Friday, October 29, 2021

Shackled by the global supply chain.

"A Harvard Business Review article this summer outlined how it had taken several months for a Massachusetts-based company, Shawmuts, to put up production capacity for N-95 masks because everything, from polypropylene fabric used to the industrial machines needed to make the fabric and assemble a mask with nose clamps etc. had to be imported from Germany and China," wrote Rahul Jacob. For hospital gowns, "The 'coalition' eventually included companies seemingly as different as a high-fashion firm in New York, a maker of climbing suits in Oregon and even a mattress company." Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a Make in India campaign in 2014 to increase growth in manufacturing by 12-14% per annum. so that manufacturing increases to 25% of GDP and creates 100 million new jobs, wikipedia. In June 2020, 20 Indian soldiers, including their commanding officer, were brutally murdered by Chinese soldiers in an unprovoked attack in Galwan Valley in Ladakh, ET. During the pandemic last year Modi called for 'Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan', which means 'Self-Reliant India Mission' to reduce our dependence on imports, wikipedia. Seems to have had the opposite effect. "According to the data from China's border agency General Administration of Customs" "Imports from China were up 51.5 percent from $45.17 billion during the first nine-month period of 2020 to $68.46 billion during the first nine-month period of 2021 while exports to China increased 21.6 percent from $15.31 billion to $21.91 billion during the January-September of 2020 and 2021 respectively. Over 50 percent growth in imports from China led to the growth in trade deficit with China to $46.55 billion from $29.86 billion during nine months," FE. "Industrialization has been essential to reducing poverty historically," wrote Prof Dani Rodrik. But, "We are now entering a new era in which industrialization will no longer be as potent in spreading the benefits of economy-wide productivity gains. Global trends in innovation have significantly reduced the potential of manufacturing industries to absorb low-skill workers." "All told, more than $700 billion has been pledged over the next decade to expand production capacity for the chips that run smartphones, power data centers, and one day will drive cars," ET.  Samsung Electronics Co. is "joining Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Intel Corp., Micron Technology Inc. and SK Hynix Inc. in a massive gamble that the world's appetite in electronics will continue unabated." Which means that "companies are hugely dependent on China in managing supply chains and thus choose to wish global geopolitical problems away. The second is that from Washington to New Delhi, grand plans for building 'resilient' supply chains and favoring domestic production are mostly made amid ignorance of how dense and complex supply chains are," Jacob. "As of June 2021, 90% of world's countries operated schools in some capacity, while in India schools remained shut," wrote Anu Aga, Vijay Kelkar & Raghunath Mashelkar. "Unesco estimates that our children have lost two months for every month they haven't attended school: that's 30 months of learning loss already." We are totally dependent on China. Forever, unless we educate our children. 

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