Adani and Agarwal.

Yesterday, "After falling non-stop for seven consecutive trading sessions, shares of Nifty stock Adani Enterprises were on a downward trajectory on opening but soon bounced back to rally 24.5% from day's low to hit day's high at Rs 1,373.30." ET. One reason was that "lenders led by the State Bank of India (SBI) that are conducting an annual review of Adani Enterprises have decided to maintain status quo on credit limits sanctioned for Gautam Adani's flagship company." SBI is a public sector bank, hence controlled by the government. "It is estimated that out of the $9 billion exposure that Indian banks have to the group, about $1.5 billion is yet to be used, Bankers said there is no internal decision to curtail Adani Group's sanctioned loans, be it term loans or working capital." pressreader. Another public sector bank, "Bank of Baroda will extend loans to the conglomerate if it meets the lender's underwriting standards, said Sanjiv Chadha, chief executive officer and managing director, adding that he's not concerned about the market volatility around Adani stocks." ET. Of course, not. Baroda is a city in Gujarat. "Stating that the embattled Adani Group carries 3 times as much debt as it should, valuation guru Aswath Damodaran says it shows bad business practice and not con as alleged in the Hindenburg report." ET. Even if there is no fraud should public sector banks be lending more of our money to the Adani group? "Hindenburg's report suggested that the promoters of the Adani Group pumped up the stock prices, using fake companies and by relying on the services of the infamous Ketan Parekh network of brokers," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. Ketan Parekh was a stockbroker who manipulated prices of certain stocks through circular trading with money borrowed from banks from 1998 to 2001. Shares of Zee telefilms zoomed up from Rs 127 to Rs 10,000 per share. wikipedia. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) "enjoys a wide range of powers to regulate listed firms, stock exchanges, and market intermediaries." "But, "In cases involving large companies, Sebi is often found dragging its feet." Another company may also be in trouble. "Anil Agarwal's once-London-listed Vedanta Resources has a pile of debt, including a $1 billion bond due in January," wrote Andy Mukherjee. Vedanta Resources owns 65% of Hindustan Zinc which "has a cash pile of $2 billion" and "garners between $300 million and $600 million ebitda every quarter". Agarwal wanted to sell THL Zinc Ltd, Mauritius to Hindustan Zinc for $3 billion in phases over 18 months. However, the Indian government, which owns 30% of Hindustan Zinc, "threatened to explore legal avenues" to stop the deal. "Shares of Vedanta Ltd crashed nearly 9 percent (intraday) on Tuesday (yesterday), the biggest fall since September 16 last year," and so, "In the previous eight sessions, the stock has lost nearly 15 percent." "One of the reasons for stock plunge is an over 40 percent rise in bond yields of its parent company Vedanta Resources, ET Now reported." Jump in yields mean a crash in bond prices. Vedanta Resources credit rating is at B-, which is junk. Will banks led to Anil Agarwal? He is not from Gujarat.    

Gangbusters or busted?

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "predicted a dip in the Indian economy from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023. But India's economy is expected to grow at 6.8 percent again in the financial year 2024." HT. So, "India remains the fastest-growing economy in the world with the current estimates surpassing growth in emerging and developing Asia as well as projections on China's economy." "Davos 2023: Even though economists and business leaders around the world are worried about a global recession, there is a strong sense that India will sail through the crisis as it is well-positioned to drive global growth in 2023." BT. "Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal...predicted that India would become the third largest economy in the next five years. Goyal also said that if India continues to grow like this, it will become a $40 trillion economy by 2047 - the centenary year of India's independence." ET. Potentially, the richest country in the world. "In his 2022 Independence Day speech, PM Modi outlined an ambitious (some might say outlandish) goal for India in 2047 - the status of a developed country," wrote economist Surjit S Bhalla. Is it achievable? Absolutely, says Bhalla. "If India's per capita income in constant PPP (purchasing power parity) dollars grows 4.1% annually, a very realistic prospect, it will be in the advanced economies club in a quarter of a century." "The Union Budget's focus on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment and push the GDP growth rate close to 7 percent in the next financial year beginning April 1, said a Reserve Bank (RBI) article on 'State of the Economy'. BS. "We believe that India will decouple from macroeconomic projections of current vintage and also from the rest of the world. In our view, the instrument of decoupling will be the Union Budget by raising India's growth prospects over the period 2023-27; raising India's potential growth," the RBI's article. One budget, growth for five years. Ingenious. Even, "Nouriel Roubini, a professor emeritus of Stern School of Business, New York University - who earned the nickname 'Dr Doom' after famously predicting the 2008 US subprime crisis - recently said India could realise a growth rate of 7% or even higher over the medium term with the right policy interventions, and its economy would likely expand at a faster pace than China's over the next decade." ET. After all the hype, "India's economic growth appears to be 'very fragile' and it may fall short of what the country needs to meet the aspirations of its growing workforce, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said." TOI. He even voted against the tiny 25 basis points rise in interest rate, RBI, even though retail inflation jumped to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December. Reuters. Presumably soaring prices will help the "aspirations of its growing workforce". So, is India growing gangbusters or is the economy bang-busted? Can't be both.

Police arresting police.

Earlier this month, "In what is being described as yet another case of cow vigilantism leading to the loss of life, merely 100 kilometers from the national capital, two Muslim men from Rajasthan-Haryana border were allegedly attacked and abducted by a mob that later set them ablaze, alive while they were inside their car." The Wire. "According to Rajasthan Police sources, 25-year-old Nasir and 35-year-old Junaid alias Juna were attacked by a group of four men after being suspected of smuggling cows for slaughter...in Haryana's Nuh." NDTV. They were taken to a police station but, seeing how badly injured the two men were, the Haryana Police sent the men away. The two men died shortly after. Their bodies were taken 200 km away to Bhiwani, Haryana, where petrol was poured on the Bolero SUV which was set on fire. Forensic analysis has established that the two charred bodies inside the burnt out Bolero are those of Mohammed Junaid and Mohammed Nasir, HT. Instead of helping the Rajasthan Police in solving the crime, the "Haryana Police has registered a case against 30 to 40 unnamed Rajasthan police personnel in Nuh on a complaint by a woman that her pregnant daughter-in-law lost her child after she was allegedly assaulted by them during a raid to nab her son Srikant, who is among the accused in the abduction-murder case." DH. Last year, "Haryana Police stopped a team of Punjab police" who had arrested "Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) Delhi-based leader Tejinder Singh Bagga." TOI. The government of Haryana state is controlled by the BJP. wikipedia. Brazenly, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, who is serving a jail sentence for rape and muder, has been repeatedly released on parole by the Haryana government. TOI. Haryana Chief Minister ML Khattar's political adviser Krishan Bedi and BJP Rajya Sabha MP Krishan Lal Panwar were seen performing 'charan vandana' (puja at the feet) of Ram Rahim. Along with cases against Rajasthan Police the Nuh Police said "they have booked more than 500 people for blocking the Nuh-Alwar highway during a protest to demand the arrest" of those who killed the two Muslim men. HT. And, as is common in India the "Haryana govenrment...suspended all mobile internet services in the Nuh district till February 28, saying the decision has been taken to deal with possibilities of communal tension and disturbance of public peace." HT. For the fourth year running, India boasted the highest number of internet shutdowns in 2021. "Jammu and Kashmir was the site of 85 of the 106 shutdowns." TN. "Jaish-e-Mohammad backed terror group People's Anti Fascist Front (PAFF) has issued a letter in which it has threatened to attack the newly discovered Lithium mines in the Jammu and Kahsmir." TN. Meanwhile, Hindu temples are being vandalised in Australia. NDTV. What is a greater threat for us Hindus? Terrorist attacks? Or, our religion being used as a cover for rape and murder? Terrorists can kill a few. Desecration will destroy all Hindus. 

