Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Action plans on 60 new ideas. It's all happening.

"Our mobility-based estimate of GDP suggests the rate of output last fortnight was where it would have been had there been no Covid: 13% above the GDP of the fiscal year ending March 2020 (FY20)," wrote Neelkanth Misra. Though international travel is yet to start, passenger traffic on railways is still restricted, state government spending on infrastructure is restarting only now and car manufacturing is still down. "Sales of jewelry and consumer durables are seeing strong compounded growth over the same months in 2019, hotels and tourist locations have high occupancy, there is chaos and crowding at airports, heavy footfall at restaurants and people are queuing up to buy houses." "FMCG bellwether Hindustan Unilever (HUL) posted 9% growth in standalone net profit of Rs 2,187 crore (Rs 21.87 billion) in the second quarter ended September 30 as compared to Rs 2,009 crore (Rs 20.09 billion) in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, while sales grew by 11% to Rs 12,516 crore (Rs 11,276 crore last year)," TOI. However, total expenses rose by 12% to Rs 9,883 crore because of inflation, "which the company's CMD Sanjiv Mehta described as something 'not seen in many years'." "The Indian economy is leaving behind the shadow of the pandemic with consumer demand improving and supply constraints easing due to strong kharif (monsoon season, wikipedia) agricultural production and revival in manufacturing and services, according to RBI," ET. "Also, softer food prices are aligning headline inflation closer to the target of 5.3 percent for FY22." "Indian startups haven't had it so good in a long time. They raised nearly $11 billion in the July-September quarter, twice the money that they got during the same period last year, with fintech, edtech and SaaS (software-as-a-service) firms cornering nearly 50% of the funding," TOI. "Over 30 startups have turned unicorns this year so far, including two decacorns (valued at over $10 billion) -- Byju's and Paytm." "The Indian economy is poised for a repeat performance of growth last seen between 2003 and 2010 led by corporate deleveraging and profitability, lower bad assets and demand for housing, Jeffries said. India's growth averaged 8.5% to 9% between 2003 and 2010, up from the 5.5%-to-6% average before that," ET. "The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by $2.039 billion to $639.516 billion in the week ended October 8, according to RBI data," ET. Naturally, the stock markets are sizzling with the S&P BSE Sensex trading at 61,123.74 at this point in time, BSE "My view is that surely we will be around 100,000. The question is whether that number is three years away or is it five years away," asserted Nilesh Shah, MD and CEO of Envision Capital. "Markets are driven by three things -- money flow, sentiments and fundamentals," said Nilesh Shah, MD at Kotak AMC. All the three are positive. "So when there is a combination of three things, the market climbs the wall of worries." "So will there be corrections? Answer is undoubtedly yes. Is there likely to be a big crash like March 20? Most probably not." Not satisfied with this deluge of good news, "The Centre has sought 'action plans' from various ministries on 60 new ideas such as bringing down the 'cost of doing business' in India, replacing multiple environmental legislation with a single Environment Management Act, opening up beach and sand minerals mining to the private sector and indigenous manufacture of low-cost tablets to take education to poor children," ET. Why 60? Is it a sacred number? Why not 50 or 70 or even 100? Anyway, already India is booming. Multiplied 60 times it may zoom past Jupiter. The US and China must be quaking.        

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