The Ides of March is not far away.

Time for astrologers and soothsayers. "We project 2022-23 growth to stay firm at 7% year-on-year after an estimated 9.5% in 2021-22, which is among the fastest in our Asia-10 universe," wrote Radhika Rao. She expects, "A mix of catalysts are likely to to spur a multi-year capex push," first by the public and then by the private sector, led by the National Infrastructure Pipeline, investment in renewable energy because, "India has committed to meet 50% of its energy requirements from renewable energy by 2030," and "a boost to high-value manufacturing exports in sectors such as machinery and electronics". Dangers are lurking in 2022, wrote Rajrishi Singhal. Russia is building up its troops at its border with Ukraine and wants a guarantee that Ukraine will never join Nato, BBC.  "Are Russian forces getting ready for war in Ukraine? That is certainly the fear among Western leaders and in Ukraine." "When Russian president Vladimir Putin seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, his approval ratings were at record lows and the world was watching the Sochi Olympics. When he went to war with Georgia in 2008, the world was consumed by the Beijing Olympics," Quartz. The XXIV Olympic Winter Games are scheduled to be held in Beijing from 4 to 20 February 2022 in Beijing, wikipedia. "The White House said no official delegation would be sent to the Games because of concerns about China's human rights record," BBC. US-China tension, the Taliban in Afghanistan and "Inflation concerns are forcing central banks in advanced economies to start retreating from their accommodative policies", will all have effect on our economy, thinks Singhal. 2022 is going to be very uncertain, according to Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. "The European Central Bank has gone in for unprecedented monetary accommodation, which has pushed the inflation rate in Germany to over 5%, the highest since 1992." On 15 December the US Federal Reserve said that it will end its bond buying program by March 2022 and hinted it may increase interest rate three times next year, Reuters. US rate hikes could propel other central banks to take similar measures, which could hurt Indian market sentiments," CNBC. "India is relatively better off" and the Reserve Bank (RBI) was "right to have left its monetary policy in accommodative mode", wrote Nageswaran. "Almost Rs 6-8 trillion of surplus liquidity resides in RBI's reverse repo window (both overnight and short term variable rate reverse repo of V3R," wrote Madan Sabnavis. This is excess liquidity that banks have no use for. This seems to be a 'liquidity trap' which is a situation when expansionary monetary policy (increase in money supply) does not increase the interest rate, income and hence does not stimulate economic growth," ET. Not so, said the RBI. "The aggregate demand in the economy is improving and overall monetary and credit conditions are conducive for a durable recovery to take root, while the quality of government expenditure has seen an improvement in the second half, said the RBI," BS. Really? We will see in March what the US Fed does. The 'Ides of March', as the soothsayer warned.