Tuesday, October 12, 2021

We should control our own markets. Why allow foreigners?

The 'Great Moderation' in the American Economy started in the 1990s and was characterized by "moderation in both output growth and inflation rates, and in their volatilities", wrote Prof VA Nageswaran. It resulted in "Big asset price bubbles, build-up of leverage and a widening of wealth inequality in the US." Post-covid, it has been followed by the 'Great Reset' with 'globalizing fuel shortages and soaring energy prices". "The price of diesel in India has crested Rs 100." Not true. Average crude oil prices were over $100 a barrel in 2011 and 2012, The Balance, but even then, the retail price of diesel for consumers stayed below Rs 60 per liter, trade brains. The reason for the high pump prices are the exorbitant taxes levied on fuel by both the Central and state governments, the Central taxes being higher, Deccan Herald. "West Texas Intermediate crude briefly changed hands for minus $40.32 a barrel last (in 2020) April," wrote David Fickling. "At present, there is still a near record 9 million daily barrels of spare capacity being held off the market among Opec+ grouping alone." "Oil majors and US independents, which traditionally have accounted for more than one-third of oilfield spending, are holding off for fear that Opec might open spigots and crush their projects again with crude from their low cost wells." "Early October, the government's food department revealed its plans to divert 17 million tonnes of surplus rice from its food stocks of 90 million tonnes to produce ethanol. This is in addition to the 2 million tonnes of sugar which is already being diverted to produce ethanol," wrote Sayantan Bera. "According to Niti Aayog, a successful biofuels programme can can save India $4 billion of about Rs 30,000 crore (Rs 300 billion) every year by lowering import of petroleum products." But, this could encourage farmers to grow more rice and sugar, "which currently use 70% of available irrigation water", leading to degradation of land, and diversion for producing biofuels could raise market prices of rice and sugar. "Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal cost. Predictions of $100 oil," CNN. "The circumstances are causing central banks and investors to worry. Rising energy prices are contributing to inflation, which already was a major concern as the global economy tries to shake off the lingering effects of Covid-19." India's central bank is nonchalant. "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Friday kept key policy interest rates and he accommodative monetary stance unchanged as expected," Economic Times (ET). Because inflation helps the government reduce its debt. As wages increase to compensate for rising prices so direct tax collections go up. From 1 April to 22 September, direct tax collections rose to Rs 5,70,568 crore (Rs 5.71 trillion), which was 27% more than the collection in the same period in 2019-20, before Covid, when it was Rs 4,48,976 crore, the Ministry of Finance said, Mint. Higher prices mean higher indirect taxes which are a percent of the sale price. Gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose to a 5-month high of Rs 1,17,010 crore, The Indian Express. Higher prices means a weaker currency which reduces the value of government debt, Kahler. As the rupee buys less it must fall against the US dollar. It fell to Rs 75.3550 against $1 at close on 11 October. That will increase prices of imports, especially oil, and add to higher prices all round. And, there is taper tantrum still to come, as in 2013. We can control our own markets. Why allow foreigners? 

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