Tunisia, then Egypt, is it Bahrain's turn for the government to fall? I believe that is impossible. Bahrain is fairly wealthy and, probably, the most liberal Arab country in the gulf. Alcohol is sold openly though only for non muslim foreigners. Women are well educated and few wear the veil. Unemployment is low. Bahrain is the weekend getaway for Saudis who drive over for drink and fun. However 80% of the population is Shia ruled by 20% Sunnis. As far as Sunnis are concerned Shias are apostates and, therefore, disposable. The US Fifth fleet is based in Bahrain right across a strip water from Iran. What makes Bahrain indispensable for the western world is the fact that the island is linked to the south east of Saudi Arabia by the King Fahd causeway. This area, from Dhahran to Abqaiq, is where almost all the oil of Saudi Arabia lies. Saudi Arabia is 90% Sunni with a 10% Shia population who are mostly concentrated in this eastern region of the country. In the north Saudi Arabia has a long land border with the south of Iraq which is all Shia and make up 60% of Iraqi population. After the criminally stupid invasion of Iraq by George W. the government of Iraq is controlled by Shias many of whom sheltered in Iran during Saddam Hussein's brutal crackdown. Jordan in the north east is also boiling with Muslim Brotherhood poised for power. If the Bahrain government falls to Shia control Saudi Arabia will be surrounded by hostile governments friendly to Iran. The western countries, especially the US, can never allow that to happen. So there will be no talk of " orderly transition." Prepare for nauseating double talk instead.