Monday, October 11, 2021

Impossible to be grand and logical at the same time.

"The eight core sectors -- refinery products, electricity, steel, coal, crude oil, natural gas, cement and fertilizers -- comprise 40.27% of the Index of Industrial Production. According to data, core sector output rose by 11.6% in August 2021 over August 2020," wrote Jagadish Shettigarh & Pooja Misra. "The core sector is the real anchor supporting the rest of the sectors, with strong forward and backward linkages." "Rising core sector output reflects greater production and economic activity." "The economy has recovered sharply from the traumatic April-June quarter, when Covid's second wave caused lockdowns and shutdowns," agreed SA Anklesaria Aiyar. "Compared with the pre-Covid period two years ago, total tax revenue has grown at a compound rate of 16% per year, corporate tax at 23%, excise duty at 34%, and GST at 6%." Consequently, fiscal deficit may come in at 5.8% of GDP, instead of 6.8% of GDP predicted in the Budget. The Indian economy is revering swiftly from the "ravaging waves" of Covid-19, according to the Finance Ministry's Monthly Economic Review. "Sustained and robust growth in agriculture, sharp rebound in manufacturing and industry, and buoyant revenues suggest that the economy is progressing well, the September review said," Economic Times. The RBI echoed the Finance Ministry in its September survey. "The current situation index is the highest since May 2020 and the future index is highest since November 2020, the survey data showed," Times of India (TOI). "Overall, the consumer confidence index improved to 57.7 in September from 48.6 in July," and, "The future expectations index moved to 107 in September from 104 in July." In its latest meeting on 8 October, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank (RBI) "kept policy interest rates and the accommodative monetary stance unchanged as expected to ensure a durable economic recovery", ET. This is exactly the same thing that Governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das said after the August policy meeting, wrote Mythili Bhusnurmath. "Meanwhile, core inflation remains 'sticky'," and rising commodity prices will add to cost. "The danger is that when the descent is delayed, as at present, it may not have the luxury of a smooth glide path. It may be compelled to force land." "Recall that the RBI had adopted a similar baby steps approach a decade ago while withdrawing the measures it took to offset the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. In hindsight, the then governor, D Subbarao, has later said that the central bank perhaps should have hastened a bit," wrote Aparna Iyer. The reason for similarity in their actions is that the careers of both governors D Subbarao and Shaktikanta Das followed similar glide paths, in that both were IAS officers and rose to the rank of Finance Secretary in the Central government, the only difference being that Subbarao has a PhD in Economics while Das has a DLit in history. Politicians and civil servants in India have a fervent belief in low interest rate as a magical solution to weak economic growth. As the then Finance Minister P Chidambaram said, "If the government has to walk alone to face the challenge of growth then we will walk alone," NDTV. And, they have a tendency to compare with the US, completely ignoring the fact that average inflation in India over the last 20 years would be around 7%, eu, while the average inflation in the US over the same period was less than 2%, The Balance. Seems that the entire government suffers from 'delusion of grandeur'. Where it comes from is a mystery.   

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