani Khobragade with nothing to gain except humiliating an Indian diplomat. New York City Police baboons have paid $225,000 to Krittika Biswas for brutally assaulting her when she was just a child. They would never dare do that to any Chinese. Now at last maybe, just maybe, NRIs will find something to boast about. Sadly, India's history is one of foreign invaders conquering our land with the help of local scumbags. Someone has deliberately engineered a communal clash in Gujarat, the home state of Modi to give ammunition to western propaganda channels. All newspapers and TV channels slavishly echo western lies about Modi being responsible for the death of a handful of ' minorities ' in Gujarat in 2002 but fail to highlight tens of thousands of the same minority being slaughtered by indiscriminate bombing by the US, UK and France. It is as if we have accepted their right to blow up any number of civilians at will and then dismiss them contemptuously as ' collateral damage '. To fellows sitting in their comfortable armchairs in an air conditioned office in Nevada, controlling drones in Afghanistan, it is the same as playing a video game. If they blow up a wedding party, killing 40 people just giggle, say oops and carry on playing. Our news channels should be interviewing the victims, highlighting the genocide going on, to expose the shameless hypocrisy. But they don't. Why? Because they love to travel to the US and their children maybe studying there so just shrug and kowtow. A study has alleged that Indian pharma companies knowingly supply substandard medicines to African countries. There is an American name, what seems a Pakistani, a Chinese and an Indian name among the authors. While a vast majority of Indians are yearning to be proud of the nation a sizable number is actively working to destroy it. How sad is that?

Saturday, September 27, 2014

A fast buck or slow development? Difficult choice.

The Prime Minister, who has a talent for slogans, has told Indian businessmen that FDI, which usually stands for Foreign Direct Investment, should also mean " First Develop India ", which probably means investing in the country, developing new products by research and increasing employment so that wealth increases. But surely, if you live in India and have started a business in the country you should be looking to expand your interests inside the country. But Indian businesses seem more interested in investing abroad than here. Partly because the climate in India is hostile to business, a suspicion born of 6 decades of socialism and glorifying poverty. Partly because at 34% tax rates in India are too high but mainly because Indian business fellows have become used to the ' License Raj ' of the Congress where knowing a politician or a high level civil servant is more important than innovation or research. Indeed, while the poor beg for food to survive the rich in India are always whining for protection from foreign competition, low interest rates or land and resources for free. There is no attempt at improving customer service, ensuring high quality or addressing grievances. Not one company has an email address or a complaint site where you can address company officials directly. Every company has a call center of poorly educated staff, who are trained to recite the same words like parrots, and of little intelligence. The whole effort is geared towards short term profits by milking customers and not on building a lasting business. The recent cancellation of allocation of 214 coal mines and the previous cancellation of 122 telecom licences by the Supreme Court has shown how even the largest companies are involved in crooked deals. When caught with their hands in the cookie jar they will deny any wrongdoing, then blame the police for wrongly blaming them and then cry about the money invested. Sadly for them people are tired of being looted. Friendship with politicians allows business fellows to borrow money from public sector banks, many times their market capitalisation, with no intention of repaying. If the bank should demand its money back file an appeal, which will go on forever. Most of the looted money is channeled into real estate which is why property prices are soaring. With so much black money being generated an enormous amount of ingenuity and effort are invested in recycling that money in and out of the system. If you have an idea for a productive business you may have to face shark attacks even before you start. Businesses everywhere are corrupt. That is why Goldman Sachs is known as the vampire squid. Indian ones are just low class crooks. Corporates or chorporates?

Friday, September 26, 2014

Foreigners will invest only if taxes are lower.

A sigh of relief. S&P has revised India's outlook to stable from negative, although the credit rating still remains at BBB-, one notch above junk status. But after the ravages wrought by the Congress every forward step seems to be followed by one backwards. Retail inflation in August came in at 7.8%, down just a smidgen from 7.96% in July. Food inflation 9.42% in August from 9.36% in July. Farmers have become addicted to the previous government's policy of generating higher prices in food to give them higher profits, to get their votes. Any attempt at controlling inflation, either by increasing import of cheaper food from abroad or by curbing hoarding by speculators causes anger. While world food prices have fallen to a 4 year low, led by grain prices, prices in India continue to rise because of the built-in bribe to farmers. High food prices hurt the poor the most because they spend a higher portion of their income on food and need a much higher calorie intake to sustain physical labor. After rising by 3.94% in June the Index of Industrial Production increased by just 0.5% in July. The Prime Minister has placed great emphasis on manufacturing, which will stimulate growth by increasing employment, by inviting foreign companies to " make in India " but companies will only come here if taxes and inflation are lower. As per the Global Competitiveness Index India comes in at number 133 on inflation, 130 on tax and 131 on ease of starting a business. The figures are related. High taxes feed into inflation by raising prices and this results in the fall in the value of the rupee which, in turn, makes inflation worse by increasing the price of imports, especially oil. The mindset of politicians and civil servants is set in the concrete of socialism which loves high taxes to distribute handouts to the poor. High luxury tax on hotels in Delhi has cut occupancy and actually reduced tax collection. While Korea, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and China, countries almost destroyed by war, have become rich India continues to pride itself as a developing country. Most people are disappointed that Mr Modi did not announce massive reforms as soon as he was sworn in. Some have written extremely offensive articles on his supposed lack of courage but there was little he could do. He cannot lower taxes without stopping all the handouts started by the Congress. If he does that the poor, who have become dependent on free money from NREGA and cheap food, will starve. Also, he needs to win the coming elections in states to get a majority in the Rajya Sabha to be able to pass reform legislation. Cutting corruption will save at least Rs 1 trillion and improving work ethic will speed up government work. Real reforms will come after that. It will take time.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Thank God the US refused a visa for Mr Modi.

