Tuesday, February 15, 2011

A report by the Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund says that the IMF failed to foresee the crash of 2008 even while providing " warnings about the risks and vulnerabilities associated with the impending crisis...." ( Hindustan Times, 12.02. 2011 ). The report was congratulatory about India which had managed to avoid the crisis because of " its conservative banking sector and gradual approach to liberalising its capital account." The IMF also failed to predict the Asian financial crisis of 1997, Brazil and Russia in 1998, Argentina in 2001 and Iceland and Ireland in 2008. So what should we make of its optimism regarding India? Do we assume that the Bank has learnt from its earlier boo boos and hence can be trusted or is its cheerful outlook regarding India's continued growth prospects merely another one of its howlers. True India will grow at 8.5% this fiscal but inflation is at 8.4% and the Reserve Bank's very timid monetary policy is hopelessly behind the curve. Industrial growth is stuttering and capital expenditure is falling. Instead of trickle down of prosperity we have corruption trickling down to every level. The sums involved are astronomical. Black money has pushed up property prices to fantasy land and unless this falls by at least 70% there is no hope of controlling inflation. Our share market has doubled since 2008 without any obvious reason. Price earnings ratio of Infosys is 30.69 compared to IBM which is 14.15. The market regulator SEBI is investigating why the market fell last week but not why it has risen more than any other market in the world. Everything is possible in the land of flimflams.

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