Wednesday, October 13, 2021

They have problems. We have none.

In the US, "Another surge in consumer prices in September sent inflation to 5.4% from a year ago, matching the highest such rate since 2008 as tangled global supply lines continue to create havoc," Economic Times (ET). "Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core inflation was 0.2% in September and 4% compared with a year ago." "India's retail inflation fell to a five-month low of 4.35% in September from 5.3% in August as food prices softened, official data released Tuesday showed," ET. Food and beverages contribute 45.86% to our consumer price index (CPI) basket, number basket. Cereals and products contribute 9.67% and vegetables contribute 6.04%, while health contributes 5.89% and education 4.46%. In the US, "The unexpected burst of inflation this year reflects sharply higher prices for food and energy, but also new and used cars, hotel rooms, clothing, and furniture, among other goods and services." Food is just 14% of the CPI basket in the US, while housing is 33% and commodities, including medication and autos, contribute 21%, The Balance. The CPI baskets of the US and India reflect the wealth of their citizens. India's per capita income was $1,947.417, lower than that of Bangladesh at $2,227, newindiaexpress, while per capita income in the US is $68,309, according to the IMF, wikipedia. Hence, Indians spend more on items of survival, like food, while Americans spend on more energy, cars and services. "Like toy bricks hurled from the heavens, nearly 80,000 shipping containers are stacked is various configurations at the port of Savannah -- 50% more than usual," ET. "As major ports contend with a staggering pileup of cargo, what seemed like a temporary phenomenon -- a traffic jam that would eventually dissipate -- is increasingly viewed as a new reality that could require a substantial refashioning of the world's shipping infrastructure." "China's Yantian port in Shenzhen suspended pick-up and drop-off of containers as tropical cyclone Kompasu approached the nation's southern coastline. The number of ships waiting outside the port rose to 67, the most since Aug 26, according to shipping data compiled by Bloomberg," ET. "The bad news is that the world's supply chain problems are more persistent and more severe than previously realized. The worse news is that there is no single reason why, and therefore no straightforward fix. And the even worse news is that no one really knows when the situation will improve," ET. "A typical market response might be to produce more containers (it's harder, and slower, to increase the number of ships and ports). But that would require precisely the trade and transport networks that are currently malfunctioning." "One of the biggest US ports will start operating 24 hours a day to try to clear long queues of cargo ships stuck waiting outside," BBC. The port of Los Angeles in California will handle more goods at night after a similar move by nearby Long Beach port." No problems for Indian companies. "The big story about this market really lies in earnings and in a Covid year, if Nifty earning was up 20% and this year consensus earnings for Nifty are likely to be in the range of 27-28%, our bet is that Nifty earnings will surprise on the upside not just for this year but for next three years," said CEO Alchemy Capital Management Hiren Ved. They need cars so they have problems. We need food, which we grow, so we have no problems. We win.    

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