As our Prime Minister begins his visit to the US we Indians are thankful for the boorish behavior of the US government that denied him a visa because of the riots in Gujarat in 2002. This is the country that claims the right to kill innocent children in cowardly drone attacks, regularly. Unlike Manmohan Singh, who visited the US 11 times, Modi should be under no illusions. There will be enormous pressure on him to sign the Trade Facilitation Treaty at the WTO without any guarantees on agricultural subsidies. The US has mounted a ferocious attack on our pharmaceutical industry, regularly accusing it of lower standards. Then there are the Non Resident Indians, brown skinned Uncle Toms and Aunty Tammies, who think they are far superior to native Indians. Modi's agenda seems simple. India is open for business and what is in it for us. Western countries, including the US, have no idea on how to tail off central bank stimulus which is supporting their economies. Zero interest rates and bond buying by central banks of the US, UK and Japan have injected massive amounts of liquidity in global markets which has led to asset price bubbles everywhere, prompting the Bank for International Settlement to issue a warning about " irrational exuberance ". Stock markets and real estate prices are soaring. Property prices in Britain have reached ridiculous levels. To cut our import of gold in an effort to reduce the runaway Current Account Deficit the Congress increased taxes on gold and severely restricted imports. Gold import has fallen from 1,150 tonnes in 2011 to an expected 800 tonnes this year. And yet the Royal Mint is Britain is making it easier for British savers to buy gold. Why? Why is it bad for Indians to buy gold but good for the Brits? The US is stopping its bond buying program, called Quantitative Easing, and there is a strong lobby for increasing lending rate, which has been at zero since 2008, driven by domestic politics of rich versus the poor. On the other hand some believe that a higher lending rate in the US could make the dollar stronger, making other currencies weak, so that no one can challenge its reserve currency status. A strong dollar will drive oil prices down, further hurting the Russian economy, which is already suffering from sanctions. But is the US cutting its nose to spite its face as it pushes Russia and China closer, making China more powerful. Their cooperation could lay the grounds for world trade in currencies other than the dollar. The Reserve Bank Governor is worried about the possibility of a crash in the global economy. Finally, Modi should remember the brutal treatment of Krittika Biswas by New York City Police baboons. Since he has no personal interest in the US Mr Modi maybe able to gain from their fears. We pray for him.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Manufacturing impossible without cheap energy.

The Supreme Court has cancelled allocation of 214 coal blocks since 1993, sparing only 4 of them. In 2012 the Supreme Court cancelled 122 telecom licenses which prompted foreign companies to reassess their commitment to India. Judges have a duty to enforce the law and if licenses have been awarded illegally, either as a favor to friends or in return for bribes, then they have to say so. This verdict comes in response to a Public Interest Litigation which sought investigation of all licenses under the supervision of the Supreme Court, cancellation of illegal licenses and fines on companies which had obtained them. Accordingly the Court has added a fine of Rs 295 per tonne on the companies which will give the government a windfall of Rs 100 billion. Who distributed the coal mines illegally and who gained from the illegal distribution of public resources? Politicians and civil servants. Who suffers from the judgement? Power and steel companies which will have no fuel to run their plants, banks which will suddenly be saddled with enormous bad loans but mainly the people who will find their electricity bills jump and goods made of iron, such as cooking utensils, becoming expensive. Public sector banks will be recapitalised using taxpayer money so we lose in every way. On the other hand the extra money will come in handy for the civil servants and politicians to go abroad for highly enjoyable junkets. India must be the only country in the entire world where public and civil servants, who have taken an oath to uphold the constitution but loot the public, are freely allowed to enjoy their booty but we, who are forced to pay bribes to survive, are punished heavily. The Prime Minister is very keen to boost manufacturing in India and has invited foreign companies to " make in India ". This might be an excellent time for India as China tries to shift from a low wage, highly polluting, export driven economy to one driven more by consumption and services. Traditionally countries exported their way out of poverty using cheap labor in manufacturing. Japan, Taiwan, Korea and China have all used this model very effectively. Manufacturing is labor intensive and so increases employment, draws people out of low paying agricultural labor into higher paid jobs and attracts foreign investment which brings technical know-how. India is upside down in that our services sector is 57% of the economy but employs only 28% of the workforce. A lot of the services, such as maids, waiters and construction labor, are very low paid, insecure and hazardous. However, manufacturing is not possible without cheap and abundant energy which is proved by the US and China being the greatest greenhouse gas emitters. Auction profit sharing and not the coal mines. Coal mines belong to the people so we should benefit.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Another head for the hydra.

Much to the delight of the Syrian government, which says that it was informed in advance, the US struck Islamic State targets in the north of Syria. The problem is that while the Iraqi government formally asked for US help the Syrians have warned that any bombing of Syrian territory will be a violation of its sovereignty. To provide itself with the figurative fig leaf the US has gathered together a coalition of the usual suspects, including the Gulf Arab states. Arabs bombing Arabs, which absolves the US. The Gulf Arab states were supplying money and arms to the Sunni Syrian rebels to get rid of the Alawite Bashar government, which they see as heretics. So why have they ganged up with the US in bombing the IS? Maybe because a Caliphate is dangerous to their control of the 2 holy mosques in Makkah and Medina. Or maybe because they will do anything to stop the US from asking Iran for help. The Gulf Arabs detest, and are terrified of, Shia Iran which, with the help of the Shias in Iraq, the Alawis in Syria and the Hezbollah in Lebanon can easily beat the hell out of them. The organisation of the IS shows how the Jihadi terrorist groups have been evolving: from the Mujahideen to the Taliban to Al Qaeda to the Islamic State. First with US help, then with help from Pakistan and now independently. The IS is the most violent and vicious so far. It learnt how the US kidnapped suspects, many of whom were innocents or children, transferred them in secret to Guantanmo and tortured them into confessions, based on which they are being held indefinitely. So they do the same to any western person they can get hold of. The US and Europe will be desperate to keep the fighting bottled up in Iraq and Syria. What they are really terrified of are the 15,000 foreign fighters who have joined the IS. Many of them are their own citizens who could return home to carry out terrorist attacks. The FBI apparently has 100 Americans under surveillance. While the gasbag Obama promises to " degrade and destroy ISIS " another little terrorist cell has just been hatched in Syria. This one goes by the moniker of ' Khorasan ', led by an acolyte of the great guru, Osama bin Laden, a 33 year old from Kuwait called Muhsin al-Fadhli. This group apparently specialises in toothpaste bombs. The miracles of science! What these groups do not realise is that they have a massive friend in the US of A, the National Rifle Association which wants guns for every child in the US, pink ones for little girls. There are 300 million guns floating around in the US, enough to arm an army. How will the US government deal with a dozen suicide terrorists armed with a selection of guns? 

