Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Is India so different from the rest of the world?

In the US, "Annual inflation rose to 6.8% from 6.2%, a level not seen since 1982 in the midst of the Paul Volcker era at the central bank," wrote Mohamed a El-Erian. Core inflation has risen to 4.9% from 4.6%. Consumer inflation in the US hit double digits in the 1973 and then again in 1979 and continued to 1982, after which it began to cool, US Inflation Calculator. US oil production peaked by 1970, resulting in shortages and a spike in energy prices, and in 1979, the Iranian revolution resulted in a sudden drop in Iran's oil exports, again causing a jump in the price of oil and inflation, wikipedia. Wholesale prices, as measured by the producer price index (PPI), rose by a record 9.6% over the previous 12 months, CNBC. Core PPI rose at 6.9%. "Fed officials for months had been insisting that inflation was 'transitory' and closely tied to Covid pandemic-related factors that eventually would fade." "First, the question is not whether some of the more powerful drivers of inflation will lose their potency; they certainly will," wrote El-Erian. The supply chain crisis that is causing shortages will gradually resolve as, "On the busy Shanghai-to-Los Angeles route, the spot rate for a 40-foot container sank 3.8%...to $9,698, according to the Drewry World Container Index," ET. "Second, the question is not whether this broader inflation dynamic will eventually reverse; they certainly will." The danger is. "As inflation rises higher and more durable than it would have been otherwise, the danger increases not just of an unnecessary economic slowdown but also an outright recession." "The new coronavirus variant Omicron is spreading at an unprecedented rate, the WHO said Tuesday, urging countries to act swiftly to rein in transmissions and protect their health systems," TOI. This fear and uncertainty will keep central banks in easing mode, wrote Prof V Anantha Nageswaran. "The European Central Bank has gone for unprecedented monetary accommodation, which has pushed the inflation in Germany to over 5%, the highest since 1992." In the US, "The real Federal Funds rate has not been this low in the 67 years of data that is available in the FRED database." In China, party inspectors lectured central bank officials about obeying Party orders. Europe, the US and China are wrong but, "India looks relatively better off," as "The fiscal policy is not loose and the current account deficit is low". Earlier, Prof Nageswaran wrote that Omicron would be good for the Reserve Bank (RBI) to continue with its loose monetary policy as global growth and oil prices would cool down. He predicted India's GDP to grow at 9-10% and inflation to remain at around 5-5.5%. Economist Mythili Bhusnurmath is mystified by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI's decision to stimulate growth by voting 5:1 to keep interest rate at 4% despite high inflation (ET). While the "BRIC economies like Brazil, Russia and South Africa (the latter for the first time in three years and with Omicron raging), have done a course correction, " Faced with a choice between rising prices and growth, the RBI and the MPC opted for the latter, ignoring warning signals," she wrote. The RBI is probably just obeying orders. But what is Prof Nageswran afraid of?         

No comments: