25 basis points of doubt.

"Industry chamber PHDCCI on Sunday said it expects strong GDP growth in the coming quarters with the economic recovery gaining momentum. Out of the 12 lead economic and business indicators of QET (Quick Economic Trends), tracked by the industry body, nine have shown an uptick in sequential growth for the month of September 2021 as compared to six showing the uptrend in August 2021," ET. This expectation is supported by, "Engineering goods shipments crossed $9 billion for the third month in a row in September with 22 out of 25 top export destinations such as China, UK and UAE recording positive growth. Out of 33 engineering product categories, 27 witnessed positive growth in exports during September 2021 when compared with the same month last year," ET. Still, we should be realistic. "India should target a 'realistic' goal of $65 billion worth of textile exports in the next five years, industry body CII and global management consulting firm Kearney have said in a report, adding the government's aim of $100 billion of exports is a 'very steep goal'," ET. "India exported textiles worth $36 billion in 2019." "Spending on holidays, equities and white goods may take away the sheen from gold this festive season," ET. This is great news because India has to import gold using precious foreign exchange and this adds to our current account deficit (CAD), whereas spending on holidays within India and on buying white goods, which are large home appliances, MBN, will increase economic growth and create jobs. However, "Gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), rose by 22.58 percent to USD 34.6 billion (about Rs 2.54 lakh crore, or Rs 2.54 trillion) during 2020-21 due to increased domestic demand, according to the Commerce Ministry data," BS. People buy gold as a hedge against rising prices which means that the rupee buys less and less. "International trade is not a zero-sum game. India can't maximise its interests at the expense of others," wrote Prof Prabhash Ranjan. Tariffs have increased as "the simple average of India's tariffs that stood at 8.9 percent in 2010-11 has increased by almost 25 percent to 11.1 percent in 2020-21". "According to the WTO, from 2015 to 2019, India initiated 233 anti-dumping investigations," the highest in the world. The Customs Act has been changed so that the government can ban import or export of any good to prevent injury to the economy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given a "clarion call" to be "vocal for local", showing a disdain for imports and competition. "Increasing capex ratios in India will lift employment prospects, boosting income and consumption growth to create a virtuous cycle, broking firm Morgan Stanley said," Mint. "Sitting on healthy cash reserves and aided by stronger balance-sheets post Covid, India Inc is looking to step up its capital expenditure (capex) and investment plans," ET. "The Indian economy is leaving behind the shadow of the pandemic with consumer demand improving and supply constraints easing due to strong kharif  (monsoon) agricultural production and revival in manufacturing and services, according to the RBI," ET. So, everything is hunky-dory, as they say in India. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it has pared down India's potential growth forecast by 25 basis points to 6% due to the impact of the pandemic which hit investments and labour market badly," Mint. A little doubtful.