It's in the name.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) need not keep raising rates until prices fall as it risks overshoooting the inflation-adjusted real rate, which at around 1% is appropriate for the economy, an external member of the country's monetary policy committee (MPC) said." ET. This member is economist Prof Ashima Goyal. A real interest rate is an interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation. Investopedia. Which means we need to subtract the rate of headline inflation (wikipedia), from the interest rate set by the RBI. In its latest meeting, from 6-8 February 2023, the MPC increased the interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.5%, RBI, with Prof Goyal voting against the rate hike. This, despite the fact that "India's annual retail inflation rate rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, government data showed. So, the rate of inflation being higher than the interest rate should mean that the real rate is negative. Apparently, Prof Goyal's assertion of a real rate of 1% is based on RBI's projection of inflation one year later. "The real policy rate, which adjusts for the expected level of inflation a year down the line, is at about 0.9% right now based on the RBI's projection of the consumer price inflation coming down to 5.6% by the fourth quarter of 2023-24." "Inflation in the next fiscal year is expected to be 5.3% for 2023-24, with Q1 at 5%, Q2 at 5.4%, Q3 at 5.4% and Q4 at 5.6%." ET. How good is the RBI at predicting inflation in the future? Since December 2019 the rate of consumer price (CPI) inflation has been above the RBI's mandate of 4% every single month. rate-inflation.com. "In October 2021, the MPC said, 'The CPI headline momentum is moderating with easing of food prices which, combined with favorable base effects, could bring about a substantial softening in inflation in the near term'." wrote Vivek Kaul. "The median retail inflation has stood at 7% from November 2021 to September. The median core inflation has been 6% during the period." "In FY2022 (1 April 2021-31 March 2022), the monthly inflation rate ranged from 4.3 to 7%," wrote Madan Sabnavis. The average was 5.5%. "Now, if the same concept is brought in for FY 2023, the first nine months (April-December 2022) clocked an average of 6.8%." "Whether it is 4% (RBI target) or 6.8%, lower inflation doesn't mean prices are falling. It only means the pace of grief is slowing." The RBI's mandate is to maintain inflation at 4%, with a margin of 2% on either side. ET. However, the RBI seems to be aiming for the upper limit of 6% as its target. Why is the RBI ignoring its mandate so blatantly? "As the public debt manager of the government, the RBI had to help the government borrow money at low interest rates," and "If the RBI had acknowledged persistent high inflation as a problem, then it would have become very difficult to explain as to why it wasn't raising interest rates." Has the RBI been deceiving the people out of loyalty to the government? In India, the top 5% own 60% of the country's wealth, while the bottom 50% possess only 3%. TIE. With ever rising prices, "Consumer demand has been moderating since August 2021." Mint. At some point the RBI may have to explain to its master why growth is slowing. ET. Perhaps, members of the MPC should read the RBI's name in full. It is the Reserve Bank of India. Not of the government. 

Starched, sanitised and detoxified.

"Nouriel Roubini, a professor emeritus of Stern School of Business, New York University - who earned the nickname 'Dr Doom' after famously predicting the 2008 US subprime crisis - recently said India could realise a growth rate of 7% or even higher over the medium term with the right policy interventions, and its economy would likely expand at faster pace than China over the next decade." ET. "It (India) has the largest population (which is still growing), and with a per capita GDP that is just one-quarter that of China's, its economy has enormous scope for productivity gains," wrote Prof Roubini. But, "India has moved to an economic model where a few 'national champions' - effectively large private oligopolistic conglomerates - control significant parts of the old economy." As a result "these conglomerates have have been able to capture policymaking to benefit themselves," so that "it is changing the government's 'Make in India' program into a counterproductive, protectionist scheme."  "Adani Group, whose stock exchange valuation outperformed Mukesh Ambani's Reliance and Ratan Tata's TCS, has lost over Rs 12 lakh crore (Rs 12 trillion) in a month since the Hindenburg report alleging 'brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud' was published." HT. "The saga has shone a light on the relationship between India's business and political elite, bringing into question whether India, faced with accusations of crony capitalism, can become global economic juggernaut like its nearest Asian competitor, China." Time. "Now, after all the chaos and controversy, a bot and a human-run account have surfaced online to track the movement of Adani Jets." India Times. "Since starting yesterday, many posts have been uploaded to the page. The account started with tracking the 'Modi X Adani plane VT-APL' which is a Challenger 605 plane." Meanwhile, "Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the last quarter slipped to an annual 4.6%, according to the median forecast of 42 economists." ET. "The monthly survey also showed growth in Asia's third-largest economy was expected to slow further to 4.4% in the current quarter, lower than 6.5% official government estimate published on Jan. 31." "George Soros, 92, said in a speech...that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be weakened as a politician due to the financial troubles Gautam Adani finds himself in." DNA. "The UK government has strongly defended the BBC and its editorial freedom in Parliament after the (Indian) Income-Tax Department's survey operations on the UK-headquartered media corporation's New Delhi and Mumbai offices." NDTV. "In the run-up to the polls in 2014, when Modi was 'made ready' for 'national politics', one of the planet's largest and costliest PR exercises was undertaken, after which a starched, sanitised, detoxified Modi emerged from an apparent political vacuum and enchanted a disenchanted polity.' DH. Modi is surrounded by his phalanx of stormtroopers, dependent on him for their fortunes, and ready to attack anyone daring to taint their anointed prophet. They know that a loss of power will surely lead to settling of accounts and will therefore commit any atrocity to defend their master. But, for how long? The stopwatch has started.

Use like to cure like.

