Wednesday, December 08, 2021

RBI is better than the Federal Reserve.

Everyone knew what would happen. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday announced that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had opted to keep the rates unchanged at its latest meet," ET. "The committee voted with a 5:1 majority to maintain an 'accommodative' stance to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis. The reverse repo rate has remained unchanged at 3.35%. Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) & bank rate too have remained unchanged, at 4.25%." Why waste two days yakking when the outcome was already decided? Financial economists were conciliatory. "The decision to hold the policy rates by the MPC is on expected lines," said M Govinda Rao. Exactly. "RBI paints a relatively docile picture on inflation for now whilst it wants to 'assiduously' nurture growth to make it 'self-sustaining' ," said Indranil Pan. Bromide. Debt fund managers were unhappy. Pankaj Pathak believes that "inflation pressures are higher than reported". "RBI Policy this time was more dovish than expected," said Sandeep Bagla. "Fears over inflation flare up, global changes in interest rate policy, and high commodity prices are ignored." "A delayed rate action may lead to risk of a more substantial action, whenever it is taken," feared Sandeep Yadav. The RBI projected retail inflation at 5.3% in the financial year (FY) 2021-22, and at 5% in both first and second quarters of FY 2021-22, FE. This is painted as the RBI following its mandate of keeping retail inflation at 4% with a 2% margin on either side, ET, but inflation is compounding and average consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 5.58% in 2020 and 7.66% in 2019, inflation.eu. In the US, annual CPI inflation has been below 3% since 2012, macrotrends. In the US, "The worry until recently was not that prices would rise, but that they would fall too much, as with Japan's deflation," Fortune. "The intuition is that wages have risen steadily during the pandemic and inflation erodes the value of household debt, improving the purchasing power of salaried workers and reducing their debt burden." But, even in the richest country in the world, inflation hurts the poor more than the wealthy and the rise in wages has already been eroded by rising prices. As for those who are food insecure, "Local food banks are struggling with the strain of backed-up supply chains, inflated grocery prices and increasing gas costs," yahoo. "Central Texas Food Bank is on track to spend $1 million per month in November and December -- up from $100,000 on average pre-pandemic, food bank officials tell Axios." In India, "Given the inflationary pressures, higher demand for wages, rise in telephone tariff, hikes in prices of cars and motorcycles, belief in price pressures is getting entrenched," wrote Govardhana Rangan. "But Governor Das pointed out that Indian inflation is better managed than in the US." Hallelujah. India is a land of milk and honey. Thanks to RBI. And Das.      

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