Friday, December 24, 2021

Markets are linked to the rupee, and the rupee to the economy.

"Arguably the bull market of 2021 is the same one that started in 2009, with one big change. Retail investors, who sat on the sidelines for so many years, rushed in after the pandemic induced flash crash last year and have been buying every dip with mounting enthusiasm," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "All told, US investors alone have poured more than $1 trillion into equities worldwide in 2021, three times the previous record and more than the prior 20 years combined." "Retail investors are just as amped up in India, one of the hottest stock markets in the world this year." In India, "The total number of retail investors increased by an astonishing 14.2 million in FY21", so that "The National Stock Exchange (NSE) alone saw retail investors share grow from 33% in 2016 to 45% in 2021," wrote Dhiraj Relli. Over 105 million Indians have invested in cryptocurrencies. "Indians' investment in cryptocurrencies has increased to over Rs 75,000 crore (Rs 750 billion) or $10 billion from $923 million in April last year with market at an all-time high, according to crypto research and intelligence business CREBACO," TN. "Sebi data show that individuals with income up to Rs 5 lakh (Rs 500,000) account for 1.3 crore investor accounts, or 70.01% of individual investors across the country, and 28.54% of the total assets under management (AUM) of the mutual fund industry," TIE. As a result, "The benchmark Sensex jumped from 29,648 in March 2020 to a high of over 62,000 in October 2021." That is just the secondary market. "Fundraising through initial public offerings (IPOs) touched a record high in the year 2021. According to data, 63 companies have floated an initial share sale this year, raising Rs 1.19 lakh crore (Rs 1.19 trillion) from public investors," ET. Prices of shares in many of these companies fell below issue price on listing and even those that gained have settled at lower levels, moneycontrol. "The currency (rupee) declined 1.9% this quarter as global funds pulled $4.2 billion of capital out of the country's stock market, the most among regional markets where data is available," ET. "Foreigners sold Indian stock as Goldman Sach's Group Inc and Nomura Holdings Inc recently lowered their outlook for equities, citing lofty valuations." "The total value of investments by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in India crossed the Rs 50-lakh-crore (Rs 50 trillion) mark as of September this year," because of the recent rally in the stock market and investment in 1,370 companies, which is an all-time high, TOI. "The Indian rupee is set for a more than 4% drop this year, its fourth straight annual loss, with losses accelerating towards the end of the year as the country's red-hot equity markets start to cool and trade deficit balloons," ET. But things could get really awkward if the US Federal Reserve increases interest rate as it promised. That would result in foreign funds selling out of Indian equities and bonds, CNBC, resulting in a sharp drop in the rupee, which would raise prices by increasing cost of imports, especially oil. Once the RBI starts raising rates to try and control inflation, share prices will fall even more, and the rupee with it. Why allow Americans to control our economy? 

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