Friday, October 15, 2021

They surely do hard work in Harvard.

"A few years back when India's GDP was ranging 8-9%, former Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the great thing about India is we are a growth hungry country, we are ambitious," Economic Times (ET). He said that "we are dreaming of double-digit growth". The present Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said at Harvard Kennedy School this week, "As regards the growth of India, we are looking at near close to double digit growth this year and this would be the highest in the world." Mukherjee was finance minister from January 2009 to July 2012, wikipedia. "Between 2008 and 2013, inflation averaged 10.1% per annum due the rising global oil and metal prices, wrote Muthukumar K. Average consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 10.83% in 2009, 12.11% in 2010, 8.87% in 2011 and 9.30% in 2012, inflation.eu, during Mukherjee's tenure as finance minsiter. "The economy is expected to grow at 7.5-8.5 percent -- as projected by rating agencies -- in the next financial year, and the growth would sustain at this range for the next decade, she said," Business Standard. "India has clocked record exports in the first half of FY22 at $197.89 billion and is closer than ever to achieve the $400 billion annual exports milestone by the end of the year. However, the soaring global commodity prices including key inputs such as oil, chemical, metals, plastic and cotton, are largely responsible for this rise," ET. "India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $22.59 billion in September, the highest in at least about 14 years. official data showed." ET. Exporters say that "Liquidity crunch, high manufacturing cost squeeze profits," and "Energy crisis, high coal imports may worsen commodity inflation, hit exports." "Media reports suggest that India is on the cusp of a multi-year capex cycle reminiscent of the 2003-12 years," wrote Mahesh Vyas, CEO of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). But, "New investment proposals per quarter averaged Rs 6 trillion in 2014-15 and 2015-16. This fell to Rs 4.8 trillion in 2016-17 and then to Rs 4 trillion in 2017-18." New investment proposals fell 55% to Rs 1.9 trillion in the year of the pandemic and it has been Rs 1.8 trillion in the two quarters of 2021-22. "Data released by IHS Markit....showed purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services stood at 55.2 in September, falling from August's 18 month high of 56.7," Hindustan Times (HT). The Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) of the Reserve Bank of India showed that "The Current Situation Index (CSI) was at 57.7." These numbers highlight the underlying, perhaps entrenched weakness, on the demand front in the Indian, or urban Indian economy," Roshan Kishore. But, investors in markets are not diffident at all. "The bull run in the stock markets is not just about the formal part of the economy -- whose shares are listed in such markets -- doing better." Sitharaman may say what she likes, but Harvard economists study every detail. They work hard.       

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