Saturday, October 16, 2021

Lead us not into temptation.

"The benchmark BSE Sensex reached the 61,000-mark milestone for the first time while the Nifty50 index surpassed 18,300 today, Business Standard. "An across the board rally lifted the 30-share pack 569 points or 0.94 percent on the bourses, helping the index to settle at 61,306 level. The Nifty50, meanwhile shut shop at 18,336 levels, up 174 points or 0.96 percent." "My view is that surely we will be around 100,000. The question is whether that number is three years away or is it five years away. Otherwise, 100,000 looks fairly certain," said Nilesh Shah in an interview. "I do not believe that this market is going to fall because of valuations. I believe that if at all there is a correction it is going to be for some of the other reasons which could be inflation or interest rates going up or liquidity tightening." "I believe that we are at the start of this round of bull market and this is a bull market which is going to last for several years," said Shah. "We are going to see solid business momentum over the next several years which will continue to translate into even a much more vibrant and stronger bull market." While our stock market indices are reaching for the skies we are excelling in another index as well. "India has slipped to 101st position in the Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2021 of 116 countries, from its 2020 position of 94th and is behind its neighbors Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal," Economic Times (ET). "Reacting sharply to the Global  Hunger Report 2021, the Women and Child Ministry said that it is 'shocking' that it has lowered the rank of India on the basis of FAO estimate on proportion of undernourished population which is found to be 'devoid of ground reality and facts, and suffers from serious methodological issues'," ET. India is a member of the FAO which is the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, wikipedia. But, there is an Indian report as well. "The nutritional level among children in India worsened over the last five years, according to health data. Eighteen of the 22 states and Union Territories (UTs) recorded a rise in the percentage of children under five years of age who are stunted, wasted and underweight compared with 2015-16, reversing decades of gains, showed the latest National Family Health Survey," The Wire. This was even before Covid-19 decimated the country. "Gauging who can afford the five assets of a car, an air-conditioner at home, a desktop or laptop computer, a refrigerator, and a television set, has been seen as an important indicator of economic well-being in a fast-growing, aspirational economy," Indian Express (TIE). "An analysis of asset ownership data at the household level collected by Lokniti-CSDS during its National Election Study 2019 indicates that no more than 3% of Indian households -- that is, 1 in every 33 -- own all of these five assets at the same time." "The number of investor accounts with Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL) has more than doubled from 2.12 crore (21.2 million) in March 2020 to 4.64 crore (46.4 million) in September 2021. In fact, more than half of the additional 2.52 crore accounts -- 1.3 crore -- have come in the last six months between April and September 2021," TIE. These people are entering at the top and will be severely hurt if and when markets correct. A Massacre of the Innocents of modern times. They should be warned, not tempted.

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