"India is hosting the first major G20 event under its year-long presidency at the summer retreat of Nandi Hills near Bengaluru." BT. While India has proudly "declared a temporary no-fly zone within a kilometer radius of Hotel Taj West End from January 4 to 11", DH, for our VVIPs and for foreign delegates, "Pakistan Defence minister Khwaja Asif has said that the country has already defaulted amid looming fears that the cash-starved country may go bankrupt and blamed the establishment, bureaucracy and politicians for the prevailing economic crisis." TOI. "Pakistan is currently in the deepest economic crisis in its history. Many essential food items are now unaffordable for large swathes of the country's population," wrote Sandipan Deb. "The Sensitive Price Index (SPI), used to measure short term inflation, rose to 38.42 percent on a year-on-year basis in the outgoing week," according to "the latest data of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics." ET. That must be agony for the poor. "Petrol prices were raised by Rs 22 (in Pakistani currency) to Rs 272 a liter." One US dollar buys 261 Pakistani rupees, xe.com, which means that, at PKR 272, one liter of petrol costs $1.04 in Pakistan. In India, the price of petrol in Delhi is Rs 96.72 per liter, ET, while the dollar is worth 82.73 INR, xe.com. Which means that petrol costs $1.17 in Delhi and an eye-watering $1.35 in Mumbai. "It makes absolutely no sense to provide any sort of succour to Pakistan. Any financial or food aid would possibly not even reach most of those who need it - the country's incredibly corrupt elite would loot the bulk of it," wrote Deb. So true. "Pakistan should be made to remain busy full-time in solving its internal problems, almost all of which it has created for itself. That will keep it distracted from its deranged anti-India ambitions." That is not certain. Pakistan was hit by devastating floods from 14 June to October 2022, that killed 1,739 people and left 2.1 million homeless. wikipedia. 1,164,270 livestock killed, 897,014 houses and crops destroyed, causing $14.9 billion worth of damage and $15.2 billion in economic losses. In January, over 100 people were killed by a suicide bomber at a mosque in Peshawar's Police Lines area. Dawn. The attack was most likely carried out by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Last week, the TTP accepted responsibility for an attack on the police headquarters in Pakistan's largest city Karachi which killed 2 officers and one civilian. TOI. "The TTP is an alliance of militant networks formed in 2007 to unify opposition against the Pakistani military." dni.gov. "TTP leaders also publicly say that the group seeks to establish an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan that would require the overthrow of the Pakistani government." Meanwhile, "The rising inflation has hit the Pakistani army, affecting the food supply chain the soldiers' mess, according to a top military source." News 18. In 2022, Pakistan had 100-120 nuclear weapons. Reuters. Imagine the threat to India if the TTP manages to get hold of these weapons. True, the Pakistani elite and the upper echelons of its armed forces are utterly corrupt. Therefore, they have every reason to fear and hate the TTP. Isn't it better to help our known enemy beat the unknown one? Like homeopathy.

Sock puppets and shell entities.

In 2006, "I visited Gautam Adani's new Mundra port and was struck by its high automation and speed. I was astounded to hear that it financially compensated any ship that was not admitted and unloaded on schedule. While working in Mumbai in 1990, I had seen ships wait 20 days for port entry, So, Mundra seemed to be on another planet," admired Swaminathan SA Aiyar. By slowing his growth rate, the Hindenburg report will be a blessing in disguise. "One day I might actually buy Adani shares." In passing Aiyar acknowledges that any crimes must be punished, but is unstinting in his admiration for the business acumen of Adani. So, the end justifies the means, does it? After the Hindenburg report "lopped off $132 billion in market value from Gautam Adanis' empire," "it has brought in Kekst CNC as a global communications advisor, Bloomberg news reported." ET. "The Adani group has also engaged American law firm Wachtel, Lipton, Rosen & Katz to fight back against the short seller's claims, the Financial Times reported." "Wachtel is one of the most expensive law firms." However, Adani Enterprises "rubbished reports of hiring US-based accountancy firm Grant Thornton for independent audit of is firms after the Hindenburg fallout." DH. So Adani is prepared to spend huge money for lawyers to try and shut any whistleblower but not for an independent audit of his accounts. That, surely, fails the smell test. How does Adani silence his critics? "Independent Indian journalist Paranjoy Guha Thakurta is being sued by tycoon Gautam Adani's business empire in six different courts - and he is not allowed to speak about the conglomerate or its owner." ET. Legal costs and attending cases in different courts are clearly meant to harass and bully. "For more than a decade, sockpuppets - some of them being company employees - created 'puffery' around tycoon Gautam Adani, his family and the apples-to-airport group he helmed by adding non-neutral material and removing warnings from information on Wikipedia, the free internet-based encyclopedia alleged." ET. Wikipedia's independent newspaper "The Signpost alleged that over 40 sock puppets or undeclared paid editors created or revised 9 articles on the Adani family and their businesses," "listing IP addresses that edited information on Adani, his wife Priti, son Karan, nephew Pranav and group companies." BS. Gautam's brother, "Vinod Adani, through several close associates, manages a vast labyrinth of offshore shell entities," the report said identifying entities in Mauritius, Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and several Caribbean Islands. These entities "regularly and surreptitiously transact with Adani," the report added. ET. We hope that Adani or his family have not broken any US laws. Any warrant issued in the US would be hard to avoid. The US does not allow anticipatory bail like India. He was wise, very wise, to engage expensive US lawyers.    

An old man.

"Certainly, the rupee over time could become one of the variety of global reserve currencies in the world," said Prof Nouriel Roubini. ET. "One can see how the Indian rupee could become a vehicle of currency for some of the trade that India does with the rest of the world, especially South-South trade." The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has permitted certain banks to open 'vostro accounts' in foreign banks which will "facilitate import-export trade in the (Indian) rupee". BS.  'Vostro' means 'your'. "A vostro account is an account a correspondent bank holds on behalf of another bank." Investopedia. Thus, a vostro is a specific account in a country which has accepted trade in rupees with India. "The European Union has suggested that India liberalize its capital account restrictions as part of a comprehensive free trade agreement being discussed with New Delhi." pressreader. In 2021, the RBI hinted at full capital account convertibility for the Indian rupee which would allow Indians unrestricted conversion to any foreign currency. ET. Enter George Soros. Referring to the Adani crisis, Soros said, "(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi is silent on the subject, but he will have to answer questions from foreign investors and in parliament." "This will significantly weaken Modi's stranglehold on India's federal government," and "I may be naive, but I expect a democratic revival in India." To which, Union Minister Smriti Irani went ballistic. "Today, as a citizen I call upon every Indian and organisation, societal and political, to denounce the intentions of this individual who seeks to demonise our democracy and who brings an onslaught to the economy of India so that he can personally gain." The lady doth protest too much, methinks." wikipedia. Rage usually comes from fear. "George Soros has had some experience taking short bets on sovereign currencies, and winning, in the past." FE. In 1997, "George Soros bought forward contracts that sought to exchange the (Thai) baht at a certain price against the dollar. However, when the baht fell and wiped off over half its value, Soros bought a billion dollars worth of the devalued currency on the spot market, and sold it using his forward contracts, effectively doubling his money. He repeated the same modus operandi with the Malaysian ringgit." In 1992, Soros shorted the British Pound, forcing it to drop out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), and reputedly made $1 billion in less than one week. ET. "Mr Soros is an old, rich opinionated person sitting in New York who still thinks that his views should determine how the entire world works," Minster of External Affairs S Jaishankar vituperated. India is the "mother of democracy" proclaimed Mr Modi in parliament. HT. Why then are his followers so terrified of the First Amendment of the US Constitution? The White House. Suggests that 'Daal mein kuch kala hai'. Means 'something is fishy'. Definitely. 