Indian scientists make us proud, despite politicians.

Tomorrow is a crucial day that could bring great joy to Indian scientists and science. At 7.30 AM the spacecraft called Mangalyaan, on a Mars Orbiter Mission, will reach the final moments of its journey that started last October. Yesterday the engine was test fired for 3.968 seconds in preparation for tomorrow when it will be fired for 24 minutes to slow the spacecraft down so that it can be captured by the gravity of Mars at a distance of of 423 km, after travelling over 700 million km. The science behind the mission is mind boggling in its complexity, the most satisfying thing being that it is designed, constructed and planned entirely in India. It is ironic that Mangalyaan is arriving 3 days after the NASA spacecraft called MAVEN reached Mars because the US has done everything possible to hinder our space exploration, the excuse being that the same technology maybe used for making missiles, while it has supplied arms to Pakistan with which to kill Indians. Perhaps something for our Prime Minister to remember when he is being overwhelmed by the usual diplomatic hot air while on his visit to the US in a few days time. Despite a poor education system India has produced many brilliant scientists but the tragedy is that they are completely ignored by the government, which functions to enrich politicians and civil servants, and the press, which concentrates on the same politicians and civil servants and trivial Bollywood gossip. About 50% of our children are not fit for the grade they are in. In a country where 50% of the population is under the age of 25 years, with a million joining the workforce every year, it is a tragedy that 80% are not fit for employment. The dismal state of affairs is captured by the events of Jadavpur University in Kolkata where a female student was drugged and molested in a male hostel on the evening of 28 August. Apparently the university tried to hush up the incident which led to students protesting outside the Vice Chancellors office. The police were called and did the only thing that police in India know, which is thrash the students. Trinamul Congress thugs joined in to molest more women. West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee thought that the Park Street rape in 2012 was a conspiracy against her government and transferred the Joint Commissioner of Police, Damayanti Sen for solving the case. Her nephew, Abhijit Banerjee said that the agitation at Jadavpur is because of a ban on drugs on the university campus. Mamata Banerjee started her career in the Congress and just as the Congress brutally attacked sleeping followers of Baba Ramdev in 2011, resulting in the death of one woman, so Trinamul is organising its own rally against ' anarchists ' and ' outsiders '. Perhaps we would be better off on Mars.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

The pot of gold is here, not in tax havens.

" We are strongly committed to a global response to cross-border tax avoidance and evasion so that the tax system supports growth enhancing fiscal strategies and economic resilience," reads a communique after the G20 meeting at Cairns in Australia. We say," Hear, hear," to that. But how? The corporate tax rate in India is 34%, more than double that in Mauritius where it is a pleasing 15%. India has a Double Tax Avoidance Treaty with 88 countries. Why would a company pay a humongous 34% tax plus a forced 2% Corporate Social Responsibility expenditure in India when they pay 12% in Cyprus, 12.5% in Ireland and no tax in the Channel Islands of Jersey and Guernsey? Chairmen of multinationals maybe anything but they definitely are no fools. But India is not alone. Apple pays almost no taxes in the US by ascribing all its profits to a postbox company in Ireland, which has no employees, and then pays no tax in Ireland because this company is controlled from the US. The beauty is that Apple has not broken any laws. The big 4 accounting firms rake in billions of dollars in earnings every year by advising companies and wealthy people on how to avoid taxes, without breaking any law. The US is losing tax revenues as large companies relocate their headquarters to other countries with lower rates of taxes. The practice of merging with an overseas subsidiary in order to shift tax base to a country with lower tax rates is called ' inversion ' in the US and so enraged Obama that he called it " unpatriotic ". Politicians may keep frothing but there is nothing they can do about it. Taxation is a sovereign right of any government and if a country has kept its tax rates low, in the hope of attracting businesses which will create employment, which will increase demand and thus stimulate growth, then good luck to it. Indian politicians and civil servants are a mixture of totally shameless beggars with openly criminal aggression in their demands for unjustified entitlements. To soothe the public to their complete lack of sharam and izzat they resort to naked bribes in the form of handouts under various social schemes. Giving free electricity to farmers has crippled the electricity industry and has added to the cost of living by increasing charges for those who pay. This has been aggravated by mining scams where mines were given to friends and family so that coal has to be imported when India has 250 billion tonnes of reserves. To fill the huge hole in its budget the government resorts to extortionate taxes which undermine competitiveness as investments fall. Our politicians have excited the people on how they will get billions of dollars of illicit money stashed abroad when most of the loot is invested in the real estate sector inside India. India's problems cannot be solved by the G20. The crooks are here. Get them first.

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Fraudulent disease, banking, insurance with funny justice.

