Sunday, December 12, 2021

We are not as demanding as Americans.

"Prices for US consumers jumped 6.8% in November compared with a year earlier as surging costs for food, energy, housing and other items left Americans enduring their highest annual inflation since 1982," ET. "Fueling the inflation has been a mix of factors resulting from the swift rebound in pandemic recession: A flood of government stimulus, ultra-low rates engineered by the Fed and supply shortages at factories in the US and abroad." "Employers struggling with worker shortages, have also been raising pay, and many of them have boosted prices to offset their higher labor costs, thereby adding to inflation." "The cost of shipping a 40-foot container (FEU) unit has eased some 15% from record highs above $11,000 touched in September, according to the Freightos FBX index. But before the pandemic, the same container cost just $1,300," ET. "A United Nations report said last month that high freight rates were threatening the global recovery, suggesting they could boost global import prices by 11% and consumer prices by 1.5% between now and 2023." "A flood of government spending - including President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, with its $1,400 checks to most households in March - overstimulated the economy, Prof Jason Furman said. Biden has acknowledged that inflation hurts Americans, "But he said his $1 trillion infrastructure package, including spending on roads, bridges and ports, will help ease supply bottlenecks and therefore inflationary pressures." He did not say who will drive the trucks on wider roads. "The American Trucking Associations (ATA) estimates that the US is short 80,000 truckers - an all time high for the industry. And if nothing changes, the shortfall could reach 160,000 over the next decade," BBC. "Despite the incentives, not enough people want to become truckers." The turnover rate is 90% in large firms. "Drivers burnout because the job is stressful and comes with big personal sacrifices - such as long periods away from the family." "A line of more than 80 container ships waiting to dock at ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, was cut in half in late November -- or so it seemed. Turns out the vessels disappearing from the queue were merely hiding from it, loitering in the Pacific out of reach of the official count," ET. "The actual bottlenecks at midweek stood at 96 ships." The US is far away but all this is having an effect on India as well. "India's merchandise exports rose to $29.88 billion for the month from $23.62 billion in the same period last year, while imports rose to $53.15 billion in November from $33.81 billion last year," ET. Consequently, trade deficit was a record $23.27 billion. "Trade deficit between India and China stood at USD 30.07 billion during April-September 2021," ET, signifying a transfer of our money to our greatest enemy. Luckily, consumer demand in India, as measured by growth in the private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), has dropped from 8.2% in financial year 2005 (FY05) to 3.2% from FY17 to FY22, Udit Misra. Or else, the trade deficit would have soared. Good thing we can't spend as much as Americans.        

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