PPP and per capita.

"Whether one is a developed country or not is a matter of definition," wrote Surjit S Bhalla. "Whatever the definition, we know that it cannot be the size of the economy, nor can it be in dollar terms." "If we go by quality of life, it must incorporate the constituents of freedom, political and economic, ie democracy and openness, health, education - and per capita income. Income must be measured in constant per capita PPP (purchasing power parity)." PPP is calculated by taking the price of a basket of goods in local currencies in different countries and then converting it to dollars. ET. By using this metric China becomes the richest country in the world with a GDP by PPP of $25.3 trillion while India's GDP jumps to $10.5 trillion, Investopedia, from the nominal GDP estimated at $3.5 trillion on 31 March 2023, according to the Economic Survey. ET. Why is Bhalla so keen on PPP? Because, in nominal terms, average income in India was $2,150 in 2021, lower than that of Bangladesh at $2,570, and way below the US at $70,930. World Data. But, using PPP, India's per capita income was $6,067 in 2021-22, "about a third of a developed country's level of PPP $18,000." From 1991-2019, India's per capita GDP in constant PPP grew at 4.5% while that of the world excluding India grew at 2.2%. So, we need to grow at 4.1% over the next 26 years to become a developed country. How facile! Per capita GDP is not the same as per capita income, and per capita calculation gives an average which hides the enormous difference in wealth, education and access to healthcare in India. "Oxfam India's report on inequality in India...finds that just 5 percent of Indians own more than 60 percent of the country's wealth, while the bottom 50 percent of the population possess only 3 percent of the wealth." TIE. "The combined wealth of India's 100 richest has touched $660 billion (Rs 54.12 lakh crore) - an amount that could fund the entire Union Budget for more than 18 months." Spending on healthcare has been between 1.2% and 1.4% of GDP from 2014 to 2020, rising to 2.1% in 2021-22 but "preliminary indicators suggest suggest that healthcare expenditure is likely to be 1.3%-1.4% of GDP in 2022-23," wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Much lower than 2.5% suggested by The National Health Policy of 2017. Expenditure on education has remained at 2.8% of GDP from 2014-2020, rising to 3.1% in 2020-2022. Half of the 6% of GDP suggested in the 1968 education policy. As for freedom and democracy, the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) empowers the authorities to search, seize and arrest anybody without a warrant and imprison such a person without having to file charges. DH. Meanwhile, India is at 107th on the 2022 Global Hunger Index. If Bhalla is trying to prove his patriotism by trying to muddy the waters with PPP and per capita, he should remember that our nation's motto is 'Satyameva Jayate'. Which means 'Truth Alone Triumphs'.

Stealth fully exposed.

"President Joe Biden defended his decision to shoot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that spent nearly a week flying over US territory..., and said the three other objects shot down over North America in recent weeks likely weren't spy balloons, amid escalating tensions with the Chinese government and criticism from some lawmakers." Forbes. The US has understood at last. "In 2015, the US acknowledged that China had hacked into the security files in the US Office of Personnel Management, accessing over 21 million records," providing the Chinese with "access to the security files of every retired, current and prospective American federal employee including military personnel," wrote Prashant Jha. Also, "China stole trillions of dollars of intellectual property, including terabytes of data and schematics for the F-35 and F-22 stealth fighter jet programs." China's threat to its neighbors has multiplied manifold because of US gullibility. "China's emerging 'B-2 copycat' H-20 stealth bomber is expected to introduce an entirely new sphere of threat dynamics to the US," and "While the exact composition of its stealth properties or radar-signature reducing technologies may not be fully known, available photos and renderings reveal an aircraft which one could say seems in some respects to be indistinguishable from a US B-2." Warrior Maven. "In recent years, under autocratic top leader Xi Jinping, China has increasingly tried to meddle in Indian politics and society, using disinformation on social media platforms to potentially try and wield influence directly and indirectly," wrote Joshua Kurlantzick. Not just fake news, China has grabbed Indian territory. Villagers in Ladakh "claimed that the Indian government 'ceded' land to China after both sides agreed to withdraw troops from contentious areas..., The Guardian reported." Dawn. Around 41 km of grazing land in Kugrang Valley has become the buffer zone which means that the Indian Army has retreated from the Line of Actual Control (LAC). The Hindu. While China continues to flex its muscles with impunity, "Around $300 billion of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves are frozen by sanctions," wrote prof Nilanjan Banik. "Russia can survive this war economically thanks to China and India. What seems to be a zero-sum game for Europe is proving to be a positive-sum game for Russia, China and India." The US cannot impose sanctions on China, as it has on Russia, despite the dollar being the world's reserve currency, wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. "True, it has the ability to block China's official foreign exchange reserves of which two-thirds or approximately $2.1 trillion are held in Western government bonds. But, the catch is that such an action would invite China to seize $3.6 trillion in direct investment and $2.2 trillion in portfolio investment by foreigners in China." "Keep your enemies closer" said Sun Tzu. It means, keep them under surveillance. The US seems to have turned it around.

Shameless color and Soros.

