Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Are we trying to emulate our neighbor.

"Shattering the previous record of 10.45 billion US dollars, Pakistan took out 15.32 billion US dollars in new foreign loans in fiscal year 2020-21, according to a new government report," ET. "According to The Express Tribune, the report shows that the incumbent government has almost doubled Pakistan's external debt in just three years, adding 35.1 billion US dollars to take the figure to an astonishing 85.6 billion US dollars." "The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Pakistan was worth 263.69 billion US dollars in 2020, according to official data from the World Bank," TE. It has actually shrunk from a height of $314.57 billion in 2018. In line with economic contraction, "the Pakistani rupee has fallen from Rs 123 against the USD in August 2018 to Rs 177 against the USD in December 2021," a fall of 30.5% in the last 40 months. The last time the Pakistani rupee collapsed was when it fell 58%, from Rs 4.60 to Rs 11 against the USD, after Bangladesh became independent in 1971. Devaluation of the rupee makes imports more expensive so the consumer price index rose by 11.5% in November from 9.2% in October," TE. Pakistan has been negotiating a $6 billion loan from the IMF but has trouble agreeing to the pre-conditions set by the Fund, ET.  In a preemptive move its central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, raised interest rate by 1.5% on 3 December, HT, and then by another 100 basis points (1%) to 9.75% on 14 December, TE. "Unprecedented inflation and a sharp uptick in the unemployment rate in the illegally occupied Gilgit Baltistan have triggered massive protests across different districts of the region," TOI. "The unemployment rate is especially high among the graduates, postgraduates and doctorates who do not have enough opportunities." Since Pakistan is our enemy we should be pleased with its economic troubles. Or, should we? India's GDP was $2.66 trillion, 10 times that of Pakistan, in 2020, World Bank. Of course, India's population is a colossal 1,380 million people, compared to Pakistan's population of 208.57 million, Country Economy. Which means that our GDP per capita is $1,928, a shade higher than Pakistan's per capita GDP of $1,255. The top rate of individual income tax, including surcharge, is 42.7% in India, to just 20%, including surcharge, in Pakistan and standard VAT (GST) in India is at 18% compared to 17% in Pakistan. While CPI inflation in India was much lower than Pakistan, at 4.91%, core CPI inflation was at 6.1%, ET, while wholesale price inflation surged to 14.23% in November. Even so, the RBI has held on to interest rate at 4%, ET. The Indian rupee has fallen from 64.80 to the dollar in May 2018, One India, to 75.63 to the dollar today, Xe, a fall of over 15%. In India too, unemployment among graduates and postgraduates was many times higher than those with only primary school education, BT. Unemployment is lowest (at 0.6%) among rural females who have studied only up to primary school level. The similarities are amazing. Only a matter of degree.

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