Saturday, December 25, 2021

The inequality of financial inclusion.

"The country's monetary policy is, by design, financially inclusive and this strategy will result in policy effectiveness and welfare maximization going ahead, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Michael D Patra said," ET. The RBI's financial inclusion index (FI-index) rose from 49.9 in March 2019 to 53.1 in March 2020 and to 53.9 in March 2021. RBI's goal is 100%. "This, he said, is achieved by enabling people to draw down financial savings in difficult times for everyday needs." What happens when savings finish? The RBI has kept interest rate at 4% since May 2020 even while projecting consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 5.3%, ET. "A real interest rate is an interest rate that has been adjusted to remove the effects of inflation to reflect the real cost of funds to the borrower and the real yield to the lender or to an investor," Investopedia. "Real interest rates have turned negative in India (which means the interest rate is lower than inflation), as has happened in the US and Europe some years back. This has created problem for savers, especially senior citizens, many of whom kept most of their money safely with banks," Moneylife. "Economists call this financial repression." Financial repression are methods for governments to increase tax income and domestically-held debt. This is done by keeping interest rate levels below that of inflation, effectively taxing the country's savers," Forbes. "Actual GTR (gross tax revenue) collections in FY22 (financial year 2021-22) is Rs 13.64 lakh crore (Rs 13.64 trillion), compared to Rs 8.76 lakh crore in in FY21 and Rs 10.52 lakh crore in FY 20 in the same period," FE. "With net direct tax collection till October closing in on Rs 6 lakh crore and average monthly GST mop-up likely around Rs 1.15 lakh crore this fiscal," TOI, GTR will be far higher than budget estimates. Highly successful financial repression. No wonder, "As per the 'World Inequality report 2022', India is among the most unequal countries in the world," where the top 10% and the top 1% "hold 57% and 22% of the total national income respectively while the bottom 50% share has gone down to 13%", ET. While the wealth of Gautam Adani and family has grown at Rs 10.02 billion per day, from Rs 1.402 trillion to Rs 5.059 trillion, in the last one year, ET, wealth of many business families has grown by 3-4 times in the last year, according to the IIFL Wealth Hurun India Rich List, ET. "Income inequality in India is as high as it was under British colonial rule," emphasized Abhishek Jha. India has a tradition of not listening to economists and making huge mistakes, wrote Ashok V Desai. The IMF asked the government to increase tax collections by 1.5-3% pf GDP, which it will probably surpass. "At least the IMF did not encourage the Center to continue spending money printed by RBI or generated by bank credit. Not that the government needed encouragement; it is likely to carry on." "So, central banks do care about inequality," said Patra. Do they, by Jove? By calling it financial inclusion?

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