The Hon'ble Supreme Court has ordered that ' undertrials ' who have served more than half of the maximum jail sentence for the crimes they are accused of must be released within 2 months. This peculiar beast, probably found only in India, are people who have not been found guilty of any crime but are locked up, presumably because they cannot afford bail. Out of a total of 381,000 prisoners 254,000 are undertrials. About 100,000 will benefit from the amnesty. However, we are not told of the status of the people who will be released. Since they have not been tried they are still presumed to be innocent. Some are indeed innocent of the crimes they are accused of while others are guilty, some of whom maybe habitual criminals. So will they be released as innocent or as guilty? If they are innocent will they be paid compensation for the time spent in prison? This is the same country where the rich and the connected can apply for ' Anticipatory bail ' to prevent arrest for heinous crimes. This is also the country where Amarmani Tripathi and his wife, convicted of the murder of Madhumita Shukla in 2003, have been sitting in BRD Medical College hospital in Gorakhpur on complaints of fictitious ailments. Amarmani since 2012 and his wife since 2008. Surely the time enjoyed in hospital based on lies should be added to their sentences. That will not happen because our justice system is a joke. On the other hand Shivraj Puri, out on bail on a charge of defrauding Citibank of Rs 4 billion, has cheated a Mumbai businessman and his wife out of Rs 131 million by scaring them of being accused of selling a residential plot in Gurgaon to multiple buyers. Turns out that there was no such case. Puri joined Citibank in 2002 and cheated 30 investors by showing them a forged circular promising 2% interest per month. The great thing about him is that his whole family, including his wife, father, mother, grandfather and grandmother are all accomplices. A broker arrested for taking loans from banks by bribing officials was able to raise Rs 1.5 billion from 2 banks while out on bail. Bank officials are bribed with expensive gifts to sanction loans to dubious entities who have no intention of repaying. This is called ' suitcase banking '. Ordinary people are getting routinely scalped by insurance scamsters. These ciriminals are happy to rotate in and out of jail because they can afford expensive lawyers and merciful judges allow cases to continue for decades. All the while they are out on bail, enjoying their loot.  While the entire justice system is decrepit there is a raging debate about how to appoint judges. It would be a joke but we cannot laugh.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Leaders without pants.

" There you go again," was the zinger used by Ronald Reagan to win against Jimmy Carter in the presidential elections of 1980. He could have used the remark against every US president, including himself. The urge to resolve every problem in the world by indiscriminate bombing is irresistible. Now Obama has authorised bombing of suspected Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria. A consummate gasbag, Obama has no military experience. He withdrew all troops from Iraq because the Iraqis would not give blanket immunity to US soldiers for any crimes that they might commit in the future. That would be a blatant violation of sovereignty and no government will allow that, especially since the US uses private mercenaries to murder civilians. Having described the IS as a " jayvee ( junior varsity ) team " during his reelection campaign of 2012 and having repeatedly promised " no boots on the ground " he was caught with his pants down when videos of beheading of US hostages emerged on the net. The only option is to drop huge bombs from high altitude which will invariably kill lots of innocent civilians. The IS can only be defeated by troops liberating captured areas and then consolidating defensive positions so that they cannot be recaptured. In his testimony to the Congress Gen Martin Dempsey, Chairman Joint chiefs of Staff said that US troops may have to fight in Iraq, which was quickly shot down by the White House. Britain and Australia, being Anglo-Saxon slave states of the US, have naturally joined in and yesterday Francois Hollande of France, who was caught riding pillion on his way to drop his pants, joined in the fun when French fighter jets attacked an alleged IS depot. Western news channels parrot the official line that it was an IS depot and dozens of fighters were killed. We have no way of knowing whether it really was an IS depot or how many civilians, including children, were slaughtered. With an abysmal popularity rating of just 13% Hollande desperately needs to divert the attention of the French people. So, how does it matter to us in India? ' Minorities ' have been fighting each other in the middle-east for millenia, so why should we bother? Seems that the US is waiting to ask our Prime Minister for India to become a non-NATO ally when Modi visits the US next month. We should agree only if the US stops supplying Pakistan with money and arms and agrees to defend us against any Chinese attack. The conditions should be written down, passed by both houses of the Congress and must be absolute, with no exceptions. It is time to cut Pakistan at its knees and build a strong coalition against China. At all times we must remember that Americans always speak with forked tongues.

A war just to sell chocolates.

Ukraine's President, Petro Poroshenko is in Washington asking for " military equipment, both lethal and no-lethal ". " Blankets and night-vision goggles are important," he said," but one cannot win a war with blankets." What war is he talking about? If he wants to fight Russia he cannot win, regardless of the amount of weapons he gets from the US. Unless NATO gets involved. If that happens we are talking about destruction of large parts of Europe and Russia, a collapse of the global financial system and, God forbid, the possibility of nuclear weapons. Thankfully, the US and Europe have their hands full with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and so will huff and puff but will not blow the house down. If, on the other hand, Poroshenko wants lethal weapons to fight the rebels in the east of the country, who are as much citizens of Ukraine as he is, he is no different from Bashar al-Assad. " Just like Israel, Ukraine has the right to defend her territory - and it will do so, with all courage of her heart and dedication of her soul," said Poroshenko. Stirring words, except that they are completely false. Israel does not kill its own citizens. In fact, it ferociously defends them against attacks by far more numerous Arabs and it has signed peace treaties with its one time enemies, Egypt and Jordan. The Ukrainian parliament has just ratified an EU association pact which is no different from the one rejected by former president Victor Yanukovych, because it does not address Ukraine's national debt of $73 billion whereas Russia offered a no-strings $15 billion loan and 33% reduction on natural gas. Without gas from Russia Ukraine will not be able to afford heating this winter. With fears of deflation biting at its heels Europe cannot afford any help. All it can offer is austerity, which has already pushed Spain, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus into deflation, with Italy and Slovakia joining them. Instead of killing his own people Poroshenko could have offered them a referendum to decide on whether they want to join the EU and NATO or take the Russian offer. Even if the east of the country voted for Russia they would accept a majority decision of the entire nation. So why is Poroshenko so keen on joining the EU? It is certainly not for the good of the country but what does he stand to gain personally? He is a billionaire businessman, known as the ' chocolate king ', who stands to gain from a large prosperous market that the EU offers. Apparently he wants to sell his chocolate business and being in the EU would definitely increase its valuation. US help to the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet Union created the Taliban. Now it is supporting extreme right wing neo-Nazis in Ukraine against Russia. It will rebound. But how? We shall see.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Should there be a red card for politicians?

In a couple of hours Scotland will start to vote on a referendum to decide on its independence from the British parliament at Westminster in London. About 4.3 million, which is a record 97% out of a total population of 5.3 million people, have registered to vote. As is usual politicians have deluded the people that an independent Scotland will be good for them, with jingoistic rhetoric about how medieval heroes William Wallace and Robert the Bruce fought against the brutal English. The truth is that Alex Salmond wants to be the Laird of all Scotland, jet around the world on taxpayer money and have his photo taken, standing shoulder to shoulder with other world leaders. The Scots say that the Sassenachs, which is Gaelic for Saxons, are robbing them of revenues from North Sea oil while the English claim that their taxes are subsidising the Scots. Tempers are running high with both sides accusing each other of lying but with so much at stake there has been no real violence, showing how close the 2 nations are with each other. While Alex Salmond is dreaming of the powers and privileges that come with being the head of government British Prime Minister, David Cameron is terrified about demands for independence by Wales and Northern Ireland, being reduced to second rate status in the EU and losing the UN Security Council seat. The real terror is if that happens England will lose its importance to the US and will be ignored by the rest of the world. If Scotland does become independent other separatist groups in Europe will also seek their own referendums. As part of the EU they will get the same benefits as independent entities as they are getting today as provinces of large countries and with NATO protection will have no worries, or indeed the need, for any defensive force. If a wealthy region breaks away it can keep all its taxes so tax rates will fall, pensions will be higher and the standard of living will rise. A mouthwatering prospect. So, will the Scots be living in leisure with money from North Sea oil, free to travel anywhere, as a new state within the EU, and protected by the US? It may not happen that way. Spain, which is afraid of Catalonia and the Basque region breaking away, may veto Scotland's entry into the EU. Not being part of the Schengen agreement would mean border controls between Scotland and England, oil prices may fall as shale oil production rises and the Bank of England may refuse to honor Scottish debt. Regardless of what happens one thing will not change. In sports Scotland has always fielded a Scottish team, whether in football, in rugby or in athletics. Perhaps countries should be ruled by sporting rules. 

A guest is divine. Even one who comes conquer?

' Atithi devo bhava '. The literal meaning of that Sanskrit phrase would be that a guest is God. For Hindus it means that we should open our home to a guest, give him food and water and a place to rest. It is this prehistoric philosophy which led to India being ruled by the Moguls for 400 years and the British for 200 years, millions being converted by force and Hindus clinging on for survival, assailed on every side. It is now the turn of the Chinese, as President Xi Jinping visits India. Even as there will be lots of photo ops, dinners and hot gas we should not forget that China is a nation of uncivilised barbarians which is  virtually at war with all of its neighbors. It claims the entire south China Sea as its territory and its ships deliberately rammed and sunk Vietnamese boats off the coast of Vietnam. China has warned our oil company ONGC against any oil exploration in Vietnamese waters. It is converting reefs well inside Philippines territory into islands and then claiming them as its land. It has a long running dispute with Japan regarding ownership of the Senkaku islands. Chinese fishermen stabbed a South Korean coastguard to death while another Chinese boat rammed the coastguard vessel in 2011. While its behavior is exceedingly nasty towards peaceful, friendly nations it is charming towards the most despicable brutal states, such as North Korea, the Kim prison camp, the Khmer Rouge, who murdered more than a million Cambodians, and, of course, our neighbor, Pakistan, the epicenter of all terrorism in the world today. It is true that the Communist Party has engineered the greatest economic growth in history which has propelled the country to the second wealthiest in the world. Its insatiable demand for commodities has driven up prices and improved the economies of many countries. Cheap goods manufactured by massive Chinese factories have kept prices low, allowing poor people the pleasure of owning consumer goods, such as mobile phones and televisions, for the first time. But at what cost? US trade deficit with China was over $318 billion last year and has already crossed $186 billion this year. China keeps its goods cheap by controlling the exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar by buying dollars and US government securities. This combination of low inflation and increased money supply has depressed interest rates in western countries and resulted in an explosion of public and private debt. Is there anyway of stopping this monster? Perhaps its destruction will come from its success. Already Chinese workers are being attacked in African countries where China has invested billions. Or maybe it will fall into its own ' black jails '. China's fall is fervently to be hoped for.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

The good old days have gone forever.

We, in India, have come to accept that we have no control over our lives. As countless scams have proved the rich have politicians and civil servants in their pockets who enact laws to suit the rich at the expense of the rest. Turns out that we are not alone. A study by Martin Gilen and Benjamin Page shows that some laws suit both rich and poor but where the interests of the rich clash with those of the poor the poor inevitably lose. How do politicians get elected if they are agents for the top 1%? In the US they use immigration reforms, abortion and fears of gun control while in India they use pseudo-secularism, caste division and blatant bribery by dishing out freebies on taxpayer money, such as free televisions, free electricity and free goats. But there is a price to be paid for this unprincipled chicanery. People are fed up of so called traditional politicians and are looking to punish them. The Congress has ruled India for 57 out of 67 years since independence but was so severely punished that it could not get even 10% of seats in the Lok Sabha to merit Leader of the Opposition status. Scotland votes in a referendum to break away from the UK in 2 days, Catalonia and the Basque region want to secede from Spain as does Quebec in Canada. People are voting against the EU. The Alternative Party got 10% of votes in Saxony in Germany, Marine Le Pen would trounce Hollande if an election were to be held today in France and the UK Independence Party could beat the Tories in 2015. The world is yet to recover from the Great Recession following the fall of Lehman Brothers 6 years ago. Governments rescued banks by taking on their loans but did not protect people from losing their homes to mortgage foreclosure. Interest rates have been kept near zero, penalising savers to protect borrowers, mostly the rich. Unemployment has reached an unbearable 20% in parts of Europe, which is battling fears of deflation. The rich have recovered their wealth because of  a phenomenal rise in property and share prices as cheap money has piled into assets. While economic growth has slowed in India property prices continue to surge, fed by a boom in black money. In olden days governments could control the spread of news. Now we can access news from across the world through the internet and social media. China controls its citizens by feeding them a fictitious history cooked up by the Party while our Dear Leaders snoop on us without any control. We are too divided to protest but pockets of resistance keep breaking out. The good old days have gone. We want to be equal.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Greater knowledge leads to tunnel vision.