"Indian tax authorities say they have uncovered irregularities in the BBC's accounting books after searches at the broadcaster's offices in the country." BBC. "The allegations come amid a row in India over a BBC documentary." "Following a three-day long survey action on the Mumbai and New Delhi offices of British media company BBC by the Income Tax Department, the Centre on Friday (yesterday) said that the operation revealed several discrepancies and inconsistencies with regard to transfer pricing documentation." ET. This was clearly a vindictive retaliation for airing a documentary: "India: the Modi Question". The raid was covered by well known media channels in the US and UK so that people who had not heard of the documentary will now be curious to see what it contains. Recently the Bollywood movie "Pathan" was attacked by right-wing Hindu groups apparently because a song titled "Besharam Rang", meaning 'shameless color', featured actress Deepika Padukone wearing a saffron-colored swimsuit. ET. As if they own the orange color which, as every schoolchild knows, is part of VIBGYOR. wikipedia. As a result, "This Valentine's Day, Shah Rukh Khan was showered with lots of love from his fans as they thronged the theatres to watch Pathan again." TIE. The movie has grossed Rs 4.8 billion already. The Indian government should remember that Sky TV offers 19 Indian channels in the UK, which will be repatriating profits to India, whereas BBC is probably the only British channel available in India. Megalomania is best restricted for hapless Indian citizens. "Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar...stressed the need for countering 'doctored narratives' that seek to run down India's growth story and described the dumping of information as another way of 'invasion'." DH. Exactly. Indians should, like lobotomized zombies, believe whatever they are told and refrain from accessing information independently. Much like our best friend and teacher China's Great Firewall (wikipedia). "Union Minster Smriti Irani...slammed Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros for attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indian business tycoon Gautam Adani." DNA. Soros said that Modi will have to answer questions from foreign investors. "In 1992, Soros shorted the British pound and reportedly made a profit of USD 1 billion." ET. Soros is watching as the RBI seeks to make the rupee an international currency. TOI. India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $8.3 billion to $566.95 billion in the week ending 10 February, "marking the sharpest drop since April 2022". TOI. The US and UK governments have been restrained because India's rising importance as a counter to China and the recent order for airplanes by Air India. Aol. A fictitious entity called the 'Democratic Party of India', whose registered address was the Indian Embassy at 2107 Massachusetts Avenue, Washington, was used to lobby US lawmakers, according to a report. The Wire. Since 2014, the government has paid over $10 million to lobbying firms. Problem about bluffing is that it has to go on. But, can it go on forever. 

A family business.

"After weeks of getting hammered by bears, Adani stocks had their best day in a month on Thursday (yesterday) as investors showed buying interest at lower levels. Out of the 10 Adani stocks, eight were trading in the green zone, with NDTV and Adani Power locked in their 5% upper circuit limits." ET. The enthusiastic rise in Adani stocks could be as "India's Adani Group has appointed accountancy firm Grant Thornton for independent audit of some of its companies in a bid to discredit claims by short-seller Hindenburg Research that have battered its stocks and bonds." Reuters. Adani Enterprises stocks "climbed 5.36 percent in morning trade to hit a high of 1,873.90. As the session progressed, Adani Enterprises shares cut intraday gains to 1.4 percent after the company denied reports that suggested Adani hired Grant Thornton for audits after Hindenburg fallout." BT. However, even "With shares of Adani Enterprises having fallen 62% from its peak of Rs 4,190, valuation guru Aswath Damodaran says the Nifty stock is still not cheap even if the allegations made in the Hindenburg report are incorrect. A detailed calculation shared by the finance professor in his blog shows that the stock's fair value should be around Rs 945 per share." ET. "Reacting to Aswath Damodaran's valuation of Adani Enterprises, veteran fund manager Devina Mehra said," "If the cost of capital of the company increases anywhere between 10% and 12% the fair value of Adani Enterprises drops to Rs 645." ET. Cost of capital may already be going up. "The conglomerate, with businesses stretching from ports to renewable energy, tapped international bond buyers for more than $8 billion in recent years, while also turning to global banks for at least as much in foreign-currency loans, data complied by Bloomberg show. ET. Some of the bonds pared their losses "with many now trading in the 70 cent range." "Still, in a sign of how much funding costs have surged, the yield on Adani Green's September 2024 bond is indicated at about 24%." Stock market gurus, mutual fund managers, "Basically, anyone whose income is dependent on more and more people buying listed stocks, directly as well as indirectly," are "bullish all the time," wrote Vivek Kaul. "The number of demat accounts (essential for investing in stocks) rose to 11 crore (110 million) in January 2023, compared to 8.4 crore (84 million) in the year ago period, implying an increase of 31%." TOI. 2.2 million accounts were added in January alone. Little wonder therefore that "Aftershocks from the Hindenburg report have knocked out over Rs 10 trillion of Adani Group's market value since its publication in late January." Mint. Adani has denied that his friendship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has anything to do with his meteoric rise. Time. And yet, after Hindenburg's revelation of dirty linen there was an outpouring of Tweets with fake allegations against Hindenburg containing the "same unique spelling error", with BJP leaders endorsing claims by retweeting the lies. The Wire. Will Adani come roaring back? of course. It's a family business, after all. A national family. 

Running away to stay put.

In the US, "The employment picture started off 2023 on a stunningly strong note," as "Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 for January, above the Dow Jones estimate of 187,000 and December's gain of 260,000, according to a Labor Department report." CNBC. "The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969. The labor force participation rate edged higher to 62.4%." On the other hand the unemployment rate in India was 7.8% on 15 February 2023. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). "Digging deeper, the labor force participation rate in India - the fraction employed or looking for a job - is currently around 46%," wrote Prof Raghuram Rajan et al. "So, for every 100 Indians of working age, a staggering 54 are not participating in the labor force." "The share of salaried or regular wage urban workers, who are the best paid, was 48.6% and 48.7% in the first two quarters of 2022-23 (April-September 2022)," wrote Abhishek Jha. "On the other hand, the share of self-employed urban workers was higher than pre-pandemic levels." "Self-employed workers also include the subcategory of unpaid workers in family enterprises." People who work in unproductive jobs without earning any money are classed as 'disguised unemployment'. cleartax.in. With unemployment lowest since May 1969 in the US, it is natural that "Sales at retailers rose far more than expected in January," as "Advance retail sales for the month increased 3%, compared with expectations for a rise of 1.9%, the Commerce Department reported." CNBC. China took full advantage. "Total merchandise trade between the two countries rose to $690.6 billion last year, exceeding the record set in 2018, Commerce Department data showed." ET. "The annual goods-trade deficit with China widened 8% to $382.9 billion." While China gained, "India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 percent to $32.91 billion compared to $35.23 billion in the same month last year, data from the commerce ministry showed." ET. Perhaps, the good thing is that the trade deficit dropped to $17.75 billion in January because imports declined by 3.63% to $50.66 billion. "US consumer prices accelerated in January," as "In the 12 months through January, the CPI increased 6.4%. That was the smallest gain since October 2021 and followed a 6.5% in December." Reuters. "India's annual retail inflation rate rose to 6.52% from 5.72% in December, government data showed." Reuters. "Federal Reserve officials said...the US central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation and suggested sticky price pressures driven by a hot jobs market may push borrowing costs higher than they once thought." ET. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was pleased that CPI inflation will probably fall to 6.5% in 2022-23 and to 5.3% in 2023-24. ET. While the Fed is determined to get inflation down, the RBI is smiling although "The core inflation, which excluded food and fuel, was above 6% in January, as per government data." ET. In the US, "Tech companies shed more than 150,000 workers in 2022." Reuters. Nearly 80,000 Indians on H1B and L1 visas have been laid off in the US. Mint. A 14-year-old girl of Indian parents is missing for over 3 weeks because she is afraid of being deported to India if her father loses his job. NDTV. She has a point. Who would want to leave a country creating wealth for the people and come to a country determined to stay poor? That's why her parents escaped from here.

