Saturday, October 09, 2021

Moody's sees something we can't.

"Moody's Investors Service raised outlook on India's sovereign rating to 'stable' from 'negative' in a revision after nearly two years, eliminating the chances of a downgrade to junk status," Economic Times (ET). We are still one step above junk status, but stable, not wobbly. Worth celebrating. "The global rating agency cited receding financial sector risks, a broadening economic recovery, and rising vaccinations reducing the downside risks to growth from subsequent coronavirus infection waves in support of the upgrade." India's long term credit rating is at the lowest investment grade for all ratings agencies, Trading Economics. "With higher capital cushions and greater liquidity, banks and non-bank financial institutions pose much lesser risk to the sovereign than Moody's previously anticipated. And while risks stemming from a high debt burden and weak debt affordability remain, Moody's expects that the economic environment will allow for a gradual reduction of the general government fiscal deficit over the next few years, preventing further deterioration of the sovereign credit profile," Indian Express. "As many as 237 million (23.7 crore) people or one-fourth of the eligible beneficiaries have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in India, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said," Hindustan Times (HT). "Nearly 90% of people in Mumbai are estimated to have Covid-19 antibodies, according to the civic body survey," Times of India (TOI). "The third wave of Covid-19 was unlikely to be as severe as the second and India was now in the endemic stage of the disease, eminent virologists said," TOI. "There are no takers in India for corporate notes with even a whiff of credit risk," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The situation in the international market is the exact opposite. Junk rated non-financial firms from India have scooped up a record $9 billion this year, almost three times the year-earlier period." "Still, policymakers in New Delhi and Mumbai would prefer fund-raising to take place locally. After all, they are running a fully stocked liquidity bar, with the surplus in the banking system ranging between $90 billion and $130 billion since end-June. It's a risky ploy." "As long as the rupee doesn't roll over, India will get some of the capital fleeing China. But love in the time of Evergrande isn't forever." "India's merchandise exports soared 21.35 percent to $33.44 billion in September 2021 compared to $27.56 billion in the same month last year," but, "On the other hand, merchandise imports also saw a huge jump 84.47 percent to $56.38 billion in September 2021 against $30.52 billion in September 2020." Merchandise exports from April-September 2021 was $197.11 billion, while merchandise imports in the same period was $275.92 billion. "The trade deficit in September 2021 was clocked at $22.94 billion, while it was $78.81 billion during April-September 2021," Business Today (BT). India's cryptocurrency market grew by 641% over the past year, just behind Pakistan whose market grew by 711%, said a report by Chainalysis, BT. "India's gold imports in September soared 658% from last year's lower base", to 91 tonnes, ET. Meanwhile, Mr Mukesh Ambani is now shoulder-to shoulder with Jeff Bezos as his wealth is now at $100.6 billion, moneycontrol, while Mr Gautam Adani and family earned Rs 10.02 billion per day over the last one year, ET. According to a Unesco report, 110,000 schools run with just one teacher and over 1.1 million teaching posts, most in rural areas, are lying vacant, TOI. Economy is improving, they say. But, for whom?   

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