Since it is impossible to know everything the higher up the education ladder you go the more specialised you get. Thus, a general practitioner will treat men, women and children for everything from migraine to piles but an orthopedic surgeon will only look at bones and miss an obvious heart murmur. This is most evident in government policies. Politicians assemble a bunch of experts to advise on a problem and each one gives a different solution depending on his/her specialist knowledge. Politicians then pick the bits that suit them and enact a law which benefits them and penalises us. An article by Dipankar Gupta, Director, Centre for Public Affairs and Critical Theory at Shiv Nadar University says that the reason for a severe lack of trained professionals in India is because there is a complete lack of respect for vocational training. " We have assumed all along that skill development is only for the academically challenged; better still they should also be dirt poor, with nowhere to go," he writes. According to National Sample Survey only 18% of those with vocational training have regular jobs and 60% of this 18% are working in informal sectors. 30% of the unemployed are graduates who refuse vocational training because it lacks social status. In Germany and South Korea vocational training is linked to industrial requirements and in England Reading University was developed for those who cannot afford Oxford or Cambridge. This is clearly an article written by an academic. Illiteracy is not unique to India. In the US, where education is compulsory, 32 million adults, that is 14% of the population cannot read, 21% read below 5th grade and 19% of high school graduates cannot read. If a child refuses to learn there is not much anyone can do. The vast majority of people have average intelligence, around 100 on IQ tests. Some amount of intelligence is inherited but a larger amount is acquired. A lot of learning, especially in languages, reading and general knowledge, is acquired at home so children of educated parents have the double advantage of being able to afford good schools as well as highly intellectual interaction at home. The Congress passed the Right to Education Act which forces private schools to reserve 25% of seats of poor students. To protect these children from failure they banned all exams, including Class X boards. The number of Class V students who can read Class II text dropped from 52.8% in 2009 to 47% in 2013. Surely it is better to give them vocational training to increase their earning capacity. Finally, with so many unemployed the only answer is to increase manufacturing. To do that labor laws need to be changed, unions need to be freed from political gangs and resources better utilised. The present Prime Minister is trying. We wish him all the best.

It is them vs us. We are the losers.

In western countries politicians are called public servants and government fellows are called civil servants, which means that they are supposed to serve the people. Thus last year vast majority of Americans were staunchly against any US involvement in Syria so Obama refrained from any direct action against Bashar al Assad's forces despite personal inclination to do so. After the recent beheading of 2 American journalists by Islamic State fighters public opinion has shifted radically, so Obama has authorised bombing of IS in Iraq and Syria. In India politicians call themselves ' Leaders ' and civil servants are called ' IAS, IPS, IFS etc officers ' who consider themselves as masters and the people as their servants. Thus there is a constant attempt to suck up to rich people, for unknown reasons, extort money from the middle class, by imposing punitive taxes, and distribute handouts to the poor with our money to keep them begging for more. Laws are passed to punish us without any thought as to reasons or consequences. The government is set to bring in a law to increase fines on drivers by 50 times. This is for our own good, they say. The penalty for the death of a child will be a fine of Rs 300,000 and a prison term of 7 years. A National Highway Traffic Safety Authority, as in the US of A, will be set up, so the law is probably consonant with the US. But who decides whether the driver was driving rashly or too fast? Whenever there is an accident involving a car the car driver is inevitably blamed and since there is no black box in the car there is no defense. More importantly, what are children doing on roads in India? In the US there are strict laws concerning parental supervision of children and no child would be allowed to use a road alone. But in India people breed on pavements and children, some who look as little as 3 years old, run around among cars at traffic lights, begging for money. If politicians are bleeding for the safety of children surely they should first pass a law forbidding any child from begging and making adult supervision mandatory at all times. They should also stop farmers bringing bullock carts on highways, causing dangerous obstruction. After all they do not pay any tax while we pay enormous taxes on every car we buy, a road tax, taxes on petrol and toll every 30 km for the privilege of crawling along behind a cart. But will they? Hell, no. Poor people and farmers are enormous vote banks so they are above the law. The dowry law was meant to protect women but is now being misused. Women are still dying. One very important reason is that parents of the woman do nothing to protect their daughter even though they know that she is being beaten up. Should they not be charged as complicit in her death? Bad laws are enacted to keep us suppressed. Our suffering continues to increase.

Friday, September 12, 2014

The lesser the people the stronger we will be.

Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite, which mean liberty, equality and brotherhood, was the motto of the French Revolution and was adopted by the First Republic in 1790. Perhaps the French Revolution was the proof that there cannot be true equality and brotherhood. Maximilien Robespierre, the man who led the Revolution and was responsible for the execution of over 17,000 people by the guillotine, including Louis XVI and his wife, Marie Antoinette, was himself guillotined in 1794 along with 21 of his followers. As top predators human beings are territorial, possessive, competitive and brutally oppressive. Perhaps, it is instinctive. All primates live in families and there is always an alpha male who leads the family and reacts violently to any insubordination. But surely democracy, where people choose who to represent them, ensures that everyone gets a fair share of resources and opportunities? Not if you see the fierce debate in the US about the ' makers ' who create wealth, in other words the rich, and the ' takers ' who do not pay federal income taxes. Right wing talking-heads say that it is unfair that the 53% who pay tax should bear the burden of the rest who do not. Liberals say that it is only because the system favors the rich while penalising the poor. The rich suffered the most in the Great Recession of 2008 but have recovered all their wealth while wages for workers have remained stagnant because of high unemployment and competition for jobs. The top 1% earned one-fifth of the country's income last year. From 2009-2012 earnings of the top 1% grew by 31.4% while that of the bottom 99% grew by a measly 0.4%. Thus the 1% captured 95% of growth in incomes. Also most of this wealth is from financial dealings which are non-productive and were responsible for the crash in the first place. In ' Das Kapital ' Karl Marx postulated that in a capitalist society a few people grow very rich on the labor of the masses who remain poor. Hence everything should be owned by the commune and private ownership would be banned. " From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." The collapse of the USSR proved conclusively that communism does not work. But does capitalism work? No according to Capital in the Twenty-First Century by Thomas Picketty who says that inequality is rising as only a few people control capital and scarce land. That is because of the basic law of supply and demand. The wealthy are multiplying their wealth based on the cheap labor from the explosive growth of poor people in developing countries. Globalisation has meant that capital can travel anywhere but not people. So as capital goes in search of cheap labor so rich countries are suffering. Reduce numbers to reduce inequality.

