Extremely interesting to speculate on what is going to happen in Egypt. Pundits are hoping that Egypt will end up like Turkey, stable with a growing economy, predominantly secular and with good social programs. However Turkey is not as secular as its constitution demands. The present government has very cleverly embarked on creeping islamisation with repeal of ban on head scarves for women, arrest of scores of retired army officers for allegedly plotting a coup, change of the Constitutional Court and an attack on Israel in the form of a peace flotilla for Gaza. If Egypt were to adopt this model the Muslim Brotherhood would gradually increase its power until it achieves an Islamic state. The other alternative is Pakistan where the powerful army maintains its privileges, the civilian government is a mishmash of various parties including a large number from the Muslim Brotherhood and there are Islamic fundamentalists agitating for an Islamic state. Egypt does not have a Waziristan with high mountains dotted with caves providing hiding places for militants but it has a large and exploding poor illiterate population ready to offer refuge for food and money. Either alternative will be an existential threat for Israel which has been reliant on a friendly Egypt to the west and a friendly Jordan to the east. To compound Israel's problems Jordan, whose population is mainly of Palestinian origin, could also fall leaving the Jewish state surrounded. Iran remains the joker in the pack of Tarot cards. Whether it be between Muslims on one side against Jews and Christians on the other or Sunnis and Jews against Shias the world should prepare for upheavals.