Monday, December 20, 2021

We know we are exceptional, but so does Erdogan.

"Turkish laborer Hasan Sarikaya says he has no job, no money and no hope for a better future while President Tayyip Erdogan - the leader he supported for years - remains in power," Reuters. "Other Konya residents who spoke to Reuters, including industrial workers, farmers and students, echoed Sarikaya's lament over rising prices and fewer jobs," "Turkey's currency crisis accelerated...as the lira plunged 8%, gripped by fears of an inflationary spiral brought on by President Tayyip Erdogan's unorthodox plan to slash interest rates in the face of soaring prices," Reuters. "The devalued lira is driving prices higher, making imports, fuel and everyday goods more expensive in Turkey, which relies on imported raw materiel," TIE. "The independent Inflation Research Group, made up of academics and former government officials, puts the inflation at a stunning 58%." Just as a weakening currency increases prices and inflation, so does inflation cause a fall in the value of the currency, which creates a cycle. "Hyperinflation is when the prices of goods and services rise more than 50% per month," The Balance. Consumers buy and hoard goods to avoid higher prices later, leading shortages and even higher prices. After staying below 2% till March 2021, inflation in the US has been rising steadily since March to a height of 6.81% in November 2021, YCharts. "The return of higher and less stable inflation across major economies would cause a spike in exchange rate volatility, and ultimately the depreciation of currencies in countries experiencing the highest inflation prints, according to Jonas Goltermann, senior market economist at Capital Economics," CNBC. Looking forward to 2022, Rajrishi Singhal wrote, "In the balance of risks that could come knocking on India's doors in 2022, economic risks -- both domestic and geo-economic -- seem to top the list. And many of these risks seem to converge to a single point: inflationary pressures." Although high, retail inflation has stayed between 4-6% but wholesale price inflation has risen to 14.23% in November, ET. The danger is that higher input costs will be passed onto retail prices. Central banks in western economies have started tightening. The Bank of England hiked interest rate from a historic low of 0.1% to 0.25%, CNBC. It is not much but it shows the bank's intention. The US Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases in March 2022, setting the stage for at least three rate hikes next year, Reuters. "Rising US interest rates would result in US financial markets being a more attractive investment option, leading to net foreign investment outflows from India and rupee depreciation," wrote Jagadish Shettigar & Pooja Misra. "A weakened rupee would result in increased landed price of crude oil leading to higher supply side inflation." The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a much weaker rupee by 2026-27. "From 70.9 in 2020-21, the Fund sees the rupee depreciating to 89.4 against the US dollar by 2026-27. In April, the implied exchange rate forecast for 2026-27 was 85.8," wrote an angry Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. Because of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "Faced with a choice between rising prices and growth, RBI and the MPC opted for the latter, ignoring warning signals," wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "Never mind that India cannot hope to be an outlier in a world where inflation is the overriding concern. And most important, forgetting that inflation is a regressive tax. The unkindest cut of all." We Indians may believe we are exceptional but, as we found in April this year, we fall harder, Scroll. Are the government and RBI aware?      

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