Borrow only what you can repay.

Around 30 years back banks in western countries would lend a maximum of 2.5 times your annual income to buy a home provided you did not have other outstanding loan repayments. Home loan mortgages are considered safe because no one likes to become homeless and you cannot run away with it. Then bank regulations were reduced and, following the 9/11 attacks, interest rates were reduced to 1% by Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan. Banks went on a lending spree, even lending to people with bad credit histories. These were called sub-prime mortgages and to protect themselves they resorted to Credit Default Swaps.  Financial Markets nearly went into meltdown when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and the US government had to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If private debt caused the great recession in the US in 2008 it was government debt which caused the east Asian crisis in 1997, and had to be rescued by the IMF under very strict conditions, following which most countries in Asia have built up strong foreign currency reserves. Argentina defaulted on its foreign loans in 2001 and has not been able to recover since. It was able reach a deal with its creditors which would allow it to write off its debt by paying 30 cents to the dollar so that it could start borrowing again. The vast majority of creditors agreed but some ' vulture funds ' bought the remaining loans cheaply and sued in a US court for full payment. US judges are know to be tyrannical so this one has not only ordered Argentina to pay the plaintiffs in full but stopped it from paying the other creditors, forcing it to default a second time. Venezuela's condition is even more dire. An oil economy it was ravaged by socialist handouts by Hugo Chavez. To borrow money it has to pay 11% more than US bond rates which is 12 times that of Mexico, 4 times that of Nigeria and double of Bolivia. Last May it raised $5 billion through private placement of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 6% but had to give 40% discount up front, which means it raised just $3 billion. So what about us. The Congress resorted to a policy of handouts to win elections which resulted in soaring fiscal deficit, current account deficit and double digit inflation. High inflation helps by reducing the real cost of debt. Government debt is around 67% of GDP which is not high and household debt is low but corporate debt is very high leading to concern. Bhushan Steel has a debt of Rs 351 billion with a net worth of Rs 26 billion, Videocon Industries - debt Rs 393 billion, net worth Rs 57 billion and Jai Prakash Power - debt Rs 269 billion, net worth Rs 41 billion. Banks must be held to account for defaults.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Why do they want us to gamble?

Gambling is illegal in India. There are no betting shops in India unlike in the west where punters can bet on anything from greyhound racing to the gender of the next royal baby. Betting is called satta in India and since it is not legal it is controlled by crime gangs, as the recent spot fixing scandal in cricket showed. Why then do politicians, business fellows and obliging journalists want to get Indians to invest in the stock market, either directly by buying shares in companies or through mutual funds? The Congress tried to entice middle class people with tax incentives but these were so miserly that few would have availed of the offers. They say that equities provide the best prospects for savings over the medium to long term, the returns are higher than the rate of inflation and they are highly liquid. They advise people not to buy gold to hedge against inflation because that is wholly imported, has a negative impact on our trade balance and the Current Account Deficit and is totally non productive. Invest in the stock market through Systematic Investment Plans, they say, and we will make you rich. But will they? The Indian stock market is a big gamble because it is manipulated by a few big speculators. The market is manipulated by criminals who are seldom caught and then allowed to continue with their activities. Investors lost Rs 56 billion in the recent collapse of the National Spot Exchange because of fraudulent trading based on fake warehouse receipts. People read of such scams but they do not see the guilty receiving stiff sentences as Mathew Martoma did in New York yesterday. Insider trading and front running are rampant without anyone ever being arrested. That is why retail investors own just 18% of shares of all listed companies, down from 31% in 2002. Retail investment in stocks is just $17 billion compared with $166 billion in gold and $284 billion in bank deposits. Price volatility in our stock markets is heavily influenced by speculation. The top 25 of the 1000 registered trading members in the National Stock Exchange bet $3 trillion on derivatives trading, $60 billion on futures and $2.3 billion on options. Speculation in India is second only to that in Korea, which has introduced curbs on speculative trading. Derivatives trades are dangerous as shown by the collapse of Barings Bank in 1995 and Bruno Iksil, known as the London Whale, lost $6.2 billion for JP Morga Chase in 2012. And yet they want retail investors to put their hard earned money in stocks. Maybe because they know that retail investors are easy to con, because they make irrational decisions and stay invested in losing shares allowing the speculators to sell out. In local lingo we are murgas or chickens, which are easily sacrificed. Despicable.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Obama is definitely Junior Varsity grade.

