Saturday, December 04, 2021

Figures are in the eye of the beholder.

"The first phase of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) was conducted in 2019-20 and its findings were released in December 2020," PRS. Findings of 17 states and 5 union territories were released. The good news was that total fertility rate in most states, except in Bihar (3.0) and Meghalaya (2.9), had declined below the replacement level of 2.1, use of contraceptives had increased, the ratio of female to male ratio at birth had improved and the infant mortality rate had dropped. The bad news was that stunting or chronic malnutrition (i.e. low height with respect to age) had increased in 11 of 17 states and the proportion of severely wasted children had increased in 13 of 17 states, "Leaving aside two or three countries like Niger and Yemen, India has the highest proportion of underweight children in the world: a full 36 percent according to the NHFS-4," wrote Prof Jean Dreze. The NFHS-5 revealed that "Child nutrition indicators have not improved between 2015-16 and 2019-20." Economist Surjit S Bhalla found exactly the opposite from the same figures. "The data show that there has been considerable improvement in many of these 131 indicators of social welfare; and that in very few (you can count such instances on the fingers of one hand) there has been stagnation rather than a decline." An ardent supporter of the Prime Minister, Bhalla was incensed that "Some authors are explicit, others indulge in nudge-nudge, wink-wink -- these four years were also the first four years of the changing political order in India -- the beginning of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister." "Not one of the authors looked at the data on wasting (weight for height)," he complained. In his rebuttal Dreze wrote, "I ignored wasting because it is a tricky indicator of child nutrition: It has the odd effect of classifying stunted children as well-nourished if they have adequate weight for height." Improvements in sanitation and literacy do not compensate for child malnutrition. Phase-2 of NFHS-5 data for the 14 remaining states and union territories was released recently. Taking both phases together, "According to the findings, child nutrition indicators showed a slight improvement at all-India level as stunting declined from 38 percent to 36 percent, wasting from 21 percent to 19 percent and underweight from 36 from 32 percent," BS. Analysing the recent data released by NHFS-5 along with Niti Aayog's study on developing a multi-dimensional index on poverty (MPI), Bhalla found, "A remarkable convergence in living standards, a convergence possibly unparalleled in Indian history and in the space of just five years. The first year of the comparison 2015-16 can be taken to be a reasonable proxy for the beginning of the Modi model of development -- a model which can be described as targeted purposeful development." Unfortunately for Bhalla, "Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Meghalaya have emerged as the poorest states in India, with over 50% of the population in Bihar classified as multidimensionally poor, as per Niti Aayog's Multidimensional Poverty Index," ET. The figure for Kerala is 0.71%. Bhalla insists that shows convergence. And Bhalla is an eminent economist.      

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