Is it safe to ignore an iceberg?

"After a two-day pause, fuel prices are up again on Wednesday (today). In Delhi, petrol and diesel rates were up by 35 paise to cost Rs 107.94 and Rs 96.67 per litre, according to Indian Oil Corporation." ET. In Mumbai they are higher still. According to the list of companies controlled by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas the entire chain of acquisition of crude oil, its refining and sale to retail customers is controlled by the government. This has to be the most pernicious example of monopoly extortion of consumers. First the government takes a huge chunk through excise duty on oil import, Deccan Herald, and then rakes in windfall dividends from its oil companies through higher retail prices, HT. Since most goods and services need fuel for functioning this should cause prices to rise and Indians are known to be sensitive to prices. "One of the biggest factors that led to the downfall (in 2014 general election) of Manmohan Singh's  government was inflation," Quartz India. "In March, 2016, the Modi government amended the Reserve Bank of India Act to put in place inflation targeting regime for the central bank to follow. The RBI was to steer a monetary policy (which mainly involves controlling money supply via levers such as loan interest rates) that ensured that inflation was limited to 4% with a 2 percentage point band." But, the RBI has kept interest rates unchanged at 4% since May 2020, HT. "The RBI has expanded the list of tools in its armoury to influence interest rates, the exchange rate, liquidity in general and liquidity targeted at specific segments of end-borrowers to be mediated by different financial intermediaries and to prevent the differential between short- and medium-term rates from widening too much," ET. All this blather means that it doesn't give a toss about inflation. Why? The present Governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das is an ex-IAS officer, wikipedia, and would be loyal to the government. So why the indifference? Because, the rise in prices is due to a jump in commodity prices because of an acceleration in economic growth following relaxation in restrictions induced by the Covid pandemic, ET. "The dramatic surge in demand clogged the system for transporting goods to the factories that needed them. At the same time, finished products -- many of them made in China -- piled up in warehouses and ports throughout Asia because of a profound shortage of shipping containers, the standard-size steel boxes that carry goods on enormous vessels," ET. And, fingers crossed, there will a correction in prices of commodities soon. Unfortunately, oil prices are expected to remain high. "Goldman Sachs, for example, sees Brent hitting $90 a barrel at the end of this year," oilprice.com. "The investment bank also sees sustained higher oil prices in the coming years." The RBI could be gambling on base effect. Since inflation is calculated on last year's prices, if prices soar this year but stay at the same elevated level in 2022 the RBI can claim credit for 0% inflation rate. However, higher prices will lead to higher wage demands. Average salary hike is expected to be 9.4% next year, up form 8.8% in 2021 TOI. Wage costs will be passed on to consumers. Finally, the US Federal Reserve is reluctant to raise interest in the US, CNBC, despite an inflation rate of 5.39% in September, ycharts.com. But, if the Fed is forced to raise rate early the rupee will dive and cost of imports will jump. Markets will tank and the economy will go into a tailspin. Inflation is like an iceberg, 90% of which is unseen, wikipedia. Remember the Titanic?