Sunday, December 05, 2021

It's the economics of voters which matters.

"Always sacrifice economic sense if it wins a few votes," wrote Swaminathan SA Aiyar. "Too many elections are dominated by three issues -- subsidies, job reservations and communalism." Merit subsidies for elementary and secondary education, food distribution, water supply and sanitation cost 4.5% of GDP, while non-merit subsidies cost 5.7% of GDP. There are a "staggering" 153 statutory holidays in 2022. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is promising 300 units of free electricity to all households in Punjab, NDTV, if it is victorious in the assembly elections which must be held by March 2022, wikipedia. AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal promised 80% reservation in jobs in the private sector for local people of Goa and Rs 5000 for families whose income has been affected by the pandemic, India Today. Then he added 300 units of free electricity and free pilgrimages to shrines of different religions, Scroll. In Delhi, Kejriwal promised 200 units of free electricity and 50% subsidy for 201-400 units in 2019, India Today. In 2020, he won 62 seats out 70 in assembly elections in Delhi, wikipedia. 200 units of free electricity: Been there done that. Now he has to better that with 300 units. Will it keep increasing until all electricity is free or until the system collapses completely with 24-hour blackouts? To woo women voters, Kejriwal has announced "that if voted to power, the AAP will disburse Rs 1,000 to all women above 18 years," HT. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not hanging about either. Last month he announced "the repeal of three controversial farm laws after a year of protests", BBC. "Farm unions are seeing this as a huge victory. But experts say the upcoming state elections in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh -- both have a huge base of farmers -- may have forced the decision." That is obvious. "From calling it a shield for 'andolanjeevies' (professional protesters) to linking it to 'Khalistani (terrorist) agenda' and Maoists, the BJP and its leaders, including Prime Minster Narendra Modi, targeted the farmers' movement over the past one year, before the announcement on repeal of the three farm laws finally came into effect," TIE. "Investors must be wondering what promise New Delhi will break next as the ruling party tries to win the upcoming state elections," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The closer India gets to 2024 general elections, the more the government will want to step out of the shadow of big business, and the more his opponents will try to keep it there. In the process, significant chunks of Modi's economic agenda could get delayed or scrapped." There is a cap on the amount of money candidates can spend on elections but "spending caps are routinely breached and expenses are a sliver of the actual money spent. The problem is not just the money spent but also the opacity of its source," ET. Then there are 'Electoral Bonds'. "Through an amendment to the Finance Act 2017, the Union government has exempted political parties from disclosing donations received through electoral bonds," TIE. "That means voters will not know which individual, company, or organisation has funded which party, and to what extent." Take the subsidies and don't ask. May not make sense to an economist, but it does to voters. In India.     

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