Ain't gonna happen.

"The ongoing negotiations of India for the proposed comprehensive free trade agreements with the UK and European Union are on track," a top government official said in January 2023. ET. In the latest round of talks the EU apparently asked for the rupee to be fully convertible on the capital account. Mint. "As of 2019, the Indian rupee is a partially convertible currency," Investopedia. The rupee is convertible on the current account. "Current account convertibility implies that the Indian rupee can be converted to any foreign currency at existing market rates for trade purposes for any amount." "Capital account convertibility allows freedom to convert local financial assets into foreign financial assets and vice-versa." From Rs 3.31 to one dollar in 1948, bookmyforex.com, to Rs 82.86 to one dollar this morning, xe.com, India's currency has been falling by over 1 rupee per year against the dollar. The slow drip of devaluation of the rupee combined with the negative real interest rate forced on us by the Reserve Bank (RBI) makes it highly possible that millions of Indians will rush to convert their savings into foreign currency to prevent the massive wealth erosion that we are made to suffer. Hence capital account convertibility can never be allowed. "As the Asian currency crisis of 1997 showed, large panic outflows can leave an economy shaken," reminded a Mint editorial. "To minimize exposure, the Tarapore Committee had laid out a path to convertibility with preconditions that had to be met for the sake of safety. The panel asked for fiscal consolidation, a mandated inflation target and the strengthening of our financial system." None of these conditions have been achieved. India's retail inflation rose to 6.52% in January from 5.72% in December, Reuters, "Aiming to reach a fiscal deficit level below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has fixed the deficit the deficit for 2023-24 at 5.9%, ET, and "Aftershocks from the Hindenburg report have knocked out over Rs 10 trillion of Adani Group's market value since its publication late January." Mint. However, capital account convertibility of the rupee is probably the last of the choke points in the negotiations. "The two sides are also negotiating an investment protection agreement (IPA), which will contain investment protection standards and an independent mechanism to settle disputes between investors and states under international law," wrote Prof Prabhash Ranjan. After being made to eat humble pie and return Rs 79 billion to Cairn Energy, which attached Indian properties in France, BS, the government is unlikely to agree to any bilateral investment treaty. Just weeks after the BBC a documentary critical of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the UK, "BBC offices in India have been searched as part of an investigation by income tax authorities." BBC. Winning an election means total power to commit any ruthless persecution. India will never agree to an IPA. The FTA is never going to happen.   

The right technology.

"In recent years, under autocratic top leader Xi Jinping, China has increasingly tried to meddle in Indian politics and society, using disinformation on social media platforms to wield influence directly or indirectly," wrote Joshua Kurlantzick. "Beijing's approach also reflects shifts in the mindset of the Chinese leadership. It is much more willing to throw its weight around globally and attempt to displace other Asian powers." "Like India, many countries should reassess whether they should allow TikTok to operate unless users' data is stored on local servers." However, Swaminathan SA Aiyar sees it differently. "Cutting oneself from China means cutting oneself from global capital, technology and value chains. This harms us more than China," he wrote. "If we have a thousand contacts, we can cut off a few in response to each provocation, choosing those that hurt us least. If we have just ten points of contact, any cut-off will likely hurt India as much as China." Thousand points of contact resulted in, "Trade between India and China touched an all-time high of $136 billion in 2022," but "China's exports to India climbed to $119 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%. During 2022, China's imports from India dwindled to $17.5 billion, a year-on-year decline of 38%." Which means a transfer of $101.5 billion from India to China. Seems as if China doesn't mind cutting off 10 points of contact. "After PLA troops marched into Indian territory in Ladakh, the Modi government took 'strong steps' to punish and deter China," wrote Sushant Singh. But "The Modi government has failed to execute even the time-tested responses available in Indian plans since the 1980s. To counter a PLA ingress, Indian security planners have always banked on a quid-pro-quo or QPQ against lightly held Chinese areas." To use as bargaining chips. "Right now, China seems to hold all the cards during negotiations and refuses to even discuss the militarily important areas of Depsang and Demchok, where the PLA has blocked Indian patrols." "Locals near India's border with China in the mountainous region of Ladakh have claimed that the Indian government 'ceded' land to China after both sides agreed to withdraw troops from contentious areas...The Guardian reported." Dawn. This after 20 Indian soldiers sacrificed their lives defending Indian land when brutish Chinese thugs launched a sudden unprovoked attack at Galwan Valley in June 2020, using clubs with nails. BBC. "China's new claim to global leadership is the first 'real challenge' to Asia's existing security architecture, which has been in place since the end of the Korean war in 1953, Felix Heiduk ... wrote." DW. Sadly, a recent rumor of a coup inside China proved to be unfounded. India Today. Instead of a thousand contacts we should aim for a thousand cuts. Lingchi technology from China.    

Teacher to the world.

Then BJP President Amit Shah said in 2017," Swami Vivekananda, whose birth name was also Narendra, had predicted that India would become Vishwa Guru  in the 21st century, and it is coming true under Narendra Modi's leadership." The Messiah concurred. "I see the next five years as crucial and important time not only for Gujarat but also for the entire world. This is an opportunity for another renaissance that will make India a vishwa guru (world leader)," Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in Gujarat after his general election victory in May 2019. India will become Vishwa Guru by 2047 under the leadership of PM Modi, said Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. "Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar...said India is set to become a 'Vishwa Guru' again as he stressed on the need for right education and thinking." Outlook. What does Mr Dhankar mean by "right education and thinking"? "A new initiative can be taken soon to promote Vedic education in India." India TV. "Under the National Education Policy (NEP), a special Vedic education board will come into existence to maintain the relevance of the text of Vedas in modern society." That must be "right education". In 2021, the government postponed an examination on 'cow science' after a huge controversy. TOI. A conference titled 'Vayu - The Vital Life Force' was held in Odisha from 2-4 December. krishijagran. com. "Everything in nature, according to the Panchmahabhoot concept, is made up of five elements: Earth, Water, Fire, Air and Space." So, who is "right thinking"? Is a Bhakt a "right thinking" person? A 'Bhakt' used to mean 'one who is devoted to God' but has now come to mean 'An ardent supporter of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or its leader Narendra Modi'. wiktionary. Like religious fanatics these people are unthinking in their devotion to Modi, will provide excuses, however illogical, for everything that is wrong with the country, and will usually react with verbal, or even physical, violence to any criticism. There is a "growing trend of music on YouTube and other social media platforms where supporters of the Hindu right-wing spew venom at Muslims." BBC. "The lyrics are abusive or threatening. They are usually based on the premise that Hindus have suffered for centuries at the hands of Muslims - and now its payback time." But, people do not like being forced. Ramcharitmanas, an epic Hindu poem on Lord Ram, is creating controversy as "politicians on opposing sides have been arguing over whether the text is derogatory towards women as well as Dalits." BBC. Modi was born on 17 September 1950, wikipedia, which means he will be one month shy of 97 years of age on 15 August 2047, when India will celebrate 100 years of Independence. Will his disciples be around to celebrate Vishwa Guru status? Meanwhile, we are making the world laugh as we were told to celebrate Valentine's Day as "Cow Hug Day". CNN. 'Vishwa' means 'world' and 'guru' means 'teacher'. Bhakts are fanatics. What can they teach? 

