Wednesday, December 01, 2021

Repeating the same formula is unlikely to give a different result.

"The highlights of the latest GDP numbers are the September GDP number exceeding the pre-pandemic (September 2019) value and an impressive sequential recovery -- GDP growth in quarter-on-quarter was 10.4% in September 2021 -- from the disruption cause by the second wave of Covid-19," wrote Roshan Kishore. "India's GDP grew by 8.4% in the second quarter of the current fiscal (July-September) as economic activity inched towards normalcy after the second virus wave," ET. "The GVA grew by an impressive 8.5% in the second quarter. Nominal GDP grew at 17.5 percent." "The biggest cause of alarm in the latest GDP numbers is the fact that Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE), which has a share of more than 50% in overall GDP, is still below pre-pandemic levels." Which means that people are spending less than they were before Covid struck. And if consumer demand is weak then the private sector will not invest in new capacity. "Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman...said there are clear signs of an uptick in the economy and the industry should now start taking risks and invest in capacity creation that will help cut reliance on imports," BS. To protect company bosses, known as promoters, the government changed the (IBC) 2016 act (wikipedia) through an Ordinance. "The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) started off with an extremely promoter-averse, creditor-friendly approach. It is now in the midst of a crisis, transitioning to embrace -- although tentatively -- the once vilified promoter," wrote Ishan Bakshi. This maybe an invitation for businesses to take on loans which they may not be able to repay, leading to non-performing assets (NPAs) in Indian banks. "A lot of bad loans currently classified as NPAs originated in the mid-2000s, at a time when the economy was booming and business outlook was very positive. Large corporations were granted loans for projects based on extrapolation of their recent growth and performance. With loans being more easily available than before, corporations grew highly leveraged," PRS. The Gross NPAs of 23 banks -- 9 public sector banks (PSBs) and 14 private sector banks (PvBs) -- fell to 6.97% at the end of September 2021, compared to 7.32% at June-end 2021 and 7.36% at September-end 2020, Hindu. How is the economy growing? Because of increase in government spending. "Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) which measures the investment component of GDP, has shown an increase despite no recovery in PFCE." "In nominal terms, the central government's capital spending between April and October stood at Rs 2.53 trillion, which is higher than the 2020-21 (Rs 1.97 trillion) and 2019-20 (Rs 2.01 trillion) values for the same period." And yet, "The government's fiscal deficit has worked out to be Rs 5.47 lakh crore (Rs 5.47 trillion) or 36.3% of the budget estimates at the end of October 2021," ET. The government is spending without borrowing. Where is the money coming from? From ferocious taxes. "The central government's mop-up from excise duty levied on petrol and diesel more than doubled to rs 3.72 lakh crore (Rs 3.72 trillion) in the pandemic year 2020-21," TOI. "Gross GST revenue collected in November came in at Rs 1,31,526 crore," ET, the second highest ever. If we repeat the same formula won't we have the same result?      

No comments: