Sunday, March 01, 2020

We are getting what we wished for.

"Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the 'steadiness' in the economy is a good sign, soon after the official data put the December quarter GDP growth at 4.7%." "Sitharaman said the government is 'pushing the banks like never before' to lend as much as possible across all categories , including retail, home and agriculture segments. She, however, said the government wants to learn from the experiences of 2008-09 and ensure that there are no non-performing assets piled up for later years." If you lend you have to take the risk of default. "An additional 4% of outstanding corporate borrowings from banks, translating roughly into Rs 2.54 lakh crore (trillion) could tip into default over the next three years if the pace of economic expansion doesn't pick up sufficiently." A higher rate of GDP growth is essential. "The road towards a $5 trillion economy leads through the rapid expansion of India's exports," wrote Sharma and Goyal. India has increased its share of the world's non-oil exports from 0.6% to 1.6% between 1990 and 2018. Neighboring countries have done much better. India's economy is too dependent on domestic demand and exports are below potential, said World Bank Chief Economist for the South Asia region Hans Timmer. "I think, the most important thing is the understanding that you need export-led growth because that's where you increase productivity when you compete in international markets; that's where you gain knowledge by interacting with competitors and with customers abroad. And so, it is that mindset." he said. Unfortunately, "India's exports fell 1.7% in January, the sixth straight monthly decline, while imports dropped for the 10th month in a row, pushing up trade deficit to a seven month high of $15.2 billion." "Once growing at over 20%, powering India's robust economic growth, India's exports have been stuck at around $300 billion for the last one decade, driven by loss of export competitiveness and volatility in global markets," wrote Asit Ranjan Misra. "Faced with the falling fortunes of Indian exporters and rising imports, especially from its northern neighbor China, India has increasingly turned to import substitution by curbing what it calls non-essential imports." This is counter-productive because, "Expensive imports after all make even our exports costlier since much what we export is based on imported inputs," wrote Nikita Kwatra. Despite efforts to increase exports, the procedures for imports "ironically, are better than those for exports", according to the Economic survey 2019-10. "The annual GDP growth can be revised up to six times." Usually upwards. But with the Coronavirus bringing the global economy to a limp India's production is also being cut. Import substitution by virus. We did wish for it.

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