After destroying Iraq and its army and killing 100,000 civilians by indiscriminate bombing, based on lies about WMDs, the US is now bombing Iraq again to protect its people from the Islamic State. It has already carried out more than 500 attacks on IS targets. The IS has many Shia, Christian and Yezidi prisoners who will also be blown up by these fearsome 500 lb bombs, along with any local Sunnis going about their lives. The IS has come to Iraq from Syria where they control a large tract of land in Raqaa province in the north. Some in the US believe that if Obama had supplied arms to the moderate rebels in Syria that would have prevented the rise of IS. The reason why Obama refrained from doing so could be because it was not easy to distinguish who the moderate rebels were or maybe the US was supplying weapons through Saudi Arabia and just pretending to be cute. Obama thought that Al Qaeda was finished after the killing of Osama bin Laden and referred to IS as ' Junior Varsity ' team during the campaign for reelection in 2012. However, Obama's blunder was not in underestimating the Islamic State but in withdrawing all US troops from Iraq, which he is about to repeat in Afghanistan. And just as in Iraq Afghanistan is going to fall apart. The family of Steven Sotloff, the second US hostage beheaded on video, believe that he was sold to the IS by moderate rebels in Syria for $50,000. It is this complete lack of understanding and the belief that any problem can be solved by bombing that guides US foreign policy. World War II was the last war won by superior force, Korea ended in a draw, following which the US has suffered defeats in Vietnam, Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. To win against the IS you need soldiers on the ground but gasbag Obama is bound by his pledge not to risk any US soldier and this cowardly bombing from the sky cannot be carried on forever. So, Obama is going to supply more arms to the Kurdish Peshmarga army. Problem is Iran has already been supplying the Kurds because it wants to save the Shia government in Baghdad. Iran does not mind Sunni Kurds fighting Sunni IS but the government in Baghdad wants to stop the Kurds from selling oil from the wells under its control. Kurds are using a new pipeline through Turkey to sell oil in the open market. Its tankers turn off their transponders to avoid detection. Turkey is going along for now because it must be taking a hefty cut but it is vehemently opposed to an independent Kurdistan. So that is another war in the future. Meanwhile, women from western countries are going to Syria to marry IS fighters for Jihad. This is the kind of Love Jihad we can live with. Buy one way tickets for the whole lot?

Monday, September 08, 2014

Can we bank on our banks?

The bad loans in our banks keep on rising. The trouble is that bad loans are rising not only in absolute numbers but also as a percentage of total loans, which is bad news. Although bank officials and business fellows have colluded in frauds the main culprits are the politicians: their policies and their corruption. We all know about the waiver of all loans to farmers by the Congress in 2008, to win elections in 2009, at cost of Rs 750 billion and now Andhra has announced a waiver scheme at an estimated cost of Rs 540 billion. Andhra is a new state carved out of the old Andhra Pradesh and certainly does not have the money for such a scheme. Not to be outdone the other state, Telengana has also announced a similar scheme which will cost Rs 500 billion and increase bad loans of banks from 2.8% to 8%. The 2 states will expect the center to make up the shortfall in their budgets. The central government should make it absolutely clear that it will not support this criminal waste of public money but it is also guilty of criminal populism by starting a scheme to open bank accounts for everyone who does not have one, which means hundreds of millions of new accounts. Poor people, even those with bank accounts, are rushing to open such accounts because all they are interested in is a loan facility of Rs 5000 which they know they will not have to repay. This is not just disaster for our banks but it turns all the poor into criminals. Those who have repaid their loans feel stupid and rush to take new loans which they do not repay. Where is this money to come from? Only 350 million Indians out of a total of 1,200 million pay income tax and over 80% at the lowest rate. Agricultural income is totally tax free, which means that not only do wealthy farmers pay no income tax but pay no tax on other earnings by hiding them under agricultural income. Is it any wonder that farmers are a major group in parliament, second only to the most favorite occupation of our politicians, which is crime. Since independence, instead of uniting the people, politicians have been slicing and dicing the population into smaller and smaller segments to get elected. We have been divided into majority and minorities, Hindus into SC, ST and OBC, into rural and urban, into rich and poor, into trade groups and many others for the purpose of bribery with public money. So an upper caste, educated Hindu is persecuted into paying income tax but others earning a similar amount will pay nothing and also get handouts. Banks lend with our money which we save with great difficulty after paying high taxes. Politicians have no right to throw it away. It is a crime.

Sunday, September 07, 2014

Does economic amnesia respond to a bash on the head?

In cartoons amnesia is cured by a bang on the head. Maybe economists in India could be bashed on the head from time to time to cure their selective amnesia. One very learned economist regularly writes op-eds for newspapers. In his latest contribution he writes that Mr Modi has been very lucky because the economy was bound to recover from its collapse, that the recovery was due to the policies of the previous Finance Minister, oil prices have fallen and the global economy is starting to grow again. By contrast Chidambaram was an unlucky Finance Minister from 2012-14 because Indians suddenly started to buy gold putting a strain on the Current Account Deficit, the rupee fell from 55 to the dollar to 68 and then settled at 62, oil prices were high and the global economy was stagnating. This is where the writer has suddenly been afflicted by amnesia because he has completely forgotten that Chidambaram was also finance minster from 2004-2008 and the crisis was entirely his doing. He started the NREGA scheme which pays the rural poor for 100 days a year for doing nothing. This cost Rs 2.5 trillion and increased rural wage inflation by providing a floor under wages of rural labor and was partly responsible for the food inflation that followed. He forgave all loans to farmers, at a cost of Rs 750 billion, and he increased salaries of useless civil servants to win elections in 2009.  When he took charge in 2004 retail inflation was at 3.78%, when he left it was near 10%. He exerted enormous pressure on the Reserve Bank not to increase interest rates which meant that interest earned on savings was less than CPI so savers were losing money. Only 2 assets can protect your money from inflation - land and gold. You cannot invest small amounts in land so gold was the only option. The price of oil is highly volatile, reflecting the instability of the middle east, but average prices from 2004-2013 were below $100 a barrel although it went up to $140 in 2008 before falling sharply. The rupee was around 45 to the dollar in 2004, fell to 40 in 2007 and is now around 60 to the dollar. Finally, there is a flood of money coming into our stocks because of very low interest rates in the US, Europe and Japan but the same situation obtained from 2003 when Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, cut interest rate to 1% and kept it there causing the sub-prime crisis in 2008. The Indian economy grew fast on cheap debt and instead of caution Chidambaram was swanning around in Davos on taxpayer expense. Either the writer is deliberately mendacious or he has amnesia. Maybe a bash on the head will help.