Why Indians believe murky foreigners.

Hindenburg Research belongs to the "murky world" of activist short sellers who "Identify a company whose stock they judge as grossly overpriced," then "Borrow shares of the company from one or more brokers, sell them at the going overvalued price and then publish the report online." When share prices fall "the short seller buys as many shares he had borrowed and sold and returns them to the brokers." wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. The Hindenburg-Adani episode "has demonstrated that allegations acquire special credibility with the Indian public when they are leveled by an entity based abroad," he writes contemptuously. That is because "Out of the 539 winners analysed in Lok Sabha 2019, 233 MPs (members of parliament) have declared criminal cases against themselves." India Today. A study by Dr Milan Vaishnav found that candidates with criminal records "had an 18% chance of winning their next election whereas the 'clean' candidates had only a 6% chance." BBC. Which means that Indians deliberately vote for criminals. One reason is that criminals have more money to spend on campaigning but the main reason is that criminals can force corrupt bureaucrats to perform their duties without extracting bribes. Carnegie. But, just because they vote for criminals does not mean they trust them. Hence, Indians believe when foreigners report corruption in India. Panagariya says the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) "should have been able to give its verdict fast". Even if it exonerates Adani, Indians will still hold their noses. "For nearly 18 months. about a dozen executives from the forensic team of consulting firm Ernst and Young (EY) went about investigating the true identity of the Himalayan yogi, the mystic who called the shots at the National Stock Exchange (NSE) between 2013 and 2016," wrote Varun Sood. The CEO of the NSE Chitra Ramakrishna allowed this 'yogi' to run a 'co-location scam' at the NSE in which some brokers could access stock prices a few seconds earlier than others allowing them to profit at the cost of others. News18. EY provided "bank statements, phone records, snapshots of Word and Excel files and geotagged images to prove the location of the unnamed person (yogi)," "And yet, Sebi in its order, dismissed the findings of the EY team." Shares of one Adani Group company was trading at price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 790 in September 2022, while "five of them have PE multiples of above 100x". ET. Sebi did nothing. Adani denied knowledge of "billions of dollars that flowed from Vinod Adani (brother of Gautam Adani) - associated offshore shell entities through the Adani Group," wrote Hindenburg. "Round tripping" refers to selling and purchasing shares of a company, thus creating an illusion of high demand and increasing their prices. Investopedia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Adani are from Gujarat and, "As Modi climbed through the political ranks, he also displayed a close friendship with Adani". Time. Modi became prime minister in 2014 and "During this period, Adani's wealth increased by nearly 230% from $1.9 billion in 2014 to more than $26 billion this year." At 72% popularity, Modi is the most popular leader in the world. Reuters. But, Indians will still believe 'murky' foreigners.   

Escape from Amrit Kaal.

"During 2014-15 to 2018-19, Modi's first term as PM, growth in GDP at constant 2011-12 prices was 7.5% per annum. This growth rate dropped sharply to 3.7% in 2019-20 and -6.6% in 2020-21, but rose from its low base to 8.7% in 2021-22. Yet, between 2018-19 and 2021-22, at constant 2011-12 prices, GDP increased by a mere 1.5% (at 0.5% per annum), while GDP per capita increased at about the same pace," wrote Prof Deepak Nayyar. At constant prices means GDP corrected for inflation based on 2011-12 as the base year. Spending on MGNREGA has been reduced to Rs 600 billion in this year's budget from Rs 1.1 trillion in 2020-21 and spending on agriculture, rural development and PM Kisan have stayed the same. Increased outlays on these programs would have increased rural consumption and the "demand so created could have stimulated growth". "Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022 to 6.1 percent in 2023 before picking up to 6.8% in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds," said the IMF's World Economic Outlook update. ET. Growth in private consumption has "come at the cost of household financial savings. Estimates made by economist Nikhil Gupta of Motilal Oawal suggest that net household financial savings 'plunged to a three-decade low of about 4% of GDP' during the first half of 2022-23," wrote Vivek Kaul. Clearly, at some point households will have to limit expenses. "Unlike rural areas, almost half the workers in urban areas are regular workers who receive regular wages/salaries. They are also part of the so-called urban middle class," wrote Prof Himanshu. Wages for regular workers declined by 0.8% between 2017-18 and 2020-21. "The decline was a continuation of the trend seen earlier between 2011-12 and 2017-18 when wages of regular workers declined by 1.7% per annum. Essentially, a regular wage worker was earning 14% lower wages than a decade ago. Much of this decline was among highly educated workers." Falling income of the middle class has consequences. In January, the Gujarat government cancelled an exam to recruit junior clerks after the question paper was leaked. 953,000 people registered for the test for just 1,181 posts. HT. The numbers reveal why "exam leaks are notoriously common across India, where millions are unemployed and in search of secure jobs." BBC. A study by UK financial services provider CMC Markets "has revealed that India is one of the most stock-obsessed countries in the world. Rather it was at second spot just below Singapore." BT. "The government...said in Parliament that more than 16 lakh (1.6 million) Indians gave up their citizenship since 2011, including 2,25,620 last year, the highest during the period." TOI. "According to the UN's refugee agency, over 82,000 Indians had sought asylum around the world in 2022," "And that figure only accounted for applications filed in the first half of 2022, not even the whole year." DH. Our rulers teach us that we are in "Amrit Kaal". 'Amrit' is the nectar for 'eternal life' and 'kaal' means 'the age'. Then why are people trying to escape? 

A prick would have sufficed.

Five days back, "The US has shot down a giant Chinese balloon that it says has been spying on key military sites across America." BBC. An F-22 jet fighter engaged the high altitude balloon with one missile - an AIM-9x Sidewinder - and it went down six nautical miles off the US coast," and "The military is now trying to recover debris which is spread over seven miles (11 km)." At the cost of $381,000 to nearly $400,000 for that one missile, wikipedia, it was a very expensive way to pop a cheap balloon. Presumably the F-22 Raptor carries a cannon, wikipedia, one burst of which could have caused multiple punctures in the balloon at a much lower cost and the debris would have been confined to a smaller area. Unless, it was a political stunt designed to boost President Joe Biden's poll ratings. "China expressed regret over the balloon over the US, saying it was a weather airship that had been blown astray." BBC. "Later the US reported a second Chinese balloon floating over Latin America." "It was equipped with multiple antennas capable of 'intelligence collection operations', a senior State Department official said in a background briefing." BBC. "US officials have described the balloon as being about 220 ft (60m) tall, with the payload portion comparable in size to regional airliners and weighing hundreds - or potentially thousands - of pounds." BBC. "Washington briefed 40 allied countries about the alleged espionage program earlier this week." "China's foreign ministry said the balloon was mainly used for meteorological purposes and had limited self-steering ability." Reuters. "The surveillance balloon effort, which has operated for several years partly out of Hainan province off China's south coast, has collected information on military assets in countries and areas of emerging strategic interest to China including Japan, India, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines," The Washington Post reported. ET. These balloons are operated by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) air force and "have been spotted over five continents". "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a visit to China" because of "clear violation" of US sovereignty. Reuters. Also, "The United States will explore taking action against entities connected to China's military that supported the flight of a Chinese spy balloon into US airspace last week, a senior State Department official said." Reuters. Does China think it can bully all its neighbors without repercussions? Does it think it can conquer whichever country it wants? "Japan signed the international Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which bans it from developing nuclear weapons," but "Japan is happy to let neighbors like China and North Korea believe it is part of the nuclear club, because it has a 'bomb in the basement'," which is "9 tons of plutonium stockpiled at several locations in Japan and another 35 tons stored in France and the UK." NBC. "The US secured access to four additional military bases in the Philippines," with which, "Washington stitched the gap in the arc of US alliances stretching from South Korea and Japan in the north to Australia in the South." To counter the diabolical Chinese 'string of pearls' in the Indian Ocean surrounding India. India Times. Soon, China will collapse like a balloon. No one will help. 

New Zealand showed the way.

"More than 30 years ago, some relatively youthful central bank and Treasury economists in New Zealand were grappling with how to bring to decades of double-digit inflation under control in an economy less than 1% the size of its US counterpart." Reuters. "What if, they asked, they just told everyone the rate should be much lower - say roughly 2% - and then aim for that?" "I just announced it was gonna be 2%, and it sort of stuck," said Roger Douglas, the Labour Party Finance Minister. The 2% inflation limit spread round the world. Prior to that "Governments had engaged in spending sprees to win votes at the expense of inflation." Contrast that with India. "India's central bank...cut its inflation forecast for the country for this fiscal year as the worst of price pressures is seen to be behind, but the governor flagged stickiness of the core inflation to be a matter of concern." ET. Inflation is predicted to be 6.5% instead of 6.7% in 2022-23. Inflation for the next financial year is expected to be 5.3%. The Reserve Bank's (RBI) mandate is to target 4% for consumer price (CPI) inflation with a range of 2% on either side. ET. The wide range of 2-6% is meant for occasional slippage and not to claim success after achieving a level slightly less than 6%. CPI inflation fell to a one-year low of 5.72% in December because food inflation fell to 4.19%. qz.com. But even in food, vegetable prices fell but cereals increased by 13.8%, milk by 8.5% and spices by 20.3%. "Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) has remained elevated at around 6%for the past many months." "India is a consumption-led economy, with private consumption contributing more than 55% to the GDP," wrote Rajani Sinha. "While the upper-income category is showing strong pent-up demand as reflected by jump in sales of luxury goods and services, the lower income category remains cautious in its consumption spending." Poor people suffer much more from rising prices. "While direct consumption boosting measures are a quick fix solution to spur the economy, any further stimulus would have to come at the cost of putting pressure on the government's fiscal balance and inflation." That explains why the RBI is so reluctant to increase interest rates. In this year's Union Budget, "Fiscal deficit in 2023-24 is targeted at 5.9% of GDP, lower than the revised estimate of 6.4% of GDP in 2022-23." PRS. Fiscal deficit is the government's market borrowing to meet the shortfall in revenue. Even though fiscal deficit is predicted to be lower, "The ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to increase over the next financial year, despite this fiscal correction," wrote Niranjan Rajadhyaksha. "India's debt ratio is projected to be 84% of its GDP by the end of 2022, which is higher than many emerging economies, but its debt is a little bit easier, a senior IMF official has said." The Hindu. One way to reduce debt is by allowing higher inflation, the higher the prices the higher is the tax collection on goods and services (GST). "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated in its recent report on the Indian economy that the primary deficit consistent with stabilizing public debt is 2.3% of GDP." General election in 2024. Inflation helps the government, hurts the poor and the rich don't care. New Zealand's government cared for its people. Ours don't. It's not fiscal deficit, it's a deficit of character.    

Baseless wealth.

"Shares of several Adani Group listed companies have bounced back strongly on the stock market, a day after the Adani-owned conglomerate prepaid loans worth $1.1 billion to release pledged shares of group companies." "After getting hammered for eight trading sessions following the release of a negative report by Hindenburg Research, Adani Group stocks...staged a smart recovery with Adani Enterprises hitting its 20% upper circuit limit." ET. "Adani Group is considering independent evaluation of issues relating to legal compliance, related party transactions and internal controls following a US short-seller's critical report on its businesses. disclosures showed." ET. In an interview with CNBC-TV18, "JN Gupta, former ED of SEBI (Securities and Exchange Board of India), stated that there is nothing new in the Hindenburg report." What does it mean? Does it mean that whatever Adani is doing has the blessing of regulators because, 1. everything is completely legal and ethical, or 2. the regulators are turning a blind eye to what he is doing because of his connections? Adani is from Gujarat and has said that allegations of his friendship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is "baseless". HT. Opposition members of the Lok Sabha have been raising slogans of "Adani Sarkar" (government of Adani) and want an investigation by a Joint Parliamentary Committee. The Wire. "As per Gupta, there is no debt pressure in most Adani Group companies and he expressed confidence in the fact that the Indian market regulator having a sound risk management system in place." However, BJP member Subramanian Swamy tweeted on 15 January 2021, "Trapeze Artist Adani now owes Rs 4.5 lakh crores (Rs 4.5 trillion) as NPA (non-performing assets) to banks." "Yet his wealth is doubling every two years since 2016." In an interview with Bloomberg Quint, lawyer Cyrus Shroff said,"Today, our policy-making is increasing the cost of compliance and reducing the cost or not doing much to the cost of non-compliance." "There is an implicit distrust in a lot of legislation that is almost like sab chor hain (everyone is a thief). You cannot take the country from now till 2047 (100th anniversary of Independence) on the assumption of sab chor hain. You have to have a higher level of trust in your citizens." If the government brands everyone a thief, the people will follow. "A disturbing arbitrariness has crept into policymaking, institutions have decayed and the economy's structural deficiencies have worsened," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Zombie business groups are perched atop the debris of debt-fueled expansion, waiting for politicians to signal what role they have, if any." Mr Modi is the most popular leader in the world, with a popularity of 78%. ET. Everyone is a thief. But Adani stocks are rising. Because he is perceived to be safe.