Tuesday, December 07, 2021

Economics didn't lose to democracy, politics did.

"A government at the zenith of power with a strong majority had listened to the people. It was a victory for India's democracy. But it was a defeat for the farmer, crushing his hopes of freedom from trader cartels, state functionaries and a peasant's life," mourned Gurcharan Das. He was sad that "Indian PM Narendra Modi has announced the repeal of three controversial farm laws after a year of protests," BBC. "Farm unions are seeing this as a huge victory. But experts say the upcoming state elections in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh - both have huge base of farmers - may have forced the decision." The problem is that every year there are elections in different states so India is permanently in election mode. "A good compromise....would be to hold elections on two fixed dates, every five years at the Centre and two and a half years in states." Holding elections in all states together will make it a national election and the party in power at the center will be able to leverage its control of national resources to gain an unfair advantage. Earlier this year the PM's party, the BJP, was trounced in assembly elections in West Bengal, although the party increased its seats from 3 to 77, wikipedia. Despite rising coronavirus infections "Modi addressed more than two dozen rallies in the state," HT, but had to cancel the last 4 rallies because of the virus. In parliamentary elections in 2019 the BJP increased its share of seats from 2 to 18 while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) of Mamata Banerjee came down from 34 to 22, a loss of 12 seats, wikipedia. But an independent assembly election concentrated minds on local issues. "The lower middle-class-man who spent Rs 92/litre on petrol to take his bike to the Home Minister's rally and braved the April sun, came back disappointed. There was no word about his plight. All he heard was the promise of statues and cries of Jai Shri Ram spoken in a tongue that's not his own," India Today. In Tamil Nadu assembly elections the BJP fought as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), wikipedia, which lost to the DMK alliance, in which the DMK won 125 seats and the Congress won 18, Firstpost. Modi should get states ruled by his party, to adopt the new laws, thinks Das. "Once farmers of Punjab and Haryana would see farmers' income rising in the neighbouring states they would come around." They can see already. Bihar gave up MSP in 2006 and here "Farmers cannot bargain. The produce is neither graded nor auctioned as is the practice in well-functioning markets in other states," wrote Sayantan Bera. Farmers from Bihar go to Punjab to work as farm laborers. "It's a sad day when democracy defeats economic sanity," rues Das. If so, why don't economists in India study incomes and wealth of farmers who sell to government at a Minimum Support Price (MSP) and of those who don't. "A 2016 Niti Aayog report states that 100% of farmers in Punjab sell their crops at MSP," DNA. A study showed farmers in Punjab get 30% more for their produce than those in Bihar or Odisha, HT. Economics supports protesting farmers. Economics did not lose to democracy. Politics lost.  

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