Sunday, February 20, 2011

At the ongoing G20 finance ministers get together China has succeeded in watering down a resolution on financial imbalances in the world. Naturally, since China is the biggest currency manipulator in the world keeping its currency, the yuan, artificially devalued against major currencies to increase exports.At the same time China has increased the cash reserve ratio for its banks to decrease lending and has increased interest rates to cool inflation. China may be helped in its quest by rising commodity prices which, at some point, will make it impossible to continue growing. The US is desperate to stimulate growth to reduce unemployment which is sure to be a millstone for Obama in next year's presidential elections. This will increase imports and increase fiscal deficit which the government is desperately trying to reduce. So stimulate the economy to increase employment while cutting public sector employees to reduce deficit. India does not want any cap on capital inflows even if the Sensex and the property market are on LSD while desperately trying to reduce inflation. One measure has been to create a new indicator called the Consumer Price Index which miraculously reduced inflation to 6% from 8.2% in one fell swoop. Meanwhile the moribund Doha round of trade talks have again been mentioned even as the Korea has just concluded a free trade agreement with the EU as it had done with the US earlier while India and Japan have agreed to increase trade. Seems that the larger economies have agreed that the WTO is dead and the poorer countries may die with it. Truth is no one has any clue or control over what is happening. Great.

















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