Thursday, October 28, 2021

Will someone please come clean?

During the pandemic, "Emerging markets which stimulated most aggressively got no payoff in a faster recovery, owing in part to the downsides of overindulging," wrote Ruchir Sharma. "Dividing top emerging markets into heavy and light spenders, and including both new government spending and central bank asset purchases", Sharma found, "Through the second quarter this year, the median recovery in the 11 biggest spenders amounted to 12% of GDP, compared to 19% in the 11 lightest spenders." India's stimulus package "amounted to 10% of GDP, mid-size compared to its peers. But its payoff for moderation was one of the strongest recoveries in emerging markets." According to others, India's stimulus package was nowhere near 10%. "New stimulus measures unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman (in May 2020) cost Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion), taking the actual fiscal impact of all the steps announced over the past few days to Rs 1.50 (Rs 1.50 trillion) or 0.75 percent of GDP, a report said," ET. At the time, global securities research firm Sanford Bernstein said that the stimulus package was a "lost opportunity", HT." "The government, keen to underplay the pain and damage, is pushing optimistic recovery projections, but the economy isn't out of the woods year," wrote Puja Mehra. "Economists across the board are also saying that government must find ways to spend more." In June, Sitharaman announced a "stimulus mini dose, which has become her trademark. The direct stimulus in the package adds up to 0.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP)." It was left to the Reserve Bank (RBI) to rescue the economy. The RBI has kept interest rate at a low of 4% since May last year, despite projecting a Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 5.3% for the present financial year and 5.2% for 2022-23, HT. High inflation would raise yields on government bonds as investors would demand higher returns to compensate for the loss in the value of the rupee. To reduce the cost of government borrowing the RBI conducted 'Operation Twist" in which it sold short term bonds while buying long term ones, Deepthi Mary Mathew. The RBI has also been conducting quantitative easing, under the disguise of 'Government Securities Acquisition Programme (G-SAP)', TIE. In June, the "RBI announced the transfer of Rs 99,122 crore (Rs 991.22 billion) surplus funds to the government for the nine-month period ended March 2021, which is nearly double of what was budgeted earlier", ET. For his sterling service, the government re-appointed Governor of RBI Shaktikanta Das for 3 more years or until further orders, DH. Loyalty may have rich personal rewards but, "Prices of items from tea, coffee and biscuits to toothpaste and electric components have risen 4% to 10% in the last quarter, while construction supplies, such as cement and sanitary ware, have added as much as a fifth", ET. Hence, while CPI inflation fell to 4.35% in September, core inflation is stuck at around 6%. As a remedy, "The RBI should let the rupee rally against the dollar to contain imported inflation coming in mainly from crude prices and help push exports, as the current account risks from rising oil price can be contained at 1.4 percent of GDP, according to a report," TOI. The rupee is already very overvalued. In 2007, one dollar would have bought Rs 40, poundsterling. In the 14 years since then, average rate of inflation in the US  has been below 2%, usinflationcalculator, while that in India would have be above 7%, inflation.eu. Since inflation compounds year on year the dollar/rupee exchange rate should be over 85, but one dollar is trading at Rs 74.78 this morning, xe. We are not as brilliant as the RBI but we will be at the receiving end if the rupee tanks. Will